US clout down, risks up by 2025: NIC analysis

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US clout down, risks up by 2025: NIC analysis​

WASHINGTON (November 22 2008): US economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, US spy agencies projected on Thursday. The National Intelligence Council analysis "Global Trends 2025" also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The US dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said. The outlook is intended to inform US President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by US intelligence analysts.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about US influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020. Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."

China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said. Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT: A world with multiple power centers has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said. Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report said.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could reemerge," it said. Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising center of manufacturing and some service industries. Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.

A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report's authors envisioned, Fingar said. Last weekend's Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, he said. A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be underway or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said. There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international non-proliferation systems.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an "arc of instability." The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.

 

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Year 2025 to see sun setting on US era, says report​

By Anwar Iqbal

WASHINGTON, Nov 21: Fading US economic and military power will lead to the decline of America as the dominant global power, predicts a US intelligence report.

But America’s decline will not enable another power to occupy the central stage. Instead, it will lead to a multi-polar world with many regional players calling the shots in their spheres of influence.

By 2025, the world will also live under daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and water scarcity.

The predictions come from the US National Intelligence Council, a government body that works under the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC report, titled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” was released on Thursday afternoon.

The report projects China, India and Russia as new world leaders by 2025 but notes that there will be other major players as well.

“Indonesia, Turkey and a post-clerically run Iran — states that are predominantly Islamic, but which fall outside the Arab core — appear well-suited for growing international roles,” the report says.

By 2025, China will be the world’s second-largest economy and a major military power.

“The United States will remain the single most powerful country, although less dominant. Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic and foreign-policy priorities.”

The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, is more pessimistic about America’s global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. Analysts drawn from across the US intelligence community warn that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.

The US dollar’s role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a “first among equals”.

“The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of non-state actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States’ relative strength – even in the military realm – will decline and US leverage will become more strained.”

The report has been prepared in time for Barack Obama’s entry into the White House on Jan 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.

Nuclear weapons

“The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes,” the 121-page assessment warns.

The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of ‘rogue states’ will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups.

The report warns that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it says that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. And future wars may be fought over water, food and energy resources.

The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that Al Qaeda’s “terrorist wave” might be breaking up.

“Al Qaeda’s inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think.”

On a positive note, the report points out that the world is already in the midst of a transition to cleaner fuels and predicts that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025.

An energy transition – from fossil fuels to alternative sources – is inevitable, and “the only questions are when and how abruptly or smoothly such a transition occurs,” the report notes.

“We believe the most likely occurrence by 2025 is a technological breakthrough that will provide an alternative to oil and natural gas, but with implementation lagging because of the necessary infrastructure costs and need for longer replacement time.”

Saudi Arabia, the report adds, “will absorb the biggest shock” created by the decreased need for oil and gas, “as its leaders will be forced to tighten up on the costs of the royal establishment.”

In Iran, it projects that a drop in oil and gas prices resulting from alternative fuels “will undermine any populist economic policies” and that the “pressure for economic reform will increase, potentially putting pressure on the clerical governing elite to loosen its grip.”