Irfan Baloch
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Please discuss
Will Pakistan Do the unthinkable?
Will Pakistan Do the unthinkable?
This Table will Hurt Much But is needed for "Constructive" Talk
- Thread starter Irfan Baloch
- Start date
Dr. Strangelove
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@Irfan Baloch this thread will turn out to be a troll infestation u should ask mods to be here in that case
or else u should move it to senior section for debate
or else u should move it to senior section for debate
truthseeker2010
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fourth one is the most likely............
Ray_of_Hope
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The third option is the most favourable to Pakistan and i think Pakistan military will be looking for that kind of scenario in case of a full conventional attack by India
unbiasedopinion
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I only found first two line items sane (not because they are in favor India but because it talk sense), the 3rd point started getting funny in terms of language and the 4th is totally giving me funny bone. Really Somali Pirates? Why do you think they willl occupy India rather than pakistan which is much closer? After all both are countries will be nuclear waste? What about Srilanka? Dont you think they will also claim the booty from Indian land mass? oh, you missed your brother Afghanistan too. They too want to take avenge from Pakistan and India too.
PlanetWarrior
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Yeah the fourth one is the most hilarious. Whoever drafted that needs a head check. Apparently Somali Pirates and Bangladeshi villagers are immune to nuke radiation. The stupidity of it all is that there are still some Pakistanis (hopefully not a majority of that population but heck who am I to guestimate for them) who believe that Pakistan will still exist after a nuke war with India
halupridol
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'patriot Indian net force' nice one
SpArK
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Yeah the fourth one is the most hilarious. Whoever drafted that needs a head check. Apparently Somali Pirates and Bangladeshi villagers are immune to nuke radiation. The stupidity of it all is that there are still some Pakistanis (hopefully not a majority of that population but heck who am I to guestimate for them) who believe that Pakistan will still exist after a nuke war with India
Its a table based more about missile strikes and nuclear missiles strikes.
One only needs to check how much is the distance from Indian border to all major cities on the other sides...
Some are in rocket ranges ....and the table made me laugh out loud.
Saiful Islam
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Honestly it is hard to tell what will happen/who will win if a full out war happens...The war will affect so many different parts of the subcontinent. Invading Pakistani landmass will also mean affecting Afghanistan. The Afghanis will not be stationary.
Just a thought.
Just a thought.
While it may seem gleeful, it also shows that due to this proximity, any nuclear fallout is to effect India badly as well depending upon the prevailing winds. Still, this subject is not to be discussed if idiotic jingoism is to be kept in mind. The reality of the subject is far more sobering for both sides to imagine.
A minor correction you might want to make.
In your third point once the 'in case indian missiles launch are detected against Pakistan cities" scenario, It is assumed missiles been launched are nuclear missiles. Which they will be. MAD is already assured. Your fourth point is not needed .
Secondly you might want to replace Pakistan with Islamists. Because any patriot Pakistani who cares for the existence and growth of his country will shy away from using nukes and prefer to live to fight another day. After all one might die for one's country but to sacrifice ones country out of spite towards a neighbouring country is suicidal mentality more identified with Jihadist and Islamists.
On the other hand, 'Pakistanis' will put money where their mouth is and retaliate massively using their conventional army. Give it all. Resist as long as possible and involve international community to mobilise opinion against India and its hegemonic ambitions. etc. etc.
In your third point once the 'in case indian missiles launch are detected against Pakistan cities" scenario, It is assumed missiles been launched are nuclear missiles. Which they will be. MAD is already assured. Your fourth point is not needed .
Secondly you might want to replace Pakistan with Islamists. Because any patriot Pakistani who cares for the existence and growth of his country will shy away from using nukes and prefer to live to fight another day. After all one might die for one's country but to sacrifice ones country out of spite towards a neighbouring country is suicidal mentality more identified with Jihadist and Islamists.
On the other hand, 'Pakistanis' will put money where their mouth is and retaliate massively using their conventional army. Give it all. Resist as long as possible and involve international community to mobilise opinion against India and its hegemonic ambitions. etc. etc.
Capt.Popeye
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The Table may seem funny. And what I really like about @Irfan Baloch is that, that he can package a serious topic in some funny wrapping.
However there is nothing funny about Nuclear War etc. etc. And those "great minds" who think that it is viable; will finally only become the objects of derisive laughter!
So let me
right away now.....Idiots who argue that all of India needs to be hit or that all of Pakistan need to be hit for a critical hit are.. well idiots. For the US and USSR it made sense to cover such large areas and hence have the large amount of warheads they have. Considering the geography of India and Pakistan, population centres and the strength of the state to respond to(in terms of disaster management and recovery) .. Pakistan will always need MORE nuclear weapons than India to ENSURE that the Indian state is unable to ever return to normalcy or continue as a single cohesive entity. It is that calculation that goes into the number of nuclear weapons you keep, not exacting in sq km of the entire geographical mass of the country.
Pakistan on the other hand is the target of 20 to 25 odd strikes on its major population centres to essentially end the state of Pakistan. Again, this will NOT stop nuclear warheads from being lobbed at India till they run out...but Pakistan will cease to exist as a state.
Wiki has a rather good article on the effects of nuclear explosions. Effects of nuclear explosions - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lets look at a different angle, from the views of a limited nuclear conflagration. Same limited number of bombs are lobbed at each other and then nations decide to back off under international and internal pressure/shock: There was a study carried out jointly by a US Environmental NGO known as NRDC along with professors at Princeton..so the credentials of the study should be pretty well acceptable. I will only paste the excerpts relevant to the post.
Zia Mian - The Program on Science and Global Security
M.V. Ramana - The Program on Science and Global Security
Abdul Hameed Nayyar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
They have only targeted the Northwestern Indian cities due to their understanding of Pakistan's nuclear attack capabilities. Considering the study is now 13 years old and the capabilities of both nations are much more advanced and thorough.. it cannot be taken as but a reflection of a likely scenario. Their take on the results of a limited nuclear exchange of 24 ground explosions is as follows.
For the second scenario, we calculated the fallout patterns and casualties for a hypothetical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in which each country targeted major cities. We chose target cities throughout Pakistan and in northwestern India to take into account the limited range of Pakistani missiles or aircraft. The target cities, listed in the table below, include the capitals of Islamabad and New Dehli, and large cities, such as Karachi and Bombay. In this scenario, we assumed that a dozen, 25-kiloton warheads would be detonated as ground bursts in Pakistan and another dozen in India, producing substantial fallout.
.........
NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
Most Indians (99 percent of the population) and Pakistanis (93 percent of the population) would survive the second scenario. Their respective military forces would be still be intact to continue and even escalate the conflict.
Study:NRDC: The Consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan
The last line is an interesting point to note. That even with such major attacks, both India and Pakistan are seen as continuing to survive the conflict and still attacking each other(this bears hints to the Sunderji doctrine and brasstacks with its practising NBC warfare). The study naturally states it well that while India will lose more people, it accounts for a lesser percentage of the population than Pakistan.
One thing to note however is that while the NRDC believed that both states would continue with the "limited" scenario, I have my doubts regarding Pakistan. The reason for this is that the NRDC study was carried out in 2001 during a relativly stable government and very little impact of terrorism and extremism in Pakistan. Today there is a lot more polarization along with sectarian and ethnic strife that may lead to "warlords" coming out in the open to declare war within Pakistan within a few years of a limited yet devastating nuclear strike.
Which brings us back to why 200 warheads. This scenario is well understood by the Pakistani state and hence the focus is more and more on sending a covert overt message to the other side that any future conflict will no longer be limited. Pakistan is willing and able to commit suicide rather than die a horrible slow death. With more developed delivery systems with greater range to target all but the farthest of Indian cities, Pakistan will ensure that the devastation to India and Indian ecology is sufficient enough to .. rather dismally.. ensure a horrible life for the surviving Indian state and its people. Again, it is VERY likely that even in this all out conflict most of Indian and Pakistani population will survive.
But you dont need 2000 to have a very damaging or fatal effect on the Indian state. Just enough to kill a substantial number of the population. And then again, there are various studies which show exactly how even a "limited" conflict will result in a disaster which plays not one year, not five year.. but will plague the subcontinent, China, the Middle east...and Central Asia for decades to come.
Five Millions Tons of Smoke in the Stratosphere | Nuclear Darkness & Nuclear Famine
Pakistan on the other hand is the target of 20 to 25 odd strikes on its major population centres to essentially end the state of Pakistan. Again, this will NOT stop nuclear warheads from being lobbed at India till they run out...but Pakistan will cease to exist as a state.
Wiki has a rather good article on the effects of nuclear explosions. Effects of nuclear explosions - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lets look at a different angle, from the views of a limited nuclear conflagration. Same limited number of bombs are lobbed at each other and then nations decide to back off under international and internal pressure/shock: There was a study carried out jointly by a US Environmental NGO known as NRDC along with professors at Princeton..so the credentials of the study should be pretty well acceptable. I will only paste the excerpts relevant to the post.
Zia Mian - The Program on Science and Global Security
M.V. Ramana - The Program on Science and Global Security
Abdul Hameed Nayyar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
They have only targeted the Northwestern Indian cities due to their understanding of Pakistan's nuclear attack capabilities. Considering the study is now 13 years old and the capabilities of both nations are much more advanced and thorough.. it cannot be taken as but a reflection of a likely scenario. Their take on the results of a limited nuclear exchange of 24 ground explosions is as follows.
For the second scenario, we calculated the fallout patterns and casualties for a hypothetical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in which each country targeted major cities. We chose target cities throughout Pakistan and in northwestern India to take into account the limited range of Pakistani missiles or aircraft. The target cities, listed in the table below, include the capitals of Islamabad and New Dehli, and large cities, such as Karachi and Bombay. In this scenario, we assumed that a dozen, 25-kiloton warheads would be detonated as ground bursts in Pakistan and another dozen in India, producing substantial fallout.
.........
NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
Most Indians (99 percent of the population) and Pakistanis (93 percent of the population) would survive the second scenario. Their respective military forces would be still be intact to continue and even escalate the conflict.
Study:NRDC: The Consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan
The last line is an interesting point to note. That even with such major attacks, both India and Pakistan are seen as continuing to survive the conflict and still attacking each other(this bears hints to the Sunderji doctrine and brasstacks with its practising NBC warfare). The study naturally states it well that while India will lose more people, it accounts for a lesser percentage of the population than Pakistan.
One thing to note however is that while the NRDC believed that both states would continue with the "limited" scenario, I have my doubts regarding Pakistan. The reason for this is that the NRDC study was carried out in 2001 during a relativly stable government and very little impact of terrorism and extremism in Pakistan. Today there is a lot more polarization along with sectarian and ethnic strife that may lead to "warlords" coming out in the open to declare war within Pakistan within a few years of a limited yet devastating nuclear strike.
Which brings us back to why 200 warheads. This scenario is well understood by the Pakistani state and hence the focus is more and more on sending a covert overt message to the other side that any future conflict will no longer be limited. Pakistan is willing and able to commit suicide rather than die a horrible slow death. With more developed delivery systems with greater range to target all but the farthest of Indian cities, Pakistan will ensure that the devastation to India and Indian ecology is sufficient enough to .. rather dismally.. ensure a horrible life for the surviving Indian state and its people. Again, it is VERY likely that even in this all out conflict most of Indian and Pakistani population will survive.
But you dont need 2000 to have a very damaging or fatal effect on the Indian state. Just enough to kill a substantial number of the population. And then again, there are various studies which show exactly how even a "limited" conflict will result in a disaster which plays not one year, not five year.. but will plague the subcontinent, China, the Middle east...and Central Asia for decades to come.
Five Millions Tons of Smoke in the Stratosphere | Nuclear Darkness & Nuclear Famine
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