How Erdogan survived the coup, and why we needed him to
Analysis: The attempted coup in Turkey over the weekend bore striking similarities to the military overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt three years ago; However, a combination of public support, military ineptitude, and economics all resulted in Erdogan being able to weather the storm.
Dr. Yaron Friedman|Published: 18.07.16
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Is this good or bad for Israel?
Hypothetically, had the Erdogan regime fell and been replaced by a secular military leadership, relations would have gotten better and gone back to the way they were before Erdogan came to power in 2003. However, no one knows what the actual relations between the military leadership and Israel are. Would Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen, currently in self imposed exile in Pennsylvania, have had a more moderate approach towards Israel than does Erdogan?
If one is to look at the current situation in Turkey, especially in light of the mass support Erdogan has, one can assume that had the coup succeeded, Turkey wouldn't have suddently become a secular country – it would have probably led to a civil war between the members of the military who are against the regime and those who support it, between religious and secular people, and between eastern and western Turkey.
Recognizing the fact that the Middle East is burning and that the revolts occurring on Turkey's southern borders are leading to anarchy, the Turkish opposition has expressed its opposition to a violent coup. The government and the opposition understand that ISIS is waiting for the moment when it can undermine the government and the border so that it can invade Turkey. The Turkish opposition therefore prefers to topple Erdogan democratically.
A show of Hamas support for Erdogan in Gaza
Hamas celebrated Erdogan's survival – especially since he is the organization's sponsor. However, this doesn’t mean that Israel should automatically be in support of his fall. Its important to remember that it is Erdogan is managing the reconciliation agreement with Israel, and is interested in normalizing relations.
Turkey – much like Qatar – is interested in supporting Gaza's rebuilding and sending food, clothes and building materials to Gaza, and is well aware that rocket fire from Gaza will ruin their investment. Therefore, Sunni Turkey's (and Qatar's) economic support is much more preferable to the alternative – Shia support from Iran and Hezbollah, which will invariably include explosive material, missiles, and and other weapons.
Erdogan won't turn into a great lover of Israel, but whether or not the government which would come to power after the coup would be a lesser evil is unknown. Despite his aversion to Israel, Erdogan has in interest in Israel being a tourism and economic partner for Turkey. The successful Turkish economy is a primary factor for the stability of the government, and is also what saved it during the attempted coup.
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Why I Rooted for the Turkish Coup Attempt
by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online
July 18, 2016
Every major government condemned the coup attempt in Turkey, as did all four of the parties with representatives in the Turkish parliament. So did even Fethullah Gülen, the religious figure accused of being behind the would-be take over.
All of which leaves me feeling a little lonely, having tweeted out on Friday, just after the revolt began, "#Erdoğan stole the most recent election in #Turkey and rules despotically. He deserves to be ousted by a military coup. I hope it succeeds."
Having this nearly-minority-of-one stance suggests that an explanation longer than 140 characters is in order. Three reasons account for my supporting the ouster of the apparently democratically elected and democratically ruling president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, by what are apparently the forces of reaction:
Erdoğan stole the election. Erdoğan is an Islamist who initially made his mark, both as mayor of Istanbul and as prime minister of Turkey, by playing within the rules. As time wore on, however, he grew disdainful of those rules, specifically the electoral ones. He monopolized state media, tacitly encouraged physical attacks on opposition-party members, and stole votes. In particular, the most recent national election, on November 1, showed many signs of manipulation.
Erdoğan rules despotically. Erdoğan has taken control of one institution after another, even in the two years since he became president, a constitutionally and historically non-political position. The result? An ever-growing portion of Turks are working directly under his control or that of his minions: the prime minister, the cabinet, the judges, the police, the educators, the bankers, the media owners, and other business leaders. The military leadership has acquiesced to Erdoğan but, as the coup attempt confirmed, the officer corps has remained the one institution still outside his direct control.
Erdoğan uses his despotic powers for malign purposes, waging what amounts to a civil war against the Kurds of southeastern Turkey, helping ISIS, aggressing against neighbors, and promoting Sunni Islamism.
Fighting between Kurds and police has done much damage in Istanbul's Gazi district.
Military intervention has previously worked in Turkey. Turkey is the country where military coups d'état have had the most positive effect. In all four of the modern coups (1960, 1971, 1980, 1997), the general staff has shown a disciplined understanding of its role -- to right the ship of state and then get out of its way. Their ruling interludes lasted, respectively, five years, two and a half years, three years, and zero years.
Turkey would benefit now from a spell of military readjustment, ending Erdoğan's increasingly rogue rule, even if that meant replacing him with more reasonable Islamist figures from his own party, such as Abdallah Gül or Ali Babacan.
In the memorable words of Çevik Bir, a leading figure in the 1997 coup: "In Turkey we have a marriage of Islam and democracy. ... The child of this marriage is secularism. Now this child gets sick from time to time. The Turkish Armed Forces is the doctor which saves the child." That child is now very sick and needs its doctor. Sadly, the doctor was stopped this time. One can only imagine how badly the sickness will now spread.
Gen. Cevik Bir presented me with a souvenir at Turkish military headquarters in Ankara, 1997.
We have an initial idea how it will look: 6,000 Turks have already been detained, almost 3,000 judges and prosecutors have been fired, and relations with Washington have escalated to near-crisis mode over Erdoğan's demand for Gülen's extradition. However rocky the past road, the future one looks yet more harrowing.
I renew my prediction that Erdoğan's undoing will likely be in foreign affairs. Applying the same bellicosity that works so well in domestic politics to international relations, he will probably meet his doom one time when he's just too aggressive for his own good. After paying a heavy price, Turkey will be finally be rid of its megalomaniac.
- Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is the president of the Middle East Forum. © 2016 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.