Phase 2 of Ukraine crisis unfolding
The eruption of
public protests in eastern Ukraine calling for a “Crimea-like referendum” has an ominous overtone of the Phase 2 of the Ukraine crisis. With the annexation of Crimea accomplished and all the underpinnings put in place, Moscow is now pondering over the future of Ukraine. On the other hand, the West is also plotting future moves to consolidate its influence in Kiev.
Russia’s objective is four-fold: a) forestall, if possible, the presidential election in end-May in Ukraine which in all probability will throw up a ‘pro-West’ leadership; b) continue to stress the imperative need of Ukraine adopting a federal structure with diffusion of constitutional powers; c) stall the process leading to Ukraine’s integration with the European Union; and, d) block by all means the creeping advance of the NATO eastward to Ukraine.
Moscow seeks a level playing field in Ukraine, borne out of the conviction that Russia inherently enjoys greater leverage than the US to influence that country’s policies.
A foreign ministry statement in Moscow last Tuesday left little to imagination. It warned Kiev that past attempts to edge closer to the West “led to a freezing of Russian-Ukrainian political contacts, a headache between NATO and Russia and … to a division in Ukrainian society.” The statement warned that future economic ties between Russia and Ukraine “will largely depend on the actions Ukraine takes in foreign policy.”
Russia is pressing for its special interests in the former Soviet republics. But successive US administrations rejected the notion. Russia nonetheless holds a strong hand.
For one thing, Moscow can bring the Ukrainian economy down on its knees and force the rulers in Kiev to come to their senses. Thus, a battle of wits has begun with Russia slashing its gas subsidies for Ukraine and simultaneously asking for return of the amount of $11 billion it gave Ukraine in exchange for access to Crimea’s port facilities.
Moscow’s
argument may appear specious and in actuality it is piling pressure on Kiev. But herein lies a challenge also for the US and its European allies.
The International Monetary Fund has understood that Russia can wreck the the economic reform programme being drawn up for Kiev unless the West loosened its purse strings and is prepared to
underwrite the Ukrainian economy.
But then, no economic reform is conceivable in a climate of social and political turmoil. Unsurprisingly,
Kiev suspects that Moscow is fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine.
Top NATO commanders continue to warn that Russia is at the ready for military intervention in Ukraine. They allege that Moscow has not kept its word to withdraw forces on the Ukrainian border and this is “incredibly concerning”, as Russian army has
marshaled the capacity to “accomplish its objectives in between 3 and 5 days if directed to take actions.”
In fact, a perfect alibi is now available for the US to
jettison the pledge given to the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin in 1997 not to permanently station troops in the former Warsaw Pact countries that were being inducted into the western alliance. Poland has asked for deployment of 10000 NATO troops and some are expected in the coming days.
Therefore, the best spin one can give to the weekend’s unrest in the Russian-dominated eastern regions of Ukraine is that it is a wake-up call for ‘Old Europe’ not to push the envelope. At the same time, Moscow also seems to be
cognizant of the importance of encouraging the ‘doves’ in the European camp.
The EU foreign ministers’ meeting at Athens on Saturday underscored that Russia’s intentions are still being debated and there are
divergent opinions and estimations.
The Russian side too remains vigilant about the next US move. Notably, President Vladimir Putin is due to take a special meeting of the Federal Security Service later today in Moscow to “set the priorities” for the “activities and operations” of Russian intelligence in the turbulent year ahead.
By
M K Bhadrakumar – April 7, 2014
