What will end the war in Ukraine?

[Paul2]

I said that Many, MANY time, this war can only end with Ukraine being accepted into NATO membership. That's the ultimate thing that will end this war, anything less than that Ukraine will not accept, because you are simply telling Ukraine Russia will be back 3 years from now, or 6 years from now, no matter how many time they beat them back. Russia can keep Crimea, even Donbas if NATO membership for Ukraine is on the table,

On the other hand, Russian troop in Ukraine right now is a spent force, that is the same as US force in Vietnam during 72' The only different is US withdraw support to Vietnam in 71' and Russia literally spend everything on Ukraine already, anything that come now is going to be sub-par and undermanned. There are NO WAY Russia can win any offensive war from this point on, the only matter for Russia is to whether they can hold on to their gain since Feb 24, which unless Ukraine become stupid with the latest Western Equipment, I would say not likely that Russia can hold on to their gain.

The current situation in Ukraine can only be fixed by Russia is to completely withdraw their force into their original point (Crimea and Donbass), re-consolidate, re-train and re-equip their force completely, shed away the dependence of Wagner and Mobilised Soldier and rebuild a professional force again, otherwise what they are going to do is to just feed people and resource into a grinding war, while they have a lot of the first one, they don't have a lot of the second one.

That said, even if Russia completely routed from Ukraine, this "war" is not going to end, Russia will be back 3 years from now after rebuilding their army, most likely with Chinese help and modelled after the Chinese, and then if that was beaten back, they will come again, and again, because that is what Russia want, and only a meaningful defensive pact for Ukraine can stop that from happening.

Nuclear weapons for the win. If they can restart 2 intact Chernobyl reactors, they can make at least 100kg of plutonium per year.

Moscow goes boom, Russian history ends. As I been arguing many times, people are better calling Russia the State of Moscow.

Without Moscow, the rationale for Russian polity as such will cease to exist. There will be few very wealthy resource producing regions, and a lot of forest in between.

They should not discount the genuinely credible option of taking out enemy capital city as a legitimate military target. That's probably the only option left if NATO will not make a move.

 

[jhungary]

Nuclear weapons for the win. If they can restart 2 intact Chernobyl reactors, they can make at least 100kg of plutonium per year.

Moscow goes boom, Russian history ends. As I been arguing many times, people are better calling Russia the State of Moscow.

Without Moscow, the rationale for Russian polity as such will cease to exist. There will be few very wealthy resource producing regions, and a lot of forest in between.

They should not discount the genuinely credible option of taking out enemy capital city as a legitimate military target. That's probably the only option left if NATO will not make a move.

The Chance of Ukraine getting their hand on nuclear weapon is probably 1/10 of they will be joining NATO. I think it's a wishful thinking that Ukraine will go for Nuclear Weapon.

 

[Oldman1]

Nuclear weapons for the win. If they can restart 2 intact Chernobyl reactors, they can make at least 100kg of plutonium per year.

Moscow goes boom, Russian history ends. As I been arguing many times, people are better calling Russia the State of Moscow.

Without Moscow, the rationale for Russian polity as such will cease to exist. There will be few very wealthy resource producing regions, and a lot of forest in between.

They should not discount the genuinely credible option of taking out enemy capital city as a legitimate military target. That's probably the only option left if NATO will not make a move.

Nuclear weapons can be optional, but European nations and even the Biden administration is jittery about that. Best case scenario is Ukraine having conventional long range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles in defense to hit the Russians back hard. And I haven't even included long range Shahed type drones to use against the Russians as well. They already using some of them but not in mass production. Think of like Iran and the consequences of attacking them. Ukraine can target most of Russia's refineries, military bases air and ground, radars, etc. Be costly for Russia. Not to mention Ukraine being militarily stronger. Russia want to lose hundreds of thousands again? Ukraine can learn from the war and improve on it to be even more destructive against the Russians while improving their own defenses.

When ended Libya war? Never.

Failed states is the new paradigm of domination.

We are used to one state in one country, I think it's something of the past.

The future of domination is two states by country, in endless war, like Libya, the cheapest way of domination. Like Pepsi and Cocacola, but in a hard way.

The question is when Ukraine mayhem will spread to whole West Europe.

Modern technology has made possible domination in the middle of chaos: electronic espionage and cheap drones selective killings. Decades ago was needed order to get resources from a country and do commerce, that is not needed anymore, in fact it's the opposite: the less order the better for the empire (specially if the empire is separated by a ocean), less internal resources consumption, cheapest domination is hell over Earth.

The Ukraine mayhem will spread to rest of Russia. We saw what happened to Russia during the Chechen Wars. Not to mention about the Afghan War caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

[casual]

Russian victory by conventional or nuclear means. I don't see Ukraine winning.