OK, I see a lot of posts with a lot of confusions. Let me make some points:
1. Most Bangladeshi's would object vehemently to go back into a union under Hindu majority domination. But for the arguments sake if Bangladeshi's wanted such a union, lets say SAARC, then India would never agree to it. India will have free trade, economic integration, but it will never agree to a political union. They simply do not want to increase their Muslim population. As mentioned before, just look at the border situation between India-Nepal and India-Bangladesh, you will get the answer. Also, if you do not believe me, ask Indians in this forum or go to any Indian forum and discuss with them. It is out of question for them. Unlike some clueless people in this forum, I have actually talked and discussed this issue with a lot of Indians from different walks of life, on and off line and the answer I get is that trade yes, but political union, No. After 700 years of Muslim domination, they want to keep Muslim numbers in their democracy as low as possible. There is a universal consensus about this. Also, Bangladesh is considered a highly populated land with low per capita land and low resources, so it is a burden also, that is another factor. Pakistan is more acceptable in that regard, it has more land and resources per capita. But they are also allergic to Muslim Pakistan and Pakistan is also allergic to Hindu India, so the feeling is mutual. So SAARC union is only possible with
- Nepal (if India can beat China in that space), Bhutan (almost Sikkimized)
- Sri Lanka (if Sri Lanka fails to join ASEAN for some reason) and
- Maldives (if China or ASEAN find no use for this entity, as it will be sinking under water soon)
Pakistan and Bangladesh both do not want to join India and India does not want to join any of them either in any kind of union.
2. So if SAARC will never become a political union including Bangladesh, for us Bangladeshi's, hoping for such a union in the future is to waste our time on mirage. To me our only option to join any kind of union of nations (which I believe is vital for our survival) is ASEAN, as I believe it is open to our joining and we are also open to join ASEAN. True we are kind of new to each other, but both are open to possibilities. Those of you that did not read the threads and post links I have provided, here is current status of Bangladesh with ASEAN:
Enlargement of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Criteria for observers
The ASEAN senior officials had agreed in 1983 that observer status "should be granted only to potential members of ASEAN who satisfy the criteria set for ASEAN membership". One of the criteria states, "Only states in the Southeast Asia may join ASEAN."[5]
Future enlargement
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea shares the island of New Guinea, world's second largest, with two Indonesian provinces Papua New Guinea, or PNG, a Commonwealth Realm, has been an observer of the regional bloc since 1976, earlier than any other non-original members of ASEAN. The fact that Papua New Guinea, a country outside Southeast Asia had been granted the observer status is because Papua New Guinea's admission was carried out before the enactment of 1983 decision of limiting only Southeast Asian countries becoming a part of the regional bloc.
During the 29th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting held in Jakarta, in 1996, Papua New Guinea's Foreign Minister, Kilroy Genia expressed Papua New Guinea's desire to further strengthen its interactions with ASEAN by proposing that Papua New Guinea be accorded a permanent associate membership with ASEAN.[19] Current Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, Michael Somare pointed out during his visit to one of ASEAN's founding member, the Philippines in 2009 that his country is ready and able to fulfill the requirements of membership in the regional grouping.[20]
Geographical location somewhat hinders PNG's admission to ASEAN. Although located no farther away from Jakarta, headquarter of ASEAN, than northern Myanmar, PNG isn't geographically part of Southeast Asia, nor the continent of Asia. When the country was granted the observer status in 1976, it was acknowledged that PNG shares the same political and economic region with ASEAN's member, and connected geographically, because the country forms half of the huge island of New Guinea, with Indonesias provinces of Papua and West Papua comprising the other half. Since then, it has languished in a 35-year-long purgatory awaiting permission to become a full member.
East Timor
José Ramos-Horta hoped East Timor could join ASEAN before 2012
In March 2011 East Timor submitted a membership application to the ASEAN[21], a move which was supported by Indonesia.[22]
The country which gained its independence in 2002 made its debut in Southeast Asian Games, a multi-sport event which commonly associated with ASEAN, from 2003. The country firstly invited to ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005, making it the 25th country to join the forum. The biggest struggle for the country is to maintain embassies in all ASEAN members; from 10 current members of the regional association, one of the world's youngest country only maintains four embassies.[23] Timorese President José Ramos-Horta hoped to gain membership before 2012.[24]
The lack of consensus on the question of East Timor's membership has prevented ASEAN from arriving at decisions on ASEAN observer status for East Timor and its accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. The treaty makes clear distinctions between the rights of regional and non-regional signatories, but whether East Timor a part of the region is debatable.[5]
Singaporen Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong objected in late 2011 to East Timor's membership, due to his desire to achieve economic integration by 2015, which the relatively less developed East Timor would make difficult.[25] Although ASEAN has no membership criteria regarding political ideology, but some ASEAN countries have difficulties with East Timor's eventual membership, including East Timor's foreign-policy orientation[citation needed], alleged presence of Portuguese functionaries all over its government[citation needed], and Burma's objection to media articles by East Timorese personalities supportive of the National League for Democracy[citation needed]. Some member states are concerned that, having experienced the entry of four relatively underdeveloped members, ASEAN would be admitting an even poorer one.[5]
Bangladesh
Laos supports Bangladesh getting observer status in ASEAN.[26]
Lao to back Bangladesh for getting observer status of ASEAN
Newly appointed Ambassador of Lao PDR to Bangladesh Thongphanh Syac-khaphom presenting his credentials to President Zillur Rahman at Bangabhaban on Monday. Photo: PID
Lao to back Bangladesh for getting observer status of ASEAN
Lao will provide its support to Bangladesh for getting observer status in Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN), reports BSS. The assurance came when the newly appointed Ambassador of Lao PDR to Bangladesh Thongphanh Syac-khaphom presented his credentials to President Zillur Rahman at Bangabhaban. During the meeting, the President welcomed the new envoy and expressed his satisfaction over the existing friendly relations between the two countries. The President said Bangladesh attached importance to its relations with Lao as one of the important ASEAN member states. Bangladesh can be a bridge between ASEAN and South Asia, the President observed. President Zillur Rahman said there is ample scope to further strengthening the relations between the two countries particularly trade and agriculture sector.
The new envoy assured the President that he would take high endeavor to increase trade and commerce relations between the two countries. He lauded the role of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in establishing peace and solidarity in national and international arenas. Secretaries and high officials concerned to the President Office and Foreign Ministry were present on the occasion.
Earlier on his arrival at Bangabhaban, a contingent of Presidents Guard Regiment gave a guard of honor to the new ambassador.
3. Bangladesh also has a very strong look east policy of increasing trade, economic and diplomatic relations with all east asian states including ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea. This is mainly to balance the overwhelming influence of India in our economy and if I might add, politics as well. Above countries to the east of us are positioned not only to supersede India in almost all respects, they can become our partners in ASEAN and negate India's harmful monopolized influence on Bangladesh. So rightly for national security and balance of power, we need to become as close to ASEAN and other east Asian nations as possible, and we need to start taking steps in that direction. If we consider how many people from Dhaka visit Bangkok and Singapore and how many people go to Delhi or Kolkata or Bombay, this can be clearly stated that we are already getting closer to ASEAN by air. Our entire import/export trade via feeder vessel goes through Singapore, not Mumbai. A land link road/rail with Myanmar will truly connect Bangladesh with ASEAN greater Mekong sub-region. As Myanmar develops, Bangladesh will get more access via this land link to ASEAN regions.
4. Now finally getting to the point about choosing US vs. China for Bangladesh, it is my opinion that Bangladesh's future is with ASEAN, not India or even China. Of course we will have close economic and trade relations with China and India both of whom are ASEAN neighbors and partners, but for security and political union, we are going to be going the ASEAN route, which eventually may include Japan and South Korea, while keeping ANZ as an ASEAN partner. This entire South East and East Asian group of nations will be closely allied with the US/West, which most of them already are. Because of this reason, Bangladesh automatically will be drawn into this security umbrella. How does that affect our future relations with India and China:
India: India does not want Bangladesh to get out from under its sole control and a monopoly market for its goods, so it is a net negative for India. Bangladesh as an integral part of ASEAN will mean that India will be dealing with an ASEAN member state and ASEAN as a whole when it deals with water issues, border issues, trade issues and myriad other issues. It will no longer be able to push Bangladesh around using its agents within our country to compromise our interest. It will eventually neutralize Indian domination, as we would have more and more relations with ASEAN states, as well as Japan and South Korea.
China: China will not be able to use Bangladesh as a pawn against India, but it will trade with Bangladesh just like it does with rest of ASEAN states, using ASEAN-China FTA. China may not like the US allied security structure, but it may have little options to prevent this from happening. In fact, my guess is that Myanmar will soon make a shift from Chinese camp to US camp, so will any other China leaning states in ASEAN. This is due to the Asian Pivot project, the US has just launched last year and almost all ASEAN states geopolitical interests are aligned with this project, mainly to limit Chinese influence and balance out the threat from an aggressive and overbearing China, in this space. This is a sound geopolitical initiative and I think it will be a win-win for the US/West and ASEAN+ states as well as ANZ in this region. It will also promote stability and limit adventurism by newly emerging bully powers like China and India.
Now, for those Bangladeshi's who are carrying the Chinese flag, instead of logically looking at our national interest and the future geopolitical direction of our country, please note we are not Pakistan, as its geography and resulting geopolitics is completely different. Because of their location Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran should become part of the expanded Eurasian Union (former Soviet Union) under SCO security umbrella. It was a mistake for the US to stop Soviet expansion in Afghan theater, using imported extremist meme/ideology and unleashing it in that space, the result was "Islamic terror" and the blow back in 9/11. The cost to the US was 10 trillions and counting and both Iraq and Afghanistan lost millions of lives as a result. So geopolitical mistakes are costly, even though they are made by foreign policy wonks in State Dept. or think tanks, but no one can escape geography and geopolitics, regardless of costly mistakes. Unfortunately, as has been seen, many a times, some poor innocent farmer in Afghanistan or Pakistan loose their lives from suddenly falling bombs from drones in the sky, because of geopolitical errors made by state dept. officials, who has never set foot in these regions or never will.
So, in brief, the US should get out of Afghanistan and hand the stabilization effort of Afghanistan to SCO, while SCO should take this responsibility and make it happen under an expanded Eurasian union to include Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Greater GCC, which includes all Arabic speaking lands in West Asia, was an Ottoman area previously. China and Russia or SCO should limit its roles there (Syria is a case in point) and reign in their rogue elements like Iran, so Turkey, the Ottoman successor can lead and integrate this region. While ASEAN+ will develop and remain a US/West allied area till it becomes a completely self sufficient entity on its own to withstand threats from China or India (and yes friends can turn into enemies if interests do not align):
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180755-geopolitics-asean-region.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180771-geopolitics-gcc-region.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180767-geopolitics-eurasia-region.html
But this is of course just one man's opinions, and before making fun of my ideas and dismissing them as some idea from pdf members, please go through this thread in detail and understand the philosophical underpinnings of these ideas and then debate about these ideas first:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html
This thread also talks about why Muslims lost and the West became the rulers of the world to this day, which is slowly making way for a more "multi-polar" world. The road map I propose makes this transition in the smoothest and shortest possible time-frame within practical means, which also will minimize the global population peak, an abiding interest of mine, to limit environmental degradation on this small planet of ours.
These geopolitical errors are made by state dept. officials sitting in nice offices, who think they know a lot, but in reality are creating a mess of their and other countries and lives of people in these countries. It is better that we take it in our own hand, put some effort into it and suggest some correct geopolitics using open source method. May be some state dept. officials will come to pdf and debate with us, that would definitely help increase their understanding and ours.
Just don't say, we need to go with China or USA or whatever. Geography as well as demography is central to the understanding of geopolitics. We can discuss, debate, share information and educate ourselves. Once we find the correct geopolitical direction, then it is our job to lead and educate the masses, starting with the right political parties who cares about their nation and people.
?
