U.S. Empire in Decline, on Collision Course with China

[pkd]

U.S. Empire in Decline, on Collision Course with China

The U.S. is an empire in decline, according to Niall Ferguson, Harvard professor and author of The Ascent of Money.
"People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong," Ferguson concedes. "But let's face it: If you're trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system...and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it's not really the conduct of rising empires, is it?"

Given its massive deficits and overseas military adventures, America today is similar to the Spanish Empire in the 17th century and Britain's in the 20th, he says. "Excessive debt is usually a predictor of subsequent trouble."

Putting a finer point on it, Ferguson says America today is comparable to Britain circa 1900: a dominant empire underestimating the rise of a new power. In Britain's case back then it was Germany; in America's case today, it's China.

"When China's economy is equal in size to that of the U.S., which could come as early as 2027...it means China becomes not only a major economic competitor - it's that already, it then becomes a diplomatic competitor and a military competitor," the history professor declares.

The most obvious sign of this is China's major naval construction program, featuring next generation submarines and up to three aircraft carriers, Ferguson says. "There's no other way of interpreting this than as a challenge to the hegemony of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region."

As to analysts like Stratfor's George Friedman, who downplay China's naval ambitions, Ferguson notes British experts - including Winston Churchill - were similarly complacent about Germany at the dawn of the 20th century.

"I'm not predicting World War III but we have to recognize...China is becoming more assertive, a rival not a partner," he says, adding that China's navy doesn't have to be as large as America's to pose a problem. "They don't have to have an equally large navy, just big enough to pose a strategic threat [and] cause trouble" for the U.S. Navy.

 

[r3alist]

i dont like a great deal about niall ferguson but what i do like is that he takes a long and wide view and factors in financial history, so he makes a good point, american domination is full spectrum; political, economic and military.

china are making progress on all fronts, america are declining on all fronts, long may it continue.....

 

[S-2]

"china are making progress on all fronts, america are declining on all fronts, long may it continue..... "

Long will it take.

That, of course, is assuming the presently converging trajectories. No guarantees there.

How quickly you and he forget 1.) the rapid diminishment of our last budget deficit, 2.) the reversal currently occuring in America of our economic fortunes and, 3.) the need for China to spend it's financial largesse to-

a.) build and sustain a high quality armed force, b.) address its immense infrastructural and environmental impediments and c.) to redress the gross income disparities that have concentrated immense wealth in the hands of a minisculely tiny elite.

This ignores, of course, whether the PRC will ever attempt to distribute its wealth not only among its own citizenry but assume any global responsibilities which won't ever show any (much less an immediate) impact to their bottom line.

To date they've done neither. Nor has the PRC operated below anybody's radar so it's not as though their efforts go unnoticed or without growing concern throughout Asia and in Washington D.C.

It shall be an interesting 21st century for all concerned.

 

[logic]

US Hegemony in decline Yes.
On collision course with China. Maybe but not in the next decade.
US needs another pearl harbor. It failed to fully utilize the previous one a decade ago.

 

[jwh]

"china are making progress on all fronts, america are declining on all fronts, long may it continue..... "

Long will it take.

That, of course, is assuming the presently converging trajectories. No guarantees there.

How quickly you and he forget 1.) the rapid diminishment of our last budget deficit, 2.) the reversal currently occuring in America of our economic fortunes and, 3.) the need for China to spend it's financial largesse to-

a.) build and sustain a high quality armed force, b.) address its immense infrastructural and environmental impediments and c.) to redress the gross income disparities that have concentrated immense wealth in the hands of a minisculely tiny elite.

This ignores, of course, whether the PRC will ever attempt to distribute its wealth not only among its own citizenry but assume any global responsibilities which won't ever show any (much less an immediate) impact to their bottom line.

To date they've done neither. Nor has the PRC operated below anybody's radar so it's not as though their efforts go unnoticed or without growing concern throughout Asia and in Washington D.C.

It shall be an interesting 21st century for all concerned.

I don't think china will become a rival for US as super power. We don't have the conditions the US had when US became the super power.

After World war 2, all old great powers were destroyed. The only one could take the leapship was the US. While today's world is different, There are now more great powers in the world, and this trend is getting obvious time by time. And they are not willing to follow behind one country as the leader.

But I don't agree with you that china will have problem to sustain a high quality armed force. If china's GDP reaches the level of the US, it will be able to sustain a armed force like the one of the US.
In terms of infrastructure, China is making great progress, we have already the longest high speed rail network, and scond longest highway network in the world. (to cite some numbers here, China produces 1/3 of world steel output and 1/2 of the world cement output.)

To reduce the wealth gap, china is also in progress, we are building up a nation wide pension system and a health care system for both farmer and workers. I see the progress also in my home village. While I have to say our pension and heath care system is still far behind that of western world, but the situation is getting better.

 

[S-2]

Thanks for the reasoned and interesting reply.

The achievements you noted are commendable, to be sure. Still, there's more to a high quality armed force than simply money though that's a great start. Assuring equal access (or nearly equal) to a high quality education for all your citizens allows your armed forces to select solid and capable young men and women to fill the increasingly technologically demanding tasks and positions of a modern armed force.

You are on that path, it seems, although how far along remains to be seen. Secondly, your armed forces-particularly the PLAN and PLAAF have a considerable operational distance yet to cover. Those associated technical skills and operational acumen won't be embedded overnight-particularly in the absence of any major military conflict to accelerate the learning process.

We've had those real world experiences and have built upon them. We continue to do so even now. Whether earthquakes in Pakistan or airstrikes in No-Fly zones, we haven't quit practicing and learning ourselves and believe that we still possess a curious and learning-based culture.

I'd suggest, also, that we are recovering slowly from this recent economic debacle. The Dow is over 10,000 for the first time in well over a year. I could easily see a scenario where ten years from now our budget is balanced and both our nat'l debt and trade deficit is minimal. That would mean our own growth measured against yours.

Nothing guaranteed, of course, but those possibilities exist and we'll be chasing those carrots in full recognition of the benefits to us by doing so.

Without a radical redistribution of wealth, I don't see the internal markets to sustain your projected growth. There are others- many others against whom your industries compete globally. Further, your environment is a difficult one with a legacy of pollution and severe fresh water shortages. That entails a massive long term investment to stabilize and has tremendous health implications to a nat'l population which isn't getting any smaller or necessarily younger. To that end, your nat'l pension system will soon learn about issues which our social security system is now facing full bore.

Anyway, a few thoughts to ponder but what happens to the PRC is likely the great question of the 21st century. We won't be going away. Whether you join us or not is more salient IMV.

Thanks.

 

[WarProfessor]

Thanks for the reasoned and interesting reply.

The achievements you noted are commendable, to be sure. Still, there's more to a high quality armed force than simply money though that's a great start. Assuring equal access (or nearly equal) to a high quality education for all your citizens allows your armed forces to select solid and capable young men and women to fill the increasingly technologically demanding tasks and positions of a modern armed force.

You are on that path, it seems, although how far along remains to be seen. Secondly, your armed forces-particularly the PLAN and PLAAF have a considerable operational distance yet to cover. Those associated technical skills and operational acumen won't be embedded overnight-particularly in the absence of any major military conflict to accelerate the learning process.

We've had those real world experiences and have built upon them. We continue to do so even now. Whether earthquakes in Pakistan or airstrikes in No-Fly zones, we haven't quit practicing and learning ourselves and believe that we still possess a curious and learning-based culture.

I'd suggest, also, that we are recovering slowly from this recent economic debacle. The Dow is over 10,000 for the first time in well over a year. I could easily see a scenario where ten years from now our budget is balanced and both our nat'l debt and trade deficit is minimal. That would mean our own growth measured against yours.

Nothing guaranteed, of course, but those possibilities exist and we'll be chasing those carrots in full recognition of the benefits to us by doing so.

Without a radical redistribution of wealth, I don't see the internal markets to sustain your projected growth. There are others- many others against whom your industries compete globally. Further, your environment is a difficult one with a legacy of pollution and severe fresh water shortages. That entails a massive long term investment to stabilize and has tremendous health implications to a nat'l population which isn't getting any smaller or necessarily younger. To that end, your nat'l pension system will soon learn about issues which our social security system is now facing full bore.

Anyway, a few thoughts to ponder but what happens to the PRC is likely the great question of the 21st century. We won't be going away. Whether you join us or not is more salient IMV.

Thanks.

When it comes to mentoring, you have some learning curve to reach the Chinese. And you need to learn to say you are sorry.

If you keep your irresponsible capital pilage world wide, and don't give a damb about Chinese dollar assets, you can kiss your dollar good bye.

As far as redistribution of wealth is concerned, you certainly did it well. What do you call what you have been doing? socialism? But I will give you some credit since I believe some form of redistribution of wealth is always necessary to maintain any institutions. All be it in the eyes of Zoro or Robinhood's it may seem wrong.

China won't go away too. With this round of development, China can truely afford for the first time in history to build great walls all around her and still survive well. But there are more in the world than just China and US.

Basically stop being a prick. And you will do fine with China. It maybe genetic or psycological, but Chinese usually side with the so called "weak/oppressed", "Let's create a club and screw the rest" ain't in Chinese blood. If you heed these, you might as well get a G2, all be it de-facto and will never be announced.

 

[S-2]

"And you need to learn to say you are sorry."

Personally? To you? Don't hold your breath.

"you can kiss your dollar good bye."

DOW is over 10,000 but I guess you don't understand what that means.

"What do you call what you have been doing? socialism?"

We sure as hell aren't reading from Mao's lil' red book. Neither are you. When are you going to break the news to your citizens that you've become just another authoritarian dictatorship wrapped in warm fuzzy proletariat B.S.?

And that they are your captive subjects who shall never see that utopia you've been dangling like a carrot in front of their noses. Nope.

They'll be working in the factories your generals own.

For peanuts. Whoops! Just like me to bring up your last warlord, ol' Chiang. What goes around, comes around in China.

"Basically stop being a prick."

Polite too I see.

"Let's create a club and screw the rest" ain't in Chinese blood."

Oh really? Maybe you should do a bit of research on your homeland's history if the CCP hasn't removed it from your books. There's a reason it was once called the Middle Kingdom. Looks as though you're eager to see a second coming.

Great chatting with you...

... you godless commie.

 

[WarProfessor]

"And you need to learn to say you are sorry."

Personally? To you? Don't hold your breath.

"you can kiss your dollar good bye."

DOW is over 10,000 but I guess you don't understand what that means.

"What do you call what you have been doing? socialism?"

We sure as hell aren't reading from Mao's lil' red book. Neither are you. When are you going to break the news to your citizens that you've become just another authoritarian dictatorship wrapped in warm fuzzy proletariat B.S.?

And that they are your captive subjects who shall never see that utopia you've been dangling like a carrot in front of their noses. Nope.

They'll be working in the factories your generals own.

For peanuts. Whoops! Just like me to bring up your last warlord, ol' Chiang. What goes around, comes around in China.

"Basically stop being a prick."

Polite too I see.

"Let's create a club and screw the rest" ain't in Chinese blood."

Oh really? Maybe you should do a bit of research on your homeland's history if the CCP hasn't removed it from your books. There's a reason it was once called the Middle Kingdom. Looks as though you're eager to see a second coming.

Great chatting with you...

... you godless commie.

Well I have to say I didn't keep my fingers crossed. I knew the beat will go on. But have you ever thought about without China in this world, don't you think you would be lonely before your Messiah returns?

 

[jwh]

As I said, China has already started redistribution of wealth. As to the enviormental problem, the global warming is the biggest problem, while other eviormental problems like air pollution can be easily solved with enough investment. For instance chinese cars are more energy saving than the american ones.
To the problem with water shortage, general speaking, we still have enough water. We have less water in north than in south, the South-North Water Transfer Project will solve the problem of water shortage in north. Besides our one child policy is still in power, it has dramatically reduced the population growth (to the rate same as France). This also eased the problem with water shortage.

 

[gambit]

You are on that path, it seems, although how far along remains to be seen. Secondly, your armed forces-particularly the PLAN and PLAAF have a considerable operational distance yet to cover. Those associated technical skills and operational acumen won't be embedded overnight-particularly in the absence of any major military conflict to accelerate the learning process.

We've had those real world experiences and have built upon them. We continue to do so even now. Whether earthquakes in Pakistan or airstrikes in No-Fly zones, we haven't quit practicing and learning ourselves and believe that we still possess a curious and learning-based culture.

Come to think of this...May be I am in error here but I can think of only Viet Nam as the last armed conflict China has, and that was a border dispute at that.

 

[jarnee]

Without a radical redistribution of wealth, I don't see the internal markets to sustain your projected growth. There are others- many others against whom your industries compete globally. Further, your environment is a difficult one with a legacy of pollution and severe fresh water shortages. That entails a massive long term investment to stabilize and has tremendous health implications to a nat'l population which isn't getting any smaller or necessarily younger. To that end, your nat'l pension system will soon learn about issues which our social security system is now facing full bore.

Anyway, a few thoughts to ponder but what happens to the PRC is likely the great question of the 21st century. We won't be going away. Whether you join us or not is more salient IMV.

Thanks.

Agree!! what China has not done is it has not increased the valuation of Yuan , main reason for that is to keep exports high.. as China is mainly an export driven economy selling consumer durables all across the world, However that is going to harm in long term. It is economically not wise.
A richer economy should have a self sustaining market also., not just export based..till that time you will not be able to bully any one in west in real term. Today's china is all export focused..it cannot risk relationships...on the cont array ..America and west can.

 

[jwh]

Agree!! what China has not done is it has not increased the valuation of Yuan , main reason for that is to keep exports high.. as China is mainly an export driven economy selling consumer durables all across the world, However that is going to harm in long term. It is economically not wise.
A richer economy should have a self sustaining market also., not just export based..till that time you will not be able to bully any one in west in real term. Today's china is all export focused..it cannot risk relationships...on the cont array ..America and west can.

China is focusing more on the inland market now, China just replaced the USA as the biggest auto market in the world. I think it's enough to back my point. Meanwhile high export rate means high competitiveness. All developing countries have low wage level, not only China.

 

[S-2]

"May be I am in error here but I can think of only Viet Nam as the last armed conflict China has, and that was a border dispute at that."

Yeah...how'd that go again?

I remember getting a brief in 1983 from a major who'd served in Nepal as our assistant military attache. Fluent in mandarin. Related some interesting conversations he'd had with his PLA counterpart over at the PRC embassy.

A first-class azz-whuppin'.

Of course, that was then but you'd know better than most-them damned Vietnamese are regular bamboo vipers when they get their blood up.

 

[gpit]

...

... you godless commie.

Godless commie is a strong point for China.

Unlike USA where Christianity is the main staple and crusaders can run amuck, China has many prevailing religions. Thus, a secular government can treat religious issues even-handedly without religious bias and prejudice. The cons side may be that the government may not heed people enough for religion’s need, if any.