Top 10 Richest Countries in 2050 according to Citibank

[Audio]

Just read your post. Do I downplay US armory ? I am big fan of US armory. Leave aside the numbers, I love its technological advancement.

Having said that, I think Euro-Crisis has affected Europe a lot, they are not down but they are not progressing wither at relative rate. They can't afford war with country of size of China.

US has its economical and social problem too. I think you know more than me.

I am talking about entire scenario, can US afford to go against China in its current economic condition, it will be a Suicide. Militarily, don't say you won't have significant loss.

Look from all angles buddy. Vietnam is not even century old war. Approach to this notion from all the angles. Also count in Russia factor too.

We are not playing Poker, if we you have bigger hand (better technology and huge in number ), you will win. Even if you are playing it, Bluffing (Deception, lack of intelligence about China's abilities) still can make you fold.

What makes you think China can afford a war?

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

How do you know he is thinking differently? did he tell you

No, but based on what is happening now...

 

[chauism]

and did the debate conclude that China could take large parts of India. I dont think so. you must have lost the arguments there also. I dont need to look where the sun rises from if ccp says it rises from west. Similarly to this it is equally clear that ccp could never capture any Indian lands after 62 and in 62 also they could only enter and not hold.

You would never guess what my point was in those argument, and my discussions with those indian members were never arguments to start with. Go ask some Indian members before you embarass yourself here.

It's getting way off topic here people. Discussions about a possible nuclear war and the 62 war between China and India just don't fit in this thread. Look 38 years from now is still far in the future, too many factors to make predictions. Who would have guessed about the American financial crisis involving Lehman and Madoff? Who would have thought the Euro zone is now having a major crisis?

Korean and timetravel seem to have a pretty good grip at how the future will pan put, so you'd better ask them who and why.

 

[timetravel]

You would never guess what my point was in those argument, and my discussions with those indian members were never arguments. Go ask some Indian members before you embarass yourself here.

you continue to loose in debate and get irritated easily. don't expect any more replies to your stupid rants if you are unable to counter even one of my earlier posts!

 

[Korean]

1) I did not know Hong Kong and Taiwan will be countries in 2050

While Hong Kong's fate is uncertain as Beijing may decide to directly absorb Hong Kong in 2047, you can be sure Taiwan will be around in 2050. In order for Taiwan to not exist, the communists must be thrown out and China becomes a multi-party democracy, which isn't going to happen.

2) Assuming that South Korea does not unite with North Korea before 2050 and get saddled with the costs of providing for it.

The unification cost is only $250 billion(Korean unification model is "seal and develop", not the German "bring down all walls".) and North Korea has at least $1 trillion worth of underground resources, not counting possible oil wells in the Yellow Sea(Chinese side has oil, so it is widely assumed that North Korean side too has oil wells.)

3) Japan is not on the list?

Japan's GDP per capital is expected to be around $60K in 2050, as 40% of populations would be elderly and Japan would be an economy where 1.5 active workers support 1 retiree on pension.

This is why China is expected to be overtaken by India soon, as China too faces a Japan-like aging society in less than 20 years and the growth sputters accordingly. All the economists project India to be the biggest economy(so the 21st century is technically India's Century, not China's) because the average age of India would be low, which helps to sustain the economic growth.

 

[KRAIT]

What makes you think China can afford a war?

I never said that. They can't either. But they won't let go these rich natural resources near its mainland. There will be intense pre-war condition and then diplomatic solution with China getting the better deal.

I have said it again and again, China won't go to war and if it do, US will succeed in its plan. I am keenly to see the outcome of this tussle in SCS.

 

[Meengla]

With the exception of US , Arab and Canada all the countries are too small .
However good to see korea occupy the 4th spot

May be Singapore and Hong Kong could be called 'City States' but the rest are sizable countries in area and population combined.

And, yes, these multi-decade predictions are quite susceptible to global and local events. Fortunes of nations can change fast. As an example, before 2009, Sri Lankan govt. was actively negotiating with LTTE though the Norwegians, that country was wracked with violence and despair was widespread. Look at SL now. In 2002, the Karachi Stock Exchange was the best performing in the region, if not the world, and Pakistanis were bouyant till early 2007. And look at Pakistan now...

So how will the world look like in, say, 2050? I'd say the population bombs/dividends are going to make the biggest difference in the fates of nations. Human beings--from almost all backgrounds/countries/regions--will harness resources to the fullest using technology and those with more people will exploit more. This, I say, because I think human beings are all essentially equal in inherent potentials.Okay, this all is just a 'hunch', not even a 'hypothesis' and is a personal prediction of how the world will look in 2050. And if you are reading this in 2050--say you saw this first in PDF

 

[chauism]

you continue to loose in debate and get irritated easily. don't expect any more replies to you if you are unable to counter even one of my earlier posts!

The reason i don't argue with you properly is because your post is too idiotic and stupid to start with that even some Indian member don't agree with you.

 

[timetravel]

While Hong Kong's fate is uncertain as Beijing may decide to directly absorb Hong Kong in 2047, you can be sure Taiwan will be around in 2050. In order for Taiwan to not exist, the communists must be thrown out and China becomes a multi-party democracy, which isn't going to happen.


The unification cost is only $250 billion(Korean unification model is "seal and develop", not the German "bring down all walls".) and North Korea has at least $1 trillion worth of underground resources, not counting possible oil wells in the Yellow Sea(Chinese side has oil, so it is widely assumed that North Korean side too has oil wells.)


Japan's GDP per capital is expected to be around $60K in 2050, as 40% of populations would be elderly and Japan would be an economy where 1.5 active workers support 1 retiree on pension.

This is why China is expected to be overtaken by India soon, as China too faces a Japan-like aging society in less than 20 years and the growth sputters accordingly. All the economists project India to be the biggest economy(so the 21st century is technically India's Century, not China's) because the average age of India would be low, which helps to sustain the economic growth.

well put buddy. chauism will find it hard to swallow. It is infact a question which is bound to be asked every few years and this is a nice topic of debate. its not something which can be avoided if some Chinese don't like it.

Though there are several factors into play which could derail the above scenarios, but keeping apart any unknown and sudden events what you said is broadly the right picture if you make a fair attempt to grasp what it would be like in 2050.

 

[chauism]

I never said that. They can't either. But they won't let go these rich natural resources near its mainland. There will be intense pre-war condition and then diplomatic solution with China getting the better deal.

I have said it again and again, China won't go to war and if it do, US will succeed in its plan. I am keenly to see the outcome of this tussle in SCS.

Better deal maybe not, be status quo most likely. Diaoyu Island can never be solved by just China and Japan alone, US needs to be the arbitrator in this dispite as it is the originator of it, but right now it want to prolong this dispute by saying that it does not take any sides in this.

 

[Audio]

I never said that. They can't either. But they won't let go these rich natural resources near its mainland. There will be intense pre-war condition and then diplomatic solution with China getting the better deal.

I have said it again and again, China won't go to war and if it do, US will succeed in its plan. I am keenly to see the outcome of this tussle in SCS.

Do you remember maybe that China declared a no fishing period over that entire area. Well it turns out the no fishing period is actually typhoon season, when there's not so much fishing going on anyway.
So one could say they exerted control over the area but it just happened to coincide with a dangerous natural phenomenon. Sounds like Sun Tzu? Make something appear where there is nothing.
Problem is, Sun Tzu is required reading at all military schools. << this is in regards to your poker, bluffing remark from a previous post

If they are all smart they should start a joint venture oil/gas extraction operation and split the profit. win-win

 

[KRAIT]

There's this dream you guys have that all of you will be middle class with 50k $ gdp per capita. US had the same. Look where they are now, economically speaking.

In regards to the researchers leaving, how would you stop knowledge from spreading? I mean, what's classified in most cases doesn't get out. And science how to feed a billion people with genetically altered plants for example, i find it pretty harmless to share.

College grounds are a brainwashing machine anyhow, US especially, so i wonder what else those students will bring home.

Buddy you did present good argument but this one is rather desperate one. Or may be its me. I told what many "experts" have said.

All I look is that balance is not going to tilt on one side but it will be more or less at equal level lets say 60-40 or 65-35 plus count in 2.5 billion Asians living in India and China. To feed billion people, both countries are already buying land in Africa if you haven't read about but if you do provide this technique, you are ensuring growth of Asians in other part of the world.

As for bringing knowledge back home, my Prof. with whom I am working for past 4 years, is a former NASA scientist and known person in my field, his friends in US/UK/India shares more or less the same view. He say US don't let foreign nationals in advance tech but still they give enough exposure that our own country can't. Its more than Indians ask for. Working in collaboration with US researchers while living in India has also becoming major trend.

I can explain more about this change if you want. I don't challenge US superiority in technology but thinking that gap hasn't reduced especially in case of China, then you are underestimating the entire situation.

 

[Korean]

US needs to be the arbitrator in this dispite as it is the originator of it

The US has a legal obligation to defend the Diaoyutai from a Chinese invasion, so don't expect the US to side with China on this, even though Diaoyutai really belongs to Taiwan.

 

[KRAIT]

Do you remember maybe that China declared a no fishing period over that entire area. Well it turns out the no fishing period is actually typhoon season, when there's not so much fishing going on anyway.
So one could say they exerted control over the area but it just happened to coincide with a dangerous natural phenomenon. Sounds like Sun Tzu? Make something appear where there is nothing.
Problem is, Sun Tzu is required reading at all military schools. << this is in regards to your poker, bluffing remark from a previous post

If they are all smart they should start a joint venture oil/gas extraction operation and split the profit. win-win

Win-win is last resort buddy, threatening for all out war can make other smaller nations to back off. That's what they are trying to do.. Why divide with entire SCS if you can share with one or two major countries ? This is Sun Tzu. Defeating the enemy or taking a much larger share without firing a single shot. rather than entire region victory with waging a war.

 

[Korean]

If they are all smart they should start a joint venture oil/gas extraction operation and split the profit. win-win

If it was an economic issue, then something like that could be arranged, but it is primarily a national pride issue, and no compromise is possible in situations like that.