AgNoStiC MuSliM
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Yes, but thats a bigger leap of faih and 'hope' than the argument that IF India and Pakistan resolve Kashmir the rivalry loses a lot of the hostility and therfore heralds an era of peace, cooperation and therfore economic prosperity and development in the region.I'm not sure either, but if it does happen (i.e. after the fact), then the resulting geopolitical scenario would definitely be more stable than the current one.
The 'Resolving Kashmir' argument atleast is accepted by both India and Pakistan, and the process exists, unlike the 'form a cohesive Afghanistan by imposing the will of 40% over the remaining 60%, hope the cohesion lasts long enough for Afghanistan to pose a challenge to Pakistan as a viable state, and then manage to instigate a majority of the Pakistani Pashtun to revolt against Pakistan.'
I understand that it is one scenario, its been discussed quite frequently on this board - Ralph Peters map and all - but it remains unviable IMO for the reasons I mentioned. Imposing the will of the Pashtun on the other ethnicities, even through 'bribes' etc. is an unnatural way to run a state - its been tried and failed in Afghanistan, Pakistan (East Pakistan, Baluchistan some would argue) and elsewhere.I'm not making any leap of faith at all. I am simply stating one of the possible outcomes of the current situation.
Infact, my whole point is that Pakistan is trying NOT to let this scenario play out by trying to undermine NATO efforts in Afghanistan, so essentially we are in agreement.
NATO isn't thinking beyond the question "how to stabilize Afghanistan". That is its primary concern. Of course, there are dozens of papers by various American analysts and other think-tanks that outline a number of political scenarios, but they have little or no bearing on its current decision to try and create an independent, democratic Afghanistan with a strong central government.
But why is stabilizing Afghanistan a concern for NATO? Just for kicks or is it because an unstable Afghanistan allows for AQ and assorted ant-West groups to pereptrate attacks against Western interests? If it is the threat to Western interests, then the destabilization of Pakistan and the region, through an expansionist Afghanistan, only adds to the space such groups have and allows them to expand and acquire resources in far greater magnitudes then they currently possess.
It invovles destabilizing and destroying a nation (Pakistan) essentially reducing it to what Afghanistan is now, and then hoping that somehow 'regional peace' wil be salvaged from the ruins.
If such drastic regional reorganization is necessary, I'd argue that the proposal to reorganize Afghanistan and holding referendums in the various Pashtun provinces over joining Pakistan is far more viable and accomplishes the same. You said India won't like it, but the West isn't in this for India, they are in it for themselves. As you said, stabilizing Afghanistan (or the territories comprising Afghanistan) is their priority, so why would they care if India opposes such a solution that allows them to extricate themselves and stabilize the region?