TRUE? Indonesia to import 2,500 ships from China !

[nufix]

Hey guys, what's the trade scenario between India and Indonesia ?

The trade scenario between Indonesia and India is mainly about the double of earlier expectation of total trade between both countries in 2015. Earlier, the target was to reach USD 25 billions, but after seeing the increasing of Indonesia and India bilateral economic activities in the first quarter of 2012, both countries agreed set the new target for 2015, the new target is USD 45 billion with additional scenario where India becomes Indonesia's Palm Oil largest importer.

 

[1ndy]

Wouldn't be a big deal for China to build average 1.4 ship per day.

 

[nufix]

Wouldn't be a big deal for China to build average 1.4 ship per day.

In Indonesia, a big shipyard able to complete 5 short cargo ships (not bulk carrier or heavy oil tanker) within a month of full working. Let's assume that Chinese shipyards have similar capability, 5 ships a month. Average 1.4 ship per day means 41.7 ships per month, China needs 9 shipyards to meet that number, and China has more than 60 shipyards. That makes the average 41.7 ships per month seemingly possible because I believe that this project will not be handled with only one shipyard.

 

[shuttler]

The map of Indonesia. There are thousands of smaller islands not showing on the map.

Apart from the many ships that China is going to make for Indonesia, Indonesia can consider connecting islands with larger inhabitants through quake-resistant bridges

 

[shuttler]

Just imagine the wide area of scattering islands in Indonesia and its government's determination to improve the logistics will give the country a century of sustainable growth.

But to find the money to fuel the economic and infrastructural expansion, the Indonesian can consider adopting the concept of the Dubai project:

Indonesia holds the advantage because itss islands are real while in Dubai the islands are man-made and losing grounds to the sea

Disadvantage is the quake zone!

 

[nufix]

The map of Indonesia. There are thousands of smaller islands not showing on the map.

Apart from the many ships that China is going to make for Indonesia, Indonesia can consider connecting islands with larger inhabitants through quake-resistant bridges

We have been trying to build super bridges to connect those major Islands, from 3 proposed bridges, only one that had been granted a green light and built, it is a bridge to connect Madura Island and Java Island where the bridge of Sunda strait is still being evaluated and the Bridge of Malacca is rejected.

The cause of the problem is mainly due to Indonesia's location on geographical map. Two of five Indonesia's major Islands, Sumatera and Java are located right on the pacific ring of fire where the historical Mt. Krakatoa is also located there.

Sunda strait bridge is nearly impossible to be built because the risk of collapse during a big earthquake hit is high, technically, Indonesia and Japan suffer almost the same fate about standing right above the moving grounds. There's no quake resistant big infrastructure that may hold the devastating damage of the typical ring of fire's earthquake. City of Kobe in Japan was first designed to be quake resistant and see what happened to Kobe after an earthquake hit Kobe in 1995.

Islands which are located in Eastern part of Indonesia mainly separated by deep and wider seas (Compared to western part of Indonesia which are separated by straits and relatively shallow waters) that results on impossibility of building such bridges.

To make it simple:

Islands in Western Part of Indonesia: Shallow and narrow waters but full of possibility of being hit by big earthquake due to its position towards pacific ring of fire.

Islands in Eastern Part of Indonesia: Less volcanoes and mainly not located right on the spots where the ring of fire is located but the waters are Deep and Wide.

You see, our country's archipelago makes the establishment of key massive logistic infrastructures such as super long bridges nearly impossible to be built. Therefore, the most possible way is to acquire huge number of ships to transport logistic from one Island to another.

 

[shuttler]

Wouldn't be a big deal for China to build average 1.4 ship per day.

it will take at least a day to have the paint work dried on top of other orders that the Chinese shipyards are undertaking

They will be stretching their necks hard to stay above water.

The only way the shipyards can get the jobs done well in this tight schedule is through parallel running, outsourcing and importing some prefabs and parts which exceed China's production capacity from overseas and assemble them here in China

 

[AUz]

Why doesn't Indonesia invest in its own ship-building industry? It will help in future..

Anyways, best of luck.

 

[shuttler]

Why doesn't Indonesia invest in its own ship-building industry? It will help in future..

Anyways, best of luck.

I guess it is about the same theory as finding new fields to plant the additional tons of rice for yourself or buying it in supermarkets. I am sure Indonesia will get there

 

[nufix]

Why doesn't Indonesia invest in its own ship-building industry? It will help in future..

Anyways, best of luck.

We do, the main reason of why we threw the project out of Indonesia is because most commercial shipyards in Indonesia are already filled with another projects from private shipping companies due to Indonesia's economic boom. The government, via chamber of commercial, needs a numerous ships immediately to meet the increasing demand of logistic transport which was unexpected by the government earlier. If we build more shipyards first, there will be no time left for the CoC to implement the solution (adding numerous ships immediately) and will likely to cause the increasing of commodity prices affected by logistic cost.

Meanwhile, Our shipyards are expected to grow more than 20% this year due to the increasing demand of sea going vessels triggered by the general industrialization program imposed by the government in 2009.

 

[tranquilium]

it will take at least a day to have the paint work dried on top of other orders that the Chinese shipyards are undertaking
They will be stretching their necks hard to stay above water.
The only way the shipyards can get the jobs done well in this tight schedule is through parallel running, outsourcing and importing some prefabs and parts which exceed China's production capacity from overseas and assemble them here in China

Why would China need help overseas to meet the Indonesia order? At 2011, China has about 41% of the shipbuilding capacity of the ENTIRE WORLD and the Chinese ship sales is projected to reach 189 Billion USD by 2015 using the current growth rate. A 5 billion dollar order is not enough to fill the order for a month, let alone over a 5 year period.

Why doesn't Indonesia invest in its own ship-building industry? It will help in future..

Anyways, best of luck.

Shipbuilding is not an isolated business. In order to have a functional ship building industry, you need steel plants to make steel, power stations to generate power, manufacturing factories make parts from heavy machines and engines to lighter products like boards, rails, electronics, etc, universities and colleges to train skilled workers and engineers. And all these must be done at a competitive price so it can beat the foreign competition. It is possible to expand one of these elements at a time, but to expand them together will take quite a bit time and effort.
There is a reason in the modern a few major countries tends to dominate the market. Forming a complete industrial base is very time and capital consuming.

 

[shuttler]

Why would China need help overseas to meet the Indonesia order? At 2011, China has about 41% of the shipbuilding capacity of the ENTIRE WORLD and the Chinese ship sales is projected to reach 189 Billion USD by 2015 using the current growth rate. A 5 billion dollar order is not enough to fill the order for a month, let alone over a 5 year period.

Good point. I dont know about the status of present orders or how good are they filled up? I have made a caveat to my statement: if that some indonesian orders exceed our capacity.

also, the no of 2,500 is huge. How many dry docks can we spare?

We are talking about one 300K ton tanker which occupies one dry dock vs the equivalent of 60*5K ton indonesian vessels which occupy 60 dry docks in one go!

or：

if there are 90 or equivalent dry docks then the rate of delivery would be relaxed somewhat to churning out 90 ships in 2 months so on and so forth!