WAR: Pakistans military moves in defensive posture

[Ali.009]

WAR: Pakistan’s military moves in defensive posture-Analysis​

The threat of war is real. Rupee News identifid the 4th battle of Panipat months ago. Is Delhi preventing the 4th Battle of Panipat or instigating it? Perhaps Saddam Husein was right–this is the mother of all battles.

Pakistan shattering the nutcraker- pre-empting Indian “Cold Start” limited strikes

WILD CARDS:

Economic sense may prevail in Delhi, but is seems unlikely. There is too much venom. the BJP has played a good game. It has the Congress in a vice. If the Congress exercises the “do nothing option” it will loose the elections. If the Congress blames internal terrorists it will face the retribution of the electorate for having failed to protect them. if the Congress Party is over assertive it may risk actual war. If it is as assertive as possible, it needs the cooperation of Pakistan and it may want mr. Zardari to make it sound as if it blinked. Mr. Obama is hoping for and pressuring the Pakistani government to blink. The Zardari government faces oblivion. Already charged with being too compliant to the Americans and too obsequious to the Indians, if it is seen to blink by the Pakistan, it will be swept from power forever.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE THREAT:

India is caught in a Catch 22-it cannot blame the real culprits in the Mumbai matter–inernal terrorists. Doing so will make it sound weak and unabe to defend itself. It has to blame Pakistan and then it has to show assertiveness or the current Congress Government will be swept from power. As feverish diplomatic activity tries to delay the Pakistani response and blunt the affectiveness of the preparedness, India is poised and ready to go to phase two of Operation “Kali Aandhi”, the Pakistani armed forces are fully cognizant of the US and Indian plans. Pakistan may not wait for the Indians to implement their “Cold Start Strategy”. The Missiles will be launced even before the Indian planes hit their targets. Rupee News has published a great analysis by Usman Khalid which has analyzed the Statfor analysis.

Given this, the Indian government has two choices. First, it can simply say that the perpetrators are a domestic group. In that case, it will be held accountable for a failure of enormous proportions in security and law enforcement. It will be charged with being unable to protect the public. On the other hand, it can link the attack to an outside power: Pakistan. In that case it can hold a nation-state responsible for the attack, and can use the crisis atmosphere to strengthen the government’s internal position by invoking nationalism. Politically this is a much preferable outcome for the Indian government, and so it is the most likely course of action. This is not to say that there are no outside powers involved — simply that, regardless of the ground truth, the Indian government will claim there were. That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they have had since 2002.

If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they will have to take action in retaliation — otherwise, the Indian government’s domestic credibility will plunge. The shape of the crisis, then, will consist of demands that the Pakistanis take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board, but particularly in Kashmir. New Delhi will demand that this action be immediate and public. This demand will come parallel to U.S. demands for the same actions, and threats by incoming U.S. President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation from Pakistan. Usman Khalid: Direcotr LISA-London: Great Britian

WEAKNESSES:

Let us look at the extreme positions. The Pakistani army collapses without a fight and India wins the spoils of war. This will destabilize India for the next two centuries. 160 million armed and crazy Pakistani mingled with the militants from Afghanistan will eliminate any chances of India ever moving forward with any economic growth.

The chances of the Pakistani Army capitulating are minimal to none. There are too many non-state armed players to make any spoils of victory bitter for the ‘victor”. An otugoing general may go crazy and take the rest of the world with him.

THE STRENGHT AND THE OPPORTUNITIES:

Stratfor’s analysis seems to be accurate. However it suffers from some basic flaws.

Pakistan has just had a regime change. The new government is of secular political parties eager to please both America and India. It is intensely despised for not standing up to the US and to India to protect Pakistan’s interests. The attack on Marriot Hotel was carried out by RAW but the government did not make the information public. India has denied Pakistan its rights on water of Rivers Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum but the Zardari regime has not even made a protest. If Pakistan is bombed more aggressively by the USA as suggested in the STRATFOR analysis, the people are not going to wait for the next elections to get rid of the Zardari regime. Armed cadres that exist in every province of Pakistan will take the law into their hands. A revolution is likely to fill the vacuum that emerges from Pakistan becoming a ‘failed state’. Those who hope that Pakistan would break up would be disappointed. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq broke up despite the wishes of the occupiers. The unity among the people in Pakistan is much stronger than those two countries. If the armed forces and the Banking System survived the revolution, Pakistan will emerge stronger and united. And Revolutions recognise no borders. It is India that may break up because the atrophy of the society in that country is much more advanced.

India has made its continued occupation of Muslim majority state of Jammu and Kashmir a matter of honour and prestige. Sikh majority Punjab and the federal state of the seven sisters of Assam (some of them with Christian majority) are next in the queue to become sovereign independent states. USA and India have raised hopes in these independence movements by supporting self-determination in Baluchistan and Pashtunistan. The situation having been unfrozen, all these freedom movements would achieve legitimate and popular objectives once the regular armed forces of both countries falter and fail as is very likely in consequence of Indo-US efforts. The Pashtun being in the vanguard of the Islamic Movement, and the secession of Baluchistan being supported by three out of fifty tribes of Baluchistan, it seems very unlikely that the US plans against Pakistan would succeed. However, it is more likely that older and more popular independence movement in India might succeed. Destabilisation resulting from Indo-US plans against Pakistan would produce results much more surprising than in Iraq or Afghanistan. Can India take that risk? The ‘Immediate’ Fights the’ Ultimate’ in South –Central Asia By Usman Khalid

THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND:

As expected, after Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan is the next Muslim domino that is under attack. General Hamid Gul has been saying this for the best part of the decade. If the Iraqis had not offered such stiff resistance and the Afghan had not routed NATO, the attack on Pakistan would have come a lot sooner.

WASHINGTON: India and Pakistan have not changed their nuclear posture or made overt military moves since terror attacks in Mumbai despite heightened political tensions, a US military official said Tuesday. “Militarily, the temperature is pretty low right now,” said the official, who asked not to be identified.

The official said Pakistan moved some aircraft and air defense units to the border after the Indians pointed a finger at Pakistan as the source of the attack.

But the Pakistanis have moved no ground forces, and “on the nuclear side nothing at all,” the official said. “The Indians have showed great restraint, militarily. As a matter of fact, no change (in posture),” he said. “There is diplomatic activity and political activity. That is where it is happening right now.” AFP/Reuters. US: Pakistan, India N-posture unchanged

RESPONSE TO THE THREAT:

The Pakistanis are not taking any chances with Indian threat and the apparent Barack Obama signal to India that she has a right to defend herself. Pakistan also has a right to defend itself. Defensive measures include:

1) Tactical aircraft and air defense units have been moved to forward positions on the Eastern front. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years. The reduced size of the Indian AIr Force and its decision to place its aircarfts in forward bases in Tezpur (Northeast India), and Ladakh (Indian Occupied Kashmir) shows some sort of frustration on the part of the decision makers. The Northeast and Ladakh placement of Su IAF jets threatens China and attempts to intimidate the Pakistanis. The Pakistan Airforce (PAF) has taken corrective actions and for the first time since 1947 may achieve parity with the IAF.

2) 24/7 radar readiness has been executed.

3) Hatf 3 and Hataf 4 Missiles have been readied and targets fed into the avionics. Targets include Indi’as forward airforce bases in Halwara, Adampur, Jamnagar and the new one in Ladakh. India attempts to threaten China from Ladakh & Northeast

4) Nuclear weapens have not been moved. Nor have the nuclear tips been assembled, but this can be done on short notice during satallite blindspots.

5) There has been no mass movement of army, but units have been readied awaiting any movement from the Indian side. If things don’t cool down by within the next few days all leaves will be cancelled and reserves will be called in and a cease fire will be decalred on the Western front.

6) Within a week if things do not go back to normal, Pakistani territory wil lbe daclared a no fly zone and any done inside Pakistan will be shot down.

7) PAF counters IAF: Air Forces in South Asia: PAF counters IAF strategy RUPEE NEWS: Recording History, Narrating Archives, Strategic Intellibrief Analysis: Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Rupi Ny

8) 150,000-250,000 irriegulars are ready to go deep into Indian territory to cause havoc inside India. 10 persons kept all of Mumbai hostage for 60 hours. 150,000 irreigualrs smuggled into India from the Cease Fire Line, across the international border Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lnak and via sea smuggling routes will be sent prior to the begining of actual hostilities.

9) Hundreds of speedboats with a suicide mission await the Indian Navy, if it attempts to do a Naval blockade.

10) In case of an attack it is expected that the Kashmiris wil cause problems for the 800,000 soldiers trapped in Kashmir

11) There are also some special surprises planned.

The main deterrent against India’s “Cold Start” limited strikes on Pakistan will be Pakistan’s short, medim and long range missiles. If India atempts to attack any posts in Pakistan either by missile attack or by aircraft, Pakistan will launch missiles attack in a measured response. If India continues, Pakistan will continue the barrage of missiles and not back down.

Zardari’s verbal gymnastics about first no first use (NFU) are as significant as his written agreement to restore the judges.

Indian Western command WAC: Ladakh to Bikanar

The US is playing down the threat from India to keep the element of surprise.

The military restraint displayed by both sides is in sharp contrast with the charged political atmosphere in the wake of attacks by heavily armed gunmen on luxury hotels and other sites around Mumbai.
The Pentagon has also seen no signs that Pakistan is preparing to shift troops out of its tribal region near the Afghanistan border due to rising tensions with India, a US defense official said on Tuesday.
“There are no indications that anything is happening. Nothing has happened or is planned to happen in that vein,” said the defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the situation Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
“It’s business as usual,” the official added.

Under pressure from Washington, Pakistan has recently stepped up military operations against militant strongholds in the border region, used as a training and staging ground for attacks into Afghanistan.

But officials in Islamabad have warned that any deterioration of ties with India after last week’s attacks in Mumbai would force Pakistan to divert troops to its Indian border and away from a US-led anti-militant campaign on the Afghan frontier.

Indian investigators have said the Mumbai attackers had months of commando training in Pakistan by a banned group - Lashkar-e-Taiba, blamed for a 2001 attack on India’s parliament.

The U.S. defense official said there are believed to be 100,000 to 120,000 Pakistani troops in the tribal area, including 50,000 members of the paramilitary Frontier Corps. - AFP/Reuters. US: Pakistan, India N-posture unchanged. Usman Khalid: Direcotr LISA-London: Great Britian

Proxy war in Afghanistan: Strategic depth vs Strategic clout. The story of Afghanistan and colonialism begins a long time ago. British tried to take up White Man’s burden in Afghanistan. It suffered badly in Kabul and could not hold it. NATO Lessons: 1880 UK defeat at Maiwand-Afghanistan.

Indian machinations in Kabul are reminiscent of the Marhattas provoking the Pakhtuns and the Balauch in the 18th century. With dreams of Mughal grandeur, the Marhattas began to think of themselves as successors to the Mughals. They began harassing the states of the Punjabis, Pathans and the Baluch. By aggravating the powers, they galvanized a grand alliance which included Ahmed Shah Durrani to the West and Siraj Ud Daulah to the East. The Marhattas ultimately paid the consequences of the harassment–they were decimated from history.

The 1st Battle of Panipat (1526): Mughal Babur against the Delhi Sultan Ibrahim Lodi

The 2nd Battle of Panipat (1556): Akbar the Great vs Adil Shah Suri and Hemu

The 3rd Battle of Panipat (1761): Afghans Pakhtuns, Punajabis, Baluch vs the Marathas

In my various discourses at the United Nations I have tried to explain that in history, whenever the Khyber is breached, India becomes vulnerable and the flash point is always within Indian boundaries typically at Panipat. For a long time we have tried to tell the world that the frontline has shifted from Afghanistan into Pakistan and the consequences for India, Middle East and China are obvious. It is the intent of the anti-peace and nihilistic people who wish to create a Trotsky-like formula, with the eventual goal of acquiring a stronghold in Pakistan. The world prefers to perceive this as an insurgency and does not recognise the potential of this movement in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province to spill over into adjoining countries, thereby widening the conflict.” Abdullah Hussain Haroon, Pakistan’s permanent UN representative, December 1st, 2008. The Orignal Rupee News article was written on November 3rd, 2008. It was updated with the pertinent comments by Ambassador Haroon on December 1st, 2008.

CURTAIN CALL:

But the Ultimate is much more interesting. If India does not reinforce its garrison in Afghanistan, America would lose interest in what India has to offer. The USA would undertake a ‘surge’ and everybody including Pakistan want it to succeed because that is a part of its ‘exit strategy’. After USA scales down its forces in Afghanistan, India will be chased out if it did not leave even earlier than the US. Pakistan will be bombed much more by the Americans as well as the ‘resistance’ in consequence of 11/26. The rest is very uncertain because the narrative would not be written by any ‘state’ but by the ‘resistance’. I mean ‘resistance’ in Pakistan that has the ruling parties – the PPP, the ANP, and the MQM – in its sights. ++

 

[T-Rex]

It is indeed a very interesting article. The Indians have put Pakistan and themselves in a difficult position. The ball is definitely in India's court now and whetever it does it seems to be a lose lose situation. India has unwittingly stepped into the anglo-American trap and now it has very little scope to avoid being the sacrificial lamb of the anglo-American design. It was stupid on the part of the Pakistanis not to publicly disclose evidence that linked RAW with the Marriot bombing. Somebody in Pakistan will have to pay for that blunder and I won't be surprised if Mr. Ten Percent's government is ousted.

 

[Kasrkin]

Even if we had tried, it wouldn't matter. India is much better at selling its point of view to the world and always has been (even if that point of view is not as credible as ours).

 

[hasang20]

It is indeed a very interesting article. The Indians have put Pakistan and themselves in a difficult position. The ball is definitely in India's court now and whetever it does it seems to be a lose lose situation. India has unwittingly stepped into the anglo-American trap and now it has very little scope to avoid being the sacrificial lamb of the anglo-American design. It was stupid on the part of the Pakistanis not to publicly disclose evidene that linked RAW with the Marriot bombing. Somebody in Pakistan will have to pay for that blunder and I won't be surprised if Mr. Ten Percent's government is ousted.

i seriously think our govt should've better understanding with Bangladesh and allow us to build a 2 Air Base so we can take them bye suprise East and west and trap them

1st objective ; Denuclearized India
2nd Objective ; destroy all the airbase
3rd objective ; prevent Indias battleship come throw the sea and fire missiles @ Karachi
3rd objective ; provide cover for the ground forces and get some taliban to help us with the man power
4th objective ; take Kashmire back
5th objective ; help 16groups in India gain Independence
6th objective ; keep an eye on the western border incase Isreal anytime decied to attack Pakistan
7th objective ; Include Tukey in the war
8th objective ; pray to allah.

 

[Ali.009]

i seriously think our govt should've better understanding with Bangladesh and allow us to build a 2 Air Base so we can take them bye suprise East and west and trap them

1st objective ; Denuclearized India
2nd Objective ; destroy all the airbase
3rd objective ; prevent Indias battleship come throw the sea and fire missiles @ Karachi
3rd objective ; provide cover for the ground forces and get some taliban to help us with the man power
4th objective ; take Kashmire back
5th objective ; help 16groups in India gain Independence
6th objective ; keep an eye on the western border incase Isreal anytime decied to attack Pakistan
7th objective ; Include Tukey in the war
8th objective ; pray to allah.

Errr, you'r 8th objective should be the 1st one. You started your list wrong.

 

[Rafael]

a bit over ambitious!!! i guess!

 

[T-Rex]

Even if we had tried, it wouldn't matter. India is much better at selling its point of view to the world and always has been (even if that point of view is not as credible as ours).

Not doing what should be done by saying it does not matter is practically a crime under these cicumstances. These people should be exposed and punished for high treason.

 

[Kasrkin]

I certainly agree brother, but I'm just trying to point out this gap in the Pakistani state structure. One of the reasons it does exist is because no one cares, no one is there to defend Pakistan's own ideology once in a while let alone attack our enemies for hurting us.

 

[garibnawaz]

i seriously think our govt should've better understanding with Bangladesh and allow us to build a 2 Air Base so we can take them bye suprise East and west and trap them

1st objective ; Denuclearized India
2nd Objective ; destroy all the airbase
3rd objective ; prevent Indias battleship come throw the sea and fire missiles @ Karachi
3rd objective ; provide cover for the ground forces and get some taliban to help us with the man power
4th objective ; take Kashmire back
5th objective ; help 16groups in India gain Independence
6th objective ; keep an eye on the western border incase Isreal anytime decied to attack Pakistan
7th objective ; Include Tukey in the war
8th objective ; pray to allah.

You had that opportunity in 1971. What happened then? I am talking from PAF prospective.

7th objective ; Include Tukey in the war

What makes you to think they will join u in war?

 

[Nihat]

It was a joke nawaz bhai , you don't need to take it so seriously.

 

[Geromix]

It was a joke nawaz bhai , you don't need to take it so seriously.

Well joke or anything i personally feel a war may not happen.

 

[su-47]

i seriously think our govt should've better understanding with Bangladesh and allow us to build a 2 Air Base so we can take them bye suprise East and west and trap them

1st objective ; Denuclearized India
2nd Objective ; destroy all the airbase
3rd objective ; prevent Indias battleship come throw the sea and fire missiles @ Karachi
3rd objective ; provide cover for the ground forces and get some taliban to help us with the man power
4th objective ; take Kashmire back
5th objective ; help 16groups in India gain Independence
6th objective ; keep an eye on the western border incase Isreal anytime decied to attack Pakistan
7th objective ; Include Tukey in the war
8th objective ; pray to allah.

this post is in the wrong thread. the jokes thread is in the members club.

 

[Rafael]

this post is in the wrong thread. the jokes thread is in the members club.

lolzz...agreed!!! whoever has posted this thread i guess should think again....no offence btw..

 

[Rafael]

i seriously think our govt should've better understanding with Bangladesh and allow us to build a 2 Air Base so we can take them bye suprise East and west and trap them

1st objective ; Denuclearized India
2nd Objective ; destroy all the airbase
3rd objective ; prevent Indias battleship come throw the sea and fire missiles @ Karachi
3rd objective ; provide cover for the ground forces and get some taliban to help us with the man power
4th objective ; take Kashmire back
5th objective ; help 16groups in India gain Independence
6th objective ; keep an eye on the western border incase Isreal anytime decied to attack Pakistan
7th objective ; Include Tukey in the war
8th objective ; pray to allah.

ohh i mean this one!!!