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Trophy thread: War with Pakistan may put a spanner in India’s development

This content had won me a trophy. I don’t know why it was deleted.

Just when India was on the verge of integrating and assimilating the tribal majority into the mainstream, here comes the prospect of war with Pakistan. Majority of Indian populace consists of backward tribals who have been historically segregated and alienated from the entity of India and the erstwhile states and provinces. The assimilation process requires stability and economic growth for long period of time. I have a feeling the next war with Pakistan would be unlike the earlier ones. Hitherto all post-1947 wars and insurgencies were low cost affairs and didn’t affect civilian lives because Pakistan hadn’t really applied itself.

This time it looks to be different. If at all India wins, it would probably be a Pyrrhic victory. In any case war can disrupt the tribal integration. Indian public has short memory. After the war, it would be forgotten how tribals created the Naxal menace and the segregation would continue. This pattern has surely happened before. It explains why after so many millennia, tribals live in a parallel world of their own.
Independence Day for Kashmir

Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar | Aug 17, 2008, 03.38 AM IST

On August 15, India celebrated independence from the British Raj. But Kashmiris staged a bandh demanding independence from India. A day symbolising the end of colonialism in India became a day symbolising Indian colonialism in the Valley.

As a liberal, i dislike ruling people against their will. True, nation-building is a difficult and complex exercise, and initial resistance can give way to the integration of regional aspirations into a larger national identity — the end of Tamil secessionism was a classical example of this.

I was once hopeful of Kashmir's integration, but after six decades of effort, Kashmiri alienation looks greater than ever. India seeks to integrate with Kashmir, not rule it colonially. Yet, the parallels between British rule in India and Indian rule in Kashmir have become too close for my comfort.

Many Indians say that Kashmir legally became an integral part of India when the maharaja of the state signed the instrument of accession. Alas, such legalisms become irrelevant when ground realities change. Indian kings and princes, including the Mughals, acceded to the British Raj. The documents they signed became irrelevant when Indians launched an independence movement.

The British insisted for a long time that India was an integral part of their Empire, the jewel in its crown, and would never be given up. Imperialist Blimps remained in denial for decades. I fear we are in similar denial on Kashmir.

The politically correct story of the maharaja's accession ignores a devastating parallel event. Just as Kashmir had a Hindu maharaja ruling over a Muslim majority, Junagadh had a Muslim nawab ruling over a Hindu majority. The Hindu maharaja acceded to India, and the Muslim nawab to Pakistan.

But while India claimed that the Kashmiri accession to India was sacred, it did not accept Junagadh's accession to Pakistan. India sent troops into Junagadh, just as Pakistan sent troops into Kashmir. The difference was that Pakistan lacked the military means to intervene in Junagadh, while India was able to send troops into Srinagar. The Junagadh nawab fled to Pakistan, whereas the Kashmir maharaja sat tight. India's double standard on Junagadh and Kashmir was breathtaking.

Do you think the people of Junagadh would have integrated with Pakistan after six decades of genuine Pakistani effort? No? Then can you really be confident that Kashmiris will stop demanding azaadi and integrate with India?

The British came to India uninvited. By contrast, Sheikh Abdullah, the most popular politician in Kashmir, supported accession to India subject to ratification by a plebiscite. But his heart lay in independence for Kashmir, and he soon began manoeuvering towards that end. He was jailed by Nehru, who then declared Kashmir's accession was final and no longer required ratification by a plebiscite. The fact that Kashmir had a Muslim majority was held to be irrelevant, since India was a secular country empowering citizens through democracy.

Alas, democracy in Kashmir has been a farce for most of six decades. The rot began with Sheikh Abdullah in 1951: he rejected the nomination papers of almost all opponents, and so won 73 of the 75 seats unopposed! Nehru was complicit in this sabotage of democracy.

Subsequent state elections were also rigged in favour of leaders nominated by New Delhi. Only in 1977 was the first fair election held, and was won by the Sheikh. But he died after a few years, and rigging returned in the 1988 election. That sparked the separatist uprising which continues to gather strength today.

Many Indians point to long episodes of peace in the Valley and say the separatists are just a noisy minority. But the Raj also had long quiet periods between Gandhian agitations, which involved just a few lakhs of India's 500 million people. One lakh people joined the Quit India movement of 1942, but 25 lakh others joined the British Indian army to fight for the Empire's glory.

Blimps cited this as evidence that most Indians simply wanted jobs and a decent life. The Raj built the biggest railway and canal networks in the world. It said most Indians were satisfied with economic development, and that independence was demanded by a noisy minority. This is uncomfortably similar to the official Indian response to the Kashmiri demand for azaadi.

Let me not exaggerate. Indian rule in Kashmir is not classical colonialism. India has pumped vast sums into Kashmir, not extracted revenue as the Raj did. Kashmir was among the poorest states during the Raj, but now has the lowest poverty rate in India. It enjoys wide civil rights that the Raj never gave. Some elections — 1977, 1983 and 2002 — were perfectly fair.

India has sought integration with Kashmir, not colonial rule. But Kashmiris nevertheless demand azaadi. And ruling over those who resent it so strongly for so long is quasi-colonialism, regardless of our intentions.

We promised Kashmiris a plebiscite six decades ago. Let us hold one now, and give them three choices: independence, union with Pakistan, and union with India. Almost certainly the Valley will opt for independence. Jammu will opt to stay with India, and probably Ladakh too. Let Kashmiris decide the outcome, not the politicians and armies of India and Pakistan.

Independence Day for Kashmir - The Times of India
 
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This content had won me a trophy. I don’t know why it was deleted.

Just when India was on the verge of integrating and assimilating the tribal majority into the mainstream, here comes the prospect of war with Pakistan. Majority of Indian populace consists of backward tribals who have been historically segregated and alienated from the entity of India and the erstwhile states and provinces. The assimilation process requires stability and economic growth for long period of time. I have a feeling the next war with Pakistan would be unlike the earlier ones. Hitherto all post-1947 wars and insurgencies were low cost affairs and didn’t affect civilian lives because Pakistan hadn’t really applied itself.

This time it looks to be different. If at all India wins, it would probably be a Pyrrhic victory. In any case war can disrupt the tribal integration. Indian public has short memory. After the war, it would be forgotten how tribals created the Naxal menace and the segregation would continue. This pattern has surely happened before. It explains why after so many millennia, tribals live in a parallel world of their own.
@jbgt90
 
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Pakistan has second strike capability against India

THE NEWSPAPER'S STAFF REPORTER — UPDATED ABOUT 13 HOURS AGO

ISLAMABAD: Former defence secretary retired Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi has claimed that Pakistan possesses second strike capability against India.

He was speaking at a seminar at Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), an Islamabad-based think-tank that works on strategic issues.

The issue of second strike capability came up in the context of the conventional superiority enjoyed by India and the options for Pakistan.

The second strike provides a military the capability to hit back at an enemy in a situation where its land-based nuclear arsenal had been neutralized.

The former defence secretary said that despite the growing conventional imbalance, Pakistan had certain strengths including the nuclear parity with India and credible nuclear deterrence.

The nuclear deterrence, he said, had been augmented by the second strike capability, efficient delivery systems and effective command and control system.

He did not explain any specifics about the second strike capability, which could be sea, air or land based.

It is still unclear if Pakistan was any closer to the submarine based ‘assured second strike capability’ for stable deterrence, particularly at time when India has already made the moves towards it.

Discussing Pakistan’s second strike capability, President SVI Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema said that Pakistan had improved its second strike capability.

Pakistan’s second strike capability, Dr Cheema said, has been augmented by deployment of Hatf-VII/Baber nuclear capable cruise missile that is launchable from aircrafts and conventional submarines. It is further fortified by the deployment of Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad air launched cruise missile, he added.

Technically speaking, he maintained, the best mode of second strike capability is submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which neither India nor Pakistan have deployed as yet.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2015

Pakistan has second strike capability against India - Pakistan - DAWN.COM
 
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