What happens when the TPP kicks in?

[William Hung]

What is going to happen when TPP arrive?

Here is what Dr. Deborah Elms thinks:

“...investors are going to ask why would I continue to invest in Thailand and Indonesia and face problems...when I could be in Vietnam and have access to a much better environment?....the investors are going to wake up and say this is crazy, let’s pack up our factories and move it (to Vietnam).”

I think I have found NiceGuy’s mentor. He was right after all.


*** In loving memories of @NiceGuy
***

@Viva_Viet you might be interested.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Nothing will happen because TPP is already dead..

It was fun hearing Niceguy mumbling TPP for a while but other people need to get a clue why the US was so hastily to push TPP forward.

 

[Aepsilons]

What is going to happen when TPP arrive?

Here is what Dr. Deborah Elms thinks:

“...investors are going to ask why would I continue to invest in Thailand and Indonesia and face problems...when I could be in Vietnam and have access to a much better environment?....the investors are going to wake up and say this is crazy, let’s pack up our factories and move it (to Vietnam).”

I think I have found NiceGuy’s mentor. He was right after all.


*** In loving memories of @NiceGuy
***

@Viva_Viet you might be interested.

It will open markets. Japan and USA will thrive. Let's see it!

 

[somsak]

TPP has one big problem Vietnam will never accept, well according to my limited understanding.

The dispute between governments and companies will be judged by a body newly created outside national boundary.

You may ask any Thai who know history, and they will say how this resemble to 100 years ago English ambassedor John Bowling requirement. The justice of English subjects shall be under British Court system even when such English subjects are on Siam soil.

Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) | United States Trade Representative

 

[Aepsilons]

TPP has one big problem Vietnam will never accept, well according to my limited understanding.

The dispute between governments and companies will be judged by a body newly created outside national boundary.

You may ask any Thai who know history, and they will say how this resemble to 100 years ago English ambassedor John Bowling requirement. The justice of English subjects shall be under British Court system even when such English subjects are on Siam soil.

I don't think Thailand's situation and perception is applicable since Thailand is not part of the TPP negotiation party. It was never included nor seriously considered.

 

[somsak]

I don't think Thailand's situation and perception is applicable since Thailand is not part of the TPP negotiation party. It was never included nor seriously considered.

Welcome back Nohonjin. You missed my thread on Japan Ambassedor to help Thailand on R&D.

On topic, please read this news and judge for yourself what had happened.
Prayut coy on plans to join TPP | Bangkok Post: news

 

[Aepsilons]

Welcome back Nohonjin. You missed my thread on Japan Ambassedor to help Thailand on R&D.

On topic, please read this news and judge for yourself what had happened.
Prayut coy on plans to join TPP | Bangkok Post: news

Thailand no doubt is an arm in regards to Japan's MASSIVE manufacturing base deployed abroad. We have over 4,500 in China, alone, some 1,400 in Indonesia, an additional 1,300 in the Philippines, some 1,300 in India and about 400 in Bangladesh. I am not even considering the ones in Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe et al. Think of Thailand as a mere part of the GLOBAL Japanese Manufacturing Paradigm. It should benefit you to know that Japan's investment in R&D with Thailand is to augment and boost decreasing production quality in Thailand, which has been a concern for us. One of the reasons why many and many Japanese firms formerly based in Thailand are being redirected to the more efficient Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.

Therien , i suppose, lies the issue of corruption and the political instability of Thailand , which reduces, severely, Japan's confidence in Muang Thai. I hope it rectifies soon, the country's political situation, else i fear Japan will move production from Thailand to say Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

 

[TheTruth]

Thailand no doubt is an arm in regards to Japan's MASSIVE manufacturing base deployed abroad. We have over 4,500 in China, alone, some 1,400 in Indonesia, an additional 1,300 in the Philippines, some 1,300 in India and about 400 in Bangladesh. I am not even considering the ones in Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe et al. Think of Thailand as a mere part of the GLOBAL Japanese Manufacturing Paradigm. It should benefit you to know that Japan's investment in R&D with Thailand is to augment and boost decreasing production quality in Thailand, which has been a concern for us. One of the reasons why many and many Japanese firms formerly based in Thailand are being redirected to the more efficient Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.

Therien , i suppose, lies the issue of corruption and the political instability of Thailand , which reduces, severely, Japan's confidence in Muang Thai. I hope it rectifies soon, the country's political situation, else i fear Japan will move production from Thailand to say Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Why did it take so long for international investors to invest in Vietnam? Why'd they wait until this shining star was one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia?

 

[bolo]

What is going to happen when TPP arrive?



*** In loving memories of @NiceGuy
***

.

Did NiceGuy passed away?

 

[Aepsilons]

Why did it take so long for international investors to invest in Vietnam? Why'd they wait until this shining star was one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia?

I suppose it required the realization of Vietnam's infrastructure development, first. I can tell you that since the 1970s, Japan had been active in aiding Viet Nam's infrastructure development. I suppose we have spent close to 30 - 40 Billion USD just on infrastructure development in Vietnam, alone, over the years. This does not consider technological as well as civic and educational rapport-building processes. But i think since the infrastructure in Vietnam showed great promise , then the FDI from Korea, Taiwan, China, the US, Europe started picking up. I suppose what attracts Vietnam is that they have relatively streamline worker efficiency, culturally they are similar to East Asian societies such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China --- which makes it more comfortable for the latters to participate and communicate in that country. Thailand may have some Chinese aspects, but the country is relatively different, linguistically and to an extent culturally, which requires us to position oneself to the Thai sensibilities.

In Vietnam, as in China, its simple. Quick.

Then think about it application wise. Vietnam is reaching 100 million; she is growing leaps and bounds and is relatively politically stable. Thailand is shrinking, her population is decreasing, and is politically very, very unstable. These factors influences investor confidence.

 

[somsak]

Thailand no doubt is an arm in regards to Japan's MASSIVE manufacturing base deployed abroad. We have over 4,500 in China, alone, some 1,400 in Indonesia, an additional 1,300 in the Philippines, some 1,300 in India and about 400 in Bangladesh. I am not even considering the ones in Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe et al. Think of Thailand as a mere part of the GLOBAL Japanese Manufacturing Paradigm. It should benefit you to know that Japan's investment in R&D with Thailand is to augment and boost decreasing production quality in Thailand, which has been a concern for us. One of the reasons why many and many Japanese firms formerly based in Thailand are being redirected to the more efficient Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.

Therien , i suppose, lies the issue of corruption and the political instability of Thailand , which reduces, severely, Japan's confidence in Muang Thai. I hope it rectifies soon, the country's political situation, else i fear Japan will move production from Thailand to say Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Nothing on topic

 

[Aepsilons]

Nothing on topic

It actually is.

 

[somsak]

It actually is.

News Updates
Read local news. I think Japan Auto industry will invest more on Thailand.

New japanese plants plants plants

It actually is.

You need to say that Japan relocation out of Thailand (according to you) is a direct result of not (yet) joining TPP

 

[TheTruth]

I suppose it required the realization of Vietnam's infrastructure development, first. I can tell you that since the 1970s, Japan had been active in aiding Viet Nam's infrastructure development. I suppose we have spent close to 30 - 40 Billion USD just on infrastructure development in Vietnam, alone, over the years. This does not consider technological as well as civic and educational rapport-building processes. But i think since the infrastructure in Vietnam showed great promise , then the FDI from Korea, Taiwan, China, the US, Europe started picking up. I suppose what attracts Vietnam is that they have relatively streamline worker efficiency, culturally they are similar to East Asian societies such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China --- which makes it more comfortable for the latters to participate and communicate in that country. Thailand may have some Chinese aspects, but the country is relatively different, linguistically and to an extent culturally, which requires us to position oneself to the Thai sensibilities.

In Vietnam, as in China, its simple. Quick.

Then think about it application wise. Vietnam is reaching 100 million; she is growing leaps and bounds and is relatively politically stable. Thailand is shrinking, her population is decreasing, and is politically very, very unstable. These factors influences investor confidence.

Vietnam failed to industrialize on the same path as the EA Tigers or China. They are constantly, consistently disappointing despite the sheer concentration of forces wishing otherwise.

They will probably develop steadily but it's not another tiger.

 

[macnurv]

What is going to happen when TPP arrive?

Here is what Dr. Deborah Elms thinks:

“...investors are going to ask why would I continue to invest in Thailand and Indonesia and face problems...when I could be in Vietnam and have access to a much better environment?....the investors are going to wake up and say this is crazy, let’s pack up our factories and move it (to Vietnam).”

I think I have found NiceGuy’s mentor. He was right after all.


*** In loving memories of @NiceGuy
***

@Viva_Viet you might be interested.

Posting a sound bite without any proper context hardly justifies your assumptions or her POV. But for the sake of argument, lets just accept her argument. She seems to be acutely unaware of Malaysian domestic race based politics, the current UMNO government is pushing hard to keep "Bumiputra" special privileges intact and have an open economic policy, and what is Malaysian Malay elite most scared of? Its a level playing field where no one is treated better just based on their race. Najib is under severe pressure because of massive corruption scandals and chronic economic mismanagement during his tenure, and he is turning to time and tested "Race cards". TPP in its current form might not be acceptable to the government here, as it needs to appear as defender of Malay rights.
Vietnam needs to be realistic, whole the nationalistic jingoism aside, it might take few decades for Vietnam to reach even close to where China is today.
Furthermore, the secretive nature of TPP is cementing all the doubts around the whole agreement. TPP will only be good for American multinationals and best for Big Pharmas, for a common man not much would change.

It will open markets. Japan and USA will thrive. Let's see it!

Yes open markets for Americans and few others, but as for the rest they will be turned into the sweat shop of those countries.

 

[70U63]

I afraid that TPP is more about geopolitic instead of trade.
Strong and rich countries benefits the most. While poor countries will always be (modern) slave. (of cource they wouldn't use this word because it is not nice).
What they need to do is support those politicians in poor countries indirectly (whether it is one party state or Democratic countries). Educate the people in control manner while controlling everything behind the scene.
On the other hand, also help those local to setup some NGOs to fight for human right, freedom of speech and enviro. This will keep those poor people busy with no direction.
Final point is it all depend on those poorer countries whether their politician and the people intelligence enough to play the game well.
I do believe the TPP structure will like this
(unofficial):
President: World Police aka USA
Deputy President: Rising Sun aka Japan and American sheriff in Asia Pacific aka Australia
Finance minister: Singapore
Not so important minister: NZ
The rest....