To Karzai From Pakistan: ‘Put Up Or Shut Up’

[Neo]

To Karzai From Pakistan: ‘Put Up Or Shut Up’
​

By Farzana "Jana" Shah

PESHAWAR, Pakistan— “Pakistan needs to do more on war-on-terror”, the irritating sentence is very familiar to Pakistani ears.

It’s time Pakistan should seriously ‘do more’ even if it is irritates Karzai.

After the U.S. attack on Afghanistan back in 2001, Pakistan had to withdraw its support to Taliban and ever since has been facing security threats due to its policies perceived to be serving U.S. interests more than Pakistan’s own national security needs. Pakistan has been and still is facing severe criticism internally as well as from certain external quarters for its most conspicuous U-turn against the Taliban.

Since then, the tribal areas of Pakistan face a growing militancy while the settled areas are also rattled by the militants. Despite deploying about 70,000 soldiers on our western border with Afghanistan to fight terrorism, and having lost many of our soldiers in this fight, Karzai and NATO most of the time press Pakistan to do more.

The fact remains that Pakistan is not responsible for the war and for U.S. casualties in Afghanistan. The Afghan economy is now a narco-economy with over $150 billion dollars worth of drugs produced, processed and shipped from Afghanistan. Most of the major government officials, governors and ministers in the Karzai government are ‘drug lords.’

Even today the control of the government does not extended beyond Kabul, forcing Mr. Karzai to express his frustration by launching a blame game to hide his own failures.

Whereas in Afghanistan, and despite the superior weapons and technology, the U.S. and NATO forces failed to contain the anti-coalition opposition and fighters.

Afghans see the presence of aliens on their soil as occupation. These ordinary Afghans are now supporting those fighting against the U.S. occupation. Coupled with this the killing of a large number of innocent Afghan men, women and children every now and then in air strikes is increasing Afghan anger against the American presence.

In the wake of all these factors the U.S. policy, which seems more like a list of forlorn wishes, is set to boomerang in Afghanistan.

Taliban are now fighting positional wars with regular fronts in Khost and Kandahar regions. The weapons in the hands of the Taliban are supplied, as per more and more intelligence reports, by the Russians and even by Iranian sources. The contribution of Pakistani tribal areas in forging the strategic outcome of the war in Afghanistan is less than 10% from every strategic and military standpoint. For all practical purposes, the war is an Afghan problem and is not being controlled or decided from the Pakistani tribal regions.

But the Afghan and U.S. game is simple:

1. Blame Pakistan for all the sufferings and war in the country.

2. Initiate a head-on collision between Pakistani State and Pakistani tribal militants.

3. Create a rift between armed forces of Pakistan and Pakistani society.

4. Create environment for separation of tribal regions into an autonomous new country.

5. And leading up to the creation of enough chaos and anarchy in Pakistan to justify forced removal of Pakistani nuke assets.

Frustrated by an apparent defeat in Iraq, loss of public approval and support in Afghanistan and failure to prove that the presence of NATO/U.S. forces is aimed at liberating the Afghans, the U.S. and Mr. Karzai seek an escape by blaming others.

Very systematically the local Pakistani Taliban are infiltrated by the U.S. assets led by Baitullah Mehsud to create hatred against the government and armed forces of Pakistan resulting in many attacks on law enforcement agencies. These U.S. assets in the garb of “Taliban” have succeeded to a great extent to create a divide between the local Taliban and the State.

U.S. assets within Pakistani political parties and media have been mobilized to create confusion among the Pakistani public about the security situation and the safety of our nuclear program. Under a well-planned strategy pressure is being built against nuclear weapons of Pakistan by floating false propaganda.

The more sinister plan is being woven for turning the Pakistani federation into a confederation by supporting the sub-nationalists in NWFP and Balochistan. The efforts for separating FATA from Pakistan have already been initiated by buying out tribal leaders from FATA. The demand for a separate province consisting of FATA is being fed to the tribal leaders, and press conferences and wide media coverage is being arranged to publicize this demand and prepare the public mindset for this eventuality.

A few months ago, a select group of little known tribal leaders was reportedly invited by the Americans on a trip to the U.S. where they were assigned the task to promote the notion of separate province of FATA.

Civil society organizations have also been activated to make grounds for the demand of making FATA a separate province. These NGOs funded by U.S. and Western countries are constantly arranging seminars and propagating the idea while at the same time formulating suggestions for the same.

Just four days ago the PPP government has announced turning FATA into a territory with an elected council and for the purpose has sought suggestions from these NGOs and other stakeholders.

The U.S. has already has committed to pumping millions of dollars in for ‘development’ of FATA to be utilized through non-government organizations to win minds and hearts resulting in gaining local support.

The doctrine of greater provincial autonomy is also being promoted through the sub-nationalists who are in the first phase demanding total control of resources (which means the elements within provincial governments can blackmail and bypass Islamabad regarding important strategic issues in the future) as well as doing away with the concurrent list which will empower the sub-nationalists to post own trusted people on key posts who will in future carry on the agenda.

Many eyebrows were raised when, immediate after the oath taking by Yousaf Raza Gilani, he announced the abolishment of the Frontier Crimes Regulations (40-FCR) without any planning. The decision was criticized both by the tribesmen as well as intellectuals and it people were wondering on whose behest did the prime minister take such an immediate decision barely hours after assuming office.

The game is exposed and now it is time that Pakistan develops some serious response to the challenge. Indeed, Pakistan needs to “do more” to check the sinister game plan against the homeland.

So let’s do more.

1. To start with, Pakistan should immediately initiate three steps:

2. Revive Pak-Afghan Jirga held in Kabul in August 2007 which had concluded with the agreement that Pakistan and Afghanistan governments will initiate talks with Afghan Taliban and bring them onboard the peace process. The process was abandoned later on after strong U.S. objections to the idea.

3. Fence/mine the border to check any unwanted crossings and infiltrations. Install biometric system at border at selected crossings as being done in Chaman border crossing in Balochistan.

4. Pakistan needs to redefine its Afghan Policy, ideally declaring neutrality in the conflict and offering to act as mediator between Afghan parties to the conflict. Pakistan still does not have a defined anti-terrorism policy either.

5. Pakistan should immediate debate and discuss the Afghan and anti-terror policies in parliament and develop a national mandate through the political parties, elected representatives and the cabinet.

6. A high power parliamentary or judicial commission should be constituted to know and identify the causes, perpetrators, ideology, groups and militants behind the suicide bombings in the country against State and people. The crisis is huge enough to demand a public inquiry and expose of the phenomenon.

Reviving the jirga:

Last year in 2007, on the suggestion of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a joint Pak-Afghan Jirga – a commission for peace in the region was formed. The Pak-Afghan Jirga having full backing of NATO and U.S. engaged about 700 tribal leaders and other influential elders from both sides held two meetings one each in both the countries. The meeting held in Kabul in August 2007 participated by tribesmen and other influential persons from both sides presented valuable suggestions to fight terrorism and bring peace in the region.

The ensuing Pak-Afghan Jirga was being viewed with great expectations to bring peace in the region particularly to deal with the violence in Afghanistan. The participating representatives of tribesmen from both sides suggested bringing Taliban onboard the peace talks for bringing stability in the region. However to utter dismay of the people of both the countries, the jirga the brain child of Afghan President Karzai, who was the main architect of the structure and mechanism of this jirga, was put on backburner due to reasons that a peace in Afghanistan clashed head-on with the U.S. objectives in the region. Pakistani President Musharraf at he concluding session of the jirga meeting had declared Taliban as legitimate entity in the war and one of the delegates even went as far as demanding total withdrawal of the U.S. forces! Obviously, U.S. was not amused and decided to shelve the idea. Now it is the time that the concept be revived once again and brought in the limelight.

It is not some strange or alien idea as in the past during pre-Soviet invasion period tribal elders from Pakistan used to be invited to Kabul as official guests and also used to attend the proceedings of Loya Jirga of Afghanistan.

Fence/mine the border & install biometric system

Karzai’s ludicrous demands:

*Pakistan should stop Taliban from crossing.
*Pakistan should keep the refugee camps in Pakistan which act as safe areas for Taliban.
*Pakistan should allow more people to people contact between tribes across *the border.
*Pakistan should not fence the border.
*Pakistan should not install biometric system to identity refugees from among the militants.
*Pakistan should do more to stop Taliban.

Now what do we make out of this confused set of ridiculous demands?

It is obvious that Mr. Karzai is only interested in creating crisis and confusion for Islamabad and not in genuinely finding solutions to the problems of cross border movements. There is no way Mr. Karzai or his government can accept fencing of the border as that affects their drug trade as well and they are then not able to support the BLA as well as some terrorists in tribal regions. But it is time that Pakistan should ‘do more’.

Mr. Karzai has been instrumental in worsening Pak-Afghan relations as the relations between the two countries witnessed a steep downtrend following a continuing vitriol from Karzai regarding the alleged “cross-border” infiltration of the Taliban from Pakistan.

To interdict the so-called movement of militants across the border, besides conducting military operations in FATA, Pakistan also proposed to fence and mines the Pak-Afghan border which was turned down by the Kabul Administration. It is ridiculous that Mr. Karzai constantly accuses Pakistan of ‘cross-border infiltration’ while at the same time advocates open borders between the two countries. During his visit to Pakistan in February 2006, Karzai opposed the fencing of the border and said he favored passport-free movement of people along the Pak-Afghan border.

Fencing and mining the border can be very effective in checking infiltration of unwanted elements into either of the two countries. If the Afghan president refuses to accept this fencing and mining idea, then Pakistan has no responsibility of any sort to check any cross- border movement. Enough is enough!

Many refugee camps were closed down in tribal agencies of Pakistan owing to the accusation by Kabul that these are being used as sanctuaries by militants but the action did not sit well with Afghan government unable to provide security and livelihood to own citizens. The strange dichotomy is that Kabul is reluctant to accept the remedial steps for controlling unwanted cross-border movement. It is nearly impossible to check every person crossing without putting a mechanism in place at the border hence either the border has to be fenced/ mined or biometric system has to be installed at Western border with Afghanistan as has been done in Balochistan.

Pakistan has installed the system in Balochistan at Chaman at Pak-Afghan friendship gate but again to utter disappointment some Afghans backed by some hidden hands repeatedly damage the gate and even a high official of Karzai government took part in one such attack aimed at damaging the system recently.

It dose not require rocket science to understand that some vested elements in Karzai government have some sinister motives behind such acts. The number of those who daily cross over at only two crossing points of Chaman and Torkham is stated to be about 30, 000 with about 20,000 only at Chaman so put together with number of those crossing the porous border points could go much higher.

Hence fencing/mining is necessary in the first place while installing biometric system is equally important.

Needs for redefining Pakistan’s Afghan policy:

Since U.S. attack on Afghanistan Pakistan has been carrying out a directionless Afghan policy. It is time Pakistan declares neutrality in someone else’s war. Pakistan has already done great damage to her security by supporting unequivocally and whole- hoggedly the U.S. on its War-on-Terror.

We had used every possible mean to destroy our assets and good will in Afghanistan but despite damaging our presence in Afghanistan we get the blame for harboring Taliban and relations with Afghanistan remain sour.

The bad relations between the two important neighbors would only contribute to the instability of the region. It is, therefore, highly imperative for Pakistan to take an in-depth stock of its future relationship with Afghanistan, assets and presence there.

What is most disappointing that despite taking a complete U-turn against Taliban even then it did not win us the favor of the ungrateful Americans?

We must, therefore, in the best interest of Pakistan and its posterity realize that we can no longer continue with this state of affairs at the cost and expense of our own national security.

It is time that we adopted a more neutral policy towards Afghan conflict and could play the role of a mediator between the Afghan government and the anti-coalition forces including Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami. Pakistan can play the role it was playing in the post-Soviet invasion in Afghanistan by brining all those party to the conflict on a single platform to bring peace to the war-torn country.

It is time that Karzai should accept ground realities and stop opposing fencing and mining of border or installation of biometric system if he really is interested in effective checking of cross-border infiltration. It is time that Taliban are accepted as a reality and brought on board as agreed in Pak-Afghan jirga otherwise in plane diplomatic decent language borrowed from the Queen’s English - Pakistan should ask Karzai to “put up or shut up.”

Pakistan News Service - PakTribune

 

[Neo]

Excellent read Jana Ji.

 

[Flintlock]

I can understand that military operations against the Pakistani Taliban is unpopular in pakistan.No party in Pakistan is willing to go the whole hog at the cost of upsetting their electorate.
Musharraf was the only one who could manage to swallow the bitter pill.

As for US attacking Pakistani territory, it seems very unlikely. Their army is already overstretched and NATO countries are unwilling to supply more troops. Their desperation is apparent because they've been asking India and even China.

This threat seems like a tactic to get Pakistan to do more. As of now, there is a lot of dithering and no consensus withing the Pakistani establishment on how to tackle the problem.
India presence in Afghanistan is another distraction. Going by last week's embassy attack, the ISI seems to be working against this, rather than face the realities on their own territory.

The biggest challenge is to prevent the Taliban from getting wider support among the Tribal militias and locals. If that happens, then things will take a nasty turn downwards.

What we should be seeing:

* Massive propaganda war against the Taliban on radio, TV, Newspapers and public speeches.
* Assassination attempts on militia leaders by the spooks
* Surgical operations by special forces to eliminate key targets

What we should not be seeing (but we are seeing)

* Clumsy bombing raids that kill civilians and make people angry
* A stop-start military operation that seems to be ineffective

 

[maqsad]

What I want to know is why Mushy, Ary and Geo never ever complain about the security disaster that has been caused by joining the WOT? Why do we never hear Mushy say that this has harmed Pakistan, what is he afraid of? Or is Mushy happy doing what he is doing?

Why doesn't Mushy, Gilani or Kiyani ever complain about Afghan drug lords and Afghan/US sponsored terrorists like the BLA and others who attack Pakistan?

 

[Spring Onion]

I can understand that military operations against the Pakistani Taliban is unpopular in pakistan.No party in Pakistan is willing to go the whole hog at the cost of upsetting their electorate.
Musharraf was the only one who could manage to swallow the bitter pill.

US/Afghanistan is not much intrested in doing more against Pakistani Taliban as these Talibans are used by US led by Baitullah Mehsud to create unrest and spread terrorism in Pakistan and thus engage Pakistan army there.

If Karzai and US are so much intrested in controling what they call infiltration from both sides why they do not agree to fencing and mining of the Pak-Afghan border ??

Just beacuse it would stop trug trade acorss Pakistan run by Afghan warlords, Afghan Government officials backed by US.

As for US attacking Pakistani territory, it seems very unlikely. Their army is already overstretched and NATO countries are unwilling to supply more troops. Their desperation is apparent because they've been asking India and even China.

For that they dont need any ground forces.

This threat seems like a tactic to get Pakistan to do more. As of now, there is a lot of dithering and no consensus withing the Pakistani establishment on how to tackle the problem.

The US backed thugs are not free from thier own intrest race how can they have a consensus.

India presence in Afghanistan is another distraction. Going by last week's embassy attack, the ISI seems to be working against this, rather than face the realities on their own territory.

Indian consulates in Afghanistan are running terror training camps where BLA terrorists are trained against Pakistan.

As far Kabul Embbasy blast thats another bluff India had played to get world attention rather eyeing bigger role in Afghanistan.
The balst was designed by India itself its not something new for us Stealth.

The biggest challenge is to prevent the Taliban from getting wider support among the Tribal militias and locals. If that happens, then things will take a nasty turn downwards.

First of all we need to seal Pak-Afghan border by fencing and mining so that no element either from Afghanistan or Pakistan infiltrate into any of the sides.

It will contain the corss-border infiltration and NATO forces will be at ease to chase and hit Taliban in Afghanistan while Pakistan will be able to holed up Taliban on its own side

 

[araz]

US/Afghanistan is not much intrested in doing more against Pakistani Taliban as these Talibans are used by US led by Baitullah Mehsud to create unrest and spread terrorism in Pakistan and thus engage Pakistan army there.

If Karzai and US are so much intrested in controling what they call infiltration from both sides why they do not agree to fencing and mining of the Pak-Afghan border ??

Just beacuse it would stop trug trade acorss Pakistan run by Afghan warlords, Afghan Government officials backed by US.




For that they dont need any ground forces.



The US backed thugs are not free from thier own intrest race how can they have a consensus.



Indian consulates in Afghanistan are running terror training camps where BLA terrorists are trained against Pakistan.

As far Kabul Embbasy blast thats another bluff India had played to get world attention rather eyeing bigger role in Afghanistan.
The balst was designed by India itself its not something new for us Stealth.





First of all we need to seal Pak-Afghan border by fencing and mining so that no element either from Afghanistan or Pakistan infiltrate into any of the sides.

It will contain the corss-border infiltration and NATO forces will be at ease to chase and hit Taliban in Afghanistan while Pakistan will be able to holed up Taliban on its own side

A good post. I fully agree we should seal the Pak Afghan border and push all the Afghans on our soil back into afghanistan. There has been enough meddling in our affairs and it should not be tolerated any more.
Araz

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

This threat seems like a tactic to get Pakistan to do more. As of now, there is a lot of dithering and no consensus withing the Pakistani establishment on how to tackle the problem.
India presence in Afghanistan is another distraction. Going by last week's embassy attack, the ISI seems to be working against this, rather than face the realities on their own territory.

Disagree on the "dithering in the Pakistani establishment", and obviously the 'ISI' canard is just that - a lame accusation without evidence that has already been dismissed by the party with the most advanced intelligence collecting apparatus and presence in Afghanistan, the US.

On the first part, there is an informative article by Shaheen Sehbai in The News, which talks about how the military is approaching these issues:

ISLAMABAD: Whatever the cronies and defeated politicians, who still support President Pervez Musharraf, may wishfully pronounce on live television, or whatever the retired general may claim about his old constituency, the power corridors of Islamabad and Rawalpindi that matter are absolutely unmoved about the political situation everyone is cribbing about.

On the contrary, there is a growing confidence, and a desire, that the political process must not only continue undisturbed but it should become more assertive, take more responsibility, make some badly-needed difficult choices and even own some of the bitter decisions of the past.

This assessment, made after talking to a number of critical stakeholders and power brokers, does not, however, absolve the present political leadership of a massive failure in appearing serious, or even capable, of governance, let alone good governance.

Yet the feeling of frustration and utter disappointment in the political circles, the media and the masses, basically arising out of the state of inertia and lack of confidence shown by the political leadership in moving the democratic process forward, is not being shared, may be for the time being, by the most powerful partner of the troika, so to say.

There is, in fact, a determined will and even a quiet, persuasive and persistent effort to make the political players realise that they have to take charge of the situation, develop national policies, put their heads together and chalk out plans and strategies, which the other arms of the state are ready to implement without any questions asked.

The effort is to let the elected representatives come up with solutions, which they should own, instead of throwing back the ball in the court of implementing agencies, as was recently done after a full briefing to the entire political leadership in case of the operations in the Khyber Agency and the NWFP.

The bottom lines and the red lines on each issue, with clearly defined pros and cons, are being explained to political leaders but there is a decision in principle that any option adopted by the political government would be accepted and fully implemented, as it may be ordered, with whatever consequences.

Having said all that, though key players are not prepared to come on record or discuss in detail the available options on internal terrorism, economic revival, national integration and the American war against terror (read Pakistan), besides other important domestic issues, they expect the political leadership to rise to the occasion and start governing, sooner the better.

But to be fair, there is no sense of desperation or restlessness, which may pose even a far-fetched threat to the system...

A silver lining in the looming dark clouds

The above implies that the military, including the ISI, has taken a back seat to the government on when it comes to determining policy. This is expected, since Gen. Kiyanis aim since taking control as COAS has been to disassociate the military from civilian affairs, which is as it should be.

The US may express frustration that the military is not doing anything, but it is not the military's job to make the call to "do more" - and the US needs to avoid putting the military in the position to make the call unilaterally, or expecting it to. Pushing the military into the 'policy selection' role undermines the powers of the civilian government and undermines democracy.

Perhaps this new role of the Army defined by Kiyani was frustrated outgoing Gen. McNeill, who may have been operating on the premise that the military would continue to take the lead role as under Musharraf.

Jana also raises some other good points where cooperation from the Afghan side and US side has not been forthcoming:

*Pakistan should not fence the border.
*Pakistan should not install biometric system to identity refugees from among the militants

From the US side:

The US authorities have repeated their offer to provide specialised training to the personnel of the Frontier Corps for fighting terrorism and the government would seriously consider it, the sources said. But Pakistan at the same time is asking for improvement of coordination in efforts on counter-terrorism.

Pakistan is asking the US to improve intelligence sharing that is acutely limited despite the seven years of partnership in the so-called war on terror. The US administration has been reluctant to provide either electronic intercept equipment or raw intelligence about extremists, for fears best known to the Pentagon or State Department.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...ichael-mullen-mysterious-visit-islamabad.html

Going by the above, it is in fact the US and Afghanistan who have not stepped up in critical areas of cooperation, and refused to take realistic and viable steps to monitor and regulate movement across the border, so your last sentence is nothing but a bunch of hooey.

 

[Majnun]

But the Afghan and U.S. game is simple

The Karzai (Northern Alliance) and US game is simple.

Since U.S. attack on Afghanistan Pakistan has been carrying out a directionless Afghan policy. It is time Pakistan declares neutrality in someone else’s war. Pakistan has already done great damage to her security by supporting unequivocally and whole- hoggedly the U.S. on its War-on-Terror.

We had used every possible mean to destroy our assets and good will in Afghanistan but despite damaging our presence in Afghanistan we get the blame for harboring Taliban and relations with Afghanistan remain sour.

The bad relations between the two important neighbors would only contribute to the instability of the region. It is, therefore, highly imperative for Pakistan to take an in-depth stock of its future relationship with Afghanistan, assets and presence there.

What is most disappointing that despite taking a complete U-turn against Taliban even then it did not win us the favor of the ungrateful Americans

Now it looks like its too late. But we do have to start taking a hard line with the Americans and their constant accusations that we are doing too little. To keep crossing into our territory is shocking and any plane that does so should be fired upon without hesitation.

 

[Cheetah786]

What I want to know is why Mushy, Ary and Geo never ever complain about the security disaster that has been caused by joining the WOT? Why do we never hear Mushy say that this has harmed Pakistan, what is he afraid of? Or is Mushy happy doing what he is doing?

Why doesn't Mushy, Gilani or Kiyani ever complain about Afghan drug lords and Afghan/US sponsored terrorists like the BLA and others who attack Pakistan?

You mean to tell me Pakistan was peacefully before WOT was started.are you telling me as long as as these terrorist were allowed to carry out there attacks on ordinary people or shias it was OK as most weren't effected.

If the Zia p.i.g was killed in the start and didn't menage to spread house of Saud poision in Pakistan we might not be in this mess.blame the persons and organizations that should be blame not the only guy who actually were trying to clean the s.h.i.t.

 

[maqsad]

You mean to tell me Pakistan was peacefully before WOT was started.are you telling me as long as as these terrorist were allowed to carry out there attacks on ordinary people or shias it was OK as most weren't effected.

If the Zia p.i.g was killed in the start and didn't menage to spread house of Saud poision in Pakistan we might not be in this mess.blame the persons and organizations that should be blame not the only guy who actually were trying to clean the s.h.i.t.

OK by security disaster I did not just mean hassle for local pakistanis. By security disaster I mean pakistan being split into two pieces and both those pieces being turned into a bigger piece of garbage than Afghanistan was in 2000.

Anyway Zia is ancient history, I am asking about now. Right now. Right now why is Mushy quiet about Druglords in Afghanistan? Why is Mushy not saying Pakistan needs to invade Afghanistan to hunt drug lords, BLA terrorists and other problems? Why is the world always listening to complaints by Afghanistan and USA about Pakistan sponsoring terrorism? Why does Mushy, or Gilani or Kiyana tell Karzai to shut his terrorist sponsoring mouth and hand over his druglord terrorist brother?

Can you forget about history for a while and tell me why Pakistani leaders, military and civilian, are all just standing there and saying sorry sorry sorry when everyone is making ridiculous accusations against Pakistanis but these leaders never complain about all the terrorist problems Afghanistan and NATO is causing for Pakistan? That is my question.

 

[Flintlock]

Disagree on the "dithering in the Pakistani establishment", and obviously the 'ISI' canard is just that - a lame accusation without evidence that has already been dismissed by the party with the most advanced intelligence collecting apparatus and presence in Afghanistan, the US.

I'm amused. I really am. When the US intelligence says anything that might rile up Pakistani, the CIA is transformed into an incompetent bunch of nincompoops who bungled up Iraq and fabricated stories.

Now that the US has virtually kept mum on the issue, obviously not willing to further alienate the Pakistani establishment by finger-pointing, they are suddenly the bestest brightest and always-right guys.

As far as credibility is concerned, the NSA is any day a far more competent and authoritative voice than anything coming from the Pakistani establishment. I am not going to argue over this point, and you are free to dispute it.

The above implies that the military, including the ISI, has taken a back seat to the government on when it comes to determining policy. This is expected, since Gen. Kiyanis aim since taking control as COAS has been to disassociate the military from civilian affairs, which is as it should be.

I have already mentioned several times that powerful rogue elements within the ISI are running (and have been doing so for many decades) parallel operations which may or may not coincide with government policy.
There is a lot of material out there on this topic, and unless its all a
"bunch of propaganda and lies", I personally see no reason to dispute it.

The US may express frustration that the military is not doing anything, but it is not the military's job to make the call to "do more" - and the US needs to avoid putting the military in the position to make the call unilaterally, or expecting it to. Pushing the military into the 'policy selection' role undermines the powers of the civilian government and undermines democracy.

That's interesting.

In my opinion, now is the time to act. More and more of Pakistan is coming under the sway of the extremists, and the Pakistani establishment is losing support.
If something isn't done soon, democracy may never become a reality.

If Pakistan did not have an insurgency on its hands, you could wait it out and let the democrats work their slow magic.

Now is the time for a sustained war on all fronts - propaganda, intensive, pervasive propaganda against the extremists, and incisive operations to break the teeth of these guys.

Jana also raises some other good points where cooperation from the Afghan side and US side has not been forthcoming:

When did US categorically say that it will not allow Pakistan to fence the border or install biometric sensors (whatever those are)?

Going by the above, it is in fact the US and Afghanistan who have not stepped up in critical areas of cooperation, and refused to take realistic and viable steps to monitor and regulate movement across the border, so your last sentence is nothing but a bunch of hooey.

The US has its own fears that intelligence will get into the wrong hands, thus hampering their efforts rather than helping.

I am very, very skeptical that border-fencing is the panacea which will solve all ills. Infact, I think that its impossible to fence such a long and mountainous border effectively. It will probably hinder the US from launching cross-border offensives and help the Taliban who will have no qualms in breaching the fence whenever they feel like it.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I'm amused. I really am. When the US intelligence says anything that might rile up Pakistani, the CIA is transformed into an incompetent bunch of nincompoops who bungled up Iraq and fabricated stories.

Now that the US has virtually kept mum on the issue, obviously not willing to further alienate the Pakistani establishment by finger-pointing, they are suddenly the bestest brightest and always-right guys.

No need to be amused - I have not countered CIA analysis when it comes to 'rogue elements', "Khan's nuke proliferation', 'Taliban infiltration from FATA into Afghanistan' etc.

Where CIA analysis has been doubted is when the US has had a vested interest in misinformation i.e Iraq and Iran, and even there criticism has been primarily directed at the Bush adminsitration, and not so much the CIA, for picking and choosing intelligence to make their case for war.

In this particular case, the contrast between the capabilities of US and Indian intelligence in Afghanistan and Pakistan is pretty stark. The CIA, based on the reports of analysts like Ahmed Rashid and others, has a very large presence in Pakistan and the FATA, where they in fact bribed one Taliban commander, Haji Namdar, to betray some of the more hardcore Taliban groups.

With US presence on bases in Pakistan, almost continuous Predator overflights (with Pakistani sanction per some reports), etc, it is pretty much guaranteed that they have their noses in everything. Not only do they have a far better grasp on the situation (intel and info wise) than India, but Pakistan would be foolish to try anything like institutional support for the Taliban (except for support the US is aware of - like Namdar and Mullah Nazir) because it knows that it would be almost impossible to hide such support and activities.

As far as credibility is concerned, the NSA is any day a far more competent and authoritative voice than anything coming from the Pakistani establishment. I am not going to argue over this point, and you are free to dispute it.

I wouldn't expect an Indian to say anything other than "their stuff is better than Pakistan's", which is pretty much what I think of your statement - but my argument hasn't even incorporated anything from the Paksitani side - it has almost exclusively focused on how and why the US intel capabilities in Pakistan and Afghanistan are far superior to India's, and why they would have no reason to 'protect' Pakistan, at this point in time. Put an Islamist or uncooperative government in charge, like Iran's, and things might change.

I have already mentioned several times that powerful rogue elements within the ISI are running (and have been doing so for many decades) parallel operations which may or may not coincide with government policy.
There is a lot of material out there on this topic, and unless its all a
"bunch of propaganda and lies", I personally see no reason to dispute it.

There is an equal number of analysis from reputable institutes and experts that debunks the idea of a 'rogue ISI', and calls it a 'professional and disciplined organization'. In the Embassy bombing thread I pointed out two - The Council of Foreign Relations, and the International Strategic Studies Association.

I have also pointed out how the ISI is structured, how officers from all three services are rotated through, how Musharraf initiated a 'purge' in the ISI to weed out Islamist elements and how under Kiyani the ISI was responsible for apprehending Islamist elements plotting Musharraf's assassination. You have provided nothing to explain how such rogue elements have maintained power, who these elements are, why they apparently never retire, and if they do retire, how they keep getting replaced by similar 'rogue elements'.

The entire 'rogue agency' argument is one that cannot hold up to scrutiny when you analyze the structure of the ISI and how it is staffed. If you can explain how such a cabal of pro-Taliban rogues has managed to stay within the ISI through all these years, please do so.

That's interesting.

In my opinion, now is the time to act. More and more of Pakistan is coming under the sway of the extremists, and the Pakistani establishment is losing support.
If something isn't done soon, democracy may never become a reality.

If Pakistan did not have an insurgency on its hands, you could wait it out and let the democrats work their slow magic.

Now is the time for a sustained war on all fronts - propaganda, intensive, pervasive propaganda against the extremists, and incisive operations to break the teeth of these guys.

Actually public opinion in Pakistan, and opinion in the media (which plays a large role in shaping public opinion) is decidedly more favorable to the Army and the policy of attacking militants and extremists then when the military under Musharraf was entirely responsible for policy.

So the Army stepping back has been an excellent move in that respect, sine the PWoT cannot be won if people think that the unelected military is dictating policy. This way, despite the greater instability in the short to medium term, the responsibility will lie with the elected leadership and it provides a greater sense of ownership.

When did US categorically say that it will not allow Pakistan to fence the border or install biometric sensors (whatever those are)?

The US has deferred to Afghanistan on this issue, like it has on controlling the drugs and weapons trade - apparently it is not in its "mandate".

The GoA is the one refusing to allow fencing, mining, or biometric scanners - presumably because they still harbor desires to absorb Pakistan's Pashtun areas, and anything that hints at formalizing the border between the two, even if it would bring infiltration down, does not sit well with them.

The US has its own fears that intelligence will get into the wrong hands, thus hampering their efforts rather than helping.

I am very, very skeptical that border-fencing is the panacea which will solve all ills. Infact, I think that its impossible to fence such a long and mountainous border effectively. It will probably hinder the US from launching cross-border offensives and help the Taliban who will have no qualms in breaching the fence whenever they feel like it.

Well without better intelligence none of the steps you outlined earlier (SF raids etc.) can be conducted properly - only large Military ops. and bombings (which you criticized), so the US is going to have to start sharing intel and equipment for a more effective campaign on the Pakistani side.

This just shows that it is not Pakistan alone that is hampering efforts to fight this war.

Border fencing is not the end-all solution, but it will help. It has helped in similar terrain along the LoC, and the biometric ID's etc. will help prevent people who shouldn't be crossing the borders from doing so, and identifying and capturing wanted individuals.

These are all steps that help move towards a solution, though they are not the solution on their own.

 

[Flintlock]

No need to be amused - I have not countered CIA analysis when it comes to 'rogue elements', "Khan's nuke proliferation', 'Taliban infiltration from FATA into Afghanistan' etc.

Where it has been doubted is when the US has a vested interest in misinformation i.e Iraq and Iran, and even there criticism has been primarily directed at the Bush adminsitration, and not so much the CIA, for picking and choosing intelligence to make their case for war.

There has been criticism of course, but not in the mainstream-est media, i.e. Fox news.

In this particular case the contrast between the capabilities of US and Indian intelligence in Afghanistan and Pakistan is pretty stark. The CIA, based on the reports of analysts like Ahmed Rashid and others, has a very large presence in Pakistan and the FATA, where they in fact bribed one Taliban commander, Haji Namdar, to betray some of the more hardcore Taliban groups.

Fine by me. I'm sticking to what the NSA says. More out of faith than anything else.

With US presence on bases in Pakistan, almost continuous Predator overflights (with Pakistani sanction per some reports), etc. - and it is pretty much guaranteed that they have their noses in everything. Not only do they have a far better grasp on the situation (intel and info wise) than India, but Pakistan would be foolish to try anything like institutional support for the Taliban (except for support the US is aware of - like Namdar and Mullah Nazir) because it knows that it would be almost impossible to hide such support.

It is impossible to hide the support - hence the various reports on ISI's rogue activities by the US Intelligence establishment.

I wouldn't expect an Indian to say anything other than "their stuff is better than Pakistan's", which is pretty much what I think of your statement - but my argument hasn't even incorporated anything from the Paksitani side - it has almost exclusively focused on how and why the US intel capabilities in Paksitan and Afghanistan are far superior to India's, and why they would have no reason to 'protect' Pakistan, at this point in time. Put an Islamist or uncooperative government in charge, like Iran's, and things might change.

They do have very strong reasons to protect Pakistan and keep them happy. Please don't deny this, that's their whole damn Pakistan policy - pressure them to act and keep them happy by supplying weapons and keeping the talk sweet.

There are an equal number of analysis from reputable institutes and experts that debunk the idea of a 'rogue ISI', and call it professional and disciplined organization. In the Embassy bombing thread I pointed out two - The Council of Foreign Relations, and the International Strategic Studies Association.

I'll post an article on this very topic in a new thread. From CSR.

I have also pointed out how the ISI is structured, and how officers from all three services are rotated through, and how Musharraf initiated a 'purge' in the ISI to weed out Islamist elements and how under Kiyani the ISI was responsible for apprehending Islamist elements plotting Musharraf's assasination - you have provided nothing to explain how such rogue elements have maintained power, who these elements are, why they apparently never retire, and if they do retire, how they keep gettign replaced by similar 'rogue elements'.

Yeah, I can understand.

Its also impossible how an organization so beautifully structured as the Indian Civil Services can be so corrupt and incompetent.

Actually public opinion in Pakistan, and opinion in the media (which plays a large role in shaping public opinion) is decidedly more favorable to the Army and the policy of attacking militants and extremists then when the military under Musharraf was entirely responsible for policy.

We don't want a wishy-washy favourble opinion. We want the public to hate the Taliban with a passion. Only then can you hope to curtail their influence.

Oh and what governance? NWFP and FATA and Peshawar is practically ungovernable. In these areas, the time for good governance is over.

Border fencing is not the end-all solution, but it will help. It has helped in similar terrain along the LoC, and the biometric ID's etc. will help prevent people who shouldn't be crossing the borders from doing so, and identifying and capturing wanted individuals.

These are all steps that help move towards a solution, though they are not the solution on their own.

The LOC is a totally different situation. Infiltration is extremely low in comparison with the Durand, where tens of thousands of people need to cross daily.
The militants are far fewer, and if the fence is breached, it can be repaired easily.
However, it seems very unlikely that a fence is going to hinder a bunch of hardened Taliban with rocket launchers.

As far as IDs are concerned, forget about it for now. Pakistan can't even open police stations in the Tribal areas. Forget about Tagging people.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It is impossible to hide the support - hence the various reports on ISI's rogue activities by the US Intelligence establishment.

I am not debating 'rogue activity' - like I said, even Musharraf acknowledged that - but that is different from an entire organization being a 'rogue'.

They do have very strong reasons to protect Pakistan and keep them happy. Please don't deny this, that's their whole damn Pakistan policy - pressure them to act and keep them happy by supplying weapons and keeping the talk sweet.

Their Pakistan policy is linked to their Afghan policy - they are supporting Pakistan because they want to succeed in Afghanistan, and they cannot do that if there is institutional support from Pakistan for the Taliban (that they do not condone).

They made sure AQ Khan was marginalized, and the Nuclear issue was far more sensitive for Pakistan, why would they hold back (in private, if not public) on institutional support for the Taliban?

I'll post an article on this very topic in a new thread. From CSR.

Whats the point? Like I said there are other articles that contradict that opinion. Also, post it on one of the existing threads please - its the same discussion.

Yeah, I can understand.

Its also impossible how an organization so beautifully structured as the Indian Civil Services can be so corrupt and incompetent.

Career corruption - If you had the same people staffing the ISI for decades I could see, but when you have rotational policies, leadership changed regularly, and specific moves at curbing the influence of such elements, it wold only be possible if all three services, or at least the Army, were massively indisciplined, since that is where the ISI gets its staff from primarily.

We don't want a wishy-washy favourble opinion. We want the public to hate the Taliban with a passion. Only then can you hope to curtail their influence.

Oh and what governance? NWFP and FATA and Peshawar is practically ungovernable. In these areas, the time for good governance is over.

What 'we want' isn't possible without a magic wand instantaneously. That is a process that has to play out in society, and the Army distancing itself from policy selection matters is an important prerequisite for that process to take place.

And where did I say anything abut governance?

Peshawar is actually back under control, other than the usual South Asian corruption and crime.

The LOC is a totally different situation. Infiltration is extremely low in comparison with the Durand, where tens of thousands of people need to cross daily.
The militants are far fewer, and if the fence is breached, it can be repaired easily.
However, it seems very unlikely that a fence is going to hinder a bunch of hardened Taliban with rocket launchers.

As far as IDs are concerned, forget about it for now. Pakistan can't even open police stations in the Tribal areas. Forget about Tagging people.

That is true, but the point is to make it an additional obstacle, and not fence the entire Durand, leaving the more common crossing points open, but manned with guards on both sides. Fencing will at the very least slow down the infiltrators, and with proper surveillance, make it easier to detect crossings.

We can't forget ID's. Lack of control in the Tribal areas remains limited to pockets an specific regions. the ID's only have to be enforced at the border by both sides, and the innocent tribal residents will obtain them provided the services for ID issuance are there. Its actually completely doable. The lack of control isn't quite as horrible as you make it out to be.

 

[Majnun]

Fine by me. I'm sticking to what the NSA says. More out of faith than anything else.

Blind faith.

They do have very strong reasons to protect Pakistan and keep them happy. Please don't deny this, that's their whole damn Pakistan policy - pressure them to act and keep them happy by supplying weapons and keeping the talk sweet.

Talk sweet? They end up somehow blaming Pakistan for everything, and even resort to threats.

Its also impossible how an organization so beautifully structured as the Indian Civil Services can be so corrupt and incompetent.

Indian hi hai na.

We don't want a wishy-washy favourble opinion. We want the public to hate the Taliban with a passion. Only then can you hope to curtail their influence.

Just out of curiosity, would that include lying to make the public hate them? Most of the stuff reported is rot and dishonest, and its made up.

Oh and what governance? NWFP and FATA and Peshawar is practically ungovernable. In these areas, the time for good governance is over.

They are being governed and are not as dangerous as made out. On that matter, please, as an Indian, don't comment on our internal matters around NWFP and FATA.

The LOC is a totally different situation. Infiltration is extremely low in comparison with the Durand, where tens of thousands of people need to cross daily.
The militants are far fewer, and if the fence is breached, it can be repaired easily.
However, it seems very unlikely that a fence is going to hinder a bunch of hardened Taliban with rocket launchers.

As far as IDs are concerned, forget about it for now. Pakistan can't even open police stations in the Tribal areas. Forget about Tagging people

Then why would it hinder people in freedom fighters in Kashmir? The Indians are more brutal than Israel, more brutal than Stalin ever was, but none of it is reported. They have committed some of the worst crimes, and gotten away with them. It has all been kept quiet.