Turkish lira weakens as inflation soars to highest in Erdogan era

[aryobarzan]

Inflation is on the agenda of the whole world. Some of the latest news I read for example: Even in Germany, electricity and natural gas have doubled. Likewise in England. The situation in the Balkan countries is much more difficult.

Half of the US public believes inflation figures have been manipulated, and even Biden had to say something about it recently. The inflation problem in Russia cannot be overcome, there is an inflation rate of almost 40% in Turkey, and even in Iran, which is a net energy exporter, inflation is around 40%. So it is necessary to consider this issue in a broader perspective. What I want to say is that the changing economic balances in the world are pushing the residents in many corners of the world, especially people with low incomes.

Only in this forum, the number of titles opened using the news in the international press about the Turkish economy is around 50. I think the other issue that needs to be discussed is why Turkey is the focal point? Inflation in Turkey has become world news. Why? Is Turkey that important? Simply, No. But every week, the message is given by an official from an international financial institution, or more often by newspaper headlines, that Turkey did not go the way we suggested and it will pay the price. This effort to disciplinizing is clearly meaning.

I fully agree with your statement...people who pick on Turkish lira forget the big picture that Turkey and Iran are two countries that have thriving economies of the region each having to deal with their own unique issues...People in these two countries work and work hard..I look at what they produce and it is impressive..as you said every one has inflation some hide it like US or Canada....and for some others it becomes a political football...

I salute Turks for their 250 billion dollar export ability regardless of who runs their country it is a matter for them to sort out.

 

[Indos]

In my opinion, the reason the inflation is so high is due to huge printing money. It is also happening during Soekarno period due to his ambition to invade Malaya and have war with many countries in process ( Britain, Australia, Malaya ( Malaysia and Singapore), and New Zealand

 

[Zibago]

In my opinion, the reason the inflation is so high is due to huge printing money. It is also happening during Soekarno period due to his ambition to invade Malaya and have war with many countries in process ( Britain, Australia, Malaya ( Malaysia and Singapore), and New Zealand

Turkey has a healthy economy all this pressure is due to low interest rates
If Turkey would hike them up inflation would come down sharply

 

[Foinikas]

Only in this forum, the number of titles opened using the news in the international press about the Turkish economy is around 50. I think the other issue that needs to be discussed is why Turkey is the focal point? Inflation in Turkey has become world news. Why? Is Turkey that important? Simply, No. But every week, the message is given by an official from an international financial institution, or more often by newspaper headlines, that Turkey did not go the way we suggested and it will pay the price. This effort to disciplinizing is clearly meaning.

Yes,because Erdogan has been purchasing expensive weapons systems and plans huge buildings and talks about Turkey as if it's a superpower. I mean...aircraft carriers? More submarines? More S-400s? More ships? New Pentagon?

 

[dBSPL]

Yes,because Erdogan has been purchasing expensive weapons systems and plans huge buildings and talks about Turkey as if it's a superpower. I mean...aircraft carriers? More submarines? More S-400s? More ships? New Pentagon?

According to its population, Greece is several times more militarized than Turkey. In fact, one of the issues that triggered the economic depression in Greece is excessive armament (or resource management failure).

I have never seen you criticize the purchases of rafale or belharra... In fact, you probably say that these are not enough, they need to be armed more...Same you, you are supposedly giving expert advise Turkey here.

Turkey is a country that has serious security concerns in its geopolitical reality. It is fighting against possibly the most organized and internationally supported terrorist organization in the world. On their borders, there are states that do not officially recognize Turkish borders. It has neighbors who have placed missile launchers in areas where it is necessary to be unarmed, in violation of international agreements. Turkey is a country of +80 million people and has traditionally been an operationally one of the important parts of NATO/UN peace forces. From Bosnia to Kosovo, from Lebanon to Afghanistan, the TAF is actively part of many missions. Therefore, it should maintain a proportional inventory and deterrence.

Turkey does not arm itself excessively, but some of its neighbors disregard the smallness of its resources, and buying weapons and signing new debts to arm-seller as if there is no tomorrow.

In order to see your sincerity, I expect you to open a topic where you direct the same criticisms to Greece.

 

[Foinikas]

According to its population, Greece is several times more militarized than Turkey. In fact, one of the issues that triggered the economic depression in Greece is excessive armament (or resource management failure).

Resource management failure,not "excessive armament". Your population ratio and ours is different. You have 3-5 times more equipment and men compared to us. We have to spend all that money to equip,because of you.

I have never seen you criticize the purchases of rafale or belharra... In fact, you probably say that these are not enough, they need to be armed more...Same you, you are supposedly giving expert advise Turkey here.

Why would I criticize the new purchases? Our Armed Forces have been left behind the last 10 years with the crisis. The last time we bought new frigates was in the late '80s to early '90s. And of course they aren't enough. Have you seen the crazy arms purchases your country has been into the last 10 years?

It's like Akar's rhetoric:

Turkey is a country that has serious security concerns in its geopolitical reality. It is fighting against possibly the most organized and internationally supported terrorist organization in the world.

Which organization is that?

On their borders, there are states that do not officially recognize Turkish borders. It has neighbors who have placed missile launchers in areas where it is necessary to be unarmed, in violation of international agreements.

Go on,name those nations. Because if you're referring to Greece,we have not placed garrisons on the islands illegally and we have every right to defend these islands,especially when Turkish official rhetoric is of "Mavi Vatan" and talking about "Greece illegally occupying Turkish islands".

Turkey does not arm itself excessively, but some of its neighbors disregard the smallness of its resources, and buying weapons and signing new debts to arm-seller as if there is no tomorrow.

Buying 2 aircraft carriers/drone carriers and planning to buy a third one later,is not excessive? Producing ballistic missiles is not excessive? Building more and more frigates and corvettes,is not? Planning to increase and not reduce the submarine fleet,is not excessive? And all those 750+ projects MMM-E used to quote,are not?

Well this is the predicament of the Turkish economy. You talk about our debt,but Turkey has 36,08% inflation now. The people are complaining.

 

[dBSPL]

Resource management failure,not "excessive armament". Your population ratio and ours is different. You have 3-5 times more equipment and men compared to us. We have to spend all that money to equip,because of you.


Why would I criticize the new purchases? Our Armed Forces have been left behind the last 10 years with the crisis. The last time we bought new frigates was in the late '80s to early '90s. And of course they aren't enough. Have you seen the crazy arms purchases your country has been into the last 10 years?

It's like Akar's rhetoric:

View attachment 805934


Which organization is that?


Go on,name those nations. Because if you're referring to Greece,we have not placed garrisons on the islands illegally and we have every right to defend these islands,especially when Turkish official rhetoric is of "Mavi Vatan" and talking about "Greece illegally occupying Turkish islands".


Buying 2 aircraft carriers/drone carriers and planning to buy a third one later,is not excessive? Producing ballistic missiles is not excessive? Building more and more frigates and corvettes,is not? Planning to increase and not reduce the submarine fleet,is not excessive? And all those 750+ projects MMM-E used to quote,are not?

Well this is the predicament of the Turkish economy. You talk about our debt,but Turkey has 36,08% inflation now. The people are complaining.

Just a few years ago, Russia almost divided Georgia into two. When the Libyan war started in the Eastern Mediterranean, 50,000 Turkish citizens were caught in the middle of the war. We had to carry out the biggest rescue operation in the history of the Republic. The newest frigate in the Turkish navy is 25 years old. The newest submarine is 15 years old. We have to quickly modernize the entire fleet. Turkey's new security concept starts from the seas, and logistics cap up to Libya, has a vital role here.
*
Turkey is a peninsula that dominates 3 seas, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Islands sea. The only issue that the Turkish navy should think about is not the Sea of Islands. There is no need for an aircraft carrier for this. The bird flight between Athens and Izmir is under 300 km. Limiting Turkey's threat perception to Greece is a deliberate manipulation effort. Turkey's need for LHD has nothing to do with Greece. If we had an LHD in 2011, we wouldn't have had to put civilian ships in the middle of the war.

Also, Turkey does not need long-range ballistic missiles to attack Greece. Greece also has a similar range of strike capability(Scalp) that Turkey already has.
*
Turkey will receive the second system for the S-400. TR also signed a joint development memorandum with SAMP-T developer countries. It is even working on the SIPER project. Because Turkey LIVED WITHOUT A LONG RANGE AIR DEFENSE PROTECTION for years. While dozens of mortar shells were falling from Syria every day and dozens of Turkish citizens were losing their lives, we had to ask for help from Italy and Spain. This is an urgent need and purchases will continue. We don't have to take these risks any longer just because Foinikas Pasha wanted it.
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Akar's expressions have been clipped and twisted. I can bring the full text of the any speech you want. And, Turkey does not occupy any Greek island. The concept of the Blue Homeland has nothing to do with it. Its basic understanding is to direct the Turkish nation to maritime and to adopt the importance of the seas. Turkey has almost 8500 kilometers of coastline and we have no intention of usurping any country's 5500 square kilometers of maritime jurisdiction due to any islet.
*
Bu on the contrary, Greece insists on ignoring the Lausanne agreement and violating international law. Learn to stick to agreements first. Then blame others...

I almost forgot, Why does Greece protect the putschists fleeing from Turkey? Does Greece think it can improve relations by ignoring all of Turkey's requests? You even tried to protect Öcalan in past, who was responsible for the death of 30,000 Turkish citizens. Could there be a more threatening move than this? I'm not talking with facebook caps, these are real facts.
*
The state that does not recognize the borders of Turkey is Armenia. The head of state who says he will take Hatay is Bashar Assad. (His father had said same before. His father also patronized the Pkk leader for many years) Turkey has multiple risk perceptions and, naturally, different strategies it has developed against them. Here is another manipulation effort where you show Greece as the only factor.
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The terrorist organization I am talking about is Pkk/kck/pyd and is officially supported by the US defense budget.
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90% of the approximately 750 projects carried out by the defense industry are on vertical specialization and production technologies. Only very few of them are based on the main systems, which they predominantly export-oriented strategy already.

While European and American arms dealers are milking you like cows, Turkey prefers not to be a part of this anymore and to get rid of foreign dependency in the defense industry.

You can't blame us for that. On the contrary, Greek taxpayers should demand the same and start hundreds of projects on a subsystem basis as soon as possible.
*
We have learned to live with inflation. In the 70's, 80's, 90's, we always had inflation above 30%. The real question is, can you get used to living with it?

The Turkish economy is in a process of transformation and our ultimate goal is to achieve a full transition to a production economy. We are working for this purpose and we will definitely achieve it one day.

***

Again, Greece is one of the countries that spend the most on military armament in the world, compared to its population and income. It ranks second after Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey cannot even come close to Greece in terms of its GDP/armament ratio and per capita armament expenditure. We have military projects pending for 20 years, because our resources are limited and we want to produce locally.

Your difference from Israel is that while Israel spends a significant part of this budget on developing domestic technology wisely, and it gained a special place in the world. But you, continue to borrow for military spendings and selling tomorrows.

 

[Foinikas]

the newest frigate in the Turkish navy is 25 years old. The newest submarine is 15 years old.

But you have modern corvettes. 5 of them so far. And 15 years isn't bad for a submarine.

Also, Turkey does not need long-range ballistic missiles to attack Greece. Greece also has a similar range of strike capability(Scalp) that Turkey already has.

Yes,but you still have them. The Turkish excuse is that you need all these weapons for other enemies. However,most of the threats are directed at us. What would you use in case of war? "Oh don't worry,we're not going to use ballistic missiles"?

And you know what,you can buy or make them,ok. It's your decision. You want to make your country stronger. But don't come and say afterwards "Oh Greece is arming,Greece is a bad neighbor". And that doesn't go just for the ballistic missiles,that goes for weapons in general.

Akar's expressions have been clipped and twisted. And, Turkey does not occupy any Greek island. The concept of the Blue Homeland has nothing to do with it. Its basic understanding is to direct the Turkish nation to maritime and to adopt the importance of the seas.

Turkey does not,are you implying that we are occupying "Turkish" islands? Akar and Cavusoglu often make provocative statements. Training men to swim the same distance as Kastellorizo,what kind of buffoonish message is that? Do you consider that as good diplomacy?

Bu on the contrary, Greece insists on ignoring the Lausanne agreement and violating international law. Learn to stick to agreements first. Then blame others...

Greece is 100% in accordance with the Lausanne agreement and international law:

I almost forgot, Why does Greece protect the putschists fleeing from Turkey? Does Greece think it can improve relations by ignoring all of Turkey's requests? You even tried to protect Öcalan in past, who was responsible for the death of 30,000 Turkish citizens. Could there be a more threatening move than this?

Putschists fled to Greece from Turkey and asked for political asylum.

As for Ocalan....that fiasco was an attempt to keep a counterweight in case of war with Turkey. Just like Turkey probably already has plans for muslims inside the country to start things,in case of a war...

*
The state that does not recognize the borders of Turkey is Armenia. The head of state who says he will take Hatay is Bashar Assad. (His father had said same before. His father also patronized the Pkk leader for many years) Turkey has multiple risk perceptions and, naturally, different strategies it has developed against them. Here is another manipulation effort where you show Greece as the only factor.

I'm not going to defend communist Kurdish guerillas,I'm not in favor of them.

While European and American arms dealers are milking you like cows, Turkey prefers not to be a part of this anymore and to get rid of foreign dependency in the defense industry.

Yes and they had been milking you for decades too. Our defence industry didn't flourish like the Turkish one due to machinations and stupid governments. Eh,what can you do? Stay like this? You have to defend your country somehow.

Turkey will receive the second system for the S-400. It will even get SAMP-T. It is even working on the SIPER project. Because Turkey LIVED WITHOUT A LONG RANGE AIR DEFENSE PROTECTION for years. This is an urgent need and purchases will continue. We don't have to take these risks any longer just because Foinikas Pasha wanted it.

Nobody said you can't do it. You can do it. But don't complain about the economy then and don't blame Greece of "an arms race".
That's what I'm trying to tell you.

We have learned to live with inflation. In the 70's, 80's, 90's, we always had inflation above 30%. The real question is, can you get used to living with it?

We're not the ones pretending to be a regional superpower or trying to build bases around the world and fight in 5 fronts at the same time.

Again, Greece is one of the countries that spend the most on military armament in the world, compared to its population and income.

And guess why. Because we've almost been to war 3 times since the late '80s? Because of constant tensions and provocations? Because Turkey is bigger and stronger than us maybe?

 

[American Pakistani]

Inflation is on the agenda of the whole world. Some of the latest news I read for example: Even in Germany, electricity and natural gas have doubled. Likewise in England. The situation in the Balkan countries is much more difficult.

Half of the US public believes inflation figures have been manipulated, and even Biden had to say something about it recently. The inflation problem in Russia cannot be overcome, there is an inflation rate of almost 40% in Turkey, and even in Iran, which is a net energy exporter, inflation is around 40%. So it is necessary to consider this issue in a broader perspective. What I want to say is that the changing economic balances in the world are pushing the residents in many corners of the world, especially people with low incomes.

Only in this forum, the number of titles opened using the news in the international press about the Turkish economy is around 50. I think the other issue that needs to be discussed is why Turkey is the focal point? Inflation in Turkey has become world news. Why? Is Turkey that important? Simply, No. But every week, the message is given by an official from an international financial institution, or more often by newspaper headlines, that Turkey did not go the way we suggested and it will pay the price. This effort to disciplinizing is clearly meaning.

I see many articles with title somehow blaming Imran Khan or Erdogan. The fact is that entire world is facing inflation. Things are very bad here in America too.

 

[dBSPL]

But you have modern corvettes. 5 of them so far. And 15 years isn't bad for a submarine.


Yes,but you still have them. The Turkish excuse is that you need all these weapons for other enemies. However,most of the threats are directed at us. What would you use in case of war? "Oh don't worry,we're not going to use ballistic missiles"?

And you know what,you can buy or make them,ok. It's your decision. You want to make your country stronger. But don't come and say afterwards "Oh Greece is arming,Greece is a bad neighbor". And that doesn't go just for the ballistic missiles,that goes for weapons in general.


Turkey does not,are you implying that we are occupying "Turkish" islands? Akar and Cavusoglu often make provocative statements. Training men to swim the same distance as Kastellorizo,what kind of buffoonish message is that? Do you consider that as good diplomacy?


Greece is 100% in accordance with the Lausanne agreement and international law:

View attachment 805950


Putschists fled to Greece from Turkey and asked for political asylum.

As for Ocalan....that fiasco was an attempt to keep a counterweight in case of war with Turkey. Just like Turkey probably already has plans for muslims inside the country to start things,in case of a war...


I'm not going to defend communist Kurdish guerillas,I'm not in favor of them.


Yes and they had been milking you for decades too. Our defence industry didn't flourish like the Turkish one due to machinations and stupid governments. Eh,what can you do? Stay like this? You have to defend your country somehow.


Nobody said you can't do it. You can do it. But don't complain about the economy then and don't blame Greece of "an arms race".
That's what I'm trying to tell you.


We're not the ones pretending to be a regional superpower or trying to build bases around the world and fight in 5 fronts at the same time.


And guess why. Because we've almost been to war 3 times since the late '80s? Because of constant tensions and provocations? Because Turkey is bigger and stronger than us maybe?

I hope that all the Greek bureaucracy that directs military expenditures, share the same view as you. You neither know about what is happening in the world nor what is Turkey making. You just write something with the premise that all activity in Turkey is against Greece.

While Turkey's military expenditures were around 1.2 - 1.45% for many years, it increased to 1.6 - 1.8 in recent years. For the last 3 years, NATO has been imposing on its members to increase to the 2% band. Although Turkey is one of the 4 biggest forces of NATO in terms of military size, it has not even reached that target yet.

Yes, all the things you keep writing so much are not even 1 point compared to GDP. And the main message of what you wrote is that military spending is sinking Turkey. Moreover, you are writing about a country that has a domestic rate of 65% in the defense industry and has a target of 80% in the medium term. While Turkey can manage to keep most of its expenditures domestically, Greece only signs debt securities.

Turkey has no dreams of becoming a superpower. However, it has the goal of being a factor whose national interests cannot be ignored. I hope next government can not resist as akp did, and Turkey's military budget rise to the range of 2%'ish can easily be achieved by reducing the budget spent on religious affairs or any other unnecessary area.

*

It takes more than just political asylum defense to protect the criminals who tried to destroy the constitutional order in the country and are responsible for the 250 deaths. While Greece had the opportunity to extradite these criminals, it backfired, and it will never be forgotten.

I will share detailed images about which articles Greece violated and the islands that were heavily armed. This topic also has a wide scope that we need to discuss in its thread, and frankly, I don't want to pass it off with a short message at midnight.

*
And Akar's full statement is as follows:

"We have problems with Greece in the sea of islands and in the eastern Mediterranean. What we say against all these problems is to solve the problems through negotiations, dialogue, peaceful ways and methods within the framework of international law and good neighborly relations. Unfortunately, certain politicians in Greece continue their extremely aggressive actions and rhetoric on this issue. They wants to present Turkey as an expansionist with extremely contrived and artificial claims."

We clearly convey that Greece is arming the islands in violation of international agreements. There is Meis Island, 1950 meters from Turkey. The swimming standard of the Military Academy student is 2,000 meters. It is an island of 10 square kilometers. But They want a maritime jurisdiction of 40 thousand square kilometers to this island.

When we say 'no' to this, we become 'expansionists'. We expect them to understand that they will not achieve anything with these actions and statements. We say that we are waiting for them in Ankara for the fourth meeting to be held within the framework of confidence-building measures. We want the peoples of the two countries to lead their lives in safety and prosperity by taking advantage of these existing riches. We expect them to understand that there is no weakness." https://aydinlik.com.tr/yunanistan-...aklikta-harbiyeli-2000-metre-yuzuyor-269118-1

In other words, the general content of his statement is related to the fact that Greece should not avoid the meeting in Ankara and that still a common roadmap can be created. You take from here only the part in which Turkish minister declares that TR is not afraid of any threat.

 

[Indos]

Turkey has a healthy economy all this pressure is due to low interest rates
If Turkey would hike them up inflation would come down sharply

Turkey has already had history of high inflation this is why even their current interest rate is still very high. Indonesia Central Bank interest rate for instant is just 3 percent but it is still giving investors in SBI (Bank of Indonesia certificate) a real positive interest rate since our inflation in 2021 is below 2 %. Lower interest rate then make the Lira hugely depreciated (because they now have negative real interest) that exacerbate the inflation problem from imported goods, raw material and fuels.

Many variables should be counted and analyzed as inflation can come from various causes. External factor like The Fed tapering and possible interest rate increase in the coming months become another important factor, this is why all developing countries currencies are going down but in different rate, depending on the economic fundamental of each nation and also the policy made by respective Central Bank.

Pakistan high inflation rate I suspect also come from printing the money, Pakistan government often financed the budget deficit from borrowing directly from Pakistan Central Bank. The best solution is to get the financing by issuing the gov bond, but due to Pakistan weak economic fundamental, the yield will be quite high, this is why Pak gov prefer getting the financing from Central Bank beside getting the financing from IMF and through bilateral cooperation like with Saudi and China ( offering lower interest rate than the financial market) . IMF has warned Pakistan not to do so as far as I know.

Actually in some cases, printing money will not create huge pressure on inflation, particularly happened for strong economies with high productivity and low inflation and for special case like USA it is due to USD position in world trade ( high demand ). The volume of the printing is of course one important factor in relation to its impact on inflation.

 

[Indos]

Turkey has a healthy economy all this pressure is due to low interest rates

Turkey economic fundamental is not as healthy as you think, and it is right that Erdogan makes thing worst as he makes economic policy that is against the market system mechanism ( in financial market ). Turkey can make intervention of course in the financial market as they have huge USD from their tourist sector but there is always a limit to do such thing

 

[Foinikas]

You just write something with the premise that all activity in Turkey is against Greece.

Man I'm not saying all activity is against Greece. I'm saying the biggest possibility for war is against us. You've proven that you have other enemies and you've been involved in other conflicts.

Edit: We've diverted from the main subject a lot,let's forget this. I won't post here anymore and let the economists say their part.

 

[Indos]

Turkish central bank sold nearly $7.28B in 5 market interventions
BY DAILY SABAH WITH AGENCIES
ISTANBUL JAN 07, 2022 - 3:43 PM GMT+3

Turkish central bank sold nearly $7.28B in 5 market interventions

Turkey’s central bank sold around $2.12 billion (TL 29.36 billion) during its direct market intervention on Dec. 17 to support the Turkish lira, it said...

www.dailysabah.com