Upcoming Political Deadlock and Predictions

[The Eagle]

You explained well and thanks for your valuable input.

In house change, care taker government, National government, Technocrats or death of tareek ahtsaab and tahreeek qasaas as a result of APS peshawer like incident.
There were few conspiracy theories circulating in our social media regarding APS attack last year. Somewhat like India planned this attack to safeguard NS government from opposition of IK due to obvious reasons.
Although I don't buy this idea but re occurance of similar disaster cannot be ruled out considering old track record.

We are heading towards kind of political crises, if judiciary, establishment and sane voices of political arena failed to preempt well intime. Although sane political voices are negligible and NS is kind of arrogant guy. He is worst example of bad governance.

Well said so also, you have well described the APS background based upon one of the aspects and if we look at the current changes based upon political statements and behaviour of major opposition party that it is much clearer after the last London meeting meeting, seems like PPPP has agreed to divert her politics all about Kashmir while giving the NS a room to breath and practice as usual beside putting the Panama issue on back foot. PPPP is not all about Panama now a days as it can be seen so also the Kashmir unrest and growing issue is more connected to the same tactics so that NS will survive and it will buy him more days. In my opinion, re-occurrence wouldn't be that easy after all those efforts for security but it will be more like something as happened in Kashmir or any sort of crises in G.B, Baluchistan or from Afghanistan that will drive the whole attention of country towards the planned issue rather than looting.incompetent, corrupt and traitor lot and their leaks.

PPPP and PMLn, both are nowhere in mood to deal with corruption issue and bring back the looted money while doing justice with corrupt lot that in result, I don't think will leave any office bearer from both the parties to participate in election at all as per merit in future and both cannot afford as having no capable persons.

Sad to say but Judiciary is not playing her role at all. Moreover, as it is evident, the law is practiced more on the grounds of technicalities than merit. The advocates lot is also involved in this context for portraying the bad picture of law and judiciary especially after movement for restoration of Iftikhar Choudhary. In short, advocates are more concerned with their own practice and fees than helping to serve justice. More of them now-a-days are trying to have relations and contacts with top judicial persons while having a strong support from Political Offices and even most of the top officers from judiciary are being favoured in past by the then ruling political party so we can imagine the results. The top notch counsels are more concerned with party standing rather let the true facts be proven right.

In my opinion, such path of reform in shape of care taker government, will take time to execute all well in order as per current situation and definitely will cause crises in-case of a single wrong-step or mistake though, slow & steady wins the race.

 

[IceCold]

We are heading towards kind of political crises, if judiciary, establishment and sane voices of political arena failed to preempt well intime. Although sane political voices are negligible and NS is kind of arrogant guy. He is worst example of bad governance.

I hate the guy to the core. I have seen his previous tenures and he literally left the country bankrupt. But my personal opinion does not matter here what matters is what people collectively think. With Nawaz wining the Azad Kashmir election, the arrogance in him has only multiplied. Now who should we blame for this? He won. Even IK had to congratulate him.
Point that i am trying to make is that this nation never learns. They dont like change. From riding a 80's design honda 125 to the third time of Nawaz government, people are happy with the same old crap. Even if the new guy in GHQ thinks differently than the current COAS, there will be hardly anything to do. If he comes and over throws this government, people for a short moment might distribute sweats as happened in 99 but then what? Few years down the road and these very same people will come back as political martyrs. This nation having a memory loss syndrome would elect them again as history has proven it so many times.
My opinion is that more than 3 years have passed, there is no point in protesting now and create a vacuum where the military is forced to step in. Ideal thing to do would be to let this government continue their tenure so that this political martyr thing is out of the equation. The opposition in the meanwhile should help in election reforms. Make sure elections are not held the way they were in 2013. There should be absolutely no chance for rigging in the next election. I also believe that this is where armies help should be sought. If left on Nawaz and co, he will make sure that the next elections are held in similar manner like the previous ones. Over time he has mastered the art of rigging.
The opposition should remove two things from Nawaz's equation 1) becoming Political Martyr and 2) New election system with biometric system so rigging could be eliminated or minimised to an extent that it would not matter on the over all out come of the elections.
The conditions have to be changed inorder to get different results otherwise it will be the usual.

 

[Mrc]

Some.well written responses and great points..
Any accountability that is done needs to be across the board... this is very basic principle of justice .... same law and standard should apply to every one ... selective application makes it injustice...

Are we ready for this?? Pppp and 90% of PTI is either as guilty or even more guilty than NS...

Any ways accountability is just a smoke screen ...real aim here is to dethrone the govt...and become pm ...

Even if number 1 aim is achieved.... aim number 2 is not achieveable in 1000 years....

Dharna number 1 was planned and executed by musharaf and his group of ex army and civilian (choudhry shujaat ..sheikh rashid etc)....aim was never to make IK pm but to grab power for themselves....IK has shown zero capability of self reflection and learning so far and is being played around for a fool by various forces....

 

[sady]

A good discussion indeed.

I think there are two dimensions to this issue, what should happen and what will happen in coming days.

All the parties involved have certain objectives. PML N wants to be re elected next time around. If they want the moral standing to rule next time around they must win with a better election result, otherwise they will again will be left with times of indecisiveness and uncertainty. Though PML N expects to win next elections whether it will be a decisive victory is debatable. PML N would not like shaky foundations. So the next 2 years are very important for them, Either they would like to be made political martyr or be left unperturbed for the gimmicks that PML N specialises in.

PTI knows the next election will not bring any better results or worse they might lose a few seats. They are banking on change in command. Agitation in coming days will paralyse major votephilic developments and act as distraction. Better still a rash decision from a new Chief might tilt to them as the likely replacements. Win/Win

PAT will act as second fiddle to PTI, applying secondary pressure to unnerve the Gov on multiple fronts.

Establishment would like to preempt Nawaz's possible attempt to undermine New Chief who might require sometime to furnish his standing. Establishment has few bones of contentions with PML N. Almost nil development on corruption front even after a symbolic start of accountability from Army, PML N and PPP collusion in running of affairs pertaining to NAP as well as other terror-corruption nexus related issues, slow release of funds for FATA, CPEC blackmailing and dragging of feat, Weak response to Kashmir issue and accommodating Indian interests. They would like to put PML N under pressure but won't like it to spiral out of control. Army wants CPEC and other developments to be not affected at any cost. However they would like dampening of confidence achieved by PML N in taking on Army from recent Turkish debacle.

What should happen is PML N allowed to finish the term. Establishment ensure free and fair election. They have all the ability to do so. The agitation will achieve nothing substantial for Pakistan.

What will happen is A medium term movement which will end with slowing down development work in Pakistan, giving all the excuses to PML N for not delivering by end of term. There will be a stalemate which will end with some development on Panama issue or Election commission, largely to allow the parties some face saving. In the end giving enough time for COAS to consolidate his position and this game of cat and mouse will start again.

Sad.

 

[Neutron]

@The Eagle @IceCold @Mrc and @sady Thank you very much for your valuable responses.

...............

Re-occurance of any incident to stalemate anti government campaign at national level is more likely. It is very much difficult to predict that what kind of incident is good enough in their opinion to collectively effect the reasoning ability of whole nation during anti government campaign.
Situation in kashmir is not favourable for Indian army. Thier efforts to consolidate kashmir are not effective. Anything like limited war on LOC or exchange of fire more than normal or routine can effect the outcome or intensity of anti government campaign.
It depends on the rationality of Indian friends of NS either they will escalate tension on LOC or perpetuate terrorist attack inside Pakistan. Because they will like to protect the nexus of corruption and terrorism.

@Horus

 

[ghazi52]

 

[tarrar]

If ppp, anp, mqm, pml-n, jui-f are eliminated from Pakiatan, then Pakistan will move forward as the shackles will be broken.

 

[ghazi52]

 

[Neutron]

Quetta blast...seems like his friends are active ..... RAW want to protect Nexus of corruption and terrorism in Pakistan.

 

[ghazi52]

 

[Niazlion]

Imran khan and Tahir ul Qadri once again decided to protest against government.


Although they are not united right now but thier converging political intrests will bring them closer in coming days/months to exert collective pressure on practically strong but morally weak government.

what will be the strategy of united opposition against government?

It is self evident that same strategy produces same result in similar conditions.
Political conditions are some what similar with the last year . Judiciary failed to perform any authoritative rule and I can't expect any proactive and authoritative role from Judiciary as it is beyond thier legitimate role to investigate NS in Panama Scandel without existence of Law on that subject and smilar suits.

It was the responsibility of the legislature to legislate but they couldn't due to obvious reasons. Sadly, in our country Party intrest is superior than National Intrest.

General Raheel Shareef is very much popular in public due to his anti terrorism and anti corruption strategies. He led the Nation with vision and took very bold decision. His bold and precise approach resulted into decisive victory and concluded operation Zarb e Azab with combing operations across thd country. Karachi operation remained successful. I will not go into more details and statistics as member of this forum already know the general pulse of the country.

It is beyond the legitimate role of the GRS to take control matters related to federal government and Parliament but there is no other organ of the state effective enough to prevent upcoming political dead lock. Again the same situation. Same strategy will produce same result in similar conditions.

GRS is not interested in extention or intervention as clearly evident from his professional posture. After his retirement as on November 16, new army chief will enter in his office with lots of high hopes and prayers.

If they couldn't resolve this political deadlock before retirement of GRS new man soon after taking control will review the situation with his own perspective. Now in this equations conditions are different. So allow me to rephrase above mentioned rule.

Same strategy will produce different result in different conditions. In more clear words one can expect from different person to act differently. So I welcome you all to share your views.

@WAJsal @MastanKhan @Horus @The Eagle @waz @Slav Defence

When there is good governance working and assuring the country's positive popular existence in the world then obviously military intervision is not needed. Currently the govt is fine enough for country's good will, so things are going in right direction , Imran Khan should wait until next elections, so that policies of COAS could be in resulting position.. Long Live Pakistan Long live COAS

 

[Abdul Majid Saleem]

Imran Khan had a very good chance to show his sincerity with the State & Public of Pakistan by emphasizing and demonstrate the rise of quality of living in every manner within the society in KPK.

His government were able to show heart touching results to the rest of the Pakistani nation if he don't waste his time on Dharna politics, blame games etc.

All his advisors are still taking him to directions which in general not favourable for Imran Khan.

He has got the very bright chance to prove himself. But now it looks like in the next election he won't be able to win from KPK again due to waistage of time in such cheap politics.

 

[SBD-3]

Establishment would like to preempt Nawaz's possible attempt to undermine New Chief who might require sometime to furnish his standing. Establishment has few bones of contentions with PML N. Almost nil development on corruption front even after a symbolic start of accountability from Army, PML N and PPP collusion in running of affairs pertaining to NAP as well as other terror-corruption nexus related issues, slow release of funds for FATA, CPEC blackmailing and dragging of feat, Weak response to Kashmir issue and accommodating Indian interests. They would like to put PML N under pressure but won't like it to spiral out of control. Army wants CPEC and other developments to be not affected at any cost. However they would like dampening of confidence achieved by PML N in taking on Army from recent Turkish debacle.

What "symbolic start" are you referring to here?

Anyways the air is out of the baloon, thanks to Imran Khan's political teacher aka Sheeda Talli.

 

[arkhan1]

Useless protests , no point in pushing Nawaz , he's kind of untouchable.

 

[A.Muqeet khan]

The best solution in current situation is for political system to continue... conditions inside and outside country are no longer permissive for miliary rule...

I personally and i think most pakistanis would strongly oppose military intervention...i love military but its intervention at this point is not in national interest...

Short of that there is absolutely no game that IK can play that will dethrone the government...
To be honest ... his politics are beyond me....

I am unable to comprehend a scenario from military intervention to early elections where he himself can become the PM.... if any one knows what he is doing please enlighten us all

the current setup that has lost its legitimacy can also not be allowed to continue at any cost.The impression that elite are untouchable is wrong and needs to be killed.