Turkish lira slide triggers fresh central bank intervention

[dBSPL]

Turkey is based on a free market and fully integrated into the financial system, especially with Europe. If the mistake of fixing the exchange rate were made here, (as other some states whose currency was devalued rapidly) this could had very serious consequences for the economy.

On the other hand, I wish good luck to those who opened a long position in USD-TRY parity from 17 liras. HODL may not work this time. Because the government decided to subsidize TRY depositors. It also provided a liquidity guarantee for the exporter against pricing problems that may arise from exchange rate volatility.

The problem in the country is not the dollar problem, on the contrary, the state has been the driving force in bringing the dollar to this level by pouring gasoline on the fire.

Now that the treasury has enjoyed the comfort of giving a current account surplus, I do not think that they will want to leave it again. Therefore, they will certainly not want the dollar to fall below 11-12 liras.(IMO they will want to keep the 1/15 level, it is not investment advice btw.) For them, the problem was the extraordinary volatility caused by the speculative movements on TRY and the increase in FOMO, driven by the stubbornness of reducing interest rates despite the inflation pressure. Devaluated TRY is a great advantage for the exporter, while the volatility is the biggest problem of the exporters same time.

 

[Communism]

Turkey is based on a free market and fully integrated into the financial system, especially with Europe. If the mistake of fixing the exchange rate were made here, (as other some states whose currency was devalued rapidly) this could had very serious consequences for the economy.

On the other hand, I wish good luck to those who opened a long position in USD-TRY parity from 17 liras. HODL may not work this time. Because the government decided to subsidize TRY depositors. It also provided a liquidity guarantee for the exporter against pricing problems that may arise from exchange rate volatility.

The problem in the country is not the dollar problem, on the contrary, the state has been the driving force in bringing the dollar to this level by pouring gasoline on the fire.

Now that the treasury has enjoyed the comfort of giving a current account surplus, I do not think that they will want to leave it again. Therefore, they will certainly not want the dollar to fall below 11-12 liras.(IMO they will want to keep the 1/15 level, it is not investment advice btw.) For them, the problem was the extraordinary volatility caused by the speculative movements on TRY and the increase in FOMO, driven by the stubbornness of reducing interest rates despite the inflation pressure. Devaluated TRY is a great advantage for the exporter, while the volatility is the biggest problem of the exporters same time.

Capital controls in situations like this simply means holding the general population (excluding the oligarchs) hostage while Erdogan continues to print Turkish lira.

It effectively means that instead of just destroying his own credibility, he is determined to destroy the wealth of every single non-oligarch in the country and will crash and burn the entire country.

We'll see the exact details on the capital controls soon.

Either they will be effective and Erdogan goes on unstoppably bankrupting most of the citizenry, or, the capital controls will not be very effective and the Turkish Lira resumes hyperinflationary collapse.

Neither outcome are good.

Erdogan and his oligarch posse have already done the classic private equity trick of gaining control of the company (country), loaded up the company (country) with as much outside debt as possible, transfer/launder that money out of the company (country), and finally we get to the end game where the creditors start refusing to loan any more money to the clear scam company (country).

Erdogan then blames the "other" while he continues to loot as long as he possibly can.

If Erdogan successfully gets the majority of the population to accept capital controls, he will have bought himself an indeterminate amount of time to liquidate the direct assets of the country before he skedaddles (assuming he is doing this on purpose and isn't literally retarded enough to believe his own propaganda).

 

[dBSPL]

The oligarchic structure in the Turkish economy is based on TUSIAD, although I respect what people write here, unfortunately you talk like an expert without having enough knowledge about Turkey's internal dynamics. It is the most powerful economic organization that has managed to overthrow the governments many times in Turkey. These are the men who greeted the prime minister of the state in his private residence in the 90s in their pajamas. Still the most important place in the entire financial system of the country belongs to the members of this organization.

TUSIAD wants high interest and flat course exchange rate parity. This structure, which has high credibility and articulated with the Atlanticist structure deeply, brings loans from abroad with low interest and multiplies its wealth with high interest inside. Last week, they issued a statement threatening Erdogan openly. Of course, you don't know all this.

You overestimate Erdogan too much. You even overtaken AKP supporters. Erdogan is now able to hold the government with the support of the MHP and other nationalists. These were the people who were Erdogan's biggest opponents before 2013. Between 2013 and 2016, the balances turned upside down. Erdogan, the man of the west, has become a threat to the west for some reason.

 

[Communism]

The oligarchic structure in the Turkish economy is based on TUSIAD, although I respect what people write here, unfortunately you talk like an expert without having enough knowledge about Turkey's internal dynamics. It is the most powerful economic organization that has managed to overthrow the governments many times in Turkey. The most important place in the entire financial system of the country belongs to the members of this organization.

TUSIAD wants a flat course in high interest and exchange rate parity. This structure, which has high credibility and articulated with the Atlanticist structure deeply, brings loans from abroad with low interest and multiplies its wealth with high interest inside. Last week, they issued a statement threatening Erdogan openly. Of course, you don't know all this.

You overestimate Erdogan too much. You even overtaken AKP supporters. Erdogan is now able to hold the government with the support of the MHP and other nationalists. These were the people who were Erdogan's biggest opponents before 2013.

Erdogan has been in power since 2003.
Erdogan has been the paramount leader for most of the last decade.
Pushing the blame for his own policies to some other group stopped being believable quite a while ago.

 

[dBSPL]

Erdogan has been in power since 2003.
Erdogan has been the paramount leader for most of the last decade.
Pushing the blame for his own policies to some other group stopped being believable quite a while ago.

Erdogan had the chance to build his own power after 2014. Being prime minister in 2003 does not mean that he owns the country's government. In order to understand this better, it is necessary to look at the establishment and political dynamics in Turkey, the impact of military and economic dynamics on Turkish politics, and the balance and control mechanisms of the old parliamentary system.

Even the 2003 AKP is a coalition of liberals/conservatives in itself, dominated by pro-US, if you look deeply at the Central Board and its advisors. The FETO members who attempted a military coup in 2016 were also a part of this coalition.

It is this former AKP that is trying to negotiate a mutual peace with the PKK, and that has signed off on something called the peace process which was completly bullsht. Today, the AKP's base is ideologically shifting from old Initiatives and stupid conservative/liberal approaches, to the 'Turkish type' nationalism. The reason for this is that the Erdoğan is stuck ideologically and needs the support of the nationalists against his old allies and their structure. What could be the long-term consequences of this? If all nationalists in Turkey can find a common perspective, when Erdogan's term is over, the nationalists can gather the power to rule the country without a coalition.

 

[lcloo]

Last few days's downward curve looks pretty bad. When will it stop?

 

[dBSPL]

There is no buying pressure atm, but if the volume increases during the day, maybe it can try the first resistance around 14. I think the main support below is around 12 right now. I hope it doesn't break the bottom. The volatility needs to end as soon as possible. If this swing turns into a rally, the speculative environment is not gone.

 

[Indos]

The market confident is very important. Until Erdogan let the economic policy being managed by the expert (economist), market confident will be at the lowest bottom currently regarding to Turkish Lira.

Last night, I watched on CNN International, Becky Anderson program, talking about what happened in Turkey with one correspondent staying in Turkey. Erdogan said high interest is against Islam. I want to say that Erdogan needs to understand that in some extreme situation, Islam allows Muslim to consume pig. Same analogy with how Islam forbid killing another human, but in the war to protect Islam and the nation, killing combatant opponent is allowed.

Shariah Law is not static, emergency situation can make Muslim do something that is in opposite of what Shariah Islam stated. We also can learn the story of this from famous story in Quran when prophet Musa met with prophet Kidr. Prophet Kidr made many action that is against Islamic law but what he did is right because of the special situation that become the base of the actions.

 

[dBSPL]

Last night, I watched on CNN International, Becky Anderson program, talking about what happened in Turkey with one correspondent staying in Turkey. Erdogan said high interest is against Islam.

In fact, what he is saying is that high interest rates slow down industrial investments and it is not possible to switch to a production economy with it. Of course, when the news source you receive is CNN, it is easier to develop a discourse based on just a tweezed word.

 

[HalfMoon]

The market confident is very important. Until Erdogan let the economic policy being managed by the expert (economist), market confident will be at the lowest bottom currently regarding to Turkish Lira.

Last night, I watched on CNN International, Becky Anderson program, talking about what happened in Turkey with one correspondent staying in Turkey. Erdogan said high interest is against Islam. I want to say that Erdogan needs to understand that in some extreme situation, Islam allows Muslim to consume pig. Same analogy with how Islam forbid killing another human, but in the war to protect Islam and the nation, killing combatant opponent is allowed.

Shariah Law is not static, emergency situation can make Muslim do something that is in opposite of what Shariah Islam stated. We also can learn the story of this from famous story in Quran when prophet Musa met with prophet Kidr. Prophet Kidr made many action that is against Islamic law but what he did is right because of the special situation that become the base of the actions.

Erdogan is a principled man and he is right when he says that Interest is haram.

 

[Indos]

In fact, what he is saying is that high interest rates slow down industrial investments and it is not possible to switch to a production economy with it. Of course, when the news source you receive is CNN, it is easier to develop a discourse based on just a tweezed word.

Every body knows that high interest rate is not good to real economic sector, but there is monetary reality that you need to deal in order to solve this Lira huge depreciation. As I said, leave the issue to the expert, they have spend much time learning economics and with many case studies happened around the world and in different period.

Erdogan is a principled man and he is right when he says that Interest is haram.

You are Hindu pretending to be Muslim and anti India

 

[dBSPL]

At the moment, I recommend you to be careful while opening a position in TRY-USD parity.

 

[Viet]

Turkish People is not so rich because of very high interest rates
blood sucker international interest lobby steal money from Turkish People


every year around 50% of total budget expenditures gone to international interest lobby

since 1960 , pathetic Leaders paid trillion dollar to blood sucker international lobby
Erdogan also paid $195 billion to international interest lobby in London


ERDOGAN lowered interest rates from 24% to 4,9% between 2003 and 2013 ..
and for the first time, the ratio of interest expenditures to budget expenditures fell below 10%

Erdogan saved our $330 billion from blood sucker international interest lobby between 2003 and 2013



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shame on all pathetic Leaders and Parties also traitor TUSIAD

Turkey is the 10th country with the highest policy rate in the world; in the first place in Europe

Zimbabwe (60)
Venezuela (56.86)
Argentina (38)
Yemen (27)
Angola (20)
Liberia (20)
Sudan (18.3)
Iran (18)
Haiti (17)
South Sudan (15)
Turkey (15)


lets compare Germany ( 0.05% interest rate ) with Turkiye ( 14.50% interest rate )

if I deposit 1 million euro in a German Bank ..., then I will earn 500 euro per month

if I deposit 1 million euro in a Turkish Bank ... ( 1 million euro = 15,7 million Turkish Lira )
then I will earn 189.604 Turkish Lira ( 12.076 euro ) per month


no need to work in Germany , I can earn money from interest rates in Turkey

Now if you have money in the banks in Germany you must pay a fee. Negative returns. Your president drives Turkey into bankruptcy and poverty.

 

[dBSPL]

While this rally was taking place in the economy today, Turkey opened the world's largest underground natural gas storage facility in the background. The current capacity is 5 billion cubic meters. Salts at a depth of 1400 m below the ground were dissolved with fresh water, creating 40 caves called 'caverns'. With the full commissioning of the system, it will meet half of Turkey's gas storage capacity within 2 years. Approximately 60 percent of the electrical energy used in storage was met from solar energy. There is also a 1 mWe solar energy facility established within the scope of the project. Turkey is undoubtedly preparing for something, but time will tell whether it will succeed.

Every body knows that high interest rate is not good to real economic sector, but there is monetary reality that you need to deal in order to solve this Lira huge depreciation. As I said, leave the issue to the expert, they have spend much time learning economics and with many case studies happened around the world and in different period.

The economy team has yet to reveal the real surprise that will give life to the Turkish economy they are working on… Patience!..

Also:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473044701695594500

 

[Viet]

The market confident is very important. Until Erdogan let the economic policy being managed by the expert (economist), market confident will be at the lowest bottom currently regarding to Turkish Lira.

Last night, I watched on CNN International, Becky Anderson program, talking about what happened in Turkey with one correspondent staying in Turkey. Erdogan said high interest is against Islam. I want to say that Erdogan needs to understand that in some extreme situation, Islam allows Muslim to consume pig. Same analogy with how Islam forbid killing another human, but in the war to protect Islam and the nation, killing combatant opponent is allowed.

Shariah Law is not static, emergency situation can make Muslim do something that is in opposite of what Shariah Islam stated. We also can learn the story of this from famous story in Quran when prophet Musa met with prophet Kidr. Prophet Kidr made many action that is against Islamic law but what he did is right because of the special situation that become the base of the actions.

Turkey’s fate is at the hand of an economic dick head. The inflation rate is high because Turkey relies on imports that must be paid in dollars. Nobody accepts worthless lira. Food prices are rising because Erdogan makes farmlands into building ghettos. You can’t plant tomatoes in bungalows.
Today I read in the press he cites religion is guidance for his politics.
I have classmates, coworkers from Turkey. They are nice and honest people. Too bad.