Welcome to AUSTERITY Saudi Arabia: Crashing oil prices sends economy into meltdown

[Brahmaputra Mail]

Saudis will be bailed out by their American messiahs. But I sense a civil war in the offing.

 

[jetray]

Saudis will be bailed out by their American messiahs. But I sense a civil war in the offing.

Doubt full, American attention is now focused towards china. If not for russia's syrian intervention US would let things slip away. Whole middle east region has artificial borders drawn by british long time back. The effects are being felt now as the regimes are tumbling down. Any attempt to interfere will increase the bloodshed and violence.

 

[somebozo]

Pay attention to the dates:
Saudi arent bunch of bedouin fools..they understand the money game very well...
With the oil down it will be unattractive to export..and a home grown industry can be spurred with it...definately they prepared for the rainy day...the more sadistic part is that Iranians missed completely on the boom due to their arrogant politics...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eed5c46e-9f6c-11dc-8031-0000779fd2ac.html

December 4, 2007 5:13 am

Economy: Averting post-boom stagnation
By Andrew England

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Cranes cast shadows over construction sites. Banners hanging off gleaming multi-storey blocks promise they will soon be open. Workmen put the finishing touches to the new premises of a Saudi investment company in Riyadh, while businessmen in the east talk of expansion.

All are testament to the oil-fuelled boom Saudi Arabia is enjoying, with its real gross domestic product swelling from $188.6bn in 2002 to $348.7bn last year, providing the government with a record current account surplus of $95.5bn in 2006 after the deficits of the 1990s.

So far, the government is credited with managing its wealth prudently, building foreign assets reserves to more than $250bn, significantly reducing its debt and liberalising the economy. And, economists say, private sector participation is more dynamic compared with the boom of the 1970s and early 1980s.

Last year, non-oil private sector growth was 6.4 per cent, while overall real GDP growth was 4.3 per cent, which slowed from 6.6 per cent in 2005 because of a reduction in oil production. Economists estimate real GDP growth at about 3.7 to 4 per cent this year, but again expect non-oil private sector growth to continue at about 7 per cent, with construction, manufacturing (mainly petrochemicals), transport and telecommunications acting as the main driving forces.

“This country, according to many analysts, had stagnated economically, it was a doom and gloom scenario for the kingdom. Within four years, it has had a complete 180 degree turnround,” says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB Bank. “The difference between Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region is the boom is locally-based, it’s not because expatriates are flooding in, hence [it is] more predictable and sustainable.”

However, there are concerns about inflation, which reached 4.9 per cent in September, fuelled mainly by hikes in food and rent prices. After nearly 20 years of 1 per cent inflation or less, the rises have been a shock, particularly to lower- and middle-income families, and have added to concerns about wealth disparity.

They have also contributed to a debate about whether the riyal should remain pegged to the weak dollar. Hamad al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (Sama), said recently that the peg would not be changed, as the dollar’s weakness had a small impact on inflation, and it accounts for 65 per cent of Saudi’s imports.

Economists also say Sama is concerned that if it does revalue the riyal it will be harder to resist similar moves in future. Yet speculation has been mounting that Saudi Arabia may consider its first revaluation in 21 years, fuelled by trade in the riyal, domestic pressure to tackle inflation, as well as debate in other Gulf countries about their pegs, particularly the UAE.

Mr al-Sayari suggests a slowdown in spending may be needed to tackle inflation, saying it should be “programmed”. “This is where we need to strike a balance between maintaining job creation and economic growth and containing inflation,” he says. Another issue that could affect the pace of growth is the shortage of resources, contractors and skilled personnel, as the entire region enjoys a boom.

Last year, the government launched a $624bn investment programme for infrastructure and industrial projects to take the country through to 2020, but implementing the projects on schedule will be a task. The kingdom needs to add about 600,000 managers over the next 10 years to deliver on its plans, according to McKinsey and Company.

Economists also note that while the macro statistics are healthy, crucial issues need to be tackled, including providing job opportunities for the growing young population and broadening the depth and geographical location of economic activity.

And in spite of a number of reforms that have helped Saudi Arabia leap from 38 to 23 in this year’s World Bank’s Doing Business report, bureaucratic barriers remain an impediment to investment. “It’s not difficult to change the rules,” says Khan Zahid, chief economist at Riyad Bank. “But the real challenge lies in implementing and making sure all those things filter though to all levels of the bureaucracy and the business environment so that everybody is in line.”

Significantly, the government has to ensure that history does not repeat itself – after the heady days of the first oil boom the economy in effect stagnated.

The oil-dependent kingdom faces “one of the biggest challenges an economy has faced in modern history”, given the social and demographic factors in Saudi Arabia, says Gassan al-Kibsi, a partner at McKinsey. And while the boom has created hundreds of thousands of jobs for cheap foreign labour, Saudi unemployment has risen from 9.7 per cent in 2002 to about 12 per cent.

This is partly due to the number of students graduating and the unattractiveness of the private sector environment for young Saudis, who demand higher salaries. But another problem is the skills gap between what the market requires and what Saudis offer, largely blamed on flaws in the education system.

Central to government efforts to address these issues is a plan for six economic cities it hopes will create industries and jobs.

...............................................................................................

All investment roads lead to the economic cities

The masterplan appears straightforward. Build six new “economic cities”, leverage off the country’s abundant energy resources and geographical location to attract industry and create about 1m jobs.

In doing so, the cities’ combined gross domestic product will climb to $150bn – similar to that of Singapore – by 2020, the marketers says, and the project will help solve the kingdom’s daunting demographic, social and economic challenges.

Yet with construction beginning on the King Abdullah Economic City – the flagship – questions remain about whether it will attain its stated goals. And the stakes are high, with cities being sold as a virtual panacea for the country’s future needs.

Economists agree the kingdom is in desperate need of a model to help it reduce its dependency on oil; provide employment for the growing number of young Saudis and broaden economic activity away from overburdened main urban centres.

Four of the cities have been officially launched – King Abdullah, which will be the largest and situated on the Red Sea coast north of Jeddah; a “knowledge” city on the edge of Medina; Jizan city, near the south-western tip; and Hail: the most controversial as it lies in a remote area in the north.

The two still to be formally launched include one in Tabuk and another in the eastern province. Sagia, the government’s investment authority that is leading and promoting the project, is finalising their exact location and deciding on developers, says Fahd al-Rasheed, deputy governor at Sagia.

King Abdullah city is targeted to be open by the end of 2008, with the aim of hosting more than 2,500 industrialists and manufacturers, a port with a capacity for 10m 20-foot containers; and resort facilities including golf courses, villas and spas. Work on Medina, Jizan and Hail will begin next year, to accommodate residents from the end of 2009.

In total, the cities will require $170bn investment in infrastructure and $200bn investment in industry over the next 12 years, Mr Rasheed says.

The plan is for private investors to finance the projects, with groups such as Emaar Properties, the Dubai-based group, leading the development of King Abdullah city. Developers for three of the other cities include Saudi groups and MMC of Malaysia.

But whether the private-sector appetite will match the industrial requirements will be known only over time. “This kind of private public partnership is essentially being pushed by the supply side, not the demand side, so it’s a question that is difficult to tell at this point,” says Khan Zahid, chief economist at Riyad Bank. “It’s the suppliers pushing the product, not demanders queuing up for this product – yet. So it’s a question of how they are marketed, how they get the private sector to sign up to it.” He adds it is too early to judge how the cities will progress.

Others are beginning to question aspects of the concept, and point to a series of potential hurdles; shortages of skilled personnel, contractors and construction materials in the face of a region-wide boom; potential bottlenecks in the availability of gas feedstock for the energy intensive industries; creating a conducive environment to attract skilled foreign labour to the highly conservative kingdom; and the sheer scale of the implementation.

Yet Sagia remains confident. Mr Rasheed accepts that the challenges are formidable, but says interest is being generated from both foreign and domestic investors.

He says 500 apartments were sold in King Abdullah city within 24 hours at Jeddah premium rates, while 400 Saudi industries have committed to 800,000m² of industrial space and there has been interest in 9m of the 60m² of total industrial area.

Citing demand for real estate and knowledge-based services, he describes Medina as a “homerun”, For Jizan, he says, Sagia is closing deals with investors for the port, refinery, aluminium, logistics and power projects. Hail – supported by government plans for new highway and railway networks – will form a link between the country’s north and south, he says.

“We are having significant discussions across the board; you cannot image the interest we are getting for the economic cities. From foreign companies, from industrial companies, healthcare, ports, and logistics…we are basically closing out deals, doing studies,” he says. “Frankly it is us that is delaying.”

Sagia hopes the job creation will be driven by service sectors needed to support capital intensive energy-related industries and downstream manufacturing, such as the production of alloy wheels and engine blocks.

In King Abdullah there are plans for a “Plastics Valley,” and the goal is for Saudi Arabia to raise its share of global energy intensive industries from 2 per cent, with aluminium production rising from almost zero to 6.25m tons per annum.

By Sagia’s calculations the energy-related industries will create 110,000 jobs, with each of those creating six to seven jobs in supporting industries such as banking and logistics.

“The fair thing to say is these things are very complex and they take time,” Mr Rasheed says. “We have to get this done; there’s no way around and the faster we get it done the better it is for the country.”

Ultimately, some say, even if the cities achieve 30 or 40 per cent of their targets, that should be a considered a success given the magnitude of the difficulties facing Saudi Arabia.

“Trying these things out is much better than not doing it,” says an international expert who has studied the project. “There are those people who are criticising them, but what is the alternative? Nobody has shown a better alternative that is in a country where the population will increase by 10m-15m over the next 20 years.”

http://business.financialpost.com/n...e-the-oil-industry-is-booming?__lsa=9677-63cf

 

[XenoEnsi-14]

They will need chickpeas, rice and beans. In that scenario India would be a better candidate to help Saudis and avert a horrific and lethal famine.

Twice the methane, was that on purpose? Chickpeas is a type of bean. I would replace one with water.

 

[Daneshmand]

Twice the methane, was that on purpose? Chickpeas is a type of bean. I would replace one with water.

Well, methane gives them something to do. After all it is not like they are going to work in factories manufacturing cars or space launchers. They have to have something in life to look forward to.

But water is really serious matter. I did not mention it, since I thought still they would have enough oil to burn and desalinate water for drinking purposes. Besides, camel milk will also be available in small amounts.

 

[NABZ]

And Saudia thought American shale market will collapse. It's quite amazing how Ammerican shale market is sustaining at the moment as they need oil to be around atleast 40$/bbl to maintain cost/production ratio. Saudia can sustain upto 18$/bbl.

Surely this 8 mils of bbl surplus in open market did much damage to servicing companies as any drilling activity is halted in Saudia let alone American rig count is one of it's lowest 660 rigs as compared to 2200 rigs a year ago.

Hundreds of companies have filled bankruptcy in America and several are filling as we speak. Oil will see it's worst year in 2016.

Doubt full, American attention is now focused towards china. If not for russia's syrian intervention US would let things slip away. Whole middle east region has artificial borders drawn by british long time back. The effects are being felt now as the regimes are tumbling down. Any attempt to interfere will increase the bloodshed and violence.

Saudis will be bailed out by America? which weed do you smoke?

 

[Pulsar]

Billions of dollars were being spent by the House of Saud for spreading extreme Wahabism and aiding terror groups like the ISIS etc. They've screwed up Pakistan to an extent and now Syria and other countries around the globe. Now thankfully the oil price crash which is sending their economy into a tailspin would change their priorities which hopefully would lead to controlling the funding of their extremists and terror machines.

 

[somebozo]

And Saudia thought American shale market will collapse. It's quite amazing how Ammerican shale market is sustaining at the moment as they need oil to be around atleast 40$/bbl to maintain cost/production ratio. Saudia can sustain upto 18$/bbl.

Surely this 8 mils of bbl surplus in open market did much damage to servicing companies as any drilling activity is halted in Saudia let alone American rig count is one of it's lowest 660 rigs as compared to 2200 rigs a year ago.

Hundreds of companies have filled bankruptcy in America and several are filling as we speak. Oil will see it's worst year in 2016.


Saudis will be bailed out by America? which weed do you smoke?

Read Again:

There’s one part of the world where the oil industry is booming

http://business.financialpost.com/n...e-the-oil-industry-is-booming?__lsa=9677-63cf

Saudi, Kuwait and UAE are the only countries which are going ahead with drilling more..because at times of real austerity in the US oil sector..it gives them a hard bargain to negotiate down deeper with suppliers..

Billions of dollars were being spent by the House of Saud for spreading extreme Wahabism and aiding terror groups like the ISIS etc. They've screwed up Pakistan to an extent and now Syria and other countries around the globe. Now thankfully the oil price crash which is sending their economy into a tailspin would change their priorities which hopefully would lead to controlling the funding of their extremists and terror machines.

Don't you think Baba America is watching all this..Oil price collapse is a slap on wrist..that's all!

 

[Daneshmand]

Pay attention to the dates:
Saudi arent bunch of bedouin fools..they understand the money game very well...
With the oil down it will be unattractive to export..and a home grown industry can be spurred with it...definately they prepared for the rainy day...the more sadistic part is that Iranians missed completely on the boom due to their arrogant politics...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eed5c46e-9f6c-11dc-8031-0000779fd2ac.html

December 4, 2007 5:13 am

Economy: Averting post-boom stagnation
By Andrew England

• Share
• Print
• Clip

Cranes cast shadows over construction sites. Banners hanging off gleaming multi-storey blocks promise they will soon be open. Workmen put the finishing touches to the new premises of a Saudi investment company in Riyadh, while businessmen in the east talk of expansion.

All are testament to the oil-fuelled boom Saudi Arabia is enjoying, with its real gross domestic product swelling from $188.6bn in 2002 to $348.7bn last year, providing the government with a record current account surplus of $95.5bn in 2006 after the deficits of the 1990s.

So far, the government is credited with managing its wealth prudently, building foreign assets reserves to more than $250bn, significantly reducing its debt and liberalising the economy. And, economists say, private sector participation is more dynamic compared with the boom of the 1970s and early 1980s.

Last year, non-oil private sector growth was 6.4 per cent, while overall real GDP growth was 4.3 per cent, which slowed from 6.6 per cent in 2005 because of a reduction in oil production. Economists estimate real GDP growth at about 3.7 to 4 per cent this year, but again expect non-oil private sector growth to continue at about 7 per cent, with construction, manufacturing (mainly petrochemicals), transport and telecommunications acting as the main driving forces.

“This country, according to many analysts, had stagnated economically, it was a doom and gloom scenario for the kingdom. Within four years, it has had a complete 180 degree turnround,” says John Sfakianakis, chief economist at SABB Bank. “The difference between Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region is the boom is locally-based, it’s not because expatriates are flooding in, hence [it is] more predictable and sustainable.”

However, there are concerns about inflation, which reached 4.9 per cent in September, fuelled mainly by hikes in food and rent prices. After nearly 20 years of 1 per cent inflation or less, the rises have been a shock, particularly to lower- and middle-income families, and have added to concerns about wealth disparity.

They have also contributed to a debate about whether the riyal should remain pegged to the weak dollar. Hamad al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (Sama), said recently that the peg would not be changed, as the dollar’s weakness had a small impact on inflation, and it accounts for 65 per cent of Saudi’s imports.

Economists also say Sama is concerned that if it does revalue the riyal it will be harder to resist similar moves in future. Yet speculation has been mounting that Saudi Arabia may consider its first revaluation in 21 years, fuelled by trade in the riyal, domestic pressure to tackle inflation, as well as debate in other Gulf countries about their pegs, particularly the UAE.

Mr al-Sayari suggests a slowdown in spending may be needed to tackle inflation, saying it should be “programmed”. “This is where we need to strike a balance between maintaining job creation and economic growth and containing inflation,” he says. Another issue that could affect the pace of growth is the shortage of resources, contractors and skilled personnel, as the entire region enjoys a boom.

Last year, the government launched a $624bn investment programme for infrastructure and industrial projects to take the country through to 2020, but implementing the projects on schedule will be a task. The kingdom needs to add about 600,000 managers over the next 10 years to deliver on its plans, according to McKinsey and Company.

Economists also note that while the macro statistics are healthy, crucial issues need to be tackled, including providing job opportunities for the growing young population and broadening the depth and geographical location of economic activity.

And in spite of a number of reforms that have helped Saudi Arabia leap from 38 to 23 in this year’s World Bank’s Doing Business report, bureaucratic barriers remain an impediment to investment. “It’s not difficult to change the rules,” says Khan Zahid, chief economist at Riyad Bank. “But the real challenge lies in implementing and making sure all those things filter though to all levels of the bureaucracy and the business environment so that everybody is in line.”

Significantly, the government has to ensure that history does not repeat itself – after the heady days of the first oil boom the economy in effect stagnated.

The oil-dependent kingdom faces “one of the biggest challenges an economy has faced in modern history”, given the social and demographic factors in Saudi Arabia, says Gassan al-Kibsi, a partner at McKinsey. And while the boom has created hundreds of thousands of jobs for cheap foreign labour, Saudi unemployment has risen from 9.7 per cent in 2002 to about 12 per cent.

This is partly due to the number of students graduating and the unattractiveness of the private sector environment for young Saudis, who demand higher salaries. But another problem is the skills gap between what the market requires and what Saudis offer, largely blamed on flaws in the education system.

Central to government efforts to address these issues is a plan for six economic cities it hopes will create industries and jobs.

...............................................................................................

All investment roads lead to the economic cities

The masterplan appears straightforward. Build six new “economic cities”, leverage off the country’s abundant energy resources and geographical location to attract industry and create about 1m jobs.

In doing so, the cities’ combined gross domestic product will climb to $150bn – similar to that of Singapore – by 2020, the marketers says, and the project will help solve the kingdom’s daunting demographic, social and economic challenges.

Yet with construction beginning on the King Abdullah Economic City – the flagship – questions remain about whether it will attain its stated goals. And the stakes are high, with cities being sold as a virtual panacea for the country’s future needs.

Economists agree the kingdom is in desperate need of a model to help it reduce its dependency on oil; provide employment for the growing number of young Saudis and broaden economic activity away from overburdened main urban centres.

Four of the cities have been officially launched – King Abdullah, which will be the largest and situated on the Red Sea coast north of Jeddah; a “knowledge” city on the edge of Medina; Jizan city, near the south-western tip; and Hail: the most controversial as it lies in a remote area in the north.

The two still to be formally launched include one in Tabuk and another in the eastern province. Sagia, the government’s investment authority that is leading and promoting the project, is finalising their exact location and deciding on developers, says Fahd al-Rasheed, deputy governor at Sagia.

King Abdullah city is targeted to be open by the end of 2008, with the aim of hosting more than 2,500 industrialists and manufacturers, a port with a capacity for 10m 20-foot containers; and resort facilities including golf courses, villas and spas. Work on Medina, Jizan and Hail will begin next year, to accommodate residents from the end of 2009.

In total, the cities will require $170bn investment in infrastructure and $200bn investment in industry over the next 12 years, Mr Rasheed says.

The plan is for private investors to finance the projects, with groups such as Emaar Properties, the Dubai-based group, leading the development of King Abdullah city. Developers for three of the other cities include Saudi groups and MMC of Malaysia.

But whether the private-sector appetite will match the industrial requirements will be known only over time. “This kind of private public partnership is essentially being pushed by the supply side, not the demand side, so it’s a question that is difficult to tell at this point,” says Khan Zahid, chief economist at Riyad Bank. “It’s the suppliers pushing the product, not demanders queuing up for this product – yet. So it’s a question of how they are marketed, how they get the private sector to sign up to it.” He adds it is too early to judge how the cities will progress.

Others are beginning to question aspects of the concept, and point to a series of potential hurdles; shortages of skilled personnel, contractors and construction materials in the face of a region-wide boom; potential bottlenecks in the availability of gas feedstock for the energy intensive industries; creating a conducive environment to attract skilled foreign labour to the highly conservative kingdom; and the sheer scale of the implementation.

Yet Sagia remains confident. Mr Rasheed accepts that the challenges are formidable, but says interest is being generated from both foreign and domestic investors.

He says 500 apartments were sold in King Abdullah city within 24 hours at Jeddah premium rates, while 400 Saudi industries have committed to 800,000m² of industrial space and there has been interest in 9m of the 60m² of total industrial area.

Citing demand for real estate and knowledge-based services, he describes Medina as a “homerun”, For Jizan, he says, Sagia is closing deals with investors for the port, refinery, aluminium, logistics and power projects. Hail – supported by government plans for new highway and railway networks – will form a link between the country’s north and south, he says.

“We are having significant discussions across the board; you cannot image the interest we are getting for the economic cities. From foreign companies, from industrial companies, healthcare, ports, and logistics…we are basically closing out deals, doing studies,” he says. “Frankly it is us that is delaying.”

Sagia hopes the job creation will be driven by service sectors needed to support capital intensive energy-related industries and downstream manufacturing, such as the production of alloy wheels and engine blocks.

In King Abdullah there are plans for a “Plastics Valley,” and the goal is for Saudi Arabia to raise its share of global energy intensive industries from 2 per cent, with aluminium production rising from almost zero to 6.25m tons per annum.

By Sagia’s calculations the energy-related industries will create 110,000 jobs, with each of those creating six to seven jobs in supporting industries such as banking and logistics.

“The fair thing to say is these things are very complex and they take time,” Mr Rasheed says. “We have to get this done; there’s no way around and the faster we get it done the better it is for the country.”

Ultimately, some say, even if the cities achieve 30 or 40 per cent of their targets, that should be a considered a success given the magnitude of the difficulties facing Saudi Arabia.

“Trying these things out is much better than not doing it,” says an international expert who has studied the project. “There are those people who are criticising them, but what is the alternative? Nobody has shown a better alternative that is in a country where the population will increase by 10m-15m over the next 20 years.”

http://business.financialpost.com/n...e-the-oil-industry-is-booming?__lsa=9677-63cf

You really need to educate yourself in matter of economics.

Putting aside that you have posted an article from 9 years ago and the fact that Saudi Arabia does not have an industrial base which would somehow spring to life because of exchange rate advantage, lets just examine your claim over exchange rate.

You are clearly ignorant about the fact that the Saudi Rial is pegged against US dollar in order to provide a "inflation-less", subsidized life to its citizens under a social contract in which the citizens would not ask for political representation while they get a completely subsidized lifestyle. This means, the dollars from the sale of the oil is spent to buy back the Rials and keep its value at a set point. This dollar peg means, there is no exchange rate advantage. This means, even at the point of bankruptcy, the non-existent Saudi industry still be as competitive as it was during the time when oil was at 120 dollars.

Theoretically Saudis can make their dollar reserves run a few more years, if they abolish the dollar peg and stop defending the Saudi Rial. The Saudi Rial of course will then fall fast. But Saudis can not do that for the simple reason that everything in Saudi market is actually imported and the falling Saudi Rial will set in motion an exponential inflation.

You see, these are elementary concepts in economics. Your lack of knowledge about Saudi peg and why a non-existent Saudi industry can ever come to rescue the Saudi economy shows that IMF is right about Saudis going bankrupt and you are wrong in your day-dreaming.

 

[Daneshmand]

Read Again:

There’s one part of the world where the oil industry is booming

http://business.financialpost.com/n...e-the-oil-industry-is-booming?__lsa=9677-63cf

Saudi, Kuwait and UAE are the only countries which are going ahead with drilling more..because at times of real austerity in the US oil sector..it gives them a hard bargain to negotiate down deeper with suppliers..



Don't you think Baba America is watching all this..Oil price collapse is a slap on wrist..that's all!

IMF has taken all this into account already.

Saudi Arabia will have to triple its export to 30 million barrels per day to break even with current prices. An impossibility.

Drilling more will not save Saudi Arabia with current prices.

The only way for Saudi Arabia to save itself is to cut production of oil, and causing an increase in oil prices. Which Iran will benefit from immensely.

And if Saudi Arabia does not do that, then Saudis will go bankrupt but Iran will still keep growing as per IMF.

It is a Win-Win situation for Iran.

 

[salmanACCA]

IMF has taken all this into account already.

Saudi Arabia will have to triple its export to 30 million barrels per day to break even with current prices. An impossibility.

Drilling more will not save Saudi Arabia with current prices.

The only way for Saudi Arabia to save itself is to cut production of oil, and causing an increase in oil prices. Which Iran will benefit from immensely.

And if Saudi Arabia does not do that, then Saudis will go bankrupt but Iran will still keep growing as per IMF.

It is a Win-Win situation for Iran.

Iran can take a breath for some months before the new US president comes , and he will be coming with new plans and sanctions

 

[Daneshmand]

Iran can take a breath for some months before the new US president comes , and he will be coming with new plans and sanctions

Yes, of course. The only hope such people have is if US helps them. As always. That is why I had written this to explain the reality: https://defence.pk/threads/an-ontol...sh-sneeze-to-abdullahs-fear-of-snakes.419673/

 

[Levina]

ome analysts have said prices could fall as low as $10 a barrel from more than $100 in June 2014.

That will be a disaster.
Saudi Arabia's break-even price for oil production is a mere $15 a barrel, second-lowest only to Kuwait.
Now I had read that KSA had stashed a great deal of cash away during the most recent oil boom and currently holds foreign reserves equal to its GDP. And that it would survive adverse conditions. No idea about UAE though.

 

[srshkmr]

That will be a disaster.
Saudi Arabia's break-even price for oil production is a mere $15 a barrel, second-lowest only to Kuwait.
Now I had read that KSA had stashed a great deal of cash away during the most recent oil boom and currently holds foreign reserves equal to its GDP. And that it would survive adverse conditions. No idea about UAE though.

It will be a matter of time before all the cashes melts away. Thinking in the lines of how rash they spend their money . It will be civil war for them . If they dont diversify their economy

 

[somebozo]

IMF has taken all this into account already.

Saudi Arabia will have to triple its export to 30 million barrels per day to break even with current prices. An impossibility.

Drilling more will not save Saudi Arabia with current prices.

The only way for Saudi Arabia to save itself is to cut production of oil, and causing an increase in oil prices. Which Iran will benefit from immensely.

And if Saudi Arabia does not do that, then Saudis will go bankrupt but Iran will still keep growing as per IMF.

It is a Win-Win situation for Iran.

1979 Revolution is WIn Win For iran
Hostage crisis is WIn Win for Iran
Election rigging is Win win for Iran
Sanctions are WIn Win for Iran..

We see Iran winning and getting poorer all the time..when I don't find Persian prostitutes in Arab capitals anymore I will believe that Iran has benefitted...