US Politics

[Darmashkian]

Watch Trump cede the advantage in the next debate.

I know people are obsessed with who's going to be the next President, but has anyone discussed even a more equally election that is Congress?

I am!! Check my previous posts on this thread

The Repubs will easily retain the House. They won't lose it this time to the Dems.

Regarding the Senate:-
I firmly believe that Mark Kirk will lose his seat to the Dems & that they could narrowly win Wisconsin.

& that Marco Rubio,Mccain,Missouri & the senators from Ohio & PA will definitely win right now.

Regarding the race in Indiana,NH& Nevada. It is still a tossup to me,too close to give it to anyone.

Trump supporters turn on man who espouses neo-Nazi views at rally

By Ashley Killough, CNN



Updated 9:34 PM ET, Wed October 5, 2016


Reno, Nevada (CNN)A man who said he was representing the "alt-right" and embraced the label of "neo-Nazi" was shouted down by Donald Trump supporters at a rally here Wednesday night.

Brady Garrett, 25, was holding up signs during the rally that said "Research Holocaust Revisionism" and "1488," the latter of which is a combination of numbers emblematic of Nazism and white supremacy. He was escorted out of the event by Trump security.

Talking to reporters after the rally, Garrett said the United States needs "to put European Americans first" and disparaged Zionists.

Garrett confirmed that he was a neo-Nazi and disputed facts about the Holocaust. When asked if he thinks espousing such views at a Trump rally could hurt the Republican nominee, he said, "No."

"We need to speak the truth," he said, adding that he doesn't "give a damn" about any of Trump's policies and only supports him because he's "anti-establishment."

Meanwhile, a couple dozen Trump supporters started circling him and yelling out pro-Trump chants to try and drown him out. Others flat-out confronted him and the reporters who were interviewing him.

"Why are you trying to speak for everybody? You go speak for somebody else," Robert Santos or Reno shouted at Garrett.

"The guy's a nut job," Santos later told CNN. Asked if it bothers him that someone like Garrett supports Trump, Santos said, "It bothers me anywhere that they support anybody. It's their right but we don't need to interview that person."

One woman got in front of the cameras.

"I don't care what color people are if they love America," she said. "This guy is an idiot!"

Another woman, Carleen Reich Simko, said "there were so many thousands of other people here without this white supremacy label."

Garrett was wearing a shirt with the label for the State of Jefferson, a secession movement in California.

A disabled veteran, Joe Turner of Milford, California, also identified as a State of Jefferson supporter but said he was "pissed off" at Garrett for wearing that shirt while advocating Nazism at the same time.
"We do not support that garbage at all," Turner said, visibly upset at the incident.

CNN's Jeremy Diamond contributed to this report.

Wow... first time I am reading a report where trump supporters in a trump rally are anti-(Something bad).

Usually I read of anti-Hillary,racist,anti-Muslim,anti-Hispanic chants from his rallys...

By the way who are you voting for @Solomon2 ??

Bernie Sanders was right the system is rigged in favor of the filthy rich like Trump. He lost almost $1 billion (smart businessman ), and for almost 18 years has not paid any tax, that is just outrageous, this corrupt system needs to be reformed and I hope Hillary keeps her word.

No she won't.

George Soros & almost all the CEOs,Industrialists & the super-rich are behind her this time(Except possibly the fossil fuel related companies). She's getting huge funding which is one reason why she is currently ahead of Trump.

She has to reward them,she will just try some drama/jumla like:- adding her proposals of "Reforming the tax code" to a bill which includes getting more refugees+gun control & when the Repubs reject it,blame them.

She is the "Establishment candidate". Why do you think DT is still doing well against her & stands a chance of winning?

Obama,Bill Clinton,Both the Bushes & Reagan would have easily defeated him(though possibly not Jimmy Carter)

 

[F-22Raptor]

Why Hillary Clinton could be in even stronger shape than the polls show


Election Day is still a month away, but there are signs that Hillary Clinton might be on stronger footing than even her edge in the polls suggests.

The main reason is that early voting — whether by mail or in person — has already begun in a number of states, and Hillary Clinton’s campaign believes they are winning the early voting battle. On a conference call with journalists Thursday afternoon, Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said that “states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida could be decided before Election Day” based on strong early voting results.

The issue isn’t that a majority of votes will be cast already, but that Clinton can open up an “insurmountable lead” based on high turnout of young and minority voters that, realistically speaking, the Trump campaign cannot overcome.

This could, obviously, just be boasting. But Mook claims, “we are turning out more of our low-propensity voters than the Republicans.” For example, the Clinton campaign says there’s been a 77 percent increase in Florida Hispanics who are requesting a mail ballot and a 79 percent increase in Asian-American requests from that state.


This is playing out in the context of public polling that shows Clinton with a healthy lead and private polling that shows an even healthier one. These indicators suggest the same thing — not only is Clinton ahead, her buffer may be bigger than what current polls show both in terms of public opinion and votes already banked.

A Clinton campaign aide also says that in Iowa so far Democratic returned ballots have exceeded Republican ones three to one, that strongly Democratic Cuyahoga County (Cleveland and environs) accounts for one in six ballot requests received so far in Ohio, and that absentee voting in Northern Virginia has increased at twice the rate of what’s seen in other regions of the state.

Private polls say Trump is doing worse than it seems
The basic backdrop for this is, obviously, Trump’s slide in the polls since his first debate with Hillary Clinton. But a deeper reason for Mook’s confidence comes from the fact that, as Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns reported for the New York Times, “private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop” for Trump.


Savvy readers know better than to trust selectively leaked private partisan polls over the full suite of information available to the public.

The reality, however, is that campaign polling and media polling methodologies are increasingly diverging, and private polls increasingly have an edge in terms of accuracy. Too few people pick up their phones and talk to pollsters these days to get a statistically valid sample by calling random people. Pollsters make the randomized phone calls, of course, but then they need to do a lot of statistical interpolation to make their phone calls match the overall population.

A modern campaign data operation, by contrast, starts with actual administrative voter lists and then layers upon hundreds of additional layers of commercially available data to build detailed profiles of individuals.

One difference this makes is that if normally Republican-voting members in normally Republican-voting demographic groups — college educated white women, say — become disgruntled with Trump and consequently disinclined to answer phone polls, their place will be filled in a media pollsters’ model with demographically similar people who are still on the Trump Train.

That kind of interpolation could end up masking declines in Trump’s support from key groups.

Alternatively, of course, that kind of thinking could be nothing more than wishful thinking from Clinton supporters. But according to the Times, interviews with “a dozen strategists from both parties” support the view that Trump’s numbers have fallen faster with “independent voters, moderate Republicans and women” than we are yet seeing in the public polls.

Clinton’s field advantage
Ultimately, nobody will know until the votes are cast.

But Mook’s emphasis on early voting aligns with the reality that Clinton is running a vast campaign based on a cutting-edge data and field operations, while Trump largely is not. Academic research by Ryan Enos and Anthony Fowler indicates that targeted field operations in key swing states boost voter participation by about 7 or 8 percentage points. In a typical election, of course, both sides mount comparable field efforts and the net impact ends up canceling out.

In terms of early voting so far, that may not be the case. Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck of Politico reported on Tuesday that “Trump’s haphazard campaign, ignoring standard practice, relies largely on mining his boisterous battleground-state rallies to amass his early-vote totals.”

The Clinton campaign, by contrast, has an effort that is “more methodical and traditional, hinging on an extensive field organization to drive its advance voting strategy.”

Mook’s key claim is that so far it is working, with the Clinton campaign succeeding in driving its supporters from lower-turnout demographics to the polls while Republicans are struggling. And what’s clear from all sources — public and private — is that right now Trump is behind in the polls in key states. And with voting already underway Trump has less time to make up lost ground than you might think.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/7/13189344/clinton-polls-winning

 

[RabzonKhan]

TRUMP IN DEEP TROUBLE ON EVE OF SECOND DEBATE

By John Cassidy

If the Presidential election continues on its current course, historians may well look back on the third weekend in September as the moment when Donald Trump came closest to the White House, while millions of Americans reached for the Xanax. That Saturday, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump narrowed to one percentage point in the widely watched Real Clear Politics poll average, which combines the results from a number of surveys. A day later, Clinton’s lead fell to 0.9 percentage points.

Three weeks later, the numbers look very different. On Friday, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average, the gap between the two candidates was 4.5 percentage points. (Clinton stood at 48.3 per cent; Trump was at 43.8 per cent.) In the Huffington Post’s poll average, which covers a slightly different selection of polls from the Real Clear Politics survey, Clinton’s lead was even bigger: 6.5 percentage points. (Clinton at 48.0 per cent, Trump at 41.5 per cent.)

This shift in the national polls has calmed the nerves of many Democrats. Perhaps more important, the numbers in many of the key battleground states have also moved against Trump, making it considerably less likely that he will be able to reach the necessary two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College. Back in late September, the New York billionaire was narrowly ahead in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, three must-win states for him. But recent state polls indicate that Clinton is now leading in Florida and North Carolina. The state-poll averages do have Trump still slightly ahead in Ohio, but the most two recent surveys, from Public Policy Polling and Monmouth University, showed Clinton with a narrow lead there, too.

Trump supporters would rightly point out that the race is still tight in all three of these states. According to the Real Clear Politics poll averages, Clinton leads by 2.4 percentage points in Florida and 2.6 percentage points in North Carolina. But the trend is clearly running in the Democrat’s direction. And, even if Trump turned things around Florida and North Carolina, won Ohio, and carried all the other states that are currently leaning Republican, it would only take him to two hundred and fifty-nine votes in the Electoral College. To get to two hundred and seventy, he’d also have to pick up at least one big Democrat-leaning state, such as Michigan or Pennsylvania, or two or three smaller ones, such as Maine, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Right now, that looks like a huge ask. The latest poll from Michigan, which was carried out for the Detroit Free Press, showed Clinton extending her lead to eleven points. In Pennsylvania, where both candidates have been campaigning hard, two polls carried out during the past week showed Clinton with leads of nine points and ten points respectively. In the two New England battleground states, Clinton has been ahead for months, and, according to the Huffington Post’s poll average, which includes all the latest polls, she still leads by about seven points in Maine and about five points in New Hampshire. The race in Nevada appears to be much closer: the poll averages show a virtual tie. But Nevada only has six votes in the Electoral College.

Some of the improvement in Clinton’s position can surely be put down to her resounding victory over Trump in the first Presidential debate, on September 26th. But that’s not the entire explanation. Even before Clinton’s post-debate bounce started to show up in the national polls, her lead was increasing. On September 28th, for instance, when the polls still largely reflected survey work carried out before the debate, the gap between the two candidates in the Real Clear Politics poll average was back to three per cent.

That means Clinton has now had three good weeks in a row, during which Trump has been falling further behind. One factor, surely, was last month’s bombings in New York and New Jersey, which took media attention off Clinton’s pneumonia and her “basket of deplorables” comment. In addition, I suspect the poll trends also reflect a negative feedback effect of the kind I wrote about last month: as Trump surged in the polls, some independents and Bernie Sanders Democrats decided it was time to rally behind his opponent.

Clinton’s strong performance in the debate enabled her to build on a rising trend. You can see that in the head-to-head polls and also in her “favorable”/“unfavorable” ratings, which a number of pollsters track regularly. Real Clear Politics keeps a running average of these figures, too. It shows that between September 26th, the day of the debate, and Friday, October 6th, Clinton’s favorable rating rose from 40.3 per cent to 43.8 per cent, and her unfavorable rating fell from 55.1 per cent to 52.9 per cent.

Yes, these numbers indicate that a majority of voters still dislike Clinton. But her net favorability rating has risen by 4.5 points, to minus 9.1 points, in a short time. And, crucially, she is doing significantly better than Trump, whose net favorability rating on Friday was minus twenty points, the same as it was three weeks ago. None of this means that Trump can’t win. But it does imply he is in deep trouble.

mistaken.

The pollsters could goof up in this election, too, but there is little indication in the voter-registration numbers or the early-voting figures that they are missing something big. Indeed, it is also possible that the polls are underestimating Clinton’s lead. Writing in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Karl Rove pointed out that, on the day before the 2012 election, the Real Clear Politics poll average showed President Obama leading Mitt Romney by just 0.7 percentage points. When the actual votes were counted, it turned out that Obama had won by 3.9 percentage points, a discrepancy Rove attributed to the Democrats’ superior get-out-the-vote operation. This year, with Trump relying largely on the Republican National Committee for his ground game, something similar could happen.

That’s speculation. But in any case, with the polls and the electoral map moving against him, Trump doesn’t have much time left to turn things around. He desperately needs a better performance in Sunday’s debate. And even that might not be enough to save him.

 

[Russell]

Trump continuing to sabotage his own campaign...video released today is going to cost him even more female and independent voters.

 

[Desert Fox]

this corrupt system needs to be reformed and I hope Hillary keeps her word.

too bad Hillary is taking money from the very rich people, including Donald Trump (in the past).

 

[Śakra]

Donald is a gross creepy slob.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Trump continuing to sabotage his own campaign...video released today is going to cost him even more female and independent voters.

This is devastating for Trump. His campaign was already on life support, an this is likely the final nail in the coffin for him. I'll be shocked if he recovers from this.

 

[Russell]

This is devastating for Trump. His campaign was already on life support, an this is likely the final nail in the coffin for him. I'll be shocked if he recovers from this.

Republicans jumping ship left and right....waiting on his video taped statement.

His apology will simply not be enough.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Republicans jumping ship left and right....waiting on his video taped statement.

His apology will simply not be enough.

An with the second debate in just 2 days, this couldn't come at a worse time for him. Trump essentially condoned the sexual assault of women. I imagine Trumps advisers are ready to jump off a cliff right now.

 

[Russell]

An with the second debate in just 2 days, this couldn't come at a worse time for him. Trump essentially condoned the sexual assault of women. I imagine Trumps advisers are ready to jump off a cliff right now.

Not just condoned...he admitted doing it himself :facepalm:

 

[T-72M1]

probably won't hurt him, a womanizing/lewd in private Trump , who exactly is this supposed to surprise ?

looks like its going to get very ugly


sleazy tidbits and gossips aside, a bit more substantive 'dirt'

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/07...aid-speeches-to-goldman-sachs-finally-leaked/
http://time.com/4523749/hillary-clinton-wikileaks-leaked-emails-john-podesta/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/wikileaks-stirs-up-trouble-for-hillary-clinton-1475891284

looks like Assange finally came good, need more dumps though, specifically, the stuff he said would destroy her campaign.

 

[Russell]

Absolutely no one is talking about the email dump...Assange is sitting in his room crying

The Hillary machine has used this perfectly...even Faux News is pretending like they care about the hurricane to try to hide the Trump stuff.

Hannity had a meltdown on live TV.

 

[T-72M1]

Absolutely no one is talking about the email dump...Assange is sitting in his room crying

The Hillary machine has used this perfectly...even Faux News is pretending like they care about the hurricane to try to hide the Trump stuff.

Hannity had a meltdown on live TV.

tomorrow morning's news cycle in the US might pick it up, this is like a 50 - 50 hit.

PussyGrabber vs Mrs. “I’m kind of far removed” (from the middle class.)

less than a month, should be something major every other day from here on, what fun.

 

[Russell]

tomorrow morning's news cycle in the US might pick it up, this is like a 50 - 50 hit.

PussyGrabber vs Mrs. “I’m kind of far removed” (from the middle class.)

less than a month, should be something major every other day from here on, what fun.

Absolutely not. This is going to continue right up until the debate and then we'll get flooded with the post debate narrative.

As you can Republican senators and reps are dumping Trump and that'll continue to be the news....rats leaving a sinking ship.

Not to mention there are apparently more videos of Trump.

 

[T-72M1]

Absolutely not. This is going to continue right up until the debate and then we'll get flooded with the post debate narrative.

As you can Republican senators and reps are dumping Trump and that'll continue to be the news....rats leaving a sinking ship.

Not to mention there are apparently more videos of Trump.

this kind of stuff would have sunk him long back in the primaries if it had to, won't stick.