Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war to Yemen

[Aramagedon]

“Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen”
Eric Zuesse

On August 17th the “Moon of Alabama” blog headlined “Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen”, and opened:

Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis economic lifelines. This today was the decisive attack:

Drones launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked a massive oil and gas field deep inside Saudi Arabia’s sprawling desert on Saturday, causing what the kingdom described as a “limited fire” in the second such recent attack on its crucial energy industry. …

The Saudi acknowledgement of the attack came hours after Yahia Sarie, a military spokesman for the Houthis, issued a video statement claiming the rebels launched 10 bomb-laden drones targeting the field in their “biggest-ever” operation. He threatened more attacks would be coming.

New drones and missiles displayed in July 2019 by Yemen’s Houthi-allied armed forces [photo]:
bigger

Today’s attack is a check-mate move against the Saudis. Shaybah is some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from Houthi-controlled territory. There are many more important economic targets within that range. …

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

Moon of Alabama is run by an anonymous German intelligence analyst, who has perhaps the world’s best track-record of publicly identifying and announcing historical turning-points, and who is therefore also a great investigative journalist regarding international relations (especially military matters, which are his speciality).

He went on to say that the drones aren’t from Iran but are copies from Iran’s, “assembled in Yemen with the help of Hizbullah experts from Lebanon.”

He has been predicting for a long time that this war couldn’t be won by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MbS). In the present report, he says:

The war on Yemen that MbS started in March 2015 long proved to be unwinnable. Now it is definitely lost. Neither the U.S. nor the Europeans will come to the Saudis help. There are no technological means to reasonably protect against such attacks. Poor Yemen defeated rich Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi side will have to agree to political peace negotiations. The Yemeni demand for reparation payments will be eye watering. But the Saudis will have no alternative but to cough up whatever the Houthi demand.

The UAE was smart to pull out of Yemen during the last months.

If he is correct (and I have never yet found a prediction from him turn out to have been wrong), then this will be an enormous blow to the foreign markets for U.S.-made weapons, since the Sauds are the world’s largest foreign purchasers of those, and have spent profusely on them — and also on U.S. personnel to train their soldiers how to use them. So (and this is my prediction, not his), August 19th might be a good time to sell short U.S. armament-makers such as Lockheed Martin.

However: his prediction that “the Saudis will have no alternative but to cough up whatever the Houthi demand” seems to me to be the first one from him that could turn out to have been wrong.

If the Sauds have perpetrated, say, $200 billion of physical damage to Yemen, but refuse to pay more than $100 billion in reparations, and the Houthis then hit and take out a major Saudi oil well, isn’t it possible that the Sauds would stand firm?

But if they do, then mightn’t it be wrong to say, at the present time, that: “Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen.”?

He has gone out on limbs before, and I can’t yet think of any that broke under him. Maybe this one will be the first? I wouldn’t bet on that. But this one seems to me to be a particularly long limb. We’ll see!

https://off-guardian.org/2019/08/19/today-saudi-arabia-finally-lost-the-war-on-yemen/

 

[Ritual]

Where do the Houthis get their weapons from? Can Saudi not just blockade their supply through the ports?

 

[Dexon]

did saudis media release any picture of shaybah facility after drone attack?

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Where do the Houthis get their weapons from? Can Saudi not just blockade their supply through the ports?

It's likely locally made.

 

[Dil Pakistan]

“Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen”
Eric Zuesse

On August 17th the “Moon of Alabama” blog headlined “Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen”, and opened:

Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis economic lifelines. This today was the decisive attack:

Drones launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked a massive oil and gas field deep inside Saudi Arabia’s sprawling desert on Saturday, causing what the kingdom described as a “limited fire” in the second such recent attack on its crucial energy industry. …

The Saudi acknowledgement of the attack came hours after Yahia Sarie, a military spokesman for the Houthis, issued a video statement claiming the rebels launched 10 bomb-laden drones targeting the field in their “biggest-ever” operation. He threatened more attacks would be coming.

New drones and missiles displayed in July 2019 by Yemen’s Houthi-allied armed forces [photo]:
bigger

Today’s attack is a check-mate move against the Saudis. Shaybah is some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from Houthi-controlled territory. There are many more important economic targets within that range. …

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

Moon of Alabama is run by an anonymous German intelligence analyst, who has perhaps the world’s best track-record of publicly identifying and announcing historical turning-points, and who is therefore also a great investigative journalist regarding international relations (especially military matters, which are his speciality).

He went on to say that the drones aren’t from Iran but are copies from Iran’s, “assembled in Yemen with the help of Hizbullah experts from Lebanon.”

He has been predicting for a long time that this war couldn’t be won by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MbS). In the present report, he says:

The war on Yemen that MbS started in March 2015 long proved to be unwinnable. Now it is definitely lost. Neither the U.S. nor the Europeans will come to the Saudis help. There are no technological means to reasonably protect against such attacks. Poor Yemen defeated rich Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi side will have to agree to political peace negotiations. The Yemeni demand for reparation payments will be eye watering. But the Saudis will have no alternative but to cough up whatever the Houthi demand.

The UAE was smart to pull out of Yemen during the last months.

If he is correct (and I have never yet found a prediction from him turn out to have been wrong), then this will be an enormous blow to the foreign markets for U.S.-made weapons, since the Sauds are the world’s largest foreign purchasers of those, and have spent profusely on them — and also on U.S. personnel to train their soldiers how to use them. So (and this is my prediction, not his), August 19th might be a good time to sell short U.S. armament-makers such as Lockheed Martin.

However: his prediction that “the Saudis will have no alternative but to cough up whatever the Houthi demand” seems to me to be the first one from him that could turn out to have been wrong.

If the Sauds have perpetrated, say, $200 billion of physical damage to Yemen, but refuse to pay more than $100 billion in reparations, and the Houthis then hit and take out a major Saudi oil well, isn’t it possible that the Sauds would stand firm?

But if they do, then mightn’t it be wrong to say, at the present time, that: “Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen.”?

He has gone out on limbs before, and I can’t yet think of any that broke under him. Maybe this one will be the first? I wouldn’t bet on that. But this one seems to me to be a particularly long limb. We’ll see!

https://off-guardian.org/2019/08/19/today-saudi-arabia-finally-lost-the-war-on-yemen/

This only brings the much known "Iran War" closer.

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

did saudis media release any picture of shaybah facility after drone attack?

I don't think so. Satellite imagery clearly showed smoke and damage though.

Houthis also shot down a second MQ-9 Reaper drone over Yemen yesterday (confirmed by US).

Houthis used a new, indigenous SAM system to shoot down the second MQ-9 Predator in 2 months. They promised to show the new SAM to the world soon.

I don't think there will be reparations; but the gist of the article seems correct. When the Houthis can successfully strike 1200km into your country and cause damage to vital infrastructure then you know you fucked up.

 

[BVR]

Not since cleared to me this little confusion, can any one please clarify them to me ?

Who are houthis ?
What do they want ?
Why Saudis are against them ?

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

Not since cleared to me this little confusion, can any one please clarify them to me ?

Who are houthis ?
What do they want ?
Why Saudis are against them ?

Brief overview:

Yemen used to be North Yemen and South Yemen until 1990. Houthis are Zaidi minority from the North. Yemen used to be ruled by Saleh, who was very corrupt and destroyed Yemen's economy. He wanted to become ruler of Yemen for life and become a dictator so Yemenis across the country rebelled against him (part of Arab Spring).

Then Saleh fled to Saudi Arabia and agreed to step down and transfer power to Hadi for a two-year term and promise to hold real elections in 2014. Saleh returned and was granted immunity against all prosecution for his crimes.

Hadi never held the 2014 elections, so Houthis rebelled to force Hadi to accept a unity government including Houthi representation. Hadi and his government resigned and then fled to South Yemen and Houthis declared they were the new government.

Hadi then rescinded his resignation (!), fled to KSA and invited KSA to bomb Yemen to restore him to power.

Then lots of complicated things happened such as Saleh and his forces allying with Houthis, then trying to ally with KSA only to be killed by Houthis for his betrayal, etc.

KSA backs Hadi to be ruler but UAE backs Southern Transitional Council (STC) groups in the South. STC want independence (remember Yemen used to be North and South Yemen - two separate states...). Both Hadi and STC were formally allied against Houthis, but now STC are fighting against Hadi forces and have seized a lot of military bases and key buildings (such as the Presidential Palace in Aden).

Houthis never fired any missiles against Saudi Arabia before KSA invaded Yemen to attack Houthis (committing war crimes, creating the worst humanitarian crisis in the world today according to the UN, killing tens of thousands of civilians, etc). KSA think Houthis are an Iranian proxy and Hadi was a Saudi puppet, so they prefer to have Hadi regime in Yemen.

Iran certainly gives Houthis some element of support, but the idea that Iran controls the Houthis or something is simply Saudi paranoia/propaganda. Indeed, in 2014 when the Houthis were rebelling against the Hadi regime to hold new elections, Iran advised the Houthis against moving into Sana'a (the capital), but the Houthis ignored Iran and did it anyway.

Now the Houthis have a wide range of missiles and drones and have shown an ability to strike targets 1200km into Saudi Arabia. Their traditional stronghold homeland in North Yemen is very large and mountainous and it is like the Taliban in Afghanistan; they cannot be totally defeated. UAE has pulled most of its forces out of Yemen already because they don't want to fight Houthis any more, they just want to gain influence with STC proxies.

 

[ebrahym]

Brief overview:

Yemen used to be North Yemen and South Yemen until 1990. Houthis are Zaidi minority from the North. Yemen used to be ruled by Saleh, who was very corrupt and destroyed Yemen's economy. He wanted to become ruler of Yemen for life and become a dictator so Yemenis across the country rebelled against him (part of Arab Spring).

Then Saleh fled to Saudi Arabia and agreed to step down and transfer power to Hadi for a two-year term and promise to hold real elections in 2014. Saleh returned and was granted immunity against all prosecution for his crimes.

Hadi never held the 2014 elections, so Houthis rebelled to force Hadi to accept a unity government including Houthi representation. Hadi and his government resigned and then fled to South Yemen and Houthis declared they were the new government.

Hadi then rescinded his resignation (!), fled to KSA and invited KSA to bomb Yemen to restore him to power.

Then lots of complicated things happened such as Saleh and his forces allying with Houthis, then trying to ally with KSA only to be killed by Houthis for his betrayal, etc.

KSA backs Hadi to be ruler but UAE backs Southern Transitional Council (STC) groups in the South. STC want independence (remember Yemen used to be North and South Yemen - two separate states...). Both Hadi and STC were formally allied against Houthis, but now STC are fighting against Hadi forces and have seized a lot of military bases and key buildings (such as the Presidential Palace in Aden).

Houthis never fired any missiles against Saudi Arabia before KSA invaded Yemen to attack Houthis (committing war crimes, creating the worst humanitarian crisis in the world today according to the UN, killing tens of thousands of civilians, etc). KSA think Houthis are an Iranian proxy and Hadi was a Saudi puppet, so they prefer to have Hadi regime in Yemen.

Iran certainly gives Houthis some element of support, but the idea that Iran controls the Houthis or something is simply Saudi paranoia/propaganda. Indeed, in 2014 when the Houthis were rebelling against the Hadi regime to hold new elections, Iran advised the Houthis against moving into Sana'a (the capital), but the Houthis ignored Iran and did it anyway.

Now the Houthis have a wide range of missiles and drones and have shown an ability to strike targets 1200km into Saudi Arabia. Their traditional stronghold homeland in North Yemen is very large and mountainous and it is like the Taliban in Afghanistan; they cannot be totally defeated. UAE has pulled most of its forces out of Yemen already because they don't want to fight Houthis any more, they just want to gain influence with STC proxies.

i am going to copy your text and post it in a new thread because it deserves it