Time.com,Child Marriages,Pakistan and Lies

[PAKjunoon]

Recently Defence.pk shared an article on child marriages in Pakistan by Time.com on its twitter account.

Well I was bored,had nothing to do,so I read it.

And it was unbelievable.


I knew child marriages did happen in Pakistan,but the numbers and rates in the articles were more then I could ever imagined.

I couldn't believe the numbers.They were too high.Impossible.

There had to be some mistake.

So, I researched further and what I found was shocking.


1. Claim:

The time.com's article source is GirlsNotBrides.org. The number of child marriages in Pakistan is 1875000 and rate is 21% according to GirlsNotBrides.

Investigation:
GirlsNotBrides is not the primary source.It is quoting another source,a report titled , State of the World's Children, 2017,UNICEF.

which is in turn is quoting another source, a report titled Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 2012-2013.

According to the report, the researchers only surveyed girls between the ages of 20-24 and questioned only 4183 female.Out of which only 2104 females are or were ever married.

Result:

• The 21% child marriage rate or 18,75,000 child marriages in Pakistan is based on answers of only 2104 females from whole of Pakistan.
• The rate and number of child marriages in Pakistan for 2017, is based on data from 2012-2013.

2. Claim:

The source is Gallup.com

That is 25% of Pakistani girls or 16 millions girls according to Gallup.

Investigation:
Gallup usually only surveys 1000 individuals.

but in 2017, they surveyed 1600 individuals in Pakistan.We can assume at least 50% will be females,that is 800 females.

Result:

• The number of 16 million child marriages or rate of 25% for child marriages is based on the survey of only 800 females from whole of Pakistan.

3. Claim:

Thats 3,77,761 pakistani women between ages of 20-24 who gave birth before they turned 18.

Investigation:
Again the primary source is Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey,2012-2013.
Again the researchers only surveyed girls between ages of 20-24 and questioned only 4,183 female.Out of which only 1,539 females ever gave birth.

Result:

• The number of 3,77,761 under age birth in Pakistan is based on answers of only 1,539 females from whole of Pakistan.
• The number of underage birth in Pakistan for 2017, is based on data from 2012-2013.

4. Claim:

Investigation:
The Time.com is quoting BBC, which in turn is quoting Centre of Excellence for Rural Development but I could not find the number on Centre of Excellence for Rural Development website or anywhere else.

Result:

• The primary source data does not exist.

Conclusion:

The number and rate of Child Marriages and Under Age Birth in Pakistan is based on the survey of less than 2500 females from whole of Pakistan.

That’s not even 0.003% of Pakistan’s female population.

Less than 0.003% is taken as the representative of the rest of 99.997%.

And the data is from 2012-2013.Not 2017.

It’s mind blowing.UNBELIEVABLE!

This raises some questions:

1. Does a sample of less than 2500 represent all the female demographic of Pakistan?
2. Is it right to project such a huge numbers and rate on the basis of such a small sample?
3. Is it right to take data from 5 years back and show and project it as current data and anaylsis?
4. Don’t the journalist have moral duty to give this important information,when quoting these numbers so the citizens can make an informed opinion on these topics?
5. Does the policymakers of Pakistan make policy on such a small sample size?
6. Do they even know the source and the sample size of the different social and economic indicators of the country on whose basis they make policies for Pakistan?

Next time,when you read an article, quoting stats, take it with a grain of salt.


P.S: I am not a social scientist or statistician.So,if you find any mistakes in writing or my research,don't hesitate to point it out.

 

[PAKjunoon]

Bump!

 

[PAKjunoon]

Another interesting thing to note is that "Demographic and Health Surveys" program which is the basis of almost all the data and social-economic indicators projected by UN is funded by USAID.

And the "Demographic and Health Surveys" only surveys Asian,African and South American countries leaving out Eurpe and America.

And these same countries surveyed by "Demographic and Health Surveys" program always shows poor performance on all social-economic indicators as compared to non-survey North American and European countries.

Coincidence or Conspiracy?

 

[protest]

This is a standard they use in all countries not an exception of Pakistan.

 

[PAKjunoon]

This is a standard they use in all countries not an exception of Pakistan.

Then the standard is very misleading!

I was always under the assupmtion the stats were based on atleast 10% sample of population.
If it is informed to the public that the sample size is not even 1% , tell me how many will believe it or take it seriously??

And in North America and Europe the sample size is larger and the social-Economic Indicators are based on multiple studies.

 

[protest]

Then the standard is very misleading!

I was always under the assupmtion the stats were based on atleast 10% sample of population.
If it is informed to the public that the sample size is not even 1% , tell me how many will believe it or take it seriously??

And in North America and Europe the sample size is larger and the social-Economic Indicators are based on multiple studies.

Its the GOP that needs to do the survey and extend the results to these multilateral agencies. Unfortunately most governments doesn't give out those numbers out themselves which show them in bad light. So they merrily follow what is put out by these agencies.