US bill pledges $900m to Pakistan, links half of amount to certification

[graphican]

Actually no.

Pakistan cannot disregard American interests and investment in the region just like that. CPEC has its limits and Pakistan is far from being self-sufficient on the economic and technological front.

Yes, Pakistan can be bent, but to an extent. Consistent negativity damages relations and leverage.

When you believe you are ready to take on, you are ready. if you think Pakistan need to wait 20 years of development before it may get comparable, then the gap is never going to get down as you expect. you will grow sure, but so will they. USA has abused Pakistan every way possible, but after your realignment with China and Russia, you can refuse to be tarted like that right now, and right away. fears and if/buts are not going to earn you weight.

 

[LeGenD]

i partially agrees with you that we are not self sufficient yet and still need usa(heck even china and Russia needs USA to grow) and we will be needing them for foreseeable future.
but few thing have changed now usa can't get favors from us by just moving it's tongue. they need to give us something in return (no matter how small).

I am glad you recognized that.

However, I disagree with the part that Pakistan can make demands from the US in return. Not there yet. Look at post # 10 (of Kaptaan) for a reasonable explanation as to why.

When you believe you are ready to take on, you are ready. if you think Pakistan need to wait 20 years of development before it may get comparable, then the gap is never going to get down as you expect. you will grow sure, but so will they. USA has abused Pakistan every way possible, but after your realignment with China and Russia, you can refuse to be tarted like that right now, and right away. fears and if/buts are not going to earn you weight.

Bro, it is only China for us at the moment, and China doesn't dictates terms of engagement between US and Pakistan; not even close. I am not sure why we are counting Russia in our strategic options.

Even if Pakistan becomes economically stronger in coming years, it cannot offset the significance of American investment in the subcontinent, and resultant influence. What Pakistan should do, is to stay away from Cold Wars of America, and strive to build more constructive relations with the West on the whole.

There is no harm in being optimistic, but not without homework.

 

[maximuswarrior]

You may not but the fact is that Pak military is like a caterpillar - many of the legs it runs on are US provided and powered. Say if $450 million is kept back because of non certification which is almost certain, Pak military will still get $450 million.

I do not have the exact figure for Pak military budget but if it is say $4.5 billion then that is still 10% and no mean figure to be scoffed at. Inn the past it has been higher and in some years might have been 25% of the annual budget. That is lot of good money on top of the Pak defence allocation which goes on to add 'meat' to the army.

You also have many purchases like F-16s etc which again have been purchased by using defence aid. Bottom line it is easy dismissing it but when your dealing with hard facts - that every military runs on finances and Pakistan has a chronic culture of tax avoidance which means central budget is always not enough to run things let alone have enough to develop the country or even but capital equipment for the military.

In this scenario having or nursing pet hates is not a option. That is why every Pak leader including Gen. Raheel Sharif could simply have said no to the aid - it's not like that it is forced on them. But they had no option but to take it. For sake of argument say if US released the extra $450 million. What would it mean? Well for a starters the entire Frontier Corp could be improved with that money which would have significant positive effects.

Whether you like it or not but the sobering fact is most of what you see in Pakistan has been built up by US finances or is the legacy of British Raj. Precious little has been built up on local resources. We can blame the leadership or the local culture of not paying taxes but that is how it is.

And finally don't forget US is responsible to it's people and pursues it's own policy goals - nothing wrong with that. That is how it is. Pakistan has to look to making it's ruling elite including the military accountable for any failures. A prime and recent example is Musharaf. He was the creator of the Kargil debacle and then once in power on dubious grounds he gave away Afghanistan to the Northern Alliance the fruits of which Pakistan is still enjoying with daily anti-Pak rhetoric from that country. Not surprising since the very faction that hated Pakistan was installed in Kabul under his watch.

Yet today you have people still lauding his achievements including the economy - which only improved because of boost of extra American aid post 9/11.


That is not a choice Pakistan has as long as nobody pays taxes.


If wishes could be fishes. Trading preferances are mostly given to strategic partners not countries with limited shared values or interests. Pakistan has transient shared interests with US. Ayub Khan asked for this back in 1960s but failed to get it. He probablly came closer than any other leader in Pakistan's history in getting open trade agreement but even he failed.

His desperate appeal made in powerful language for a 'economic market' minus the politics failed to recieve support. The sad fact is economics and politics are linked. The West agreed to give Spain, Greece, even Japan the economic agrrements but that was because those countries also became political, social, civilizational juniors of the Western order.

The Pak army is not going to put all of their eggs in the US basket. In fact, the latest undertakings with China on various levels is enough indication. The F-16s and other military hardware came as a result of our cooperation and services since the Cold War era. You can't say that this was goodwill or free lunch from the US. Also, the US is the same country that applied sanctions and embargoes throughout the years against Pakistan. That includes economic and military sanctions. It is not as straightforward and rosy as you are depicting.

The latest aid offer is as expected attached with many conditions which go against our sovereign interests. We either decide to capitulate our interests or be sold for 400 million dollars which really amounts to nothing. Sure, the Frontier Corps or other projects could benefit from this money, but is it really worth jeopardizing our supreme interests? Are we this desperate? The Pak army isn't run on 400 million dollars. Its value cannot be expressed in monetary terms. Our goals should be much higher. We are not a gun for hire or at least should try not be anymore. By rejecting 400 million dollars which undoubtedly will do more harm than good we won't seize to exist. It will make a firm statement.

There is no way round it. Our relation with the US is not what it used to be and won't ever be the same again. You know this and everyone knows it. The US has chosen India as its premier ally within the region. They get the trade, nuclear, military and other top deals. Pakistan gets some aid attached with conditions. Our relation lasted a while, but it was always marred with a lot of suspicion and hostility. It wasn't a natural relation based on mutual interests and understanding. It was rather based on shortterm interests and we have to firmly understand that.

We can't entirely severe our relations with the US, but we also cannot accept aid and dictation from the US. Times have changed. No one stood by Pakistan when it required help and needed it most. The only country which stood by us was China. China has once again breathed hope and life into Pakistan. We need to continue to work closely with our trusted ally China. The US should be thanked for its aid and help.

 

[Hell hound]

I am glad you recognized that.

bro of course i agrees with that only someone with zero geopolitical knowledge can think of undermining the USA's influence and power.

 

[graphican]

I am glad you recognized that.

However, I disagree with the part that Pakistan can make demands from the US in return. Not there yet. Look at post # 10 (of Kaptaan) for a reasonable explanation as to why.


Bro, it is only China for us at the moment, and China doesn't dictates terms of engagement between US and Pakistan; not even close. I am not sure why we are counting Russia in our strategic options.

There is no harm in being optimistic, but not without homework.

USA is under no position to twist your arm anymore. there is no terrorism in Pakistan in which they could invest in, they cannot harm you by economic sanctions, they cannot control you through aid, they cannot control you by refusing to give weapons (as they've done so already). there is no card left in their hand which they could use against Pakistan.

Now Pakistan has a legitimate need to get favourable Afghanistan and this is where USA needs Pakistan's cooperation to keep their foot on the soil. When you lack offensive power, you bank on enemies's weaknesses to get the same, provided you are ready to do that.

 

[LeGenD]

USA is under no position to twist your arm anymore. there is no terrorism in Pakistan in which they could invest in, they cannot harm you by economic sanctions, they cannot control you through aid, they cannot control you by refusing to give weapons (as they've done so already). there is no card left in their hand which they could use against Pakistan.

I am not sure how you reached this conclusion.

1. American weaponry makes the bulk of Pakistani military capability. How can we offset that?
2. IMF has sustained our economy from time-to-time. How can we offset that?
3. USAID is investing in soft aspects of Pakistani economy. How can we offset that?

Without American support, Pakistani economy risks collapse and military capability will definitely degrade to a significant extent.

And there were 600 incidents of terrorism in Pakistan in 2016 alone. This war is far from over.

Now Pakistan has a legitimate need to get favourable Afghanistan and this is where USA needs Pakistan's cooperation to keep their foot on the soil. When you lack offensive power, you bank on enemies's weaknesses to get the same, provided you are ready to do that.

We need American cooperation in the matter of Afghanistan as well, to ensure lasting peace and stability there.

 

[maximuswarrior]

It is not wise to dismiss the importance of aid without being privy to how it is being invested.

Pakistan is a developing country and cannot sustain its economy on its own; therefore, aid is welcomed from any country. If Pakistan was economically self-sufficient, it could refuse any kind of aid from any country altogether.

Now, we should not restrict our perspective to what we think as right and ignore the perspective of others in the process. If US is giving us aid, it will come with some strings attached. US has some expectations from Pakistan just like any other country. Some may not like them but this is how things are in real-life. To explain my point further: since China is investing in CPEC, it has its own share of expectations. China will also gain significant leverage in Pakistani affairs due to investment of that magnitude. We are just looking at the rosy picture of it; butterflies and all.

Welcome to the real world.

There isn't much to argue because the past speaks for itself. So much has happened and when we talk about Pakistan and the US in the same sentence we can only think of distrust and negativity. Any relation which has a slave master foundation is doomed to fail. Pak US relations are no different.

I am not advocating for a total ban on relations between these two nations. All I'm saying is that time has come to differentiate between allies and foes. We don't require US aid attached with conditions. We need to keep the US on a safe distance.

The whole world revolves around interests. China Pak relations aren't an exception and no one is claiming that. We all have expectations from each other. Pak China interests do not conflict. Pak China interests find common ground unlike Pak US interests. Besides, the real US ally is India and not Pakistan.

This is the real world.

 

[graphican]

I am not sure how you reached this conclusion?

1. American weaponry makes the chunk of Pakistani military capability. How can we offset that?
2. IMF stabilizes our economy from time-to-time. How can we offset that?
3. USAID is investing in soft aspects of Pakistani economy. How can we offset that?


That too.

ill have to type a lot to back my claims but reverse it and tell me which part do you disagree the most first? sanctioning and using IMF means abandoning Pakistan which USA cannot afford, unless they decide that India is the only country they would not have as their enemy in this region and that they would leave Afghanistan (and Iran) un-cared. what chances do you see this happening? USA could never abandon Pakistan viz a viz Afghanistan and Iran but they could do arm twisting using carrots and sticks, and both cannot work against you, provided you stand. there will be costs for gaining heights but nothing which could uproot your existence.

assuming you do not take Pakistan just a sitting duck, we have fair bit of power if you decide to use. IMF? Pakistan stock market is green fertilised field for investors, growing better than india and china. quote me an example that a country was sanctioned when it was a Gold mine for likes of IMF?

again, nothing comes free, but some costs are bigger than your life, and no cost in current scenario is bigger than what you cannot afford. You can get all you want and all signs tell you that now its doable and you should do it.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Reject the money. Want trade not "assistance".

This is what is really required. Not aid, but trade.

 

[Hassan Guy]

We should get some F-35's

 

[Great Sachin]

Reject the money. Want trade not "assistance".

lets see if Pakistan reject it or not

 

[Indus Pakistan]

I am not sure how you reached this conclusion.

Some people with all the facts in their face refuse to see them. It's like talking to a concrete wall. How about this little 'bombshell'? Who do you think is the largest importer of Pakistani products? Yes, USA.

USA - 13.6%
EU countries - 18 %

Link > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_trade_of_Pakistan

I have already stated the principles of foreign policy - that where they converge there is interests, where they diverge there are contradictions. In this scheme Pakistan is getting what it can extract from USA. Both sides are in a continous state of tustle to get the best deal. That is how it works.

Without a doubt the contra indications are increasing and convergence is receding but there is still some miles left in this relationship. USA is still going to matter for some decades although Pakistan needs to focus on China as that is where the future lies.

However I have made many postings on CPEC. The future of Pak/China is going to remain limited to big talk, some tarmac but little substance unless both countries align with each other.

Here were are back to the early days of Pakistan and the budding relationship with West under Ayub Khan. That big hope and his attempts to create a common market with trade preferances failed because there was no civilizational, poolitical or cultural common ground. The exact predicament if not more faces Pakistan now with China.

For Pakistan to move forward and develop a full spectrum relationship with China will require major changes in the Pakistani mindset. I would argue the space between China and Pak is greater than West and Pak. China is full on rampant secular, athiest, revolutionery society which is directly conta to the deeply religious, conservation tradition bound culture and society in Pakistan. If people think Pak can go forward very far with China holding that mindset they are badly mistaken.

A sea change in Pakistani mentality and though is required or else besides some tarmac, singing songs "Pak Chini love" there is nothing substantive going to be gained. Soon enough behind closed doors all Paks will be talking about is the shameless Chinese women and their promiscuity, drinking alcohol and parties. That is not going to cut any favours with Chinese.

The grass is greener over the horizon. There has been little contact between most Paks with Chinese. Most of it is limited to officials, diplomats talking in meetings, singing songs. Whereas with the West there is million one to one contact everyday as millions of Pakistani's either live or visit the West. It indeed will be interesting when the deciples of full on turbo atheism and forced secularism engage with the religious driven Muslims of Pakistan.

Something is going to have to give and I know it is not going to be the Chinese.

@Sinopakfriend

 

[jamal18]

I'm always wondering what economic and other assistance specifically means? Where does all this money get spent?

Other than that, I'm not very fond of US aid in Pakistan. The aid is often used as a tool of blackmail and extortion. We know the Americans use this as their dangling carrot. No country is immune to receiving aid and especially developing countries. However, we need to be careful with US aid because this money is coupled with conditions that are at times undeliverable. The preconditions are also toxic and harmful to Pakistan's interest. By receiving this aid we are essentially signing to a US contract. When we are unable to deliver we get accused of being insincere or incompetent. The aid which in reality amounts to not much should be ignored in my opinion. Pakistan can survive without this aid that inflicts more harm than good.

There is a mindset among Pakistanis that 'development' is linked to how much money any foreign power will put in their begging bowl.

When you have the mindset of a beggar, you become a beggar.

 

[maximuswarrior]

I am not sure how you reached this conclusion.

1. American weaponry makes the bulk of Pakistani military capability. How can we offset that?
2. IMF has sustained our economy from time-to-time. How can we offset that?
3. USAID is investing in soft aspects of Pakistani economy. How can we offset that?

Without American support, Pakistani economy risks collapse and military capability will definitely degrade to a significant extent.

And there were 600 incidents of terrorism in Pakistan in 2016 alone. This war is far from over.


We need American cooperation in the matter of Afghanistan as well, to ensure lasting peace and stability there.

1. Pak is already diversifying by acquiring critical weapons and ToT from China. The joint ventures speak for themselves. No joint venture between Pakistan and the US.

2. Our reliance on IMF will see a sharp drop in the coming years as CPEC continues to reap the dividends. In fact, it is already happening if you have been following the news lately. Lagarde's visit to Pakistan speaks volume.

3. USAID doesn't remotely have the impact that Chinese investment has in Pakistan. There is no comparison. One is feeding by supplying the fish and the other is teaching to fish.

In case you didn't know, US aid to Pakistan is already minimal as compared to previous years. Many aid packages have been halted by the US congress etc. Your assesment that Pak economy will collapse without US aid support is untrue and inaccurate.

There is a mindset among Pakistanis that 'development' is linked to how much money any foreign power will put in their begging bowl.

When you have the mindset of a beggar, you become a beggar.

This is the result of becoming addicted to aid. It is relatively easy money. Standing on your own feet becomes too much of an ask for some. I'm glad our leadership and specifically the Pak army think otherwise. CPEC and other cooperation with China is a firm proof of that. There is a reason why our enemies are irked and furious about this development.

 

[AhsanAmin]

The more I look at the history of the world post 1945 I am inclined to think of the movie 'Trading Places' with Eddie Murphy playing the down out black guy. The premise of the movie is the two Wall Street financiers bet that anybody given their blessing could get rich. So they give the black guy all the privilages and remove it from the white guy. Soon enough the black guy is a broken, homeless vagrant and the black guy is the respectable gentleman. Although that is a movie and of course in real life things are rather more nuanced but there is more then grain of thruth to the story.

If the Western world adopts or decides to give economic, trade preferance then that country will rise. How far it will rise depends on local conditions but it will rise to reasonable levels. Examples of this are Greece, Spain. Portugal, Cyprus, South Korea, Japan. In the western hemisphere Jamaica is beneficiary. However to get this preferance a country the politics, culture, civilization has to align with the Western order.

There is a flip side to this as well. Iran with it's vast oil, gas wealth and over 90% literacy including university graduation rates at par with Western Europe - indeed many of the social indicators in that country are better than Southern Europe and match Western Europe should have been the France or Norway of the east by now. Instead it is crippled and no where near where it's rnatural resources, human potential and 5,000 year history point to. That is because Iran has chosen a path against the West and has only survived because of the oil and a strong culture of 5,000 years as a nation.

Link > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_Places

What you are saying makes no sense at all. May be it is the flip side that has some relevance. No country in the world ever progressed because America or western countries gave them aid. If any county you cited has progressed, it is solely because they got their act together and not because foreigners gave them aid. You are propagating a very mistaken notion. However there are many countries who got ruined because of wrath of strong powers.