What's your prediction after 2014 in Afghanistan?

[Hyperion]

Dude, TTP is nothing without NDS funding / sanctuary.... once Afghanistan falls, TTP is gone.... no sanctuary for them.

Trust me kid, I predicted this long time back.... just enjoy the movie..... the only thing I'm interested in is to find SherMalang kind and have a cordial meeting with them.... I'll keep my 2015 schedule all empty.....


After settling Afghanistan.... it's time for Saudia & Iran.

Pakistan might be forced to annex Afghanistan if there is full withdrawal of Western forces just to prevent TTP criss border attacks.

 

[Aamna14]

lol...$h1t story my friend.

@Topic I think Pakistan should build a wall across Pak-Afghan border & close it for ever. Pakistan will become calm & peaceful after this.
With out shutting the border & controlling the cross border movement, no operation will be successful.

I agree.

 

[GR!FF!N]

I predict a decade long Civil war.but unlike 90s,Talib willn't get upper hand if "Funds for AF" flows properly.ANA is large enough to whip Talib dogs.but they need to evolve their tactics quickly,and I fear that they might learn that after loss of many lives.Counter Terrorism isn't so easy when "Supply Line" of Terrorists is open.we tackled it with much difficulty.but one advantage of theirs over us will be use of Air Power.they're buying CAS aircraft which might serve them good.but they need a lot of hardware-Tanks,Arty,Helo,AFV,MPV along with many others.their main worry is how to provide these to its troops within such a short time.

 

[Hiptullha]

There will be a stalemate, because I do not see the Taliban enjoying Pakistani or Arab state support as in the 90s.

Are we sure about this? Arabs, specifically the Saudis are supporting the Syrian Rebels in order to counter Iranian influence. When the US leaves, Iran will try to expand their sphere of influence into Afghanistan, which will probably end up with another conflict between the Iranian-supported forces and the Saudi-supported forces.

 

[F117]

Are we sure about this? Arabs, specifically the Saudis are supporting the Syrian Rebels in order to counter Iranian influence. When the US leaves, Iran will try to expand their sphere of influence into Afghanistan, which will probably end up with another conflict between the Iranian-supported forces and the Saudi-supported forces.

I think there will be a residual NATO force to prevent the state from collapsing and to keep outsiders from meddling in Afghanistan.

It remains to be seen whether Saudi Arabia has the courage to act against America. Historically they have never done that. And in Syria they have the approval of the US for arming certain rebel factions.

But I have no doubt that "rich individuals" from the Persian Gulf emirates will pour lots of money on the Taliban in the near future.

 

[Hiptullha]

It remains to be seen whether Saudi Arabia has the courage to act against America. Historically they have never done that. And in Syria they have the approval of the US for arming certain rebel factions.

Saudi's dominance in the region is due to the support the US have provided them. Millions of petro-dollars, guaranteed protection and countless other benefits have helped them assert themselves and spread their ideology in the ME. It's not that the Saudi is scared of the US and if it will act against them, it's that the Saudis NEED the US.

 

[A.Rafay]

9- Pak army will be eating most of the budget, there will be economic collapse. Army will take over permenantly. To crush taliban, pak army will drop nukes on kandahar, khost and waziristan. Pashtuns will go into rebellion.
10- America would declare pakistan threat to the world. India and NATO would invade pakistan. Pakistan would drop nukes on cities of india. India will drop nukes on pakistani cities. China will declare war against america. Third world war will start. Zaid hamid will be captured alive by india.

cant stop laughing on this pridiction!

 

[slapshot]

Talban will be back in power after NATO withdrawal.

 

[Sher Malang]

Nothing much the fight will go on for another decade, since the areas handed over to ANSF they are cleansed from insurgents even some valleys which have never been under any government control from last 3 decades!! economic situation will improve and will be dependent on the next president we will be having more than 70% literate young population who will lead the afterward but you guys will see these puppets in such condition more often than now for some more time:

Personally I am worried for Pakistan coz 2014 seems more bloody and politically unstable for Pakistan than Afghanistan and it will definitely be disastrous for us if Pakistan's major cities fall in the hands of Taliban and also the BLA part I missed here.

 

[RAMPAGE]

1- Taliban-ANSF war will continue, both sides would suffer larger casaulties. Taliban will also engage ANA in open battles along with usual guerralla tactics. Due to lack of air support that NATO used to provide, afghan army will suffer more casaulties then today.
2- Taliban will be unable to occupy any city. Rural areas of south and eastern afghanistan will be taliban territories. They will be unable to have control over any non-pashtun area.
3- Pakistan will stop supporting haqqani network and quetta shura, N.waziristan will be cleared. Haqqani network would suffer a great loss in their power and capabilities and would quickly lose their control over their strongholds in the east. Hizb e islami will be powerless on its own so they will joined hands with taliban and will conduct joint operations along with haqqani group and mainstream taliban.
4- India will provide great help to afghan governament and its army. India's influence in Afghanistan will increased greately after NATO withdrawl.
5- Pakistan will conduct air strikes in kunar and nooristan, the sanctuaries of TTP after NW is cleared. Afghan taliban would assist TTP in attacking border check posts of army and FC, in return TTP will provide men power , suicide bombers and weapons to them in their war against afghan army. TTP will establish new sanctuaries in khost and paktiya, haqqani network will assist them in attacks on pakistani security forces in waziristan.

7-Due to lack of suficient funds and lack of morale. The tajik, hazara and uzbek soldiers would go to their respective warlords. Weaponry of ANSF will go to non-pashtun warlords. A true civil war will start, taliban will suffer heavier casaulties by trying to advance beyond their territories.
8- There will be negotiations between northern warlords and taliban. They will agree on divison of afghanistan. Pakistan will strongely oppose the division. Afghan taliban will be now ruling pashtunistan, they will make claims on tribal areas and quetta. The war between taliban and pakistan will start.....pakistan will try to fence border but will failed to do so due due to attacks from taliban. Pakistan army will assemble more troops in FATA...but would loose control over most of the border regions along durand.
9- Pak army will be eating most of the budget, there will be economic collapse. Army will take over permenantly. To crush taliban, pak army will drop nukes on kandahar, khost and waziristan. Pashtuns will go into rebellion.
10- America would declare pakistan threat to the world. India and NATO would invade pakistan. Pakistan would drop nukes on cities of india. India will drop nukes on pakistani cities. China will declare war against america. Third world war will start. Zaid hamid will be captured alive by india.

ROFL

 

[pak-marine]

Kabul stays with Northern alliance , Talibans will have a strong presence and control in south and northeast . Basically they will be sandwiched between PA and ANA

 

[GURU DUTT]

After I watched this

makes me think I should do predictions.

Predictions above:

1. Tribes fight for control, power and autonomy. (divide and conquer)

2. Repeat of 90s scenario

3. Pashtuns infiltrate ANA and hands the army to Mullah Omar

4. Elections between Taliban and Afgh govt

5. Taliban will be defeated completely by 2015.

6. Regional spillovers in Pakistan and maybe Iran borders during Afghanista civil war.

7. Pakistan invasion of Pashun cities to support Taliban.

8. Secret Pakistan-Taliban negotiation demands such as massive funds and providing weapons to maintain border improvement and diplomatic ties for their interest to weaken ANA because of India.

9. ANA vs Taliban forever.

10. ANA wins civil war.

Anymore accurate predictions?

apart from that thigs will be summed up in three words "anarchy & ceos"

1. for afghans "specially pashtoons" war is the cottage industry since there recorded or known history
having said that it will not be cake walk for taliban this time as talibans right hand(pakistans support) will be tied behind the back as under no circumstances PA can make USA/NATO unhappy and covert help will be there but since ANA and its intelegence and logistical reach is well rehearsed and trained (both by india &USA) & since have a very good experience with taliban battle tactiks they this time will be almost like what "wharemark" was to ever invading/attacking allied forces

2. USA is going no where as it will have 15000+ soldiers stationed in afghanistan even after 2014 and now have new better drones that can attack any lace in afghanistan even if they take off from there floating bses @ super carriers in persian gulf

3. india will eventually roll back its afghan oprations to Iran-aghghan border areas but still will be in afghanistan as afghans (tajiks,hazaras, pashtoons you name it) trust and respect indians way way much more than they hate americans or pakistanies

4.pakistan will be the biggest looser in all this as it will have to bear the brunt of revived milltancy in its birder districts & new uncontrolable smugling of small arms , opium and drugs besides the over zelous afghans who will pres harder for an unified "pakhootinstan/afghanistan" as afghanistan even under "pakistan friendli" taliban never gave pakistan & british made durand line "recognition"

baki lage raho

 

[Fracker]

1) USA Flew & Mullah Umer come back on the scene
2) Security pact between Afghanistan-Pakistan & Taliban (under Mullah Umer) which allows Taliban become also part of the government.
3) Massive Operation Against militancy in the region while anti-state actors in Afghanistan & Pakistan will still continue to fuel them by giving money.
4) ANA region clear up from militancy, and only criminals hideouts are still there.