Who destroyed our hope?

[Kinetic]

India along with US, Japan and others is feeling the heat of China's rise! But where the source of all these heat? Military? Diplomacy? Soft power? Nops. Its Chinese economy. China is about $ 10 trillion economy while the largest in terms of PPP, bravo!

Whether its space race, military power, Olympics, strategic bases abroad, soft power, global dominance everything is fuelled by economy and the $$$ you have! The Chinese have done the most wonderful job here. Even after becoming $ 10 trillion economy still they are growing at 7-8%!!!!!!!! Simply awesome!!!! Thats the real power.

Now while India was in better situation few decades ago, why didn't we grow somewhere even near to China? I tried to find out the same.....

1) License Raj of Nehru: This intolerable decision of our beloved ex PM has single handedly destroyed the backbone of our industry! This remained at the core of corruption and pulled back the economic growth in the country. After China started reform in early 70s, India also started slowly but again another visionary came, Morarji Desai! Again we were pulled back to the line poverty!!

2) Nepotism (Raj gharana regime at Centre): We repeatedly selected people for the top post who had birth right not the capability to lead India to a poverty free country, to lead India to real independence.

3) Rampant corruptions: Limitless, wholesale corruption from top to bottom! Again this has been fuelled by nepotism and license raj.


We did something good in the 90s and early 2000s but again extreme corruption and vote bank politics by UPA-2 has totally destroyed the backbone of economy.

In 2004 Chinese's economy was same as India in 2014 now what is funny is today's news PwC said India may become a $ 10 trillion economy by 2034!!! Thats 20 years away man!!!!! China took only 10 years.

Now whether its a new missile from DRDO, a new ultra modern hospital coming out in sub urban Mumbai, whether an Indian in space, whether we have a new 8 lane road, a modern airport/railway station everything comes from money!!! Now letting apart all these old bull shit can Modi govt take strong appropriate decisions? Will the state govts stand by Modi? Will Indians ever understand that independence is not in strikes and politics but in seeing everyone is happy atleast they can have basic amenities like food, shelter, hospitals and social securities.




How? Simple but very difficult choices!!!

1) Ban anyone from becoming MLA/MP for more than years.
2) Very Strong anti-corruption watchdog and exemplary punishments.
3) Fast decision making by the govt officials, no red tape. They should apply online ticketing system.

I think Modi has nothing to lose, he can make a few decisions and become the father of new India or do like what others did and become another MMS after 10 years.

We have to make a choice about fate of our 1.3 billion people!!!

 

[he-man]

Nothing of that sort is required.

They just need to pass the GST act,amend land bill and modify nrega.Do this and we will be more than 8% in a couple of years.This year is 5.7(expectation) and it will be close to 7% in 3 years.Anything beyond that will require more reforms.


Last of all stop blaming nehru,he did well for a prime minister of a newly freed nation.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Nothing of that sort is required.

They just need to pass the GST act,amend land bill and modify nrega.Do this and we will be more than 8% in a couple of years.This year is 5.7(expectation) and it will be close to 7% in 3 years.Anything beyond that will require more reforms.


Last of all stop blaming nehru,he did well for a prime minister of a newly freed nation.

GST alone will add 0.9-1.7% of GDP growth rate a year!! If 5.7% is predicted this year with absolutely no Modi/reform influence then India could be seeing 8.4% within the next 3 years (I am told that GST is unlikely to be implemented until 2015/16 but more knowledgable members on here). A few more minor reforms here and there, add NREGA and really push "make in India" and I sincerely believe India can see 10% GDP growth rates within 5 years. From there the growth will be sustained because investors will flock to India in an attempt to jump on the band wagon and the effects will compound and snowball just like China experienced.

This is not far-fetched at all, now just need the GoI to deliver what they promised.

 

[cirr]

China will be a 12.5 trillion USD economy in 2015 calculating its GDP using the SNA 2008 the way the US and other so-called advanced economies do。

 

[cirr]

And if and when India is a size of what China is today，you can be damn sure that China、the US、Japan etc will all “gang up” to contain the rise of India。

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

GST alone will add 0.9-1.7% of GDP growth rate a year!! If 5.7% is predicted this year with absolutely no Modi/reform influence then India could be seeing 8.4% within the next 3 years (I am told that GST is unlikely to be implemented until 2015/16 but more knowledgable members on here). A few more minor reforms here and there, add NREGA and really push "make in India" and I sincerely believe India can see 10% GDP growth rates within 5 years. From there the growth will be sustained because investors will flock to India in an attempt to jump on the band wagon and the effects will compound and snowball just like China experienced.

This is not far-fetched at all, now just need the GoI to deliver what they promised.

China is the only country in the history of the world, that has achieved sustained average double-digit growth for three decades in a row.

No other country has done that, not in recorded history.

China's double-digit growth phase was an anomaly, and fueled by a very specific set of internal conditions within China itself.

Not to mention a world where we could easily seize the planet's export market with little resistance, or the era of debt-fueled consumer spending and credit just before the credit crunch.

India is facing a different world now, where they will have to fight Southeast Asia for every single export order, and the end of the era of cheap credit, which left permanent scars in the psyche of a generation after the 2008 credit crunch. I don't see anything in India's internal or external conditions which makes it likely to repeat the anomaly of double-digit growth for three decades, like China did.

 

[Kinetic]

Nothing of that sort is required.

They just need to pass the GST act,amend land bill and modify nrega.Do this and we will be more than 8% in a couple of years.This year is 5.7(expectation) and it will be close to 7% in 3 years.Anything beyond that will require more reforms.

These will have minimum affect on our overall economic power if if people are not educated to know what is democracy.

Last of all stop blaming nehru,he did well for a prime minister of a newly freed nation.

lol This is BS. He was a great man but just destroyed the economic backbone and precious time in the early years and let that concepts go on for next three decades. Only that, he did nothing else. And the result is India still one of the poorest.

 

[thesolar65]

@Kinetic @he-man

I agree and disagree with some points, but one thing I must tell in support of him is about the Land Act (nowhere in the world you will find out). The basic is that every person of India must have a piece of land in his/her name. Though we have not achieved that, every successive Govt. is at least trying.

 

[lavenge lavenge]

Nothing of that sort is required.

They just need to pass the GST act,amend land bill and modify nrega.Do this and we will be more than 8% in a couple of years.This year is 5.7(expectation) and it will be close to 7% in 3 years.Anything beyond that will require more reforms.


Last of all stop blaming nehru,he did well for a prime minister of a newly freed nation.

I would say that Sonia's imported regime did more harm to India at a very crucial juncture than even most brutal enemy could do to India.They screwed on every front.

They appointed an environmentalist as Environment minister which resulted in a curious situation where India, even after having third largest coal reserve has to import from Australia; a situation where India with 4th largest Iron-ore reserve has to export Iron-Ore to China and import Steel from China, why? Because Steel plants in India did not get environmental clearance.

In Environment ministry, guiding motto was: Block!Block!Block!

We had a Defence minister who loved to ban companies at the drop of hat, even on basis of frivolous complains. End result: Most of defence companies are banned in India and most tenders have been reduced to single bidder status.

Defence ministry motto: Ban!Ban!Ban!

It brought a Land acquisition act so atrocious that it has completely halted all land acquisition, even that for industry. It has such a quixotic clauses like no more than 5% of irrigated land could by acquired in each district. I mean what the fück! How difficult is it to understand that industries has tendency to agglomerate and Industrial districts like NOIDA would need more land for Industries?


It's Finance ministry imposed retrospective taxation which scared daylight out of Investors.

Natural gut instinct of congress is to impose license raj. 1991 reforms were forced down it's throat be a right wing PM ( Rao, He paid for that with his premiership ) and IMF. Unless forced by extraneous circumstances, it will follow License-Quota raj policies.

No other country has done that, not in recorded history.

Your Economic history is weak. Sustained double digit growth, even those that would put China's growth to shame, has been a norm in history. Britain achieved it during Industrial revolution, US during gilded age, Spain during South american conquests, and Germany from 1870-1910 period.


While India may find it difficult to grow beyond 8-9% due to recession in west and Credit crunch, your argument regarding Chinese exceptionalism is borne out of your ignorance.

Fast paced growth is a characteristic of underperforming economy whenever the condition holding it back vanish.

India is facing a different world now, where they will have to fight Southeast Asia for every single export order, and the end of the era of cheap credit, which left permanent scars in the psyche of a generation after the 2008 credit crunch. I don't see anything in India's internal or external conditions which makes it likely to repeat the anomaly of double-digit growth for three decades, like China did.

India's economy has a natural growth rate of 8%. Till now the current government has not implemented a single reform but economy has raced to 6% ( from 4.7% during past regime) just because current government has stopped molesting businessmen. Last government of India was a socialist government and it indulged in incessant vilification of businessmen.

And government is bringing GST tax in next 2 years which would add a1.5% on average to growth rate by simplifying tax structure and removing taxes like octroi which increase transport time by 30% percent due to multiple collection points. And this is independent of global condition as this is something completely internal to India.

Even if GoI does not bring any more reform, India would still grow at 7% YoY. With other reforms, India could easily grow at 8-9%, independent of external condition.

 

[anant_s]

GST alone will add 0.9-1.7% of GDP growth rate a year!! If 5.7% is predicted this year with absolutely no Modi/reform influence then India could be seeing 8.4% within the next 3 years (I am told that GST is unlikely to be implemented until 2015/16 but more knowledgable members on here). A few more minor reforms here and there, add NREGA and really push "make in India" and I sincerely believe India can see 10% GDP growth rates within 5 years. From there the growth will be sustained because investors will flock to India in an attempt to jump on the band wagon and the effects will compound and snowball just like China experienced.

This is not far-fetched at all, now just need the GoI to deliver what they promised.

GST is still stuck up states having differences with revenue sharing. It last date of implementation was April 2013, which has long been missed. Estimates say India will gain close to 15 billion USD by implementation as it widens the tax net while actually reducing the tax burden. It also simplifies the complex central and state tax regimes, thereby improving the overall business environment.

Also India needs to improve its agriculture sector big time.

While our service sector is in pretty good shape and industry and manufacturing receiving support from Government (Make in India etc) and mining and power sector seeing recent reforms and policy clarity, it guess if agriculture sector that supports a major chunk of population, we can see significant growth in GDP.

I would suggest following points:
1. Improve Irrigation. River linking and improved canal network is one to major steps that can help in this regard. It is quite dis-heartening that even after more than 6 decades of independence, most of agriculture is still Rain fed.
2. Improve Rural banking. Provide financial assistance along with technical know-how in a focused and need based manner.
3. De-regulate the agriculture sales. We all know how (&why) every once in a while vegetable prices shoot up owing to hoarders and middlemen having an iron grip over supply. This leads to farmers not getting due worth of their labor, while consumer paying heavily and middlemen pocketing the profits. This also is important for controlling food inflation which btw is also one of the priorities for RBI.
4. Improve storage. We still lack proper storage facilities for perishable produce as well as grains. FCI responsible for grain banks is woefully short of storage space and lesser said about cold storage facilities, the better. Govt. must allow private sector to participate, while having a regulatory body to oversee any unfair practices.

If agriculture can start contributing in a much more aggressive manner, not only will it super-charge economic growth, but also solve several social problems.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Your Economic history is weak. Sustained double digit growth, even those that would put China's growth to shame, has been a norm in history. Britain achieved it during Industrial revolution, US during gilded age, Spain during South american conquests, and Germany from 1870-1910 period.

You are wrong, no other country in the world has sustained an average double-digit growth rate for three decades in a row.

And here is the proof, from the Economist:

China’s future growth: Even dragons tire | The Economist

THE announcement this week that China’s economy had grown by 7.3% in the third quarter year-on-year was widely seen as marking the country’s “new normal” of slower growth. It was well below the roughly 10% pace China had averaged from 1980 until two years ago.

Given this tendency, China’s long spell of breakneck growth—of more than 6% a year since 1977—already stands out. It is, the authors reckon, the longest such spell “quite possibly in the history of mankind, but certainly in the data”.

Our growth since 1977 has been the longest such spell in the "history of mankind".

The only thing India has similar to China is the overall population, nothing else. That's why India is only growing at 4-5% right now. Not very impressive, maybe slightly less than the average for other developing countries.

 

[conworldus]

The only use for gdp is dick measuring contest here on PDF.

Both China and India are choking in smog. Qualities of life still suck. The rich move to the west for better life.

These are more important than gdp.

 

[SrNair]

Who destroyed our hope?
Well I would say we Indians destroyed our hope.Our democracy destroyed our hope.
Comparing China and India is like comparing Apple and Orange.Chinese political system is entirely different than others.Look at the POSCO project in Orissa .The project was concieved around decade ago.Still GoI is struggling with
land acquistion.But in China if the govt under CCP determined for a project like this,they will come one day and will bulldoze entire settlements in that area. This is not gonna happen in India because we are democratic.

Blaming Nehru is not a good tendency .Since we are a democratic nation we caouldnt initiate a cultural revolution in our nation like they did in China.Chinese have one language and ethinicity.
But India is a diversified country.Where we should accomodate useless and burdens like Mamata Banerjee or Mulayam Singh.
Leaders having mentality and attitude like that of Jayalalithaa,Modi ,Chauhan etc are absolutely less.

 

[lavenge lavenge]

You are wrong, no other country in the world has sustained an average double-digit growth rate for three decades in a row.

And here is the proof, from the Economist:

China’s future growth: Even dragons tire | The Economist



Our growth since 1977 has been the longest such spell in the "history of mankind".

The only thing India has similar to China is the overall population, nothing else. That's why India is only growing at 4-5% right now. Not very impressive, maybe slightly less than the average for other developing countries.

Only thing that Article proves is that the author of that article is an a ignoramus( most of journalists are )

Here is chart of Historical GDP figures.

How come countries which just had a silver of total GDP raced to corner larger chunks of global GDP pie, if not by a sustained high growth rate vis-a-vis other countries.

​

And this chart does not do full justice to situation as it does not show small time periods where economy of these countries had explosive growth.


Edit: BTW, Indian Economy is growing at 6% and now that India has a single part government with free market ideology, reforms are inevitable.

 

[SrNair]

You are wrong, no other country in the world has sustained an average double-digit growth rate for three decades in a row.

And here is the proof, from the Economist:

China’s future growth: Even dragons tire | The Economist



Our growth since 1977 has been the longest such spell in the "history of mankind".

The only thing India has similar to China is the overall population, nothing else. That's why India is only growing at 4-5% right now. Not very impressive, maybe slightly less than the average for other developing countries.

Just check the GDP growth rate of India 2005,06, and 07.Then if you have confidence about it then tellme.