Vietnam Defence Forum

[Viet]

I talked with you the shipbuilding industry, and you switched to steel making industry; I talked with you the shrinking new ships demand is hurting every body, and you switched to "we can conquer the difficulty via harder working". Haha, what a skillful debater.

Yes, you post many pictures of the VN-made ships, but it seems that you are NOT clear of the deep difficulty that your country's shipbuilding industry is facing with!! You actually know much less than me, a Chinese that can not read Vietnamese.

Let me reveal you some cruel facts that you would NEVER hear from neither the VCP media, nor the western media. The VCP media doesn't want to tell its people the truth because the VN shipbuilding industry is seen as the core achievement of the VN industrialization; the western media doesn't report it because they simply DON'T care what is happening in your country.

Loot at the following picture. It shows the total orderbook-on-hand of the VN shipbuilding sector. A consecutive drop since 2009. Do you know what it means??

The new ships production 2015 in Vietnam is about 0.6 million GT. So if the new orders doesn't climb up (given the current global economy trend, this is the scenario with the highest probability), and the VN shipyards could just be dependent on the current orderbook, how many months you think your shipbuilding industry could sustain??

View attachment 346460

What's even worse is your deep dependency on the Korean Shipbuilders. Hyundai Vinashin is the core shipyard in Vietnam. Actually Hyundai Vinashin owns ~70% of the total orders of the entire VN shipbuilding industry. But do you have any clue about the financial trouble the company is now facing with?

The table below shows the basic financial figures of Hyundai Vinashin, in the time order of 2012 (bottom line) to 2015 (top line). Hyundai Vinashin reported a KRW 200billion LOSS in total in the past four years (sum of the last row)!! Converted to USD, the loss is 180 million USD.
View attachment 346466

180 million USD loss may not be a big number to Hyundai, if it could earn sufficient profits from its domestic business. But the sad news is, the sudden decline of the new ships market is KILLING Hyundai Shipbuilding. See the below table, although Hyundai targeted to gain 8.5 billion $ new orders in 2016, but its actual achievement by Sept. 2016 is just 1.2 billion $, or 14% of the original target. Do you know what is the consequence resulted by the new order decline to Hyundai? Read the news at: Hyundai Heavy Industries Will Cut Jobs, Sell $1 Billion in Assets

So, on the one side is the loss-making subsidiary in Vietnam; on the other side is the large scale job cutting and assets sales in Korea, if you were a normal Korean that wants to protect the Korean interests, what will you respond??

View attachment 346469


Sorry, the VN advantage you brag simply does NOT work for shipbuilding industry.

I like you. You are one of the most reasonable chinese guys on this forum. ok, building ships obviously needs a lot of steel, doesn´t it? or do you think it is not related? Working harder is not an option for you, either? we talked about the need of Vietnam for more surface warships, just a few moments ago. I am aware of loss making steel makers and loss making shipbuilders in Vietnam, but cutting down to zero is not an option, out of strategic interest. the question is how big or how small Vietnam needs in steel and shipbuilding capacity now and in the future. as for steel, the entire world includes China consumption is 1,488 Mt in 2016 (world steel association), but China alone produces 1,200 Mt. the world´s demand shrinks a bit last year, and expectedly remains flat next year. but nearly all steel makers increase capacity. How will you respond to the overcapacity in China and the world? or everybody bets the competitors will go down the drain? can you tell me how much steel (in metric ton) is needed in China?

I am happy to see Hyundai and other foreign companies operating in Vietnam. no reason for shame.

 

[GS Zhou]

I like you. You are one of the most reasonable chinese guys on this forum. ok, building ships obviously needs a lot of steel, doesn´t it? or do you think it is not related? Working harder is not an option for you, either? we talked about the need of Vietnam for more surface warships, just a few moments ago. I am aware of loss making steel makers and loss making shipbuilders in Vietnam, but cutting down to zero is not an option, out of strategic interest. the question is how big or how small Vietnam needs in steel and shipbuilding capacity now and in the future. as for steel, the entire world includes China consumption is 1,488 Mt in 2016 (world steel association), but China alone produces 1,200 Mt. the world´s demand shrinks a bit last year, and expectedly remains flat next year. but nearly all steel makers increase capacity. How will you respond to the overcapacity in China and the world? or everybody bets the competitors will go down the drain? can you tell me how much steel (in metric ton) is needed in China?

Thanks to your like.

You shift to steel making again. Sigh... Can I call you "Herr Shifter"?

Haha, just a joke. No offense.

This is the thread for Vietnam Military. So I doubt if it is an appropriate place to discuss the China Steel Industry. But since you, the thread creator, raised this open question to me, so I'm happy to share some of my humble views on this topic, but will try to keep it in concise.

• How much steel China produced vs. Global total

According to your data (1,200 vs. 1,488), China's share reaches 80%!! But that's incorrect! China's share is big, but not that big.

The following image comes from the website of World Steel Association. The table shows the by-country steel production in Jan. to Sept. 2016. According to this table, China produced 600 mn tons steel during the period; the total global-wide production volume during the same period is 1,200 million tons. So China's share is 50%. Far smaller than the 80% ratio you show.

• Is China exporting too much steel?

A quick and simple answer: NO!

In 2015,
- 39% of the Japan-made steel goes to export;
- 44% of the S. Korea-made steel goes to export;
- 58% of the Germany-made steel goes to export.
- But what is the ratio to China? 14% only.

• Why China is much less export-dependent than Japan, South Korea or Germany?

Two key reasons:

1. Self-constraint
During Jan. to Sept. 2016, China has closed 36 million ton steel production capacity. 36 million tons! China has done its duty for a more balanced demand vs. supply steel industry. But I don't see other countries are doing the same.

2. We need to satisfy the huge domestic demand
Since only 14% of the China-made steel goes to export, apparently, the rest 86% is produced for domestic consumption.

Why we consume that much steel? Just consider the following.
- We consume 30% of the automobile globally
- We produce 40% of the vessels globally
- We own 2/3 of the high speed rails globally
- We are in the era of building massive infrastructures. For example, in 2015 alone, we built 11,265 km of express ways. I don't know China's exact share of newly-built expressways globally. But this must again be a high share, considering the total length of Germany autobahn is just about 13,000 km (Germany started the autobahn construction since the Nazi era...)
- Given the complexity of mountainous area of our land, we need to build endless bridges, tunnels to solve the basic travel needs of our people. And all these huge projects need huge volume of steel.

List of highest bridges globally, check how many them coming from China
Full list at: http://www.highestbridges.com/wiki/index.php?title=List_of_Highest_International_Bridges/Page_1

Visit the thread about "China Expressways, Highways, Bridges, Infrastructure - News and updates...". You can get more information from this thread.
https://defence.pk/threads/china-ex...idges-infrastructure-news-and-updates.435098/

I don't want to continue the list. Otherwise it will be too off topic. Hope it answers your question on the Chinese steel sector.

 

[Viet]

Thanks to your like.

You shift to steel making again. Sigh... Can I call you "Herr Shifter"?

Haha, just a joke. No offense.

This is the thread for Vietnam Military. So I doubt if it is an appropriate place to discuss the China Steel Industry. But since you, the thread creator, raised this open question to me, so I'm happy to share some of my humble views on this topic, but will try to keep it in concise.

• How much steel China produced vs. Global total

According to your data (1,200 vs. 1,488), China's share reaches 80%!! But that's incorrect! China's share is big, but not that big.

The following image comes from the website of World Steel Association. The table shows the by-country steel production in Jan. to Sept. 2016. According to this table, China produced 600 mn tons steel during the period; the total global-wide production volume during the same period is 1,200 million tons. So China's share is 50%. Far smaller than the 80% ratio you show.

View attachment 346506

• Is China exporting too much steel?

A quick and simple answer: NO!

In 2015,
- 39% of the Japan-made steel goes to export;
- 44% of the S. Korea-made steel goes to export;
- 58% of the Germany-made steel goes to export.
- But what is the ratio to China? 14% only.

• Why China is much less export-dependent than Japan, South Korea or Germany?

Two key reasons:

1. Self-constraint
During Jan. to Sept. 2016, China has closed 36 million ton steel production capacity. 36 million tons! China has done its duty for a more balanced demand vs. supply steel industry. But I don't see other countries are doing the same.

2. We need to satisfy the huge domestic demand
Since only 14% of the China-made steel goes to export, apparently, the rest 86% is produced for domestic consumption.

Why we consume that much steel? Just consider the following.
- We consume 30% of the automobile globally
- We produce 40% of the vessels globally
- We own 2/3 of the high speed rails globally
- We are in the era of building massive infrastructures. For example, in 2015 alone, we built 11,265 km of express ways. I don't know China's exact share of newly-built expressways globally. But this must again be a high share, considering the total length of Germany autobahn is just about 13,000 km (Germany started the autobahn construction since the Nazi era...)
- Given the complexity of mountainous area of our land, we need to build endless bridges, tunnels to solve the basic travel needs of our people. And all these huge projects need huge volume of steel.

List of highest bridges globally, check how many them coming from China
Full list at: http://www.highestbridges.com/wiki/index.php?title=List_of_Highest_International_Bridges/Page_1
View attachment 346520

Visit the thread about "China Expressways, Highways, Bridges, Infrastructure - News and updates...". You can get more information from this thread.
https://defence.pk/threads/china-ex...idges-infrastructure-news-and-updates.435098/

I don't want to continue the list. Otherwise it will be too off topic. Hope it answers your question on the Chinese steel sector.

well, Germany has 13,000 km autobahn without speed limit. if taking other highways with speed limit comparable to China, there will be another 200,000 km you need to add into calculation. but I stop here before we continue with highways

 

[GS Zhou]

well, Germany has 13,000 km autobahn without speed limit. if taking other highways with speed limit comparable to China, there will be another 200,000 km you need to add into calculation. but I stop here before we continue with highways

I have the driving experience in germany. l drove from dusseldorf to friedrichshafen and back to dusseldorf again in one weekend. so I know how the autobahn looks like in germany, and alao how the.expressway network looks in China. you'd better make the comments after you try the expressway in China.

 

[Viet]

I have the driving experience in germany. l drove from dusseldorf to friedrichshafen and back to dusseldorf again in one weekend. so I know how the autobahn looks like in germany, and alao how the.expressway network looks in China. you'd better make the comments after you try the expressway in China.

it is a great feeling isn´t it? driving as fast as you can

as for China, well, one of my family members just came back from China after attending an economics course at a Shanghai university.so I get some fresh stories about China and Chinese people there. although the stories may be incorrect or unsharp because they are seen through the eyes of a Vietnamese, so things may be colored in red and blue instead of black and white. personally I went several times of HK and Macau before handover, seeing the fear in the eyes of the people. as if the communists would eat them alive after taking over.

I think we are off-topic.

 

[GS Zhou]

it is a great feeling isn´t it? driving as fast as you can

as for China, well, one of my family members just came back from China after attending an economics course at a Shanghai university.so I get some fresh stories about China and Chinese people there. although the stories may be incorrect or unsharp because they are seen through the eyes of a Vietnamese, so things may be colored in red and blue instead of black and white. personally I went several times of HK and Macau before handover, seeing the fear in the eyes of the people. as if the communists would eat them alive after taking over.

I think we are off-topic.

why dont make a visit to mainland China? not necessarily shanghai or beijing, some other places, even the least developed part of China, e.g. guizhou, are worth visiting as well.

yes, lets not be off topic too far.

 

[Viet]

why dont make a visit to mainland China? not necessarily shanghai or beijing, some other places, even the least developed part of China, e.g. guizhou, are worth visiting as well.

yes, lets not be off topic too far.

I want to visit Taiwan because it represents "true" China, worth a visit. no offense.

 

[GS Zhou]

I want to visit Taiwan because it represents "true" China, worth a visit. no offense.

welcome to pay a visit to China's Taiwan province.

I also want to make a tour to Saigon, because it represents the 'true' Vietnam.

 

[Silent Knight]

Off topic.

I also like @GS Zhou, the guy seems very reasonable and open-minded, unlike many Chinese people I encountered.

 

[dingyibvs]

first, actually people in VN don´t care, neither do I, what the president of the Philippines does inside and outside of the country. he can be with America or with China, it is not our business. Call him smart as you like. but if I was you, I would think twice before making quick statement, before laying too much trust on a politician in advance. the former president Ferdinand Marcos once threatened to abandon America and ally with USSR. it turns out he just wanted to press more money out of Uncle Sam. I won´t wonder if Durtete has similar thing in mind. How can the Philippines defend against external threat without Navy, No coast guard, no Airforce, No air defence, no nothing? it is really crazy to unilaterally abandon the defender of the country, the US armed forces, just out of a bad mood.

But as said I don´t care.

second, as for rising and declining power, you should at least know not all people share your view. or more precise Chinese centric view. as for VN, it is better if you think twice before bulling our country and people at next best occasion.

That's a good question. Vietnam has only formed an unified nation since the '70s, yet it is way ahead in all those areas than the Philippines, who has had a great relationship with the Americans for over century now. Ever wonder why that is? I personally believe it's smart for the Vietnamese to develop good relationship with the U.S., why would you want to have a bad relationship with any superpower? Similarly for the Filipinos, it makes no sense for them to completely antagonize any superpower, so it's only natural for them to seek a similar path as the Vietnamese and try to make good with everyone. Being completely reliant on only one just means you'll have to rely on that superpower for even coast guard duties.

 

[Nilgiri]

Off topic.

I also like @GS Zhou, the guy seems very reasonable and open-minded, unlike many Chinese people I encountered.

Yes he is worth interacting with and good to learn from.

 

[Aqsuperman]

One of many long term storage facilities, this warehouse contains Type 63 amphibious light tanks, comparable to PT-76 with a bigger gun. These kinds of facilities usually hold plenty of the last century weapons, from T-34 and Su-100 to this day. In this case, its located in the sea region of Vietnam.

 

[Viet]

That's a good question. Vietnam has only formed an unified nation since the '70s, yet it is way ahead in all those areas than the Philippines, who has had a great relationship with the Americans for over century now. Ever wonder why that is? I personally believe it's smart for the Vietnamese to develop good relationship with the U.S., why would you want to have a bad relationship with any superpower? Similarly for the Filipinos, it makes no sense for them to completely antagonize any superpower, so it's only natural for them to seek a similar path as the Vietnamese and try to make good with everyone. Being completely reliant on only one just means you'll have to rely on that superpower for even coast guard duties.

if one knows a bit of the Philippines, the country had seen better days, being in a good shape with people affluent after Japan. but it was Ferdinand Marcos, who looted the country, leading the country to the abyss. Duterte can blame America for all of the country´s deficiencies but it won´t bring back the glorious days. by the way, the US paid 1$ billion a year to the Philippines for the lease of the Subic Bay base before the US boys were forced to pack all stuffs and go home. too bad, the money goes home too. but again, as said, their country, their problem. we in Vietnam have own problems to deal with.

 

[Silent Knight]

The 925th Fighter Regiment with their recently upgraded Su-27UBM (8526). This unit would be the one out of two receiving Su-30SM or Su-35S fighters.

 

[Viet]

The 925th Fighter Regiment with their recently upgraded Su-27UBM (8526). This unit would be the one out of two receiving Su-30SM or Su-35S fighters.

is the airforce still aiming to have 72 Suchoi´s (6 squadrons) in total?