TPP failure would cost the US trade dominance

[randomradio]

And people really believe that Trump can initiate an economic war with China ? or impose tariff of 45% that is what he said during election campaign . Question is how the then US will bear counter measures :

1) In areas of education and tourism where Chinese students and travelers add $28 billion dollars surplus to the American industry ....?..

Chinese immigrants will not stop. Movement of high skilled labour into the US will only increase.

You can only stop your tourists. But that's peanuts.

2) Tesla Motors, Tommy Hilfiger , Oracle, GE , MS will afford to loose 1.4 billion consumer market ?

The Americans have a lot of unique products that cannot be stopped by China.

Will you stop using Windows or Mac?

3) Accusing China of Currency war by keeping it low. How weak that argument is, what if China starts sell its 1.2 trillion dollar investment in American bonds ? this is what you called a currency war.

You are doing it right now.

4) More than 500 Billion dollar stock held by Chinese investors ...What if they start to dis-invest?
China is economic reality like it or not US can't play with them ..Election is over trump has to face reality now.

Why will they do that? If the US economy double growth, then it makes sense to stay invested.

No rich person is going to make nationalist decisions. They will only make pragmatic decisions.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

When it comes to manufacturing, India is a small player, with a protected economy. No point bringing India in.

But it is highly likely that the US will go into protectionist mode because he's promised to deliver jobs and reduce the huge deficit with China. China is no different in that context. They put too many non-tariff hurdles on their importers, so Trump will use any number of excuses to restrict imports.

Also, China doesn't export anything that other countries don't. The Chinese advantage is economies of scale. It's not like the Indian outsourcing industry, where there is no alternative. There are Toyota and Honda factories in the US as well. And if these companies are paying only 15% tax, then it will make more sense for them to move there. So a combination of lower income tax and higher import duties will obviously favour an increase in jobs and decrease in imports. He wants to lower personal income tax as well, so that will lead to an increase in consumption, and hence increased inflation.

And the Americans have the kind of foundation necessary to fuel all of this with increased immigration.

He is nowhere near Modi's experience or charisma, but he has far more 'weapons' in his disposal as the leader of a superpower.

U asked not to bring India in, yet your following paragraphs below it were full of self-praise and the stressing of tbe importance of india. You hastily brush off the topic of manufacturing, cos deep down inside- you know thats exactly where India is severely imcompetant in. Protected economy? nice excuses btw

Despite the overwhelming harshness of reality in regardless to your 'India is almighty and India has everything' claims- even my grandma was able to conclude that all your posts always carry the same 'India is great and important!'(ok relax-we know) undertone.

Ya, Modi(and any other Indian leaders) is the only charismatic leader in the world- nobody else in the world can match him.

Inferior low IQ folks are unable see the gaps in their own arguement. Even my grandfather can also read you like an open comicbook.

Haha.

 

[Beast]

The key question is whether Americans are prepared to pay higher prices for indigenous manufactured goods. If they are then manufacturing will come back into the US. The other alternative is to reduce manufacturing cost in the US to match low costs from Asia; but that would mean less wages, lesser benefits etc. This is not a practical solution.

The other way is to super charge the financial war - such as currency wars, trade tariffs etc. Chinese are becoming as good at these as us; we do have a significant currency advantage but Chinese have a govt effectiveness/speed advantage due to the dictatorial set up. Assuming these cancel out each other, I'd say neither has a major up on the other.

Which means Trump and Xi should and probably treat each other as worthy co-opetitors, with respect. From what we have seen, this is not easy for Trump!

FInally some sane people say something unlike the few delusion indians.

Walmart and Amazon are famous on depending a living on Chinese made goods. Chinese made goods is a reason for keeping American inflation low. There was this scheme called Shinola who selling point is made in USA. Most who bought this Shinola product are mainly patriot American. They sold a few variety of watches which cost USD300-500 which is made of quartz and not even automatic which build and quality is no different from USD40 -80 made in China Casio watches. They are review who claimed see no justification of paying extra for no increase in quality.

 

[nang2]

Such a speculation is silly. Really silly.

 

[rott]

View attachment 350778

The big international winner from Donald Trump’s victory in the US election is likely to be Chinese President Xi Jinping.

If Mr Trump follows through on his rhetoric, his win will require massive rethinking on Australia’s position in the world, as the US, our core ally, starts to retreat strategically and economically.

While Mr Trump publicly admires Vladimir Putin, it is the Russian leader’s increasingly close ally Mr Xi who stands to gain most.

Hillary Clinton was the architect of the US’s “pivot to Asia”. That strategy now appears dead in the water — under Mr Trump’s campaign positions.

The US-led, 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, in which Australia is a major participant, also looks doomed.

Mrs Clinton opposed the treaty during the campaign but might have been susceptible to another U-turn — which seems inconceivable for Mr Trump.

The plunging sharemarket indices around Asia yesterday underlined the fears of countries, and especially businesses, about their continent’s fate under a Trump presidency.

Exports comprise about 25 per cent of Asia’s gross domestic product, and 20 per cent — the biggest single amount — has been bought by Americans.

Australia would suffer serious damage from any trade war since its three biggest foreign markets — China, Japan and South Korea — would be greatly affected.

Because Chinese-assembled products often emerge from production chains including inputs from its neighbours, any barriers against China would hurt the whole region.

South Koreans are especially anxious about the fate of their free-trade agreement with the US, which Mr Trump condemned as costing 100,000 American jobs.

Filipinos are concerned about the threat to clamp down on foreign workers in the US, since 35 per cent of all Filipinos working overseas are in America, providing valuable remittance incomes.

Mr Trump has vowed to “punish American companies that outsource jobs abroad” — causing particular anxiety in India, which has attracted much of that work.

The way appears to be opening for Mr Xi to emerge — using the rhetoric he honed during his recent chairmanship in Hangzhou of the G20 — as the new leader of the troubled international thrust towards economic globalisation.

View attachment 350776

Mr Trump has said he would withdraw 54,000 US military personnel from Japan and a further 28,500 from South Korea unless those countries contributed more to their costs.

Japan pays about $5.25 billion a year towards the cost of the US bases, and South Korea about $1.15bn towards the US presence there, the latter about 40 per cent of the total cost.

A US withdrawal would enable China to dominate East Asia in a way no country has done since Japan 75 years ago, and would require a massive shift in Japanese and South Korean strategic thinking.

Mr Trump also said the US would be “better off” if Japan and South Korea had nuclear weapons — matching those of China and North Korea.

“You always have to be prepared to walk … It could be that Japan will have to defend itself against North Korea,” he said.

Admiral Harry Harris, head of the US Pacific Command, would need to battle to keep his position under a Trump presidency, having advocated forcefully for US naval tests to Chinese hegemony over the South China Sea.

Yuichi Hosoya, an international politics professor at Keio University in Japan, told TheWall Street Journal: “By pulling away from the region militarily, the US would lose political influence in the Asia-Pacific, and experience crushing economic losses.

“Trump is trying to do what China has constantly desired for the past five years. China wants the US to pull away from the region as much as possible to create a regional order that maximises China’s profit and security.”

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has already conceded to Beijing on the South China Sea issue, despite Manila having won its case at an international UN Convention on the Law of the Sea arbitration hearing.

His bigger-picture shift towards Beijing’s influence may now be followed by others in the region who have been waiting on the US election result, with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and the military rulers of Thailand foremost among them. Indonesian President Joko Widodo is among those who have sought to maintain strong relations with the US and China but may now be weighing other options.

The anxiety in Asia about the Trump presidency is heightened by uncertainty about his foreign affairs advisers, about whom little is known.

The figure who has emerged as a likely key player is Peter Navarro, 67, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of California who wrote a controversial book, The Coming China Wars, in 2006 and made the 2011 documentary Death by China.

View attachment 350777

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-...g/news-story/b6816fe7b70ce2108b35933b608827d8

@Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @long_ @cirr @Dungeness @Götterdämmerung @Lure @AViet @onebyone @grey boy 2 @terranMarine @Jlaw @rott @Two et al

Why are the Indians celebrating US election results? Lol...
I don't see that in any other country.

 

[Zhu Rong Zheng Yang]

@RoadRunner401

Many thanks for your fantastic post.

The Trump family - originally Drumpf but changed to Trump at some point in the 17th century - came from the south west of Germany. Friedrich Trump, the president-elect’s grandfather, left Germany to avoid military service in 1885 and got on a steamer to New York.

He made his way to Seattle, opening a restaurant with a brothel attached before moving to Canada to cash in on the Klondike gold rush. He would open a bar and again procure prostitutes.

Fred Christ Trump had made his money in real estate, building family homes in the New York borough of Queens, and naval barracks along the east coast of the US.

It was claimed he took kickbacks of cash in envelopes to hand out contracts and in 1954 when Donald was just eight, was investigated by a US senate committee for profiteering from public contracts.

At the age of 21, Fred was arrested for involvement in a riot in Queens in which the Ku Klux Klan had fought fascist supporters loyal to Benito Mussolini. Fred, according to a news report of the day, had been wearing the white robes of the Klan.

Apparently, DNA of being a Lifetime ( Sleaze and Slimy and Low Lifers and
Hustlers and Crooks and Criminals ) are running deep in Trump ancestry.
Let's summarize ... ...

#1.) Trump grandfather, Fred run away from Germany to avoid military service.
Fred grandson, Donald coward Duck improves his grandfather action by Dodging military drafts 5 times.

#2) Trump grandfather, Fred profited from women by selling them as Prostitutes.
Fred grandson, Donald coward Duck improves his grandfather methods by selling
Prostitution in all his Condos and Casino.

#3) Trump grandfather, Fred swindled and rip off his business partners to become millionaire.
Fred grandson, Donald coward Duck improves his grandfather successes by swindling and ripping off his business partners, and then declaring Bankruptcies 5 times on his way to become a billionaire.

#4) Trump grandfather, Fred swindled and rip off americese government by not paying taxes.
Fred grandson, Donald coward Duck improves his grandfather scheme by Declaring 900 billion business loss in his tax return -- where he has not paid any taxes for 18 years and running.

#5) Trump grandfather, Fred is a whitey Red Neck KKK member.
Fred grandson, Donald coward Duck improves his grandfather membership by becoming
americese KKK president based upon Racist and Bigotry campaign against minorities.

===

Trump grandfather, Fred in hell must be smiling ear to ear enjoying his grandson,
Donald coward Duck lifetime successes as a Big Time ( Sleaze and Slimy and Low Lifers and
Hustlers and Crooks and Criminals ).

Future is extremely blighted for all minorities in united states of americese

Oh wait, many delusional ( Indians and Jews ) think -- they are not minorities.
These delusional people -- they think they are dealing with Logical and Non Dim Witted whitey americese majority.
Thus, ( many Indians and many more Jews in usa ) think -- they are safe.

Btw, Trade War from americese is a blessing in disguise for PRC.


#1*) The Chinese Patriotic Hard Liner will have the perfect excuse to remove all weak knees
Chinese ( who are still hoping to be friend with america ) from the position of power.
All Chinese will drop this idea of becoming ( Responsible Stake Holder to protect americese Hegemony )

#2*) Flaming Racial Unrest all across usa is very good for China.
Because all those wealthy Chinese who have assets in usa will regret their idiotic decision.
And, I hope all those wealthy Chinese wake up and realize their colossal mistakes
and becoming much more patriotic.
All wealthy Chinese will probably focus and pay much more attention and help build up 1B1R much more quickly.

#3) Flaming Racial Unrest all across usa is very good for China.
Because all those Chinese scientists will regret their idiotic decision in staying in usa.
And, I hope there will be Huge Exodus of Chinese scientists moving back to PRC.

 

[randomradio]

U asked not to bring India in, yet your following paragraphs below it were full of self-praise and the stressing of tbe importance of india. You hastily brush off the topic of manufacturing, cos deep down inside- you know thats exactly where India is severely imcompetant in. Protected economy? nice excuses btw

Yeah, this confirms your ability to read and understand is below average.

When I said there's no point bringing India in, that was a black mark on India. That India is incapable of competing. Dunno how that's self-praise, please explain.

When I said the service industry won't be affected, it is the truth. Because service industries are harder to replicate simply because it's based on skilled and highly skilled human capital. The very fact that the US needs to import Indian human capital speaks for itself. That's the reason why Indians are now climbing into the boards of the largest US companies even though there are so many competing cream-of-the-crop Chinese immigrants in the US. You can build a factory within a year, but it takes 20-30 years to build up human capital, that matches the human lifespan. All of this is mere logic and common sense.

Why are the Indians celebrating US election results? Lol...
I don't see that in any other country.

National Security.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Yay

Yeah, this confirms your ability to read and understand is below average.

When I said there's no point bringing India in, that was a black mark on India. That India is incapable of competing. Dunno how that's self-praise, please explain.

When I said the service industry won't be affected, it is the truth. Because service industries are harder to replicate simply because it's based on skilled and highly skilled human capital. The very fact that the US needs to import Indian human capital speaks for itself. That's the reason why Indians are now climbing into the boards of the largest US companies even though there are so many competing cream-of-the-crop Chinese immigrants in the US. You can build a factory within a year, but it takes 20-30 years to build up human capital, that matches the human lifespan. All of this is mere logic and common sense.



National Security.

You said US has to rely on Indian oursourcing industry 'because there's no alternative', when there are lots of other countries that provide such services, before continuing on your chinese-bashing tirade with your neverending naysaying.

Your point now is that only India has the human capital and no other countries are as adept as Great India in providing ' high quality' manpower.

It's disgusting how your delusional nationalism has become.

 

[Jlaw]

Then according to your logics, Apple will not step up factory in india because they need such jobs and india's apple market is too tiny (less than 10% of China's apple market).

China has established manufacturing cooperation with many countries outside US.
And China is the biggest market of nearly all tangible goods, from smart phone to cars, from A/C to TBMs.

Building a supply chain (do they know how?) will pose 10 times more threat to india and all these kind of emerging countries with tremendous young labor and very little industrial technology.

He have no clue what he is blabbing about

 

[Jlaw]

According to Forbes, Trump likely to increasing defense spending into 1 trillion hallmark, or around 500 billions. Reagan mk2?

Trump hate islamo . Even indo islamo.

India is the only shining market in the world with the biggest middle class.

Only in India can you find people who can afford freedom 251.

Freedom 251 is Chinese phone

 

[xunzi]

LOL. Welcome Trump. Its going to be a fun ride!

 

[bobsm]

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is dead, Schumer tells labor leaders
By Mike DeBonis, Ed O'Keefe and Ana Swanson November 10 at 4:10 PM


The Senate’s soon-to-be top Democrat told labor leaders Thursday that the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the trade deal at the center of President Obama’s “pivot” to strengthen ties with key Asian allies, will not be ratified by Congress.

That remark from Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who is expected to be the incoming Senate minority leader, came as good news to the AFL-CIO Executive Council, which met Thursday in Washington. Schumer relayed statements that Republican congressional leaders had made to him, according to an aide who confirmed the remarks.

Obama’s signature global trade deal had been on life support for months as both Democrats and Republicans campaigned against unfair trade policies ahead of the Nov. 8 election. And Donald Trump’s triumph in the presidential race cemented its fate.

“There is no way to fix the TPP,” Trump said in a June economic address. “We need bilateral trade deals. We do not need to enter into another massive international agreement that ties us up and binds us down.”

The deal never had much of a following among congressional Democrats to begin with. Only 28 of 188 House Democrats and 13 of 44 Senate Democrats supported granting Obama the authority to negotiate and finalize a deal last year. And Trump’s rise has decimated support for free trade among Republicans. A former U.S. trade representative, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, said he would oppose the TPP as he campaigned for reelection this year.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Wednesday there was no chance that the deal would pass during Obama’s final months in office. And he said it’s up to Trump whether any trade deal would move forward after that.

“I think the president-elect made it pretty clear he was not in favor of the current agreement,” McConnell said. “But he has the latitude because [congressional negotiating authority] is in place through the next administration to negotiate better deals, as I think he would put it, if he chooses to.”

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), who has supported past trade deals, has said that “the votes aren’t there” in the House to pass the TPP in its current version and that he has no plans to bring it to a vote in the House.

The news of the trade pact’s likely demise prompted disappointed reactions from some industry coalitions, which had hoped to access freer markets and a more level playing field with competitors overseas.

Among them were groups representing America’s farmers and ranchers. The TPP had promised to slash tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods in large markets such as Japan and Vietnam, as well as eliminate agricultural subsidies that gave competitors in the trade bloc an edge.

“We would have liked to get it done before the end of the year. The longer we delay, the more likely we lose market share in the Asia-Pacific since other countries are negotiating their own trade deals with nations in the region,” David Warner, the director of communications at the National Pork Producers Council, said in emailed comments. Warner said the TPP would exponentially increase pork exports, translating into more American jobs. “We certainly hope the TPP is not dead.”

Retailers had also largely thrown their support behind TPP, as it would have reduced tariffs on many goods that brands source from overseas. President Obama had even used Nike’s Oregon headquarters as backdrop for a speech defending his trade policy.

“On balance, [TPP] was viewed by our industry as a win for retailers and our consumers,” said David French, the National Retail Federation’s senior vice president of government relations, in an interview conducted Thursday prior to the news of Schumer’s statements.

French said he believes that the reduction in tariffs would have been passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices. Tariffs on footwear can be as high as 67.5 percent, according to the NRF, while apparel tariffs can be up to 32 percent.

In September, a coalition of retailers — including Walmart, JCPenney, Gap, Michael Kors and Dick’s Sporting Goods — sent letters to each member of Congress to urge them to support the TPP. The letter said the agreement would remove $2.8 million in duties on U.S. imports of clothes, shoes and travel items such as backpacks. They called it “once-in-a-generation opportunity to reduce costs and open new markets for U.S. brands and retailers.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...tnership-is-dead-schumer-tells-labor-leaders/

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Donald Trump’s Victory Is Some of the Best Foreign News China Could Have Hoped For


Hannah Beech / Shanghai November 10, 2016

As the world digested the reality of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, the glee among China’s political establishment was hard to contain. “China is feeling a little bit delighted,” says Shen Dingli, deputy dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

The giddiness comes in various forms. First, what better advertisement for the stable, technocratic authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party than an America so divided that half the electorate failed to recognize how disenfranchised the rest of the nation felt?

“Trump’s election shows the problem of American democracy,” says Yu Tiejun, a professor of international studies at Peking University in Beijing.

The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party-linked tabloid, opined that the U.S. president-elect “was known for being a blowhard and an egomaniac. But if such a person can be president, there is something wrong with the existing political order.”

“There is a lot of Chinese schadenfreude about the lowly nature of the debate in the U.S. election campaign,” says Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing. “It’s a total gift to Chinese propaganda.”

Second, Trump has shown little interest in holding China accountable for its human-rights record, even as President Xi Jinping has tightened control on free-thinkers who speak out against the ruling Chinese Communist Party. During the campaign, Trump even lauded the steeliness of the Chinese leadership for ordering the 1989 massacre of Tiananmen democracy protesters.

“Trump doesn’t care about whether China is an authoritarian state,” says Qiao Mu, media-studies professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, who is no longer allowed to teach because of his outspokenness on political issues.

Compare that to Hillary Clinton, whose public objections to the Chinese Communist Party go back decades, from her critical speech at the 1995 U.N. Women’s Conference in Beijing to her tenure as U.S. Secretary of State.

“Trump is not going to be as harsh on human rights as Hillary Clinton would have been,” says Zhang Ming, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies at Renmin University in Beijing.

Third, while Barack Obama talked about pivoting toward Asia—a foreign-policy maneuver that the Chinese saw as little more than containment—Trump campaigned on isolationism. He has scorned the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the 12-nation trading bloc that was supposed to add economic ballast to Obama’s Asia pivot. Trump has also threatened to tear up defense treaties with America’s Asian allies, such as Japan and South Korea.

“The Chinese like that Trump talks about America growing inward, that the U.S. is overreached in the Middle East, that he’s ripping up TPP, that he’s not paying much attention in Asia,” says Haenle. “Trump says we need to pull back. All that sounds great to the Chinese.”

An increasingly assertive Chinese government has turned disputed islets in the South China Sea into de-facto military bases. At the same time, Beijing has unleashed a charm offensive on Asian leaders whose countries are embroiled in territorial disputes in the vast waterway, such as the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte and Malaysia’s Najib Razak. After decades in which the U.S. Navy prided itself on keeping the peace in the Pacific, could China capitalize on American inattention in the region?

“In terms of the South China Sea, Trump’s conservatism and isolationism mean he will intervene less,” says Zhang. “There will be less trouble for the Chinese government.”

But Chinese foreign policy cannot depend solely on expectations of American insularity. With exports flagging and growth slowing, Chinese rulers must attend to the world’s most important bilateral economic relationship. As a candidate, Trump talked tough on China trade. He vowed to name China a currency manipulator. He spoke of a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. While presidential candidates perennially denounce China only to moderate their positions when they take office, Trump rode to power on a wave of protectionist sentiment. The voters who swept Trump to victory think that China has stolen their jobs through unfair competition. That’s sobering news for a country that has profited more from free markets than almost any other economic power.

“Trump’s victory has a direct impact on our trade relationship,” says Shen Minggao, an economist at the Caixin think-tank. “Brexit and Trump’s win show a clear trend of de-globalization and Trump’s election will serve as a huge blow to China’s economy.”

Some Chinese academics aren’t as worried. They regard Trump as a businessmen who has also profited from economic cross-pollination. “Trump is against TPP but he’s not against globalization,” says Fudan University’s Shen. “TPP is 12 countries selected by America, and it expels other countries. That’s not free trade. WTO is globalization, and Trump has never said he’s against the WTO.”

That may be. But Trump has said a lot of different things at a lot of different times. That leads to another worry for China’s leadership. Without electorates to upend local politics, China’s ruling Communists value stability—both at home and abroad. “The Chinese are always worried about uncertainty,” says Haenle. “Even though they like that America is probably going to be pulling back from Asia, they also don’t like surprises. Trump is not predictable.”

In the end, Trump’s victory has not prompted the kind of existential worries in China that it has in other parts of the world. For some countries, the election of an isolationist populist as the American President carries troubling messages for local political development or regional security. China, though, sees itself as the center of the world, just as America still does.

“China is rising,” says deputy dean Shen. “China is quite different from when Barack Obama became president eight years ago. The U.S. has far fewer resources to force China to do something. China should not worry about Trump coercing us.”

—With reporting by Yang Siqi and Zhang Chi/Beijing




Damn, this article goes against the teachings of our Chinese-bashing naysayer Randomradio who preaches all day 'India is great,China is trash' .

 

[TaiShang]

“China is rising,” says deputy dean Shen. “China is quite different from when Barack Obama became president eight years ago. The U.S. has far fewer resources to force China to do something. China should not worry about Trump coercing us.”

That's the point.

The entire vantage point of what 'would happen/could happen' talk is wrong because China is the same China with Trump or Clinton. It is not a small or medium power to be swayed off just because a nasty and totally corrupt election period produces very sub par leadership in the US.

What I would be more worrying is if China one day decides to economically sanction the US. To start with, the US trade penetration is weaker than that of China.

Of course, neither China nor US can compete India in service quality. Especially banking call centers. My US professor used to curse each time he called Wells Fargo to do some phone-banking.

It might as well be that each time a new call center opens in the US, both in India and the US, the average intelligence declines.

 

[TaiShang]

I did try their incredible service whilst I was using Vodaphone in Perth and changed my Singapore Airline service from Perth. I was make-in-indialy impressed!

Services, my friend, services. Nothing would be more competitive than an Indian service company. As long as India holds that advantage to the detriment of China and the US, we are doomed even before we become great.

Indian governments were so smart in investing on the unparalleled competitiveness of Indian service sector.

I think we have got to be content with these: