The United States lost the trade war Trump started with China

[dbc]

You are a funny man. You quote Moody's and rating agencies that gave AAA rating to MBS and CDS, the very instruments that led to the collapse.
The entire rating system is a farce and we know it. Even the audit functions give a false sense of rigor. And yes Millions lost their livelihoods, their 401Ks lost value et al. Some losses were higher than others, but millions were impacted:

"The collapse of the housing market during the Great Recession displaced close to 10 million Americans as rising unemployment led to mass foreclosures.1 In 2008 alone, 3.1 million Americans filed for foreclosure, which at the time was one in every 54 homes, according to CNN Money.2 The demise not only ruined the American Dream but increased skepticism among the younger generation that had yet to enter the housing market."

How the 2008 Housing Crash Affected the American Dream

The housing collapse of 2008 has all but ended the American Dream.

www.investopedia.com

.

what does the reluctance of younger generations to own a home have to do with the performance of the American economy? pre recession home ownership rate was 67% in 2020 it’s 66%......historic peak in 1990 was 69%.

So a 1% decline in home ownership is the end of the American dream? Really?


from your source. Your argument that the US did not recover from the 2008 recession is debunked by your own source.
please don‘t waste your time formulating a rebuttal- I don’t think this discussion is going anywhere.

As the housing market stabilized and prices began to climb, skepticism remained. By the second quarter of 2016, the All-Transactions House Price Index had surpassed the pre-crisis high

 

[TigerOfMysore]

what does the reluctance of younger generations to own a home have to do with the performance of the American economy? pre recession it was 67% in 2020 it’s 66%......historic peak in 1990 was 69%.

So a 1% decline in home ownership is the end of the American dream? Really?


from your source. Your argument that the US did not recover from the 2008 recession is debunked by your own source.
please don‘t waste your time formulating a rebuttal- I don’t think this discussion is going anywhere.

As the housing market stabilized and prices began to climb, skepticism remained. By the second quarter of 2016, the All-Transactions House Price Index had surpassed the pre-crisis high

Agreed no rebuttal warranted. Your command over economics and the manifest destiny of the US is unblemished and superior. I have learned a lot from your counter points. Thank you.

However I will leave you with you with a few quotes from your own cited Washington Post article:
***Still, the recovery has not buoyed all consumers equally. Many workers have struggled to land jobs that paid as well as the positions they had before the recession. That shift, combined with the time spent out of work and other drops in productivity since the crisis, has led to a loss of about $70,000 in lifetime income for every American, according to an estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. At the end of 2017, 4.4 million homeowners were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they owed more than their homes were worth, according to the real estate company Zillow.***

Remember my point was always: that the US Housing crisis impacted many Americans, who suffered wage losses, foreclosures, 401K losses, and unemployment. So yes the Fed came out whole, the Federal Government more or less came out whole (though I would argue the FG has to deal with its deficits and debt), but the American people lost a lot. On a per-capita basis Americans lost $70,000 per person, in lifetime earnings due to the crisis. US has rebounded but it is scarred, and the fundamental issues that got the US here, still exist in the institutional structures and compensation programs. Banks remain too unregulated, they remain too complex, and they remain too big to fail. Combine this with deficit spending and you are looking at another collapse that is inevitable.

 

[Han Patriot]

Of course the US lost the war..a YoY decline of 67 Billion USD in Chinese imports ..

Yes the US lost big time ..all hail mighty China

“The trade war has had a more enduring negative impact [on Chinese imports] than the pandemic,” said Adam Slater, the lead economist for Oxford Economics. “The effects of the pandemic are starting to wear off, but the longer-term impact of the trade war remains.”

WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Tariffs Drive Drop in Chinese Imports

U.S. tariffs have led to a sharp decline in imports from China and significant changes in the types of goods Americans buy from China, new data show, with purchases of furniture, telecommunications gear, apparel and other goods shifting to other countries.

www.wsj.com

Apparently you don't understand how economics work. The surplus increased even though the exports dropped. Why do you think that's the case. If tarriffs was the solution, then there would be no world trade, understand? Look at India, with the most tarriffs, did it help India? Your consumers pay more for the same quality of goods.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Even if US and China completely cut off trade and diplomacy, both will have good relations with EU and trade with EU. EU will be the benefactor enjoy best products for US and China.

 

[dbc]

The surplus increased even though the exports dropped.

Did you even bother to read what I posted? the numbers I posted is for items targeted by trade tariffs such as telecommunications equipment, metal alloys, semiconductors and electrical apparatus— purchased by businesses.

 

[ARMalik]

Only time will tell who will be the eventual winner of all this. Right now, US does not look in a good shape. But then, looks can often be deceiving.

 

[Han Patriot]

US Imports 2019 = 3.11 Trillion Dollars
US Imports 2020 = 2.87 Trillion Dollars

a decline of 24 billions dollars mostly due to low oil prices and COVID.

Chinese exports rose because of COVID in 2020 that pot of gold is fast depleting.
the decline of 67 billion $ in Chinese imports is offset by an increase in US imports from Vietnam, Japan, India, S Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Bangladesh.

The trend will accelerate projected to hit 147 billion $ this year tariffs are forcing more companies to leave China.The EU is considering emulating the US, US treasury collected 61 billion in Chinese tariffs since the trade war began and the EU want some of that action as well.

Exports just get rerouted.

Did you even bother to read what I posted? the numbers I posted is for items targeted by trade tariffs such as telecommunications equipment, metal alloys, semiconductors and electrical apparatus— purchased by businesses.

It doesn't matter, the goods would be rerouted and reexported or sold loose and assembled some where else, either way, US does not gain hence the surplus still. Increased for China regardless of whether it was tarriffed or untarrifed.

 

[beijingwalker]

If US didn't lose the trade war against China as some claimed here, then who lost this US initiated trad war? China?

 

[Han Patriot]

If US didn't lose the trade war against China as some claimed here, then who lost this US initiated trad war? China?

According to the cheerleaders, US won. Lololol

 

[VCheng]

I will agree with both your points. US has an open society that is given to self correction. And one hopes they can go through this process and self-correct. The mistake US has made in the last few decades is the belief that they will remain a uni-power in the world. That mindset built a ton of hubris in their policy makers. This led to dumb moves in Afghanistan and Iraq and other places. This hubris also leads them to this mindset that they cannot accept an equal. That is just plain dumb thinking. US needs to find how it works in a non-adversarial way in a world where there are multiple great powers. I hope the US finds a way to compete through its own innovation and strength of character and culture. That is where the US strength lies not its military. By giving the US military an over-sized role, the US finds nails all over the world to hammer. The military industrial complex of the US though overtly seems to be its strength, I would argue is a long term liability on so many different levels. Unfortunately the US of recent years is relegated to some third rate pirate mindset country that sees every objection, a nail to beat down. That is not sustainable for the US and it will fail, against the head-wind of a world that will stiffen its resolve. In large measure China is an example of it as are others.

There is no mistake here. USA quickly realized after the Cold War that it had only a short window during which it was the sole superpower before others would rise to challenge it, and thus moved quickly in several areas to consolidate its lead. There is no pirate mindset either, just a endless pursuit of things bigger and better. The military is just another tool in the pursuit of national interests, and nothing more.

Chinese demographic bomb is a factor you rightfully point out, that can cause issues. I think China will undertake two steps in this. One they'll open themselves to immigration and become a more inviting system. They have already started this (small steps): through their efforts in Hong Kong and mainland China by attracting some of the best minds from around the world in science and technology. I see them doing more of this. Secondly as you are aware they have loosened the child limit. Though I do agree it will be interesting to see how they navigate this challenge. I am confident they will manage.

Allowing a few tens of thousands of brilliant minds is never going to make an impact in the demographic time bomb, and China will never open itself up to freer immigration to the extent required, being the historically closed society that it always has been, is, and will remain. It will have to deal with a rapidly falling worker:retiree ratio, with all its consequences, and pretty soon. Their loosened policies regarding the number of children may make only a small impact, but again not to the extent required. Its biggest straitjacket will remain the communist party and its firm grip on power to the exclusion of all else.

 

[dbc]

Numb numb, exports just get rerouted.
It doesn't matter, the goods would be rerouted and reexported or sold loose and assembled some where else, either way, US does not gain hence the surplus still. Increased for China regardless of whether it was tarriffed or untarrifed.

COVID related non-tariff exports to the US surged in 2020. This is the reason you don’t see a material impact in US trade deficit. Unless China is planning a new pandemic every year US imports from China will decline.

repackage ..reexport?
You don’t know much about CBP and US controls around country of origin do you?
did you know the US has CBP attachés in US Embassies overseas - why do you think that is?

 

[Han Patriot]

COVID related non-tariff exports to the US surged in 2020. This is the reason you don’t see a material impact in US trade deficit. Unless China is planning a new pandemic every year US imports from China will decline.

repackage ..reexport?
You don’t know much about CBP and US controls around country of origin do you?
did you know the US has CBP attachés in US Embassies overseas - why do you think that is?

Covid related? So computers are covid related, television, ships, all covid related right? Lololol

 

[dbc]

Covid related? So computers are covid related, television, ships, all covid related right? Lololol

of course, post COVID do you know how many Americans now work from home?
home office equipment purchase is non-tariff imports.

Computer monitors and other work-at-home essentials are in big demand in the coronavirus era

Work-from-home products like monitors and computers are flying off the shelves at Staples and Best Buy as more companies and students are told to stay home.

fortune.com

 

[TigerOfMysore]

of course, post COVID do you know how many Americans now work from home?
home office equipment purchase is non-tariff imports.

Computer monitors and other work-at-home essentials are in big demand in the coronavirus era

Work-from-home products like monitors and computers are flying off the shelves at Staples and Best Buy as more companies and students are told to stay home.

fortune.com

There is also a massive digitization of everything that is resulting in chip shortage. Covid has also changed how people work and entertain themselves - that has spiked demand.

 

[Han Patriot]

of course, post COVID do you know how many Americans now work from home?
home office equipment purchase is non-tariff imports.

Computer monitors and other work-at-home essentials are in big demand in the coronavirus era

Work-from-home products like monitors and computers are flying off the shelves at Staples and Best Buy as more companies and students are told to stay home.

fortune.com

That still doesn't answer the question of whether US surplus against the world decreased? What about industries moving back to the states? Yada Yada Yada, the goods were redirected as predicted, Chinese exports to Vietnam actually increased. Hahahahah, only an idiot could not see the full picture.