US sends F-22s from Alaska to Guam

[ahfatzia]

and if US honors the treaty, then?

Makes no different, Japan still will be badly hurt economically. If the US joins in the fight and China backs out, the people in China will chase Japanese companies out of the country and it'll make both countries hard to do businesses in the future.

 

[Abhishek_]

Makes no different, Japan still will be badly economically. If the US joins in the fight and China backs out, the people in China will chase Japanese companies out of the country and it'll make both countries hard to do businesses in the future.

i meant to hint at a détente, i see the whole situation as posturing. i highly doubt either side is interested in fighting, instead they are playing brinkmanship to make the other side back down.
from the looks of US is also moving its war assets in place to assist japan. my guess, china will have to back out of hostilities.
whether or not this results in economic retaliation is another matter of speculation.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

Makes no different, Japan still will be badly hurt economically. If the US joins in the fight and China backs out, the people in China will chase Japanese companies out of the country and it'll make both countries hard to do businesses in the future.

I think, If all Japanese companies pull out from China, that is also a damage not less to Chinese economy.

 

[ahfatzia]

i meant to hint at a détente, i see the whole situation as posturing. i highly doubt either side is interested in fighting, instead they are playing brinkmanship to make the other side back down.
from the looks of US is also moving its war assets in place to assist japan. my guess, china will have to back out of hostilities.
whether or not this results in economic retaliation is another matter of speculation.

I think Japan will back down first and tries to negotiate a status-quo with China and both countries will leave the islands untouched. Japan has far greater loses than China to take any kind of chances.


@ Bach Dang

Read my previous posts. I did say China is going to get hurt but to Japan, it's fatal.

 

[Abhishek_]

I think Japan will back down first and tries to negotiate a status-quo with China and both countries will leave the islands untouched. Japan has far greater loses than China to take any kind of chances.

no issues here, I've made my speculation just as you did. let's see who comes out correct.
PS: since we know how important it is for us asians not to lose face, we may see a joint declaration towards peaceful negotiations and the general public may never know who blinked first.

 

[Edevelop]

Doesn't make much difference. China has J-20s:

 

[KRAIT]

^
Its still in prototype stage. Lets be realistic. Even US has more F-35 prototype than J-20, forget even 180 + F-22.
So it will be better if discussion remains realistic.

 

[Abhishek_]

Doesn't make much difference. China has J-20s:

cheerleading much?

 

[Roybot]

I think Japan will back down first and tries to negotiate a status-quo with China and both countries will leave the islands untouched. Japan has far greater loses than China to take any kind of chances.

Economically or Militarily?

 

[ahfatzia]

Economically or Militarily?

Our whole conversation was based on economical perspective.

 

[Oldman1]

Like I said, Oldman, China is going to be hurt but not fatally. If Japanese companies do leave there will be many more from other countries will take up the slags and if not, China has enough resources to pick up some of the companies. After a few years thing will be back to normal. Japan's market is big but Chinese market will get bigger soon enough.

On the other hand Japan will plunge into recession and just like the 80s she might not ever come back.


@ Vitchilo

You hit it right on the nail. No one, including most Chinese would've though China reacts this way. In fact Noda's intention was to calm the Chinese down and takes the eccentric Tokyo mayor out of the lime light and was thinking China would take it as such.

Can't take up the slack for cheap labor force when other countries in South East Asia could provide it. Millions of Chinese with no money means the market is dry when they can't buy foreign branded products.

 

[Edevelop]

^
Its still in prototype stage. Lets be realistic. Even US has more F-35 prototype than J-20.

So it will be better if discussion remains realistic.

F-22s are suffering from oxygen issues. BTW, how can you be so sure about the current number of jets shown to the world. It doesn't necessarily have to be correct. China has reached its aerospace industry and mass production to an unbelievable pace. If you want to talk about prototypes than let us also include J-21 (another stealth jet), J-16, J-15, J-10B etc....

 

[Oldman1]

Makes no different, Japan still will be badly hurt economically. If the US joins in the fight and China backs out, the people in China will chase Japanese companies out of the country and it'll make both countries hard to do businesses in the future.

As well as the U.S. A possible war leads to sanctions against Chinese made products which China depended on significantly with the trade imbalance.

F-22s are suffering from oxygen issues. BTW, how can you be so sure? The current number of jets shown to the world doesn't have to be correct. China has reached its aerospace industry and mass production to an unbelievable pace. If you want to talk about prototypes than let us also include J-21 (another stealth jet), J-16, J-15, J-10B etc....

Lets say the oxygen issues have been fixed, don't ignore its capabilities to tear the Chinese fighters apart. We have thousands of aircraft mostly modern to be capable of dealing with China's military even with small number of F22s.

 

[ahfatzia]

Can't take up the slack for cheap labor force when other countries in South East Asia could provide it. Millions of Chinese with no money means the market is dry when they can't buy foreign branded products.

LOL The Koreans would love to takeover all the Japanese companies if China finances them and certainly companies from Europe and you country would do the same if financing are available. India, Brazil and companies within China.......

 

[Vitchilo]

I think Japan will back down first and tries to negotiate a status-quo with China and both countries will leave the islands untouched. Japan has far greater loses than China to take any kind of chances.

The problem is that both next governments are gonna be more hardline. Xi from what I've read from him is more hawkish... the Japanese opposition which is set to take power soon are more hawkish too... and on the slim chances that Romney gets elected, it won't help things either.

As for China and Japan being hurt by an economical war... it seems China doesn't THINK it would be that bad. (and what the policy makers think, not facts, matters in these kind of decisions)

Beijing hints at bond attack on Japan - Telegraph
Mr Jin said China can afford to sacrifice its “low-value-added” exports to Japan at a small cost. By contrast, Japan relies on Chinese demand to keep its economy afloat and stave off “irreversible” decline.

“It’s clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese economy without hurting itself too much,” he said. It is unclear whether he was speaking with the full backing of the Politburo or whether sales of Japanese debt would do much damage. The Bank of Japan could counter the move with bond purchases. Any weakening of the yen would be welcome.