VOX: Why China's population is shrinking

[epebble]

What's the deal? 1 young person's taxes supporting 2 elderly's pensions. You don't see a problem with that?

No problem. This 'problem' doesn't fall from the sky like a meteor. Parents who have one child know they have to save for retirement and will save or invest the money they would have spent raising child # 2,3,4 .... Also, if the young person's income is higher, he or she won't mind paying higher taxes. Everybody benefits when there is lower population, higher productivity and higher income. Everybody loses with high population, low productivity, low income.

if only 3rd world like india,bangladesh ,africa had population decline ,the world would be much greener and clean.

If the population of the world is one billion, with present technology, the quality of life will be so high that we will all feel we are living in heaven and retire all religions and live in peace.

 

[Brainsucker]

Maybe the solution for this population decline is by taxing people without children with 10% taxes, to pay those people who have children. So basically, even if they don't have any children, they still have to pay for other people children's education, welfare, etc.

With this, people who have children will get incentive, while people who don't have children must pay for other people's kids.

Well, China is socialism. Children are the country future. So it should be normal for the whole country to pay for the future of China safety. By ensuring that those children will have good education, good welfare, and relatively happy.

 

[S10]

That's never going to happen. Even the most pessimistic projection doesn't have China dropping far below 2 workers per pensioner throughout this century.

China is on par to lose half of its current population level by the end of this century. Couple that with elderly living longer, you really think China's economy will be able to grow with such heavy burden? You think the healthcare and retirement system can properly cope with a shrinking workforce?

Demographics is destiny, and China is on a bad trajectory thanks to CCP's mismanagement.

Maybe the solution for this population decline is by taxing people without children with 10% taxes, to pay those people who have children. So basically, even if they don't have any children, they still have to pay for other people children's education, welfare, etc.

With this, people who have children will get incentive, while people who don't have children must pay for other people's kids.

Well, China is socialism. Children are the country future. So it should be normal for the whole country to pay for the future of China safety. By ensuring that those children will have good education, good welfare, and relatively happy.

That's what I propose too. They're not even paying for other people's kids, but their own care in the future.

Age 35 without children - 5% extra income tax
Age 45 without children - 10% extra income tax
Age 55 without children - 15% extra income tax

China needs to start public housing program targeted at married couple with kids, but make it unavailable to childless individuals.

 

[S10]

No problem. This 'problem' doesn't fall from the sky like a meteor. Parents who have one child know they have to save for retirement and will save or invest the money they would have spent raising child # 2,3,4 .... Also, if the young person's income is higher, he or she won't mind paying higher taxes. Everybody benefits when there is lower population, higher productivity and higher income. Everybody loses with high population, low productivity, low income.

Nonsense

China's pension is a pay-as-you-go system. That means it requires those working to contribute constantly to support those who are retired. This system cannot be supported with the current population structure unless you radically reform it.

 

[epebble]

Nonsense

China's pension is a pay-as-you-go system. That means it requires those working to contribute constantly to support those who are retired. This system cannot be supported with the current population structure unless you radically reform it.

Why should the retired depend on only the government? If they have one child instead of 3, what happened to all the money not spent raising two more children?

 

[Brainsucker]

Why should the retired depend on only the government? If they have one child instead of 3, what happened to all the money not spent raising two more children?

They have spent all the money to that single kid's education.

 

[S10]

Why should the retired depend on only the government? If they have one child instead of 3, what happened to all the money not spent raising two more children?

You are aware of the sky high housing prices in China right? Most working people will be spending their whole working lives paying their mortgage.

China got old before it got rich. At least Japan reached developed status before having the same problem. Like I said, China is on a bad trajectory. The first step to fixing a problem is admitting there is a problem. Unfortunately the little pinks are still in denial.

 

[epebble]

You are aware of the sky high housing prices in China right? Most working people will be spending their whole working lives paying their mortgage.

View attachment 922442

China got old before it got rich. At least Japan reached developed status before having the same problem. Like I said, China is on a bad trajectory and still some little pinks are in denial.

Mortgage as a percent of income > 100% means nobody has a mortgage, everybody rents. What is Rent to Income ratio? These numbers don't make any sense at all to me. Why does anyone build so many homes that are not affordable? How do they carry the capital cost for unsold homes?

 

[Mista]

Even the most pessimistic projection doesn't have China dropping far below 2 workers per pensioner throughout this century.

 

[nahtanbob]

1.4 billion people shrink a little bit, still 1.4billion people, One fifth of the humanity.what the deal?

population of world projected to hit 10 billion

we need a dose of afgan talibs on our ladies

what is the exact plan ?

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

what is the exact plan ?

no plan whatsoever. They would have grilled my @ss for saying such a line on domestic forums

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

View attachment 922443

That's absolutely ridiculous. Are these people projecting that no child is born in China ever again?
The most pessimistic UN projection has China's population above 800 million by 2100. Do you think the government would allow anything like that to happen? Do you have the slightest idea about the tools they have at their disposal to address this problem?

 

[Mista]

That's absolutely ridiculous. Are these people projecting that no child is born in China ever again?
The most pessimistic UN projection has China's population above 800 million by 2100. Do you think the government would allow anything like that to happen? Do you have the slightest idea about the tools they have at their disposal to address this problem?

That's not the most pessimistic UN projection.

The medium variant projection by the UN forecasts that China's population will fall to ~767mil people with a dependency ratio of 102.8 by the end of the century.

The most pessimistic projection (low variant) forecast a fall to ~488mil people with a dependency ratio of 158.0 by the end of the century.

Key facts about China’s declining population

China has had the world's largest population since at least 1950 but is now projected to experience an absolute decline as early as 2023.

www.pewresearch.org

For the high variant, the UN assumes that China's average TFR would be around 1.9.
For the medium variant, the UN assumes that China's average TFR would be around 1.4.
For the low variant, the UN assumes that China's average TFR would be around 0.9.

Time-Plot (Single) | Line Chart | Data Portal

Display the data table with indicators in rows (use Display option to customize pivot)

population.un.org

The medium variant is a bit too optimistic. The UN previously predicted that China's population will start falling in 2031-32, but it already started falling in 2022.

The UN medium variant assumes that China's TFR will keep on increasing throughout this century, when there is little evidence to support this assumption. In fact, if you look at the experience of other East Asian developed countries, China's TFR will continue to face a downward pressure as China continues to develop and urbanize.

Even Chinese demographers also think the UN is always too optimistic.

既然联合国已经有了对于中国未来人口的预测，为何我们仍然要对中国未来人口进行预测？原因是，联合国的预测往往倾向于高估中国人口。

例如，《世界人口展望2019》中方案假设2020至2100年的中国总和生育率将介于1.70到1.77之间，到本世纪末，中国总人口下降到10.65亿；低预测假设从2020年到2100年的总和生育率均为1.3左右，到本世纪末，中国人口将下降为6.84亿。

而《世界人口展望2017》中方案预计中国未来的总和生育率将介于1.6到1.8之间，到本世纪末，中国总人口下降到10.2亿；低方案假设从2015年到本世纪末的总和生育率均为1.3的水平，到本世纪末，中国人口将下降为6.2亿。

可见，即使是联合国的低方案假设的生育率也有1.3，但实际上，中国去年的生育率已经下降到了1.3，2021年的生育率将下降到了1.1左右，已经明显低于联合国低方案的生育率。由于城市化进程、高房价、子女教育成本过高等原因，中国人的平均生育意愿普遍低迷。因此，如果不大力鼓励生育，未来中国的生育率还会进一步下降。作为一种参照，韩国即便在鼓励生育的情况下，2020年的生育率也已经跌到了0.84。

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finance.sina.com.cn

China's TFR already fell to 1.1 in 2021. The TFR in urban China has fell to 0.86. China would be lucky if their TFR doesn't continue to fall to 0.78 like South Korea as it continues to develop and urbanize their remaining rural population.

TFR in urban China:

http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/pcsj/rkpc/5rp/html/l0605a.htm

Here's the projection from Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which assumes that China's TFR will average ~1.1 throughout the century:

The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021, pushing China’s population down to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.

The reasonable assumptions behind that prediction are that China’s total fertility rate slips from 1.15 to 1.1 between now and 2030, and remains there until 2100.

The rapid decline in China's population will have a profound impact on the country's economy.

China’s working-age population peaked in 2014 and is projected to shrink to less than one third of that peak by 2100.

China’s elderly population (aged 65 and above) is expected to continue to climb for most of that time, passing China’s working-age population near 2080.

China’s population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here’s what it means for the world

For the first time in 60 years, China's population is on track to decline. Sustained decreases will have an impact beyond just China's borders.

www.weforum.org

 

[beijingwalker]

That's not the most pessimistic UN projection.

The medium variant projection by the UN forecasts that China's population will fall to ~767mil people with a dependency ratio of 102.8 by the end of the century.

The most pessimistic projection (low variant) forecast a fall to ~488mil people with a dependency ratio of 158.0 by the end of the century.

Key facts about China’s declining population

China has had the world's largest population since at least 1950 but is now projected to experience an absolute decline as early as 2023.

www.pewresearch.org

For the high variant, the UN assumes that China's average TFR would be around 1.9.
For the medium variant, the UN assumes that China's average TFR would be around 1.4.
For the low variant, the UN assumes that China's average TFR would be around 0.9.

Time-Plot (Single) | Line Chart | Data Portal

Display the data table with indicators in rows (use Display option to customize pivot)

population.un.org

The medium variant is a bit too optimistic. The UN previously predicted that China's population will start falling in 2031-32, but it already started falling in 2022.

The UN medium variant assumes that China's TFR will keep on increasing throughout this century, when there is no evidence to support this. In fact, if you look at the experience of other East Asian developed countries, China's TFR will continue to face a downward pressure as China continues to develop and urbanize.

Even Chinese demographers also think the UN is always too optimistic.

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finance.sina.com.cn

China's TFR already fell to 1.1 in 2021. The TFR in urban China has fell to 0.86. China would be lucky if their TFR doesn't continue to fall to 0.78 like South Korea as it continues to develop and urbanize their remaining rural population.

TFR in urban China:

http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/pcsj/rkpc/5rp/html/l0605a.htm

Here's the projection from Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which assumes that China's TFR will average ~1.1 throughout the century:

China’s population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here’s what it means for the world

For the first time in 60 years, China's population is on track to decline. Sustained decreases will have an impact beyond just China's borders.

www.weforum.org

Falling below 1 billion by 2100? you worry too much.

Besides, 1 billion will be still too many, I didn't expect the population decrease could be this slow, year 2100, I won't live to see it.

 

[Mista]

Falling below 1 billion by 2100? you worry too much.

Besides, 1 billion will be still too many, I didn't expect the population decrease could be this slow, year 2100, I won't live to see it.

You can tell that to the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences who did the projections.

It's math. On average, women needs to give birth to 2.1 children to replace herself and her partner, otherwise known as the replacement rate.

China's total fertility rate is around 1.15 in 2021. 1.15/2.1 = ~55%. China's current TFR can only replace ~55% of the previous generation. In other words, each generation will shrink by ~45% at current TFR.

China's urban TFR is even lower at 0.86. 0.86/2.1 = ~40%. In other words, without internal migration, each generation of urban Chinese will shrink by ~60% at current TFR. Only South Korea with a TFR of 0.78 can fight with such speed of demographic collapse.