Vietnam building deterrent against China in disputed seas with submarines

[Aepsilons]

You still buying your govt propaganda. Will power did not help in 1988. And when a saturated missile strike comes your way, your will power will not do any good either. The only thing your will power could do is to shake your fist towards the sky and curse.

Their will power allowed them to deliver a decimating defeat to the French in Bien Dien Phu, the same will power allowed them to effect a psychological blow during the Tet Offensive. The same will power allowed them to reunify North and South Vietnam. The same will power enabled local militias to conduct a guerrilla warfare tactic against overwhelming Chinese military firepower in '79.

They (Vietnamese) are a small nation, but with the brevity of a tiger despite overwhelming odds.

 

[William Hung]

mostly just assumptions but
-6 improved kilo
-assume each has 8-12 Klub-S
-48/72 missiles in total
-assume 3M-54E is superior to Exocet used in Falklands war (can easily kill a Frigate, 1 needed to disable a destroyer 2 to sink it)
-assume a few can carry 3M-54E1 with a 400KG warhead these would target China aircraft carrier
if those 6 improved kilos are active in the right positions and depending on hell well Klub-S performs against China's anti-ship missile system you could see a few dozen ships destroyed in a matter of days, especially with the U.S spy satellites watching her movements in the South China Sea.

I don't remember the exact number either but let's assume your max figure.

And assume that all 6 Kilos are out in the combat arena. (eventhough usually 2 subs are always at dock for maintenance, etc)

And assume all 6 subs are invincible to enemy ASW. So I'm being very very generous here.

So you have 72 Clubs total. Usually they are fired in silos of 4 or more, but assume they only need to be fired in a silo of 2 missile each time with a kill rate of 1 in 2. Again, being very generous here.

So fired in silos of two, you get 36 strike from your total 72. One out of every 2 strikes is a success kill. That means you get 18 kill.

It is actually not much if you see how many ships the PLAN has. Not worth it if the consequence is a total annihilation of your military infrastructure. Heck I don't even think 36 kills is worth it.

Just playing armchair general here, realistically, the outcome would not be as simple and smooth like a war game.

 

[NiceGuy]

You are a funny guy spamming that single source everywhere you go.

The US bombing campaign bought north VN to its knees. You have to beg the US to stop by pretending you want to negotiate. Your country's infrastructure was destroyed. You have delusion about Dien Bien Phu in the Air victory but it is pure propaganda. Your air defence force failed to protect your infrastructure.

The only reason your govt could continue your war effort after the US bombing campaign was because your strategy mainly consists of sending hundreds of thousands of foot soldiers down the trail to be slaughtered.

Fast-forward to today. If China do surgical strikes against all your military infrastructures, what are you going to do next? send hundreds and thousands of foot soldiers swimming out to the SCS to get slaughtered like 1960-70s and 1988??

First, its not a spam, its a true sad incident to 11 Chinese troops that happened in 1990.

Second: Our goal in VN war is to kick US army out and defeat puppet S.VN govt. Operation Linebacker 2 in 1972 gave US a chance to go home with the head held high, but its still a shameful retreat for US and lead to the lost of its S.VN puppet.

We archived all of our Goals in VN war (kick US army out and defeat puppet S.VN govt) when US lost all of their goal (could not stay in S.VN to control the SCS(east sea) & lost its ally) , we feel happy enough. We dont care if some low IQ like u say we lost this, lost that.

Now, our new Goals r to unify sub-Mekong region (temporary failed in 1979 due to the war with China and US's sanction) and keep controlling the SCS(east sea). U can keep balh balh blah, but who cares ?? We still control the largest and the most important part in SCS(east sea) now and our plan to unify the sub-Mekong region is going well with more support from Thai general.

Just like Master Karl Marx said: 'Segui il tuo corso et lascia dir les genti--------------------------"Just keep going, who cares the dogs bark ??"

 

[hans]

The Chinese people used think so that with strong mind, we can defeat enemy.
But nowadays, with technical advancement, this kind of spirit will help on nothing...
You will get killed without seeing the enemy..

Of course our will power will do nothing against the strike, but it will help dealing with the aftermath. A house gets destroyed by the missle, we build it up against. No medicine to help the injured? We skip lunches to save money to buy some. Working overtime to produce an extra bucket of bulllets, without taking the extra wages, etc. We can do all sort of things with will power alone, and when those things combined, it will be more effective than anythings in our asenal. (Sorry for the messy grammar, I am light-headed today)

 

[C130]

I don't remember the exact number either but let's assume your max figure.

And assume that all 6 Kilos are out in the combat arena. (eventhough usually 2 subs are always at dock for maintenance, etc)

And assume all 6 subs are invincible to enemy ASW. So I'm being very very generous here.

So you have 72 Clubs total. Usually they are fired in silos of 4 or more, but assume they only need to be fired in a silo of 2 missile each time with a kill rate of 1 in 2. Again, being very generous here.

So fired in silos of two, you get 36 strike from your total 72. One out of every 2 strikes is a success kill. That means you get 18 kill.

It is actually not much if you see how many ships the PLAN has. Not worth it if the consequence is a total annihilation of your military infrastructure. Heck I don't even think 36 kills is worth it.

Just playing armchair general here, realistically, the outcome would not be as simple and smooth like a war game.

the X factor would be U.S intelligence. so out of those 18 confirmed kills you could target the most powerful PLAN ships instead of outdated ships from the 80's and 90's

so taking out all type 052D and 052C is main priority.
stalking and taking out China's replenishment ships should also be undertaken
Type 903 replenishment ship - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[xesy]

The Chinese people used think so that with strong mind, we can defeat enemy.
But nowadays, with technical advancement, this kind of spirit will help on nothing...
You will get killed without seeing the enemy..

As long as there are other who will pick up the riffle from our fallen bodies and fight, we are more than happy to die. To keep the fire burning for the whole nation, some must jump into the fire.

 

[hans]

Well, without support from China and Russia, it is impossible for VN to fight French and US.
Massive number of VN soldier get killed in each operation.

Their will power allowed them to deliver a decimating defeat to the French in Bien Dien Phu, the same will power allowed them to effect a psychological blow during the Tet Offensive. The same will power allowed them to reunify North and South Vietnam. The same will power enabled local militias to conduct a guerrilla warfare tactic against overwhelming Chinese military firepower in '79.

They (Vietnamese) are a small nation, but with the brevity of a tiger despite overwhelming odds.

Then many of you get killed without change anything..
Its high tech wars now. This kind of sacrifice will make your people only painful..
It can hardly change anything

As long as there are other who will pick up the riffle from our fallen bodies and fight, we are more than happy to die. To keep the fire burning for the whole nation, some must jump into the fire.

 

[xesy]

I don't remember the exact number either but let's assume your max figure.

And assume that all 6 Kilos are out in the combat arena. (eventhough usually 2 subs are always at dock for maintenance, etc)

And assume all 6 subs are invincible to enemy ASW. So I'm being very very generous here.

So you have 72 Clubs total. Usually they are fired in silos of 4 or more, but assume they only need to be fired in a silo of 2 missile each time with a kill rate of 1 in 2. Again, being very generous here.

So fired in silos of two, you get 36 strike from your total 72. One out of every 2 strikes is a success kill. That means you get 18 kill.

It is actually not much if you see how many ships the PLAN has. Not worth it if the consequence is a total annihilation of your military infrastructure. Heck I don't even think 36 kills is worth it.

Just playing armchair general here, realistically, the outcome would not be as simple and smooth like a war game.

Dude, saying like that you totally ignore the concept of guerilla warfare and psychological warfare, which VN actually prefers over conventional warfare. One sub in the region, how many ships will be sent out there looking for it? How many ships could commit to battle without defending their backs against a potential deadly enemy? And even if you manage keep the area secured, the question becomes how long can you do that? When you lower the guard our subs can move in again. The threat of being attack is actually the main purpose of VNese subs, to the offensive capability.

 

[hans]

Why you are so sensitive about 052 series...
It is for air defense..
I don`t believe there will be any VN aircraft that can still operate if there is a first attack...
VN submarine may have a chance to fire before being sunk...

the X factor would be U.S intelligence. so out of those 18 confirmed kills you could target the most powerful PLAN ships instead of outdated ships from the 80's and 90's

so taking out all type 052D and 052C is main priority.
stalking and taking out China's replenishment ships should also be undertaken

 

[NiceGuy]

Well, without support from China and Russia, it is impossible for VN to fight French and US.
Massive number of VN soldier get killed in each operation.

Then, its impossible for French to recolonize VN without US-UK's support , its impossible for US to set foot on VN without their allies help like Thailand-S.VN-SK-Aussie-NATO, too.

Massive number of VN soldier get killed coz France-US got superior weapons, just like Massive number of Soviet soldier get killed by Nazi, but just like Soviet, VN still is the one who archive all Goals in the wars

 

[xesy]

Well, without support from China and Russia, it is impossible for VN to fight French and US.
Massive number of VN soldier get killed in each operation.



Then many of you get killed without change anything..
Its high tech wars now. This kind of sacrifice will make your people only painful..
It can hardly change anything

Yeah, a bunch of troops with riffles and light exlosive goes against tanks, artillery and air supported fortified US position. The casualities were unimaginable. Even toward the end of the war our casualities were still massive. Yet we never gave up. Chinese and Soviet weapons didn't bring us that will power. Our people were born with that will power.
High casualities didn't stop us, and won't stop us fighting. Will power won't help us win the war, but it will keep us fighting. And when people still fights, there is always a chance of winning.

 

[C130]

Why you are so sensitive about 052 series...
It is for air defense..
I don`t believe there will be any VN aircraft that can still operate if there is a first attack...
VN submarine may have a chance to fire before being sunk...

you take out the 052 then the SU-30MK can strike from the air.

 

[hans]

Germany has proved that only submarine operating in enemy control sea will not work.
Modern anti-sub aircraft, ships can easily trace the submarine once it float on surface or attack.
Unless you stay at bottom without firing, you may survive...

Dude, saying like that you totally ignore the concept of guerilla warfare and psychological warfare, which VN actually prefers over conventional warfare. One sub in the region, how many ships will be sent out there looking for it? How many ships could commit to battle without defending their backs against a potential deadly enemy? And even if you manage keep the area secured, the question becomes how long can you do that? When you lower the guard our subs can move in again. The threat of being attack is actually the main purpose of VNese subs, to the offensive capability.

 

[William Hung]

the X factor would be U.S intelligence. so out of those 18 confirmed kills you could target the most powerful PLAN ships instead of outdated ships from the 80's and 90's

so taking out all type 052D and 052C is main priority.
stalking and taking out China's replenishment ships should also be undertaken
Type 903 replenishment ship - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So the greatest result the Viet Kilo could achieve is to reduce some PLAN assets for the US.

Because after the first strike, VN will have more to loose than gain.

Btw, not all 052 are stationed in one place. Each fleet has a mix of old and new, small corvettes and big frigates, etc.

 

[C130]

So the greatest result the Viet Kilo could achieve is to reduce some PLAN assets for the US.

Because after the first strike, VN will have more to loose than gain.

Btw, not all 052 are stationed in one place. Each fleet has a mix of old and new, small corvettes and big frigates, etc.

it's pretty obvious Vietnam can't beat China in a protracted war, but they can severely diminish her Navy and reputation.