What's new

Welcome to AUSTERITY Saudi Arabia: Crashing oil prices sends economy into meltdown

In a conservative kingdom, such social change would cause instability, and that is the danger the analysts are professing.
every shia kid woke up early in the morning and pary with Ayatullah like marasi of village ya allah ch mer gye kid get life somewhere dont try be marasi like ur aytullah

Speculators are responsible for worst economic disaster around the world..from German Pre-WW2 collapse to greece and euro zone crisis..speculators function by spreading rumors to take something artificially high up...and collapse it at very fast pace..

Same speculation is working against Saudi but because saudi is not a market too open to speculators they dont understand the dynamics of its working..there are two things Saudis wont do...reduce oil production..and break the peg..the speculators will be curbed automatically once US of A interest start to get hurt...
shias lost theior Nuclear ambitions now saudia is theior new obsession now propaganda in full swing

Speculators are responsible for worst economic disaster around the world..from German Pre-WW2 collapse to greece and euro zone crisis..speculators function by spreading rumors to take something artificially high up...and collapse it at very fast pace..

Same speculation is working against Saudi but because saudi is not a market too open to speculators they dont understand the dynamics of its working..there are two things Saudis wont do...reduce oil production..and break the peg..the speculators will be curbed automatically once US of A interest start to get hurt...
if saudia cut the production half oil prices will go around again 80 to 90 $$ per barrel .problem with shias is they want to flood the market with cheap oil but theior oil tech is 70s shah era they cant reach 5 million bench mark they need new tech which they dont have will take time to replace old tech .so cheer boys of aytullah r cheering for nothing .
 
.
if saudia cut the production half oil prices will go around again 80 to 90 $$ per barrel .problem with shias is they want to flood the market with cheap oil but theior oil tech is 70s shah era they cant reach 5 million bench mark they need new tech which they dont have will take time to replace old tech .so cheer boys of aytullah r cheering for nothing .

Saudis are awash with cash..did you hear the news about Saudi companies and investment arms buying up stakes in dead or near bankrupt shale enterprises..?? They are driving the oil market down to bust the shale producers then they will buy them..Saudi Arabia is running out of natural gas and has 100% dependency on imported fertilizers. It sees the oppurtunity of buying US shale oil and gas producers as a long term strategy to secure energy future.

Just some subsidy cuts leading to reforms and more efficiency business.

TOo1izD.jpg
 
.
Saudi Arabia is running out of natural gas and has 100% dependency on imported fertilizers.

What they are going to use "fertilizers" for? Producing food and exporting it? Do you know Saudi Arabia is a desert with no rivers?

For a country that does not have rivers, fertilizers should not be a priority. Water should be.
 
.
Maybe because it is supposed to be part of a single fiefdom :D.

But anyways, I personally don't care. I am just quoting the projections of IMF and WB. These are saying the low oil prices will not impact UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran and Iraq as much it will impact Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. In fact IMF is saying now that Saudis will go bankrupt. They have not said such a thing about UAE or Iran. Besides as I had alluded to you above, you will have to look at what private investors do, since no sane person would put his own money into a sinking ship except if that private person is running a vulture fund designed to enslave a nation forever.

So what private investment story tells us:

Big money is betting against Saudi Arabia



saudi-440436.jpg


chart.aspx


Of course, only time will tell at the end. But it does not look good what is coming to Saudis.

There are several answers but I suppose none of them deal with the question properly. I will try to explain from my opinion whats going on and what you are reading in newspapers might be sensationalized but it is definitely not far-fetched propaganda either. :D Bankruptcy is declared when a person or entity cannot pay its debts and sometimes that entity can be a country. To be fair, Saudi Arabia is not going bankrupt because it currently doesn't have any debts but its blowing a big hole in its bank and running on steroids towards financial ruin.:sick:

First of all, no country can be bankrupt at the present time because no country's debt has ever been issued under laws that allow for bankruptcy to avoid repaying debt. :agree: What you really mean to ask is if Saudi Arabia can ever default on its loans? However, even in that case the answer is that it is very, very unlikely. All Saudi Arabia has to due to avoid default, is to avoid borrowing very much and to reduce government spending, something Saudi Arabia has been quite good at compared to most other countries. Enjoying one of the lowest costs of oil drilling in the world, plus a very small population of its own to provide government services to means that Saudi Arabia can manage quite well on a relatively small budget if it has too, which also means that it can probably borrow as much as it wants from investors so won't really ever have to worry about any drastic reduction in public spending like so many other countries have to(i will say they are lucky in this regard).

Saudi Arabia can produce oil at a very low cost. US shale gas producers on the other hand are high cost producers.
The new energy supplies from the shale gas producers make it difficult for OPEC to raise oil prices. But OPEC led by Saudi Arabia, or Saudi Arabia acting alone, can cause the prices to fall. This is what has happened in recent months. The move has had the effect of shutting down most shale gas producers. More importantly, it has also put revenue squeeze on some higher cost oil producers such as Russia and Iran.:close_tema:

Naturally, in this scenario, Saudi Arabia faced declining revenues from its oil exports. The result was budget deficits, which the Saudi government financed out of its massive currency reserves. This cushion is available for now and for some time into the future. Now Contrast this situation with that of Iran, which finds it more difficult to finance its budgetary outlays because in addition to declining oil export revenues, it has been facing sanctions over its nuclear program(even though we are now lifting sanctions against Iran).

The Russia's situation is not much different. The government finances and the Russian economy are under great pressure from falling oil revenues and western santions imposed after the Ukrainian crisis.

One way of looking at the unfolding scenario is that Saudi Arabia has turned on the oil taps to win back energy market share from the shale gas producers, while at the same time imposing economic punishment on its regional rival Iran. The fact that the nuclear deal with Iran was reached in the backdrop of falling oil revenues lends some support to this view.

Saudi actions in the oil market also seem to be in line with the US foreign policy vis a vis Russia because by inflicting more pain on the latter country, the lower oil prices reinforce the impact of western sanctions.

So the point is that the Saudi oil market stance may not be seen in the context of the oil market alone. It has both economic and geopolitical repercussions.

As the global economy recovers, and the geopolitical situation changes, Saudi Arabia could reverse its oil policy. In all likelihood this would happen much before the point where the continued budgetary deficits start playing havoc with the Saudi government's finances.

The nuclear deal with Iran might pave the way for the release of the frozen Iranian assets. Then the economic pressure on Iran would lessen considerably. The geopolitical impact of the Saudi actions would also diminish. Would that be the time for Saudi Arabia to reconsider its oil policy?:pop:
 
.
What they are going to use "fertilizers" for? Producing food and exporting it? Do you know Saudi Arabia is a desert with no rivers?

For a country that does not have rivers, fertilizers should not be a priority. Water should be.

Saudi Arabia is not 100% desert..your lack of geographic knowledge qualifies you as dunce of the year!
 
.
Saudi Arabia is not 100% desert..your lack of geographic knowledge qualifies you as dunce of the year!

Saudi Arabia does not have rivers. Saudi Arabia is dependent on fossil water. "your lack of geographic knowledge qualifies you as dunce of the year!" Lol!

There are several answers but I suppose none of them deal with the question properly. I will try to explain from my opinion whats going on and what you are reading in newspapers might be sensationalized but it is definitely not far-fetched propaganda either. :D Bankruptcy is declared when a person or entity cannot pay its debts and sometimes that entity can be a country. To be fair, Saudi Arabia is not going bankrupt because it currently doesn't have any debts but its blowing a big hole in its bank and running on steroids towards financial ruin.:sick:

First of all, no country can be bankrupt at the present time because no country's debt has ever been issued under laws that allow for bankruptcy to avoid repaying debt. :agree: What you really mean to ask is if Saudi Arabia can ever default on its loans? However, even in that case the answer is that it is very, very unlikely. All Saudi Arabia has to due to avoid default, is to avoid borrowing very much and to reduce government spending, something Saudi Arabia has been quite good at compared to most other countries. Enjoying one of the lowest costs of oil drilling in the world, plus a very small population of its own to provide government services to means that Saudi Arabia can manage quite well on a relatively small budget if it has too, which also means that it can probably borrow as much as it wants from investors so won't really ever have to worry about any drastic reduction in public spending like so many other countries have to(i will say they are lucky in this regard).

Saudi Arabia can produce oil at a very low cost. US shale gas producers on the other hand are high cost producers.
The new energy supplies from the shale gas producers make it difficult for OPEC to raise oil prices. But OPEC led by Saudi Arabia, or Saudi Arabia acting alone, can cause the prices to fall. This is what has happened in recent months. The move has had the effect of shutting down most shale gas producers. More importantly, it has also put revenue squeeze on some higher cost oil producers such as Russia and Iran.:close_tema:

Naturally, in this scenario, Saudi Arabia faced declining revenues from its oil exports. The result was budget deficits, which the Saudi government financed out of its massive currency reserves. This cushion is available for now and for some time into the future. Now Contrast this situation with that of Iran, which finds it more difficult to finance its budgetary outlays because in addition to declining oil export revenues, it has been facing sanctions over its nuclear program(even though we are now lifting sanctions against Iran).

The Russia's situation is not much different. The government finances and the Russian economy are under great pressure from falling oil revenues and western santions imposed after the Ukrainian crisis.

One way of looking at the unfolding scenario is that Saudi Arabia has turned on the oil taps to win back energy market share from the shale gas producers, while at the same time imposing economic punishment on its regional rival Iran. The fact that the nuclear deal with Iran was reached in the backdrop of falling oil revenues lends some support to this view.

Saudi actions in the oil market also seem to be in line with the US foreign policy vis a vis Russia because by inflicting more pain on the latter country, the lower oil prices reinforce the impact of western sanctions.

So the point is that the Saudi oil market stance may not be seen in the context of the oil market alone. It has both economic and geopolitical repercussions.

As the global economy recovers, and the geopolitical situation changes, Saudi Arabia could reverse its oil policy. In all likelihood this would happen much before the point where the continued budgetary deficits start playing havoc with the Saudi government's finances.

The nuclear deal with Iran might pave the way for the release of the frozen Iranian assets. Then the economic pressure on Iran would lessen considerably. The geopolitical impact of the Saudi actions would also diminish. Would that be the time for Saudi Arabia to reconsider its oil policy?:pop:

For a nation state, bankruptcy is not analogous to a personal bankruptcy. Here bankruptcy is being used as a kind of colloquialism to mean when a state is failing to meet its financial obligations be they the import bills (v. important for a country like saudi that imports almost all of its needs) or when it can't fulfill its other financial obligations.
 
.
Saudi Arabia does not have rivers. Saudi Arabia is dependent on fossil water. "your lack of geographic knowledge qualifies you as dunce of the year!" Lol!

Yes and Zam Zam water comes from Aramco desalination plant? Right???
In Makkah region water accumulates from Rain into underground aquifiers.
In Taif underground aquifier water and those from winter snow melting is a prime source.
In north exist a large agriculture industry due to massive availability of sweet water..both underground..and from snow melting on the border with Jordan..

What Saudi Arabia truly lacks..is sanitation water...the one you need to wash and rinse with...even the water we drink..everyday comes from ground source..as mentioned on the label...Saudis want to conserve ground water for drinking and irrigation use because it is a limited resource entirely dependent on rain for replenishment.
There have been years when ground water went bone dry and at times it was so much surplus that Saudis became net exporter of wheat.. ...

The short supply of ground water and controling its ecological impact is the reason why desalinated water is supplied for sanitary use.
Fossil groundwater[edit]
Current levels of groundwater extraction far exceed the level of natural recharge: Groundwater is being "mined". For example, the Al-Ahsa aquifer in the Eastern Province experienced a drop of 150 meters over the past 25 years. Since the usable volume of the aquifers is not known, it is not clear how long groundwater mining can be sustained. Estimates of the groundwater stored in the principal aquifers are controversial. According to one estimate, the amount of water stored before modern farming started was 500 billion cubic meters, equivalent to the amount of water in Lake Erie, and by 2012 about 80% of that water had been extracted.[11]

Surface water and alluvial aquifers
The country’s mean annual surface runoff has been estimated at more than 2 billion cubic meters per year. The country has eleven renewable alluvial aquifers with an estimated combined mean annual recharge of nearly 1 billion cubic meters per year. According to the World Resources Institute the renewable groundwater and surface water resources overlap, i.e. the entire renewable groundwater resources originate in recharge from rivers (Wadis) so that total renewable water resources are in the order of 2 cubic kilometres/year. [16] Surface resources and renewable aquifers are concentrated in the west and southwest, where rainfall is higher.

For a nation state, bankruptcy is not analogous to a personal bankruptcy. Here bankruptcy is being used as a kind of colloquialism to mean when a state is failing to meet its financial obligations be they the import bills (v. important for a country like saudi that imports almost all of its needs) or when it can't fulfill its other financial obligations.

All of the above mentioned is definately bull as there has been no impact here on the liquidity or meeting external obligations..restructuring means a lot of inefficiency will go..one of my friend..a government contractor is suffering because he put hundreds of workers with those small 5HP Honda lawn mower machines to trim public parks...it is corruption..because more visas = more income..

Now government efficiency department kicks in and his payments are suspended since 6 months because obviously he put surplus man power on the project causes losses to national exchequer when the entire work could have been met by employing one big mowing machine and a drive to operate it..Obviously for him is no future other than hard driven bankruptcy....! but this is exactly the kind of corruption government is looking to control..and boost efficiency!

If western media says something about Iran it is a conspiracy, lies, jewish propoganda, blah blah..
When they say the same about Saudi it becomes word of Gospel..
Haha..

A
 
.
Saudi Arabia does not grow its own food. It has to import its food. With a population that has grown way out of proportion than which the land could feed, when Saudis go broke, loans will not save them. They will need food aid.

A year or 2 ago I read that Saudi Arabia was going to lease 100,000 hectare of fertile/agricultural land in Pakistan. Pakistan has more fertile land than it utilizes and the possibility to transform even more of some of the currently infertile land into fertile land.......this land can be mutually beneficial to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
 
.
A year or 2 ago I read that Saudi Arabia was going to lease 100,000 hectare of fertile/agricultural land in Pakistan. Pakistan has more fertile land than it utilizes and the possibility to transform even more of some of the currently infertile land into fertile land.......this land can be mutually beneficial to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

Leasing land and producing for export has serious consequences as witnessed in Philippines where DelMonte plantations have regularly been set on fire by local mafia and angry farmers..instead Pakistan and Saudi are now co-operating to improve agriculture output and Saudis companies looking for oppurtunities to invest in downward processing of food..for eventual exports to Saudi Arabia and middle east..

Pakistan is not Ethopia which needs the Saudis from first drop of water to first produce of land..Pakistan already has the infrastructure, production and exports to middle east..only manpower and capacity needs a boost to raise quantity...and quality...

Nawaz subsidy to farmers for land improvement is part of the same scheme to boost exportable agriculture potential...
 
.
If western media says something about Iran it is a conspiracy, lies, jewish propoganda, blah blah..
When they say the same about Saudi it becomes word of Gospel..

Not at all. Saudi Arabia is allied with West. Saudis even own shares in AOL Time Warner CNN, Fox news and many other Western media outlets and social network platforms. So when these outlets say something, it means, Saudis are saying it themselves. There is no propaganda here. It is Saudis speaking.
 
.
Not at all. Saudi Arabia is allied with West. Saudis even own shares in AOL Time Warner CNN, Fox news and many other Western media outlets and social network platforms. So when these outlets say something, it means, Saudis are saying it themselves. There is no propaganda here. It is Saudis speaking.

Fox News? You must not have seen it then. It is almost a redneck network.....
 
.
The Saudi/most of GCC are heading for the economic dark ages. It does not require charts & expert opinions to figure that much out. Everyone knows it - Iranians know it, the West knows it, Russians/Chinese know it, we in India know it, and the Saudis know it better than anyone else.

They are so worried about 'diversifying their economy' right now...but I'd say it's too late for that. They should have done this 20 years ago, when they had all the riches offered by oil wealth and could have easily used those investments to fuel a diverse economic powerhouse. But no! They wasted most of that money & time acquiring golden commodes, custom cars and personalized A380 jets.

Now, everyone knows they're headed for a collapse and no-one is going to risk or waste their money trying to rescue them.
 
.
The Saudi/most of GCC are heading for the economic dark ages. It does not require charts & expert opinions to figure that much out. Everyone knows it - Iranians know it, the West knows it, Russians/Chinese know it, we in India know it, and the Saudis know it better than anyone else.

They are so worried about 'diversifying their economy' right now...but I'd say it's too late for that. They should have done this 20 years ago, when they had all the riches offered by oil wealth and could have easily used those investments to fuel a diverse economic powerhouse. But no! They wasted most of that money & time acquiring golden commodes, custom cars and personalized A380 jets.

Now, everyone knows they're headed for a collapse and no-one is going to risk or waste their money trying to rescue them.

Ah yes those notorious prophecies about the oil running out, Pakistan disappearing in 14 (or was it 15?) days, the apes taking over...etc etc.

 
.
Nothing is infinite what goes down in time will come up but the key is can they ride it out?
 
.
Gotta love the austerities......saudis will never have a say in governing their country in exchange for oil subsidiaries and not taxes and that's being taken away lol stemming from the failure of making prince look good.
 
.

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Country Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom