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Vision on the Global South

You are definitely the best Japanese poster in PDF.:-)

@Shotgunner51 Any fresh analysis about Global South?

I wonder the Global South views the international political economy from a simplistic dualist viewpoint, such as, either us or them?

As far as I can tell, the developing world does not wish to be won over or brought into in any major scheme, hence they are very open to and optimistic about new global south initiatives such as the AIIB.

Obama: US Should Set Rules for World Economy / Sputnik International

Obama claims that the United States should write the economic rules for the rest of the world since it enjoys the strongest growth.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States should write the economic rules for the rest of the world since it enjoys the strongest growth, President Barack Obama said in a speech at the University of Wisconsin in La Crosse on Thursday.

“At a moment where our economy is in a position of global strength, because we are going faster than most other countries, advanced countries, we have to write the economic rules for the global economy before countries like China do,” Obama stated.

Read more: Obama: US Should Set Rules for World Economy / Sputnik International
 
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Let me guess: this is a desperate attempt to undermine AIIB's, BRICS' and in general China's (with regards to the Belt and Road Initiative) economic influence and to shore up those of institutions dominated by America herself or her allies (e.g. the ADB) and to help TPP as well as TTIP gain momentum.

Let's see if China can successfully counter her efforts. :-)
 
I wonder the Global South views the international political economy from a simplistic dualist viewpoint, such as, either us or them?

As far as I can tell, the developing world does not wish to be won over or brought into in any major scheme, hence they are very open to and optimistic about new global south initiatives such as the AIIB.

Obama: US Should Set Rules for World Economy / Sputnik International

Obama claims that the United States should write the economic rules for the rest of the world since it enjoys the strongest growth.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States should write the economic rules for the rest of the world since it enjoys the strongest growth, President Barack Obama said in a speech at the University of Wisconsin in La Crosse on Thursday.

“At a moment where our economy is in a position of global strength, because we are going faster than most other countries, advanced countries, we have to write the economic rules for the global economy before countries like China do,” Obama stated.

Read more: Obama: US Should Set Rules for World Economy / Sputnik International



What's is important for China is while maintaining business momentum with the US-led world (north America, northeast Asia, western Europe), is to drastically increase weight of business with others. Well this thread isn't about the "developed" world, so I will quick summarize the vision:

North America will continue to be major partner for China. Canada is doing fine, and US will continue to be the only global hegemony as long as dollar remains top international reserve currency. On your question "views the international political economy from a simplistic dualist viewpoint, such as, either us or them?", I suppose that's a US way of viewing things, and China will reciprocate that if necessary.​

Northeast Asia will continue to grow, and China should continue to deepen integration of its eastern seaboard with the region's advanced economies. Ties with Taiwan, SK, are close, while a smooth political relationship with Japan is yet to be achieved, that will be important but a challenge.​

But how will western Europe, currently the top trading partner for China, evolves after the debt crisis? We are confident that Germany will remain strong, a few small northern advanced countries will do fine, but highly doubtful on the others. The PIGS are peripheral countries of EU28 and negative impacts will be limited, however if France also got into debt crisis and become FIGS, the damages to EU are unimaginable, China need to stay alert and make contingency plans with Germany, and Russia if applicable.​

 
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What's is important for China is while maintaining business momentum with the US-led world (north America, northeast Asia, western Europe), is to drastically increase weight of business with others. Well this thread isn't about the "developed" world, so I will quick summarize the vision:

North America will continue to be major partner for China. Canada is doing fine, and US will continue to be the only global hegemony as long as dollar remains top international reserve currency. On your question "views the international political economy from a simplistic dualist viewpoint, such as, either us or them?", I suppose that's a US way of viewing things, and China will reciprocate that if necessary.​

Northeast Asia will continue to grow, and China should continue to deepen integration of its eastern seaboard with the region's advanced economies. Ties with Taiwan, SK, are close, while a smooth political relationship with Japan is yet to be achieved, that will be important but a challenge.​

But how will western Europe, currently the top trading partner for China, evolves after the debt crisis? We are confident that Germany will remain strong, a few small northern advanced countries will do fine, but highly doubtful on the others. The PIGS are peripheral countries of EU28 and negative impacts will be limited, however if France also got into debt crisis and become FIGS, the damages to EU are unimaginable, China need to stay alert and make contingency plans with Germany, and Russia if applicable.​

:enjoy:
 

China's Expanding Reach And Growing Influence In Central & Eastern Europe

Aug 2, 2015 @ 11:49 PM
China's Expanding Reach And Growing Influence In Central & Eastern Europe

For the past couple of years, while everyone has been watching Vladimir Putin’s moves in Eastern Europe, China has been making increasing economic inroads on Russia’s periphery. Its economic dominance of Moscow’s traditional backyard, Central Asia, is well known, but less well known is its growing presence in other areas of Russia’s periphery, such as the Caucasus and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Beijing is pledging tens of billions of dollars of investment and aid and signing major cooperation agreements with everyone from the Republic of Georgia to Romania to Belarus, and in the process is gaining political influence and beginning to reshape the geopolitics of the region. This influence will come at the expense both of Russia and of the West.

The post-Soviet space has long been viewed as an intermediate zone between Russia and the West, and, given the renewed conflict between those protagonists, continues to be viewed as a field of great power interaction and conflict more than as a region important in its own right. The region’s “in between” status is particularly accentuated at present, and the interposition of a major external actor taking up a significant, independent role will undoubtedly add geopolitical complexity to the region, even if the interests of the powerful third party are purely economic. In the case of China, it is doubtful that its ambitions are limited to purely economic concerns, nor that China will be overly deferential to the interests of its erstwhile partner, Russia, when the interests of the two conflict.

Chinese investment from the Caucasus to the CEE states has been warmly welcomed. Georgia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have heretofore been highly dependent on investment and political support from Western Europe and the United States. The inflow of capital and technology from the West has been critical since the end of the Cold War. The economic downturn of 2008 and 2009 illustrated the vulnerability of these economies to such a high level of dependence upon the West – as Western economies struggled, trade and investment dropped significantly. Since then, Western European budgets, which have been significantly constrained by austerity measures, have not allowed for more than a trickle of the massive amount of infrastructure and other investments needed by CEE states, whose economies generally lag far behind those of their Western European partners. Lastly, Russian economic stagnation has also proved a drag on CEE economies. This situation has left the door wide open to Beijing.

In addition to the economic uncertainties, there are also political and security considerations that have made the region open to developing a strong relationship with a powerful external actor such as China. For those that seek EU membership, such as Georgia, there is concern that the EU may never ultimately allow Georgia to join, at least partially out of a Western desire not to further antagonize Moscow. Georgia feels that its longstanding aspirations to align itself more fully with the West are being stymied at a time when concern about aggressive Russian nationalism and revanchism is growing, underpinning Tbilisi’s search for powerful external partners with an obvious strategic logic. Enter China, which, in contrast to the West, has made Georgia feel wanted as a hub for China’s New Silk Road, and has doubtless provided hope that billions of dollars of Chinese investments will give Beijing an interest in supporting Georgian territorial integrity as well as stability in the region more broadly.

China’s investments and interest have been just as warmly received further west. In addition to the contrast between the meager trickle of infrastructure and other investment from their Western partners and economic largesse of Beijing, among CEE states which have in the past few years become EU members, resentment exists caused by the perception that Brussels sees them as decidedly junior partners and does not respect their views. The sense of marginalization within Europe stands in stark contrast to the expression of solicitous interest from Beijing. Signaling the importance Beijing places on its relationships in the region, the Chinese Foreign Ministry created a special secretariat for Central and Eastern Europe in 2012, and each year since 2012 China and its new CEE partners have held a summit in which Chinese investment in the region is discussed, known as the CCEE (China, Central and Eastern Europe) forum, facilitating China’s engagement with the region. At the first summit, held in Warsaw in 2012, China pledged a credit line of $10 billion for projects in central and Eastern Europe. Since then the amount of funding has grown substantially, and along with it, Chinese influence.

Beijing has multiple goals in this massive influx of investment. One is the extension of its New Silk Road economic belt to Europe, which is to facilitate the movement of Chinese exports to Europe. Another is to gain access to Western European technology and R & D through the EU’s back door, Central and Eastern Europe. China is also interested in energy resources, as well as in agricultural resources, given China’s lack of arable land. And given how deeply China is tied to the United States economy, and the sense of vulnerability this creates in Beijing, China sees its growing economic ties with Europe as a hedge against its over-dependence on Washington – hence the large purchases of European sovereign debt to balance Beijing’s massive holdings of US debt.

Chinese investment pledges are steadily transforming the economics and trade flows of the region, with China becoming an increasingly important trade partner. The EU has been China’s largest trade partner for some time. Research by both Chinese and American institutions estimate that investments from China globally will be somewhere between $1 and $2 trillion over the next decade (assuming that China does not experience a particularly hard landing in the meantime and remains capable of sustaining the level of investment it envisions). That number dwarfs investments from the US, Europe, or Western-led multilateral institutions, such as the World Bank and the IMF. China has already spent more than $2 billion in the small country of Serbia alone, mostly in infrastructure and energy.
 
China's Presence in South America Is Considerably Larger Than in Africa, but We Never Hear About It
02/22/2016 12:32 pm ET

China's engagement in Africa is often seen by many observers in a vacuum without a broader understanding of how the relationship compares to Beijing's strategy in other regions of the world. South America, in particular, provides an interesting contrast for how China's engagement is both similar to what it's doing in Africa but also highlights a number of fascinating distinctions.

Dr. Matt Ferchen is a leading expert on Chinese-South American relations. Dr. Ferchen is an associate professor of international relations at the prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing and a resident scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, where he runs the China and the Developing World Program.

Dr. Ferchen joins Eric & Cobus -- in the podcast above -- for the latest installment in our ongoing series of China and the world discussions to compare China's engagement in Africa with what it's doing in Latin and South America.
 
Great analysis @Shotgunner51 as usual.. No agenda just pure facts.. Enjoyed the read.. :tup:

Dont know how i managed to miss this thread before

Thanks! In plain language, China is shifting focus away from current markets to develop new ones. Why? Payment, just as simple as this. If you look at the ever-growing credit/debt imbalance between nations, you will feel the heat.
 

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