A very good analysis
That's exactly the reason why Russians support Armenia. It's mostly because of putting pressure on us, to avoid us expand such projects, tons of similar reasons. Iran also solely support Armenia, because it is crystal clear for them that strengthening Azerbaijan, means separation of South Azerbaijan, and in contrast to Kurdistan or .... if shit hits the fan in south Azerbaijan, Iran cannot do much to avoid her to separate. Also, Separation of South Azerbaijan for Iran means losing 25% of the population who run most businesses, have most engineers, most elites, ... of Iran. Literally means like a person loses his head.
That's the reason they want to annoy us by playing Karabagh card, not make us fully hostile, but have leverage over us. since, by making us fully hostile, then we would go for building required pipelines as big as possible, and as soon as possible, to collect all gas even from neighboring Central Asia, and also making us help Chechens and ... which their region is literally need a small activation energy to be exploded and revolted again.
Finally, they are playing a losing game, and they know it. They would finally screw Armenia over. I am a bit more pessimistic, and think it would happen in the next 10-20 years.