‘US to collapse in July 2010’

[ejaz007]

‘US to collapse in July 2010’
Tuesday, September 01, 2009


MOSCOW: You think of the United States as the world’s leading superpower? Well think again, says Igor Panarin, a professor at the Russian foreign ministry’s diplomatic academy.

For Panarin, who has built an academic reputation in Russia for apocalyptic predictions of the imminent US demise, Moscow’s ex-Cold War rival is on the brink of economic, political and social cataclysm.

“The probability that the United States will cease to exist in July 2010 is greater than 50 percent,” he declared at a news conference on Monday. “The results of the current financial year will shock investors.”

Panarin did not share the hopes of US President Barack Obama’s supporters that he would lead the world into a new era of change.

“Obama has the mentality of a social worker: He talks well but he has never managed anything. He will lead the United States towards a crash,” said the academic.

For Panarin, the United States was on the verge of none other than a “psychological catastrophe”.And the reasons? It all started with Hurricane Katrina. The United States is overwhelmed by single parent families. Its prisons are full. Young people are violent. And oh yes, it has too many homosexuals.

He compared the current situation of the United States under Obama to that of the Soviet Union under its last leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

“The US debt has multiplied seven times in 11 years. Under Gorbachev the Soviet debt increased by a factor of five.”

Vladimir Mamontov, the editor-in-chief of the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia where the news conference was held, moved to distance himself from the remarks. He publishes Panarin’s opinions since “irreverent versions of events help readers to surf through all the more montonous information.”

Feodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in global politics and one of the country’s top foreign policy experts, said such forecasts were of no value for specialists. “People with an artistic spirit have a rich imagination,” he commented.

While Panarin’s views are highly marginal, there are plenty of more mainstream pro-Kremlin analysts in Moscow happy to point out the weaknesses of the United States and the strengths of Russia as a great post-Soviet power.

‘US to collapse in July 2010’

 

[NSG Commando]

Come on this is just a rumor, USA has assets that It can run its country in war for more than 3 years ...... This is just sick

 

[jeypore]

“The US debt has multiplied seven times in 11 years.”

Ones just needs to realize the study of second best country interms of GDP, ofcourse I am talking about the debt structure.

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

If you look at human history no power and empire remained for ever.

USA is military very powerful and for next ten years no competition for its conventional weapons but after its deficit crosses the mark of 5 trillion( half of their budget), yes economically it will weaken and by than probably the oil will be sold in some other stable currency.

with in ten years US infrastructure will be needing complete overhaul will they have the cash to pay the bills.

 

[jeypore]

If you look at human history no power and empire remained for ever.

USA is military very powerful and for next ten years no competition for its conventional weapons but after its deficit crosses the mark of 5 trillion( half of their budget), yes economically it will weaken and by than probably the oil will be sold in some other stable currency.

with in ten years US infrastructure will be needing complete overhaul will they have the cash to pay the bills.

Just to make you fill comfortable the US Federal deficit stands at more then 10 trillion. It is fight against inflation/deflation more then you think.

Anyways that prediction of Oil currency trading, predict but look at forecasting that will help you more!!!

Regards..

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

jeypore There is difference between debt (11 trillion)and budget deficit

Deficit is the difference of money have and money needed for annual budget, which is for USA right now 1.5 trillion

 

[Awesome]

I don't think it will cease to exist like snap. When it happens it will be a slow decline of about 50 years or something.

If the results of the current financial year are shocking by July 2010, then it may be a big blow by turning the recession into a depression. That itself would be a big blow to the economy.

Of course all of this would be reflected world over, not just the US.

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Of course all of this would be reflected world over, not just the US.

China and India has shown growth during US recession

 

[jeypore]

jeypore There is difference between debt (11 trillion)and budget deficit

Deficit is the difference of money have and money needed for annual budget, which is for USA right now 1.5 trillion

I know what a deficit is!!!!

Are you trying to teach me or I am trying to teach you. I thought that a collapse of American economy is going to happen in July 2010. Are you not predicting the future based on budget deficit made in 2009, hummmmmmmmmmm!!!!!

Anyways that 1.5 trillion figure is in your mind because that is what President Obama has agreed to spent on to revive the US economy.

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Sorry jeypore to hurt your ego , Why do you think you know more then me oh Indian ego.

Yes US have brought deficit down from estimated 1.7 to 1.5 for next fiscal year

and I feel no comfort in US economy down turn, typical bias comment

 

[SecularHumanist]

By July of next year? Good joke

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

I know what a deficit is!!!!

Are you trying to teach me or I am trying to teach you. I thought that a collapse of American economy is going to happen in July 2010. Are you not predicting the future based on budget deficit made in 2009, hummmmmmmmmmm!!!!!

Anyways that 1.5 trillion figure is in your mind because that is what President Obama has agreed to spent on to revive the US economy.

sorry mind reader I was student of economies once unlike you I know what fiscal deficit and national debt is and I read like the articles below.

Obama Raises 2010 Deficit Estimate to $1.5 Trillion
y Roger Runningen and Brian Faler

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion next year, both higher than previous Obama administration forecasts because of a recession that was deeper and longer than expected, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said.

The Office of Management and Budget forecasts a weaker economic recovery than it saw in May as the gross domestic product shrinks 2.8 percent this year before expanding 2 percent next year, according to the administration’s mid-year economic review issued today. The Congressional Budget Office, in a separate assessment, forecast the economy will grow 2.8 percent next year. Both see the GDP expanding 3.8 percent in 2011.

“While the danger of the economy immediately falling into a deep recession has receded, the American economy is still in the midst of a serious economic downturn,” the White House report said. “The long-term deficit outlook remains daunting.”

The budget shortfall for 2010 would mark the second straight year of trillion-dollar deficits. Along with the unemployment numbers, the deficit may complicate President Barack Obama’s drive for his top domestic priority, overhauling the U.S. health care system.

“It throws a wrench in health-care reforms,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in an interview. “No matter the specific numbers, they’re a constant reminder that we’re in bad, bad shape.”

Spending Caps

House Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio seized on the estimates to call for the Democrat-controlled Congress to impose “strict annual caps on federal spending.”

The health-care overhaul “is just the latest in a long line of expensive Democratic experiments that will add to the deficit, raise taxes on families and small businesses and cost more American jobs,” Boehner said in a statement.

The two budget agencies say the shortfall is being driven by the recession as outlays rise for unemployment compensation, food stamps or other programs meant to stabilize the economy rise and tax receipts fall.

Administration and congressional budget officials expect the unemployment rate, which was 9.4 percent last month, to keep rising. White House officials said the rate likely will rise to 10 percent by the end of 2009, averaging 9.3 percent for the entire year. It will worsen to a 9.8 percent average in 2010 instead of the 7.9 percent estimate in May.

The CBO report also estimates the 2009 jobless rate at 9.3 percent. It puts next year’s average at 10.2 percent.

Deficit Projections

The OMB raised its deficit projection for fiscal 2010, which begins Oct. 1, from the $1.26 trillion forecast in May, reflecting slower economic growth this year and next because of “the severity of the crisis in the U.S. and in our trading partners,” said Christina Romer, White House chief economist, who along with Orszag briefed reporters on the report.

The median estimate of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey completed Aug. 21 was for a fiscal year 2010 deficit of $1.3 trillion.

The outlook for the 2009 fiscal year is slightly better than the previous forecast. The government’s shortfall will peak this year at $1.58 trillion before narrowing over the next decade. That is less than the $1.84 trillion projected in May because budget officials were able to delete hundreds of billions of dollars that had been set aside for bank bailouts.

Last year’s deficit was $459 billion.

The CBO estimates the budget deficit will total $1.6 trillion this year, or 11.2 percent of the GDP, and $1.4 trillion in 2010.

Bailout Money

“The Obama White House deserves some credit for managing the financial situation so that the additional bailout wasn’t necessary,” said Stan Collender, a former budget analyst for the House and Senate budget committees.

Orszag said reining in the deficit is a “top priority” of the administration. He said the budget blueprint Obama submits to Congress in February will “include proposals to put the nation back on a fiscally sustainable path.” He declined to give specifics.

The OMB added almost $2 trillion to the 10-year deficit from its May forecast, to $9.05 trillion. The nonpartisan CBO’s long-range projection was $7.14 trillion. The difference stems from the CBO’s assumption that tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 will expire on schedule in 2011. Obama has promised to keep the lower tax rates for middle-income Americans.

Market Reaction

“The market will view this as a very consensus-oriented forecast” and there won’t be any significant reaction, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Zandi predicted Congress will pass a second “mini” stimulus bill next year of about $250 billion to aid jobless workers, state governments and home buyers. “The economy will be growing at an uncomfortably slow rate, not enough to bring down unemployment, and of course it’s an election year” for Congress, he said.

Orszag defended the trillion-dollar deficits during a recession and said they shouldn’t be used to block the administration’s health-care initiative. Revising the way the nation pays for medical care will help save money, he said.

“I know there are going to be some who say this report proves we can’t afford health reform,” Orszag said. “I think that has it backwards” because savings must be squeezed from the system.

Back to Growth

Even with economic conditions worse that originally forecast, Romer said “we do expect positive GDP growth by the end of this year” for the fourth quarter as the economy reaches “a turning point.”

“A return to employment growth will take longer,” Romer said, adding that the jobless rate likely will peak in the fourth quarter of this year.

Romer said the economic stimulus package probably is adding “between 2 and 3 percentage points” to economic growth in the second quarter of this year, blunting conditions that would have been worse. A report on the effect of the stimulus program is due to Congress next month, she said.

Inflation will remain subdued. Projections for the consumer price index show a contraction of 0.7 percent this year, a rise of 1.4 percent next year and 1.5 percent in 2011, Romer said.

The economic assumptions were compiled by the Council of Economic Advisers, Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget. The estimates reflect conditions as of early June.

To contact the reporters on this story: Roger Runningen in Washington at rrunningen@bloomberg.netBrian Faler in Washington at bfaler@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 25, 2009 15:48 EDT

Obama Raises 2010 Deficit Estimate to $1.5 Trillion (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

 

[TaimiKhan]

White House and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that this year's federal budget deficit will top $1.58 trillion, less than projected this spring but still historically high -- high enough to pose serious problems for President Barack Obama's agenda.

Advertisement

Republicans quickly pounced on the latest numbers, which would shatter the previous deficit record, set last year, of $455 billion.

"The alarm bells on our nation's fiscal condition have now become a siren," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

The Budget Office had some good news, predicting that the economy would grow at an annual rate of 1.6% in the second half of this year.

It saw unemployment, 9.4% last month, averaging 10.2% next year before falling to 9.1% in 2011.

Headlines: U.S. budget deficit to top $1.58 trillion this year | Detroit Free Press | Freep.com

 

[rehan.abid]

“The probability that the United States will cease to exist in July 2010 is greater than 50 percent,”

Perhaps it should be taken as joke of the year. Budgetary deficit or in other other words deficit spending is mode to stimulate the economy to come out of the recession phase. Some of the other tools used are decrease in discount (interest) rates.
Americans have the largest defence export industry in the world, they have some thing that no other country has namely "GREEN BUCK", they could always print more of it.
Downside of printing more money would decrease the value of currency in circulation thus have a positive impact on inflation means inflation should increase, but look how they balance it by cutting down the interest rates and their current inflation expectation for 2009 is just 1.89%.
US's debt burden is increasing yes thats true but it doesnt mean its not managable. With defence industry, technology, right infratstructure, justice system and green buck on their side I have serious doubts that we are going to see the end of US next year.
It takes more than just an economic melt down for a country to cease to exist.

 

[TaimiKhan]

“The probability that the United States will cease to exist in July 2010 is greater than 50 percent,”

Perhaps it should be taken as joke of the year. Budgetary deficit or in other other words deficit spending is mode to stimulate the economy to come out of the recession phase. Some of the other tools used are decrease in discount (interest) rates.
Americans have the largest defence export industry in the world, they have some thing that no other country has namely "GREEN BUCK", they could always print more of it.
Downside of printing more money would decrease the value of currency in circulation thus have a positive impact on inflation means inflation should increase, but look how they balance it by cutting down the interest rates and their current inflation expectation for 2009 is just 1.89%.
US's debt burden is increasing yes thats true but it doesnt mean its not managable. With defence industry, technology, right infratstructure, justice system and green buck on their side I have serious doubts that we are going to see the end of US next year.
It takes more than just an economic melt down for a country to cease to exist.

In today's world economic meltdown is the major factor for the downfall of any nation or country.

Having a defense sector doesn't mean they can survive on it. What do you think US will do, selling weapons to everyone ?? You need buyers to sell weapons. When buyers don't have money how will they buy ?? US weapons are pretty expensive & they don't sell to anyone knocking on their door.

As for Green bucks, it is not so easy to print bucks whenever u need, printing more bucks mean more troubles.

A good analysis of the problems faced by the dollar can be checked out in the below thread.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...eats-facing-u-s-dollar-2009-a.html#post466301