Vietnam Defence Forum

[GS Zhou]

it is one of many ships that is built by the domestic shipbuilder Sbic. Vietnam can build various types of commercial vessels.

thanks for sharing the pictures of the ships. Good progress made by Vietnam!

Unfortunately, the global shipbuilding industry is now in a very very bad time. The top three shipbuilding countries, China, Japan and Korea are all severely hit by the shrinking new orders, other smaller emerging shipbuilding countries, e.g. Vietnam or Turkey, are no exceptions as well.

Look at the following table about new vessel orders by countries. Vietnam captured 562k GT (gross tons) new orders in 2015, but the new orders in 1H-2016 is only 54k GT. Unless the global economy gets recovered (which is a very unlikely scenario), I don't see any chance for a significant growth in new orders in 2H-2016, or even in the next couple of years.

Vietnam's annual shipbuilding volume 2015 was about 600k GT. The total orderbook on hand by mid-2016 of Vietnam is about 1.2 million GT. So the current order can keep the Vietnam shipbuilders busy for the next two years. But what would happen after the two years? Maybe only god knows.

This is the worst thing in the modern economy system: capacity built up, but demand disappeared.

 

[Viet]

thanks for sharing the pictures of the ships. Good progress made by Vietnam!

Unfortunately, the global shipbuilding industry is now in a very very bad time. The top three shipbuilding countries, China, Japan and Korea are all severely hit by the shrinking new orders, other smaller emerging shipbuilding countries, e.g. Vietnam or Turkey, are no exceptions as well.

Look at the following table about new vessel orders by countries. Vietnam captured 562k GT (gross tons) new orders in 2015, but the new orders in 1H-2016 is only 54k GT. Unless the global economy gets recovered (which is a very unlikely scenario), I don't see any chance for a significant growth in new orders in 2H-2016, or even in the next couple of years.
View attachment 346210

Vietnam's annual shipbuilding volume 2015 was about 600k GT. The total orderbook on hand by mid-2016 of Vietnam is about 1.2 million GT. So the current order can keep the Vietnam shipbuilders busy for the next two years. But what would happen after the two years? Maybe only god knows.

This is the worst thing in the modern economy system: capacity built up, but demand disappeared.

I don't know nor do You and only the heaven knows what will happen to our countries in the future. Maybe an alien race appears on earth and enslaves all of us. Ha ha ha. No more South China Sea tension. Good night!

On serious note, comparing Vietnam shipbuilding to other major ship builders as China, Japan and Korea is a bit wide stretched. At least for now. But I know our people, the Vietnamese in general are very ambitious people. We stand far behind? No problem, we must work harder.

 

[GS Zhou]

I don't know nor do You and only the heaven knows what will happen to our countries in the future. Maybe an alien race appears on earth and enslaves all of us. Ha ha ha. No more South China Sea tension. Good night!

On serious note, comparing Vietnam shipbuilding to other major ship builders as China, Japan and Korea is a bit wide stretched. At least for now. But I know our people, the Vietnamese in general are very ambitious people. We stand far behind? No problem, we must work harder.

I never said the VN people are not working hard. In fact, people in East Asia are all working very very hard, no matter China, Japan, Korea or Vietnam.

A cruel fact is, for a less developed country, whether you work hard or not work hard, that means merely nothing to the large global trends. For example, China started to export large volume of ships in 1990s'. But if the ships demand in 1990s' was as weak as its demand today, there is NO chance for China to gain a tremendous progress in shipbuilding industry, no matter how hard we work.

Go back to your shipbuilding industry. The loan is borrowed from the banks by the shipyards companies, the roads are built for the shipyards, all required machinery are installed, workers are also hired. But suddenly, you find the demand on new ships reduced by 70% or even more, what you can do? Yes, you are working very hard, but that can NOT bring the demand to the previous level.

As I just said, in the modern economy system, the worst thing is: capacity is built up, but demand disappeared.

 

[Viet]

I never said the VN people are not working hard. In fact, people in East Asia are all working very very hard, no matter China, Japan, Korea or Vietnam.

A cruel fact is, for a less developed country, whether you work hard or not work hard, that means merely nothing to the large global trends. For example, China started to export large volume of ships in 1990s'. But if the ships demand in 1990s' was as weak as its demand today, there is NO chance for China to gain a tremendous progress in shipbuilding industry, no matter how hard we work.

Go back to your shipbuilding industry. The loan is borrowed from the banks by the shipyards companies, the roads are built for the shipyards, all required machinery are installed, workers are also hired. But suddenly, you find the demand on new ships reduced by 70% or even more, what you can do? Yes, you are working very hard, but that can NOT bring the demand to the previous level.

As I just said, in the modern economy system, the worst thing is: capacity is built up, but demand disappeared.

oh wait a moment. China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined, doesn´t it?

in fact, not only steel but many other half and finished products such as solar cells. Yes, you manufacture many things more than the entire world can ever consume. But does that mean Vietnam should stop producing steel, only relying on importing steel from China? No way. we want to produce steel, too. there are billions of dollars pouring right now into setting up of steel making monsters in Vietnam. the demand is weak, the pie is not increasing for all but shrinking? well, there is a saying in German: die Letzten beißen die Hunde. that will be a race to the bottom. Vietnam advantage is cheap labor cost, educated work force, strategic location, improving business climate and infrastructure.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Vietnam-s-steel-industry-bulks-up-against-China

made in Vietnam steel

 

[Viet]

all three Chinese warships in a picture.

also, not just for sightseeing and taking pictures, the port Cam Ranh offers everything from providing food, fresh water, fuel, rest, maintenance to repair for foreign warships. Including the military umbrella of Vietnam´s armed forces. Would be an interesting event if one of the 4 US aircraft carrier strike groups of the US 3rd fleet visits the bay. Vietnam has more to offer than the Philippines can ever put on the table. however, the situation pretty much depends how the Chinese behave in the south china sea.

 

[Aqsuperman]

In another development, Philippine has finally step up its game. Huyndai has won a bid to provide 2 up to date ships Philippine Navy with the total cost of more than 300 million USD with delivery at 2020. The details are kind of suspicious though. The weapon systems will be installed separately from the ship body. With a normal Incheon class frigate in service with the ROK navy, which is the model that Philipine Navy ordered ships based on, already cost more than 200 million USD per ship, I wonder what is the final look of those ships.

http://www.janes.com/article/64864/...her-details-of-philippine-navy-s-new-frigates

 

[lonelyman]

Total bs, stop day dreaming. What can u offer? Contain China with USA?

First of all, VCP has more sense than keyboard warrior like you, USA will do a regime change in Vietnam at first chance. Second, Philippine is first dominos down, USA is in permanent decline and will be pushed out South China Sea in 10 years, you align with a decline power against a rising power? Duterte Is way smarter than you.

all three Chinese warships in a picture.

also, not just for sightseeing and taking pictures, the port Cam Ranh offers everything from providing food, fresh water, fuel, rest, maintenance to repair for foreign warships. Including the military umbrella of Vietnam´s armed forces. Would be an interesting event if one of the 4 US aircraft carrier strike groups of the US 3rd fleet visits the bay. Vietnam has more to offer than the Philippines can ever put on the table. however, the situation pretty much depends how the Chinese behave in the south china sea.

 

[GS Zhou]

oh wait a moment. China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined, doesn´t it?

in fact, not only steel but many other half and finished products such as solar cells. Yes, you manufacture many things more than the entire world can ever consume. But does that mean Vietnam should stop producing steel, only relying on importing steel from China? No way. we want to produce steel, too. there are billions of dollars pouring right now into setting up of steel making monsters in Vietnam. the demand is weak, the pie is not increasing for all but shrinking? well, there is a saying in German: die Letzten beißen die Hunde. that will be a race to the bottom. Vietnam advantage is cheap labor cost, educated work force, strategic location, improving business climate and infrastructure.

I talked with you the shipbuilding industry, and you switched to steel making industry; I talked with you the shrinking new ships demand is hurting every body, and you switched to "we can conquer the difficulty via harder working". Haha, what a skillful debater.

Yes, you post many pictures of the VN-made ships, but it seems that you are NOT clear of the deep difficulty that your country's shipbuilding industry is facing with!! You actually know much less than me, a Chinese that can not read Vietnamese.

Let me reveal you some cruel facts that you would NEVER hear from neither the VCP media, nor the western media. The VCP media doesn't want to tell its people the truth because the VN shipbuilding industry is seen as the core achievement of the VN industrialization; the western media doesn't report it because they simply DON'T care what is happening in your country.

Loot at the following picture. It shows the total orderbook-on-hand of the VN shipbuilding sector. A consecutive drop since 2009. Do you know what it means??

The new ships production 2015 in Vietnam is about 0.6 million GT. So if the new orders doesn't climb up (given the current global economy trend, this is the scenario with the highest probability), and the VN shipyards could just be dependent on the current orderbook, how many months you think your shipbuilding industry could sustain??

What's even worse is your deep dependency on the Korean Shipbuilders. Hyundai Vinashin is the core shipyard in Vietnam. Actually Hyundai Vinashin owns ~70% of the total orders of the entire VN shipbuilding industry. But do you have any clue about the financial trouble the company is now facing with?

The table below shows the basic financial figures of Hyundai Vinashin, in the time order of 2012 (bottom line) to 2015 (top line). Hyundai Vinashin reported a KRW 200billion LOSS in total in the past four years (sum of the last row)!! Converted to USD, the loss is 180 million USD.

180 million USD loss may not be a big number to Hyundai, if it could earn sufficient profits from its domestic business. But the sad news is, the sudden decline of the new ships market is KILLING Hyundai Shipbuilding. See the below table, although Hyundai targeted to gain 8.5 billion $ new orders in 2016, but its actual achievement by Sept. 2016 is just 1.2 billion $, or 14% of the original target. Do you know what is the consequence resulted by the new order decline to Hyundai? Read the news at: Hyundai Heavy Industries Will Cut Jobs, Sell $1 Billion in Assets

So, on the one side is the loss-making subsidiary in Vietnam; on the other side is the large scale job cutting and assets sales in Korea, if you were a normal Korean that wants to protect the Korean interests, what will you respond??

Vietnam advantage is cheap labor cost, educated work force, strategic location, improving business climate and infrastructure.

Sorry, the VN advantage you brag simply does NOT work for shipbuilding industry.

 

[xiao qi]

I talked with you the shipbuilding industry, and you switched to steel making industry; I talked with you the shrinking new ships demand is hurting every body, and you switched to "we can conquer the difficulty via harder working". Haha, what a skillful debater.

Yes, you post many pictures of the VN-made ships, but it seems that you are NOT clear of the deep difficulty that your country's shipbuilding industry is facing with!! You actually know much less than me, a Chinese that can not read Vietnamese.

Let me reveal you some cruel facts that you would NEVER hear from neither the VCP media, nor the western media. The VCP media doesn't want to tell its people the truth because the VN shipbuilding industry is seen as the core achievement of the VN industrialization; the western media doesn't report it because they simply DON'T care what is happening in your country.

Loot at the following picture. It shows the total orderbook-on-hand of the VN shipbuilding sector. A consecutive drop since 2009. Do you know what it means??

The new ships production 2015 in Vietnam is about 0.6 million GT. So if the new orders doesn't climb up (given the current global economy trend, this is the scenario with the highest probability), and the VN shipyards could just be dependent on the current orderbook, how many months you think your shipbuilding industry could sustain??

View attachment 346460

What's even worse is your deep dependency on the Korean Shipbuilders. Hyundai Vinashin is the core shipyard in Vietnam. Actually Hyundai Vinashin owns ~70% of the total orders of the entire VN shipbuilding industry. But do you have any clue about the financial trouble the company is now facing with?

The table below shows the basic financial figures of Hyundai Vinashin, in the time order of 2012 (bottom line) to 2015 (top line). Hyundai Vinashin reported a KRW 200billion LOSS in total in the past four years (sum of the last row)!! Converted to USD, the loss is 180 million USD.
View attachment 346466

180 million USD loss may not be a big number to Hyundai, if it could earn sufficient profits from its domestic business. But the sad news is, the sudden decline of the new ships market is KILLING Hyundai Shipbuilding. See the below table, although Hyundai targeted to gain 8.5 billion $ new orders in 2016, but its actual achievement by Sept. 2016 is just 1.2 billion $, or 14% of the original target. Do you know what is the consequence resulted by the new order decline to Hyundai? Read the news at: Hyundai Heavy Industries Will Cut Jobs, Sell $1 Billion in Assets

So, on the one side is the loss-making subsidiary in Vietnam; on the other side is the large scale job cutting and assets sales in Korea, if you were a normal Korean that wants to protect the Korean interests, what will you respond??

View attachment 346469


Sorry, the VN advantage you brag simply does NOT work for shipbuilding industry.

Thank for your sharing , so What do you think Vietnam should do in the near future to protect our shipbuilding manufactory?

 

[Nilgiri]

Thank for your sharing , so What do you think Vietnam should do in the near future to protect our shipbuilding manufactory?

Long time no see, hope you are well my dear.

 

[xiao qi]

Long time no see, hope you are well my dear.

I'm well, bro, I'm still here to see our section

 

[Viet]

Total bs, stop day dreaming. What can u offer? Contain China with USA?

First of all, VCP has more sense than keyboard warrior like you, USA will do a regime change in Vietnam at first chance. Second, Philippine is first dominos down, USA is in permanent decline and will be pushed out South China Sea in 10 years, you align with a decline power against a rising power? Duterte Is way smarter than you.

first, actually people in VN don´t care, neither do I, what the president of the Philippines does inside and outside of the country. he can be with America or with China, it is not our business. Call him smart as you like. but if I was you, I would think twice before making quick statement, before laying too much trust on a politician in advance. the former president Ferdinand Marcos once threatened to abandon America and ally with USSR. it turns out he just wanted to press more money out of Uncle Sam. I won´t wonder if Durtete has similar thing in mind. How can the Philippines defend against external threat without Navy, No coast guard, no Airforce, No air defence, no nothing? it is really crazy to unilaterally abandon the defender of the country, the US armed forces, just out of a bad mood.

But as said I don´t care.

second, as for rising and declining power, you should at least know not all people share your view. or more precise Chinese centric view. as for VN, it is better if you think twice before bulling our country and people at next best occasion.

 

[GS Zhou]

Thank for your sharing , so What do you think Vietnam should do in the near future to protect our shipbuilding manufactory?

Thanks to your "Thanks". (sounds a bit funny, haha)

You really want to hear my advice? I don't think my advice could entertain you, to be honest.

 

[xiao qi]

Thanks to your "Thanks". (sounds a bit funny, haha)

You really want to hear my advice? I don't think my advice could entertain you, to be honest.

Really, Why not? You can answer or not If you want

 

[GS Zhou]

Really, Why not? You can answer or not If you want

Fine, thanks for your trust.

My suggestions to the Vietnam Shipbuilding sector:

• Be very very careful to the new investment to shipbuilding industry. I don't want to say to stop all new investment, you definitely don't want to hear it. But I do think Vietnam government should be more and more cautious on approving any new investment to this sector. It is now becoming more and more difficult to find sufficient new demand to feed the existing capacity, needless to say feeding any new capacity.

• Request the state-owned shipping company to place orders to the domestic shipyards. The difficulty here is, the pocket-size of the VN state-owned shipping company is too small to feed the domestic yard. In addition, price of the second-hand ship is eroding very fast. So for many small shipping companies with financial constraints, they usually prefer to purchase second hand ships, rather than new ships. So if VCP really wants to push the SOE shipping companies to procure domestically-made new ships, VCP, or eventually the tax payers like you, will have to finance the procurement.

• Give fiscal subsidies to foreign investors, like Hyundai Vinashin. I believe VCP has already offered big tickets subsidies to Hyundai Vinashin, otherwise it is really difficult to convince the Korean guys to stay in Vietnam. In the end, Hyundai comes to Vietnam for making profits, not for making charity. Right?

• Pray for a sudden recovery of the global economy. This is the easiest way, but I really doubt its usefulness.