Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia? (The Economist)

[nahtanbob]

Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia?​

Both countries are pioneering new ways to get rich in a troubled world​

Mar 29th 2023

If You are looking for growth opportunities among the world’s 20 biggest economies, two stand out: India and Indonesia. The Asian giants, with a combined population of 1.7bn, are forecast by the imf to be the two fastest-growing top-20 economies in 2023, and over the next five years. Both are pioneering strategies for getting richer in an era of de-globalisation, fraught geopolitics, automation and energy shifts, even as they seek a political formula that wins elections and avoids social unrest. Whether they succeed matters not just for their people and the investors betting many billions of dollars on them. It will also set an example for scores of other countries searching for new and reliable ways to develop in the 2020s and beyond.

For decades developing countries have followed a trusted formula for growing wealthier. Move workers from fields to more productive manufacturing jobs in cities, have them make goods for export, and watch the rapid formalisation of the economy. It worked in South Korea and Taiwan. In China it saw 800m people escape poverty. But today this scheme no longer works well. Many countries are rowdy democracies, not authoritarian states (as South Korea and Taiwan were when they industrialised). Protectionism challenges export-led growth. Factories use more robots.

At first glance, India and Indonesia have much in common. Both are led by charismatic leaders first elected in 2014, and both will hold elections next year. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, and Joko Widodo (widely known as Jokowi), Indonesia’s president, cut their teeth in local politics and have a reputation for getting things done. They run vast (India has 1.4bn people and Indonesia 280m) and relatively young countries with myriad ethnicities and languages.

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Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia?

Both countries are pioneering new ways to get rich in a troubled world

www.economist.com

Indonesia is in a sweet spot with much more natural resources on a per captia basis. Indonesia must really screw up badly to fall behind India. Or India has to put on a sizzling show for decades to put Indonesia behind for good

 

[Indos]

nIndonesia is in a sweet spot with much more natural resources on a per captia basis. Indonesia must really screw up badly to fall behind India. Or India has to put on a sizzling show for decades to put Indonesia behind for good

After getting hit by financial crisis in 1997-1999, our strategist change strategy and prefer lower growth but more sustainable rather than speedy growth but could end up with fragile economic fundamental.

We can see on numerous prudent policy like limiting budget deficit into below 3 percent of GDP, increasing bank own capital to avoid lack of liquidity when some major economic problem arises, and others.

 

[*Warrior*]

May be Indonesia due to export of Palm Oil,
Big Disadvantage for India will be huge population.

 

[Indos]

May be Indonesia due to export of Palm Oil,
Big Disadvantage for India will be huge population.

Indonesia’s Top 10 Exports​

1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$71 billion (24.3% of total exports)
2. Animal/vegetable fats, oils, waxes: $35.2 billion (12.1%)
3. Iron, steel: $27.8 billion (9.5%)
4. Electrical machinery, equipment: $14.6 billion (5%)
5. Vehicles: $11 billion (3.8%)
6. Ores, slag, ash: $10.3 billion (3.5%)
7. Other chemical goods: $8.5 billion (2.9%)
8. Footwear: $7.7 billion (2.7%)
9. Machinery including computers: $7 billion (2.4%)
10. Rubber, rubber articles: $6.4 billion (2.2%)

By value, Indonesia’s top 10 exports totaled over two-thirds (68.3%) of Indonesia’s total exports.

Ores, slag and ash was the fastest grower among the top 10 export categories, up by 62.2% from 2021 to 2022. Copper ores or concentrates propelled a large part of that increase.

In second place for improving export sales was mineral fuels including oil via a 57.5% gain led by coal and petroleum gases.

Indonesia’s shipments of the metals iron and steel posted the third-fastest gain in value, up by 33%.

Overall, Indonesia generated a US$54.5 billion trade surplus for 2022, expanding 51.9% from $35.9 billion in black ink one year earlier in 2021.

Indonesia’s Top Exports 2023

Indonesia’s top exports in 2023 a searchable database of 100 most valuable Indonesian exported goods plus trade balances by major products

www.worldstopexports.com

 

[Indos]

Will This Be the ‘Indian Century’? Four Key Questions

As India becomes the most populous country in the world, can it take advantage?

www.nytimes.com

 

[Bengal71]

Indonesia no doubt.

 

[Indos]

Indonesia no doubt.

Tomorrow our statistic biro will release Q1 economic growth and India usually release their data in the end of the month. We will likely know it which one is the fastest within G20 group this month. I expect whole 2023 economic growth of the two countries will not likely be too different with their Q1 economic growth.

I expect Indonesia can grow at 5.1 % in Q1 2023.

 

[Catalystic]

The way india is preparing for war against Pak, its like signing its death warrant anyway

And besides, if the WEF gets its way there won’t be much left. Look how they’re destroying countries one by one. The great reset doesn’t allow any country to grow when its time fir destruction

 

[Bengal71]

Tomorrow our statistic biro will release Q1 economic growth and India usually release their data in the end of the month. We will likely know it which one is the fastest within G20 group this month. I expect whole 2023 economic growth of the two countries will not likely be too different with its Q1 economic growth.

I expect Indonesia can grow at 5.1 % in Q1 2023.

Indonesia already has GDP per capita double that of India. If both countries grow at the same rate, Indonesia is likely to have a lead in the foreseeable future given both countries are developing couture and expected to achieve relatively high growth rate. Unless ofcourse if India can pull something like China in the ballpark of 11 to 13 percent growth rate.

 

[migflug]

Indonesia already has GDP per capita double that of India. If both countries grow at the same rate, Indonesia is likely to have a lead in the foreseeable future given both countries are developing couture and expected to achieve relatively high growth rate. Unless ofcourse if India can pull something like China in the ballpark of 11 to 13 percent growth rate.

The era of double digit growth is gone. We would be lucky if we can have a sustained 7% + growth over a longer period of time. India can never become a manufacturing powerhouse like china, but in certain sectors like Car, Smartphones,Textiles etc we can be among the top producers.
The only silver lining is that we have a very strong service sector.

Especially the future growth is supposed to come from Consulting which has been growing at 50% PA, apart from IT

 

[Indos]

Prediction
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Indonesia economy likely grew 4.95% on year in Q1, contracted vs quarter: Reuters poll​

Economy

Published May 02, 2023 09:32PM ET

By Sujith Pai

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Indonesian annual economic growth likely slowed to its weakest in more than a year in January-March and shrank on a quarterly basis as lower commodity prices hit exports and higher interest rates restricted domestic demand, a Reuters poll found.

Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 4.95% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to the median forecast of 23 economists polled April 26-May 2. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts ranged from 4.23% to 5.20%.

The economy is also forecast to have contracted quarter-on-quarter for the first time in a year, by 1.0%, based on a smaller sample of 11 economists. That follows 0.36% growth in the October-December period.

The data will be released on May 5.

"GDP growth slowed in y/y terms in the final quarter of last year and we think that weakness continued into Q1. Lower commodity prices have weighed heavily on exports," noted Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.

"Looking ahead, we expect GDP growth to slow...as weak external demand and tighter monetary policy drag on output."

Growth was forecast to average 4.9% this year and 5.0% next, a recent separate Reuters poll found, slightly lower than the International Monetary Fund's estimates of 5.0% and 5.1%.

Exports from the resource-rich country rose to a record high last year on soaring global commodity prices, but shipments have gradually slowed on cooling global demand.

Exports dropped 11.33% in March from a year earlier to $23.5 billion, compared with 4.44% growth in February.

"As the commodity boom recedes, growth moderates and support for Indonesia's external and fiscal positions also diminishes," wrote Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ.

"It will be challenging for Indonesia to defy the global growth slowdown, but resilient domestic demand will help offer some buffer."

Indonesia economy likely grew 4.95% on year in Q1, contracted vs quarter: Reuters poll By Reuters

Indonesia economy likely grew 4.95% on year in Q1, contracted vs quarter: Reuters poll

www.investing.com

 

[Bengal71]

The era of double digit growth is gone. We would be lucky if we can have a sustained 7% + growth over a longer period of time. India can never become a manufacturing powerhouse like china, but in certain sectors like Car, Smartphones,Textiles etc we can be among the top producers.
The only silver lining is that we have a very strong service sector.

Especially the future growth is supposed to come from Consulting which has been growing at 50% PA, apart from IT

I don't know if the era is gone for sure, nobody does, until someone pulls it.

 

[CallSignMaverick]

India is targeting $2 trillion in exports by 2030, $900 billion seems likely in 2023.

India's exports likely to touch $900 bln in 2023/24 -exporters

India’s exports of goods and services could touch $900 billion in the current financial year, up from $770 billion in the previous year, keeping resilient despite global headwinds, a top official of a grouping of exporters said.

www.reuters.com

 

[migflug]

I don't know if the era is gone for sure, nobody does, until someone pulls it.

Well the last 15 yrs suggest so, even china had 10% growth in 2010 and after that 6-8%, before than it was easily crossing 10+% between 02-07. The 2008 global financial crisis shook the very foundation of unbridled globalization. Since than the global growth has came down from 4.5% in 2000s to sub 3% between 10-20. Even Indian during 00-10 used to grow 8-9.5% in those super high growth years, but since than has levelled to 6-8%. This decade it is forecasted that global economy growth will sink to 2-3%, and 6-8% growth will be among the fastest. A direct dip of 2-3% from 20 yrs ago.

 

[Progressive1]

Indonesia has way higher ceiling when it comes to living standards for general population , india will keep stuck in lower middle income trap, with large swathes of pops being extremely poor.