What's your prediction after 2014 in Afghanistan?

[Shah9]

After I watched this

makes me think I should do predictions.

Predictions above:

1. Tribes fight for control, power and autonomy. (divide and conquer)

2. Repeat of 90s scenario

3. Pashtuns infiltrate ANA and hands the army to Mullah Omar

4. Elections between Taliban and Afgh govt

5. Taliban will be defeated completely by 2015.

6. Regional spillovers in Pakistan and maybe Iran borders during Afghanista civil war.

7. Pakistan invasion of Pashun cities to support Taliban.

8. Secret Pakistan-Taliban negotiation demands such as massive funds and providing weapons to maintain border improvement and diplomatic ties for their interest to weaken ANA because of India.

9. ANA vs Taliban forever.

10. ANA wins civil war.

Anymore accurate predictions?

 

[SarthakGanguly]

After I watched this

makes me think I should do predictions.

Predictions above:

1. Tribes fight for control, power and autonomy. (divide and conquer)

2. Repeat of 90s scenario

3. Pashtuns infiltrate ANA and hands the army to Mullah Omar

4. Elections between Taliban and Afgh govt

5. Taliban will be defeated completely by 2015.

6. Regional spillovers in Pakistan and maybe Iran borders during Afghanista civil war.

7. Pakistan invasion of Pashun cities to support Taliban.

8. Secret Pakistan-Taliban negotiation demands such as massive funds and providing weapons to maintain border improvement and diplomatic ties for their interest to weaken ANA because of India.

9. ANA vs Taliban forever.

10. ANA wins civil war.

Anymore accurate predictions?

Your analysis is close.
Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad will remain under the Central Government control. The rest will pass over to the Taliban.
Pakistani Taliban will get refuge after getting their asses whipped in KP etc.
Pakistan Army will do a 'police action' within Afganistan, leading to souring of relations.
Iran will routinely hunt down the Taliban deep within Afghanistan.
There will be massacres like never before. The Central regime will become more and more Islamist.
Assassination of Pak officers, covert Afghan-Pak war. Iran on Afghan side, Pakistan on taliban's side. Taliban will win, but US presence(albeit marginal) dissuade the Pakistanis from supporting Talibs into Kabul or Bagram. Alternative Taliban Government formed without world recognition. Continuous clashes with Iran and socialist baloch/pastoon clans. This will continue till both sides are expended.

Afghanistan ceases to exist. Independent Balochistan formed in the South. Iran claims eastern Afghanistan and may occupy it. Pakistan may form a puppet state in the Eastern Afghan areas and legally annex it. Rest of rump Afghanistan will remain in a state of civil war.

The Baloch tribes will have a permanent base to fall back and will be actively supported by Iran and opposed by both Pakistan and the Taliban. It will remain impoverished and always on the edge.

In short - Catastrophe.

 

[Ferocious]

I'd go for number 8....

 

[Shah9]

Your analysis is close.
Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad will remain under the Central Government control. The rest will pass over to the Taliban.
Pakistani Taliban will get refuge after getting their asses whipped in KP etc.
Pakistan Army will do a 'police action' within Afganistan, leading to souring of relations.
Iran will routinely hunt down the Taliban deep within Afghanistan.
There will be massacres like never before. The Central regime will become more and more Islamist.
Assassination of Pak officers, covert Afghan-Pak war. Iran on Afghan side, Pakistan on taliban's side. Taliban will win, but US presence(albeit marginal) dissuade the Pakistanis from supporting Talibs into Kabul or Bagram. Alternative Taliban Government formed without world recognition. Continuous clashes with Iran and socialist baloch/pastoon clans. This will continue till both sides are expended.

Afghanistan ceases to exist. Independent Balochistan formed in the South. Iran claims eastern Afghanistan and may occupy it. Pakistan may form a puppet state in the Eastern Afghan areas and legally annex it. Rest of rump Afghanistan will remain in a state of civil war.

The Baloch tribes will have a permanent base to fall back and will be actively supported by Iran and opposed by both Pakistan and the Taliban. It will remain impoverished and always on the edge.

In short - Catastrophe.

This sum it all.

 

[!eon]

rule of Taliban

 

[faisal6309]

Maybe 8

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

1- Taliban-ANSF war will continue, both sides would suffer larger casaulties. Taliban will also engage ANA in open battles along with usual guerralla tactics. Due to lack of air support that NATO used to provide, afghan army will suffer more casaulties then today.
2- Taliban will be unable to occupy any city. Rural areas of south and eastern afghanistan will be taliban territories. They will be unable to have control over any non-pashtun area.
3- Pakistan will stop supporting haqqani network and quetta shura, N.waziristan will be cleared. Haqqani network would suffer a great loss in their power and capabilities and would quickly lose their control over their strongholds in the east. Hizb e islami will be powerless on its own so they will joined hands with taliban and will conduct joint operations along with haqqani group and mainstream taliban.
4- India will provide great help to afghan governament and its army. India's influence in Afghanistan will increased greately after NATO withdrawl.
5- Pakistan will conduct air strikes in kunar and nooristan, the sanctuaries of TTP after NW is cleared. Afghan taliban would assist TTP in attacking border check posts of army and FC, in return TTP will provide men power , suicide bombers and weapons to them in their war against afghan army. TTP will establish new sanctuaries in khost and paktiya, haqqani network will assist them in attacks on pakistani security forces in waziristan.

7-Due to lack of suficient funds and lack of morale. The tajik, hazara and uzbek soldiers would go to their respective warlords. Weaponry of ANSF will go to non-pashtun warlords. A true civil war will start, taliban will suffer heavier casaulties by trying to advance beyond their territories.
8- There will be negotiations between northern warlords and taliban. They will agree on divison of afghanistan. Pakistan will strongely oppose the division. Afghan taliban will be now ruling pashtunistan, they will make claims on tribal areas and quetta. The war between taliban and pakistan will start.....pakistan will try to fence border but will failed to do so due due to attacks from taliban. Pakistan army will assemble more troops in FATA...but would loose control over most of the border regions along durand.
9- Pak army will be eating most of the budget, there will be economic collapse. Army will take over permenantly. To crush taliban, pak army will drop nukes on kandahar, khost and waziristan. Pashtuns will go into rebellion.
10- America would declare pakistan threat to the world. India and NATO would invade pakistan. Pakistan would drop nukes on cities of india. India will drop nukes on pakistani cities. China will declare war against america. Third world war will start. Zaid hamid will be captured alive by india.

 

[Dillinger]

1- Taliban-ANSF war will continue, both sides would suffer larger casaulties. Taliban will also engage ANA in open battles along with usual guerralla tactics. Due to lack of air support that NATO used to provide, afghan army will suffer more casaulties then today.
2- Taliban will be unable to occupy any city. Rural areas of south and eastern afghanistan will be taliban territories. They will be unable to have control over any non-pashtun area.
3- Pakistan will stop supporting haqqani network and quetta shura, N.waziristan will be cleared. Haqqani network would suffer a great loss in their power and capabilities and would quickly lose their control over their strongholds in the east. Hizb e islami will be powerless on its own so they will joined hands with taliban and will conduct joint operations along with haqqani group and mainstream taliban.
4- India will provide great help to afghan governament and its army. India's influence in Afghanistan will increased greately after NATO withdrawl.
5- Pakistan will conduct air strikes in kunar and nooristan, the sanctuaries of TTP after NW is cleared. Afghan taliban would assist TTP in attacking border check posts of army and FC, in return TTP will provide men power , suicide bombers and weapons to them in their war against afghan army. TTP will establish new sanctuaries in khost and paktiya, haqqani network will assist them in attacks on pakistani security forces in waziristan.

7-Due to lack of suficient funds and lack of morale. The tajik, hazara and uzbek soldiers would go to their respective warlords. Weaponry of ANSF will go to non-pashtun warlords. A true civil war will start, taliban will suffer heavier casaulties by trying to advance beyond their territories.
8- There will be negotiations between northern warlords and taliban. They will agree on divison of afghanistan. Pakistan will strongely oppose the division. Afghan taliban will be now ruling pashtunistan, they will make claims on tribal areas and quetta. The war between taliban and pakistan will start.....pakistan will try to fence border but will failed to do so due due to attacks from taliban. Pakistan army will assemble more troops in FATA...but would loose control over most of the border regions along durand.
9- Pak army will be eating most of the budget, there will be economic collapse. Army will take over permenantly. To crush taliban, pak army will drop nukes on kandahar, khost and waziristan. Pashtuns will go into rebellion.
10- America would declare pakistan threat to the world. India and NATO would invade pakistan. Pakistan would drop nukes on cities of india. India will drop nukes on pakistani cities. China will declare war against america. Third world war will start. Zaid hamid will be captured alive by india.

Yaara after the first few points you went NUCLEAR! Well if this was an attempt at couching facts within a piece of satire then you're brilliant.

 

[Darth Vader]

1- Taliban-ANSF war will continue, both sides would suffer larger casaulties. Taliban will also engage ANA in open battles along with usual guerralla tactics. Due to lack of air support that NATO used to provide, afghan army will suffer more casaulties then today.
2- Taliban will be unable to occupy any city. Rural areas of south and eastern afghanistan will be taliban territories. They will be unable to have control over any non-pashtun area.
3- Pakistan will stop supporting haqqani network and quetta shura, N.waziristan will be cleared. Haqqani network would suffer a great loss in their power and capabilities and would quickly lose their control over their strongholds in the east. Hizb e islami will be powerless on its own so they will joined hands with taliban and will conduct joint operations along with haqqani group and mainstream taliban.
4- India will provide great help to afghan governament and its army. India's influence in Afghanistan will increased greately after NATO withdrawl.
5- Pakistan will conduct air strikes in kunar and nooristan, the sanctuaries of TTP after NW is cleared. Afghan taliban would assist TTP in attacking border check posts of army and FC, in return TTP will provide men power , suicide bombers and weapons to them in their war against afghan army. TTP will establish new sanctuaries in khost and paktiya, haqqani network will assist them in attacks on pakistani security forces in waziristan.

7-Due to lack of suficient funds and lack of morale. The tajik, hazara and uzbek soldiers would go to their respective warlords. Weaponry of ANSF will go to non-pashtun warlords. A true civil war will start, taliban will suffer heavier casaulties by trying to advance beyond their territories.
8- There will be negotiations between northern warlords and taliban. They will agree on divison of afghanistan. Pakistan will strongely oppose the division. Afghan taliban will be now ruling pashtunistan, they will make claims on tribal areas and quetta. The war between taliban and pakistan will start.....pakistan will try to fence border but will failed to do so due due to attacks from taliban. Pakistan army will assemble more troops in FATA...but would loose control over most of the border regions along durand.
9- Pak army will be eating most of the budget, there will be economic collapse. Army will take over permenantly. To crush taliban, pak army will drop nukes on kandahar, khost and waziristan. Pashtuns will go into rebellion.
10- America would declare pakistan threat to the world. India and NATO would invade pakistan. Pakistan would drop nukes on cities of india. India will drop nukes on pakistani cities. China will declare war against america. Third world war will start. Zaid hamid will be captured alive by india.

Day Dreaming Aint Good for health

 

[American Pakistani]

1- Taliban-ANSF war will continue, both sides would suffer larger casaulties. Taliban will also engage ANA in open battles along with usual guerralla tactics. Due to lack of air support that NATO used to provide, afghan army will suffer more casaulties then today.
2- Taliban will be unable to occupy any city. Rural areas of south and eastern afghanistan will be taliban territories. They will be unable to have control over any non-pashtun area.
3- Pakistan will stop supporting haqqani network and quetta shura, N.waziristan will be cleared. Haqqani network would suffer a great loss in their power and capabilities and would quickly lose their control over their strongholds in the east. Hizb e islami will be powerless on its own so they will joined hands with taliban and will conduct joint operations along with haqqani group and mainstream taliban.
4- India will provide great help to afghan governament and its army. India's influence in Afghanistan will increased greately after NATO withdrawl.
5- Pakistan will conduct air strikes in kunar and nooristan, the sanctuaries of TTP after NW is cleared. Afghan taliban would assist TTP in attacking border check posts of army and FC, in return TTP will provide men power , suicide bombers and weapons to them in their war against afghan army. TTP will establish new sanctuaries in khost and paktiya, haqqani network will assist them in attacks on pakistani security forces in waziristan.

7-Due to lack of suficient funds and lack of morale. The tajik, hazara and uzbek soldiers would go to their respective warlords. Weaponry of ANSF will go to non-pashtun warlords. A true civil war will start, taliban will suffer heavier casaulties by trying to advance beyond their territories.
8- There will be negotiations between northern warlords and taliban. They will agree on divison of afghanistan. Pakistan will strongely oppose the division. Afghan taliban will be now ruling pashtunistan, they will make claims on tribal areas and quetta. The war between taliban and pakistan will start.....pakistan will try to fence border but will failed to do so due due to attacks from taliban. Pakistan army will assemble more troops in FATA...but would loose control over most of the border regions along durand.
9- Pak army will be eating most of the budget, there will be economic collapse. Army will take over permenantly. To crush taliban, pak army will drop nukes on kandahar, khost and waziristan. Pashtuns will go into rebellion.
10- America would declare pakistan threat to the world. India and NATO would invade pakistan. Pakistan would drop nukes on cities of india. India will drop nukes on pakistani cities. China will declare war against america. Third world war will start. Zaid hamid will be captured alive by india.

lol...$h1t story my friend.

@Topic I think Pakistan should build a wall across Pak-Afghan border & close it for ever. Pakistan will become calm & peaceful after this.
With out shutting the border & controlling the cross border movement, no operation will be successful.

 

[HRK]

One of my previous post regarding the subject .......

For any warlord to survive in any given scenario in Afghanistan would need 'foreign help' .... in that case two countries would enjoy significant strategic value Iran & Pakistan, but this time civil war of Afghanistan would be bit different than last time ....

1- After 13+ years of war it is least likely that Afghan Taliban would have the ability to hold any part or city of Afghanistan administratively on a permanent basis .....

2- Former Northern Alliance groups/ Warlords would also not have the power to hold Afghan populous center...

3- Iran would have to concentrate more in Middle East were Syria, Iraq & potentially Lebanon would be more problematic for them .... this situation will be translated as less active role of Iran in internal conflict of Afghanistan than previous ....

4- It is an undeniable fact that the influence of Pakistan has decrease in Afghanistan ..... and due to weaker economic conditions and low scale multi-dimensional insurgencies at home her future role will also be limited than previous in Afghanistan.

5- This scenario indicates a potential Power Vacuum in Afghanistan which would be filled by new power brokers which again mean foreign help, or by the collaboration of traditional players.

6- For foreign help Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, India and USA would not be in position to extent their help as previous to their loyal Assets as they all are playing in the field from a very long time as Traditional Players

7- New Power Brokers in Afghanistan are required to be Cash Rich, have not participated in current Afghan issue actively, should have strong relations with the neighbors of Afghanistan and other regional countries, should have Interests and stakes in the region. In my opinion only Russia and China fulfill these conditions.

8- Instability and Balkanization of this region is not in the interest of most of the countries of this region ..... though some countries want to redesign the region.

9- So there may be a civil war in Afghanistan, but I see a strong regional efforts to counter it, and in these efforts some traditional players may join new power broker/s to form a new Alliance.

So in short people see the end of world scenario after the withdrawal of foreign forces but remain assured this region is not going to end like this, this region is the host of four nuclear powers & .. instability of this region is not in interest of any of country .....

 

[Shah9]

bump

 

[Hyperion]

All of you are wrong...... Pashtuns will rule from North to South....... and I swear upon the sacred Naswar, I'll score at least 30 - 50 Northern Alliance heads!

Where is that SherMalang..... hope to get some intel on him........

 

[F117]

There will be a stalemate, because I do not see the Taliban enjoying Pakistani or Arab state support as in the 90s.

 

[KingMamba]

All of you are wrong...... Pashtuns will rule from North to South....... and I swear upon the sacred Naswar, I'll score at least 30 - 50 Northern Alliance heads!

Where is that SherMalang..... hope to get some intel on him........

Pakistan might be forced to annex Afghanistan if there is full withdrawal of Western forces just to prevent TTP criss border attacks.