What has Democracy solve for India? Lesson for us.

[Joe Shearer]

Very insightful analysis. But one question, how did you come up with "possible concentration of 25 to 30 PLA divisions". Last time i check, the whole Chengdu military region which is responsible for southwest China's defense only has 10+ divisions. Do you really think china will call up its 1/3 military regions to confront India ?

I am glad you asked.

Recently, reports were published about PLA exercises in mobilisation and logistics capabilities, where the PLA sought to test the following yardsticks:

• Deployment of a brigade to any part of PRC's borders within 8 hours;
• Deployment of a brigade within 24 hours;
• Deployment of the Rapid Reaction Force (reported to be approximately 4 divisions) within 3 days;
• Deployment of 10 divisions within 30 days;
• Deployment of 20 to 25 divisions within 60 days

Apparently the exercise was completely successful.

A reminder: the Indian/Sino-Tibetan border comes under Lanzhou and Chengdu jointly; one portion, the portion containing the disputed territory of Aksai Chin is under Lanzhou, the other, Xigatse onwards or perhaps (I do not have a map in front of me) slightly further west, under Chengdu. The troops gathered in 62 were drawn from both military districts, I seem to remember - I may be wrong. Please therefore count both Lanzhou and Chengdu's resources, not those of Chengdu alone. Regarding the current strength of Chengdu, I am being lazy and citing (cringe!) Wikipedia:

The International Institute for Strategic Studies attributes the region with some 180,000 personnel, with four motorised infantry divisions, one artillery division, two armoured brigades, one artillery brigade, and two anti-aircraft brigades.

I think of our struggles with mobilisation and logistics, ending with the infamous Cold Start, with a shudder of horror. I think of

• the denuding of Central Command by an Army Chief intent on guarding his personal reputation and destroying an able and competent colleague, and
• the gaping hole from Uttaranchal to Bihar, and
• a scenario where a Maoist administration in Nepal calls in PRC troops to defend the territorial integrity of Nepal against unnamed and mysterious interference by India, false and spurious concerns that have already been vocalised, and
• the impact of a superb highway system leading from Chinese territory and the close proximity of bases in Tibet right to the centre of the Gangetic Plain

- if you were an Indian who wishes for peace, but is not naive enough to think that this will happen as a gift from the gods, oen who is aware that only unceasing vigilance, even against a friend, is the price to be paid, would you not have nightmares?

 

[CardSharp]

I am glad you asked.

Recently, reports were published about PLA exercises in mobilisation and logistics capabilities, where the PLA sought to test the following yardsticks:

• Deployment of a brigade to any part of PRC's borders within 8 hours;
• Deployment of a brigade within 24 hours;
• Deployment of the Rapid Reaction Force (reported to be approximately 4 divisions) within 3 days;
• Deployment of 10 divisions within 30 days;
• Deployment of 20 to 25 divisions within 60 days

Apparently the exercise was completely successful.

I think of our struggles with mobilisation and logistics, ending with the infamous Cold Start, with a shudder of horror. I think of

• the denuding of Central Command by an Army Chief intent on guarding his personal reputation and destroying an able and competent colleague, and
• the gaping hole from Uttaranchal to Bihar, and
• a scenario where a Maoist administration in Nepal calls in PRC troops to defend the territorial integrity of Nepal against unnamed and mysterious interference by India, false and spurious concerns that have already been vocalised, and
• the impact of a superb highway system leading from Chinese territory and the close proximity of bases in Tibet right to the centre of the Gangetic Plain

- if you were an Indian who wishes for peace, but is not naive enough to think that this will happen as a gift from the gods, oen who is aware that only unceasing vigilance, even against a friend, is the price to be paid, would you not have nightmares?

This sort of comparison is why I once made a statement along the lines of, "China is doctrinally active and realistically prepared because it expects to fight another war, whereas India, I get the feeling, doesn't fully want to prepare for another war."

You said you didn't believe the same but didn't explain further.

 

[Joe Shearer]

This sort of comparison is why I once made a statement along the lines of, "China is doctrinally active and realistically prepared because it expects to fight another war, whereas India, I get the feeling, doesn't fully want to prepare for another war."

You said you didn't believe the same but didn't explain further.

I am quite sure it was the other way around. Meaning that I have been of the opinion for some time that there is a cultural aspect to the famous Indian attitude of 'strategic restraint'.

I have been forced to come to the conclusion that there are some 'deep' cultural influences on Indian policy-making, national security strategy determination and doctrinal development. Unfortunately, it will involve a fairly culturally intensive note; would my non-Indian friends hold still for it? Somehow it doesn't seem likely. It doesn't even seem likely that the jingo lunatic fringe of Indians would hold still for it!