The Truth about Gwadar

[melb4aust]

-The relocation of Sialkots Sports and Surgical goods industry to Gwadar.

Are you sure about this, where did you read that, i am originally from Sialkot and know quite a number of exporters there, few of them are actually my class fellows. i've never hear about it. Infact they are bulding the biggest international airport of Pakistan for all these kind of things as they badly need it right now!!! and how come relocate everything in GAWADAR and it cost lot of money$$$ as well.

 

[sparten]

How about this, we will have a secure foothold in the middle east, right on the mouth of the gulf? Remembering that west of the Indus is mid east rather then South Asia.

And its more feasible then Dubai, why travel on for two more days when you can off load at Gwader?

 

[RAPTOR]

Are you sure about this, where did you read that, i am originally from Sialkot and know quite a number of exporters there, few of them are actually my class fellows. i've never hear about it. Infact they are bulding the biggest international airport of Pakistan for all these kind of things as they badly need it right now!!! and how come relocate everything in GAWADAR and it cost lot of money$$$ as well.

Partial relocation / Expansion.


The reason is indian artillery firings on Sialkot in the past damaged some infrastructure and killed a lot of innocent civilians.So the Sialkot Chamber of Commerce wants to at least have one foot in Gwadar for the sports and surgical industries. Kinda like the leather goods industry that was shifted to Karachi in the 80's.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The reason is indian artillery firings on Sialkot in the past damaged some infrastructure and killed a lot of innocent civilians.So the Sialkot Chamber of Commerce wants to at least have one foot in Gwadar for the sports and surgical industries. Kinda like the leather goods industry that was shifted to Karachi in the 80's.

A rather plausible reason!

So wars are to be fought like the ancient times on predesignated battlefields where there is no infrastructure or population?

What has civilians in wars got to do with industry bolting into the blue?

Keep to logic and sanity!

Why can't you keep to the facts and not bring in irrelevant mental quirks/ deficiencies into a post?

I will be a trifle obtuse since you seem to an odd fish compared to the remainder posters.

Pray, have the "innocent" civilians also been relocated? Or are they keeping one foot in Sialkot and the other foot in Karaachi/ Gwadar? I mean the "not so innocent" civilians in Sialkot and the "innocent" ones in Karachi/ Gwadar?

 

[Bull]

And its more feasible then Dubai, why travel on for two more days when you can off load at Gwader?

If hostilities breaks out between US and Iran, what sort of transhipment business will you deal in?

• Middle east would be a no-go area as the risk premium is going to shoot up and shipping companies would be reluctant to send their ships in there.
  
• So Gwadar would have to depend on the non - middle eastern trade for survival.

Now which all ports can Gwadar feed through the transhipment service ?

• India, yes. The ports in India are clogged and would definily love to see a transhipment terminal close by.(Politics aside, it serves a lot of economic purpose)
  
• China, Not now. The Rail - Road connectivity is not yet ready to do any meaningfull business.
  
• Central Asia, Not now.As with China the connectivity is not there.

India has Colombo as a transhipment terminal on the south eastern side which can take care of the eastern Indian ports.

Western ports dont have any transhipment port yet, but there is one coming up in Cochin which might be ready by 2009.

So if everything goes accordng to plan, a lot of the India's transhipment business will move to Cochin by 2009 and by then Pakistan should have the connectivity with China and more importantly with central Asia ready.

 

[Neo]

Bull,

Though you have valid points its worth mentioning that Pakistan is not a trading nation yet, we're a growing consumer market instead.

So the survivalibilty of Gwadar doesn't fully depend on transit trade, its rather 'a nice to have' option which can be optimised in later stage.

Karachi and Port Qasim are expending for same reason and plans have been revealed to build a fourth mega port in near future.
All this is to accomodate growing national consumer market. Oil for one is imported in great quantity. Pakistan would be consuming approx 351 million ton of oil by 2030, most of it will run thru Gwadar.

 

[Bull]

So the survivalibilty of Gwadar doesn't fully depend on transit trade, its rather 'a nice to have' option which can be optimised in later stage.

These questions needed to be answered.

• Whats the estimated cost of Gwadar development?
  
• How much of it has been funded by China, under what conditions?
  
• Whats the trade that Karachi port does currenty?
  
• Whats the projected increase in trade yoy?

 

[Bull]

Cost of Developement Phase 1

• The Chinese government $198 million
• Pakistani government $50 million

Am i right?

KPT Volumes
Karachi Port Ship Handling Capacity)

• Year 2006 - 32 Mn tonnes

Pakistan Trade Figures

• Year 2005 - 51 mn tonnes
• Year 2015 ( exp) - 78 mn tonnes

For a expected growth rate of 5-6 %, and the planned expansion of KPT (?) how would you justify Gwadar with just domestic trade?

The above figures means that Gwadar needs to look into a share of Intl trade to be viable / to reach its potential.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Singapore port authority must have seen something, to buy the contract of this port.

 

[GOD OF WAR]

Dubai ANd Iran arnt too happy about Gawader either. its old news that these two countries dont want a new competitor, and that also a much stronger one. If we study ship routes coming in and out of the area, it is evident that it gives Gwadar an edge the other ports lack.

China is investing mega bucks mainly because it does not like the idea of transporting saudi oil from the trait of Mallaca which is heavily patrolled and influenced by the US Navy. The rationale being the if hostilities develop between China and US, China has no alternate route to get the oil it needs. I think that Saudi Oil feeds 15% of China's fossil fuel requirements, and its growing.

So until China improves it Naval lethality (which it is striving ery actively at) the Strait of Malaca is a death wish for China, therfore gwader comes into the picture

 

[Spring Onion]

Dubai ANd Iran arnt too happy about Gawader either. its old news that these two countries dont want a new competitor, and that also a much stronger one.

Indeed Iran is not abosrbing it lately even our neighbour was pressing her for Chahbahar port for countering Gwadar. US is also not hapy with the idea; we can well imagine its importance now its great the Pakistan had done a better job here refusing to bow to the trouble makers and if u look at it in details with just the progress on this mega project, the trouble started again.
but at the end its

 

[Bull]

Can anybody here help the discussion by bringing in some figures rather than speaking about politics.

 

[Neo]

Can anybody here help the discussion by bringing in some figures rather than speaking about politics.

Yes, lets do that.

 

[Bull]

Year 2005 - Trade Figures were 51 Mn

Its projected to be 78 Mn by 2015.

Which is a growth of around 4-5 % a year. Following that we can estimate the figures to be 53.55 Mn tonnes. Its estimated that around 95 % of Pakistans trade happens through Sea, which gets us to the figure of 51 Mn tonnes that was dealt by Sea ports.

This figure is almost accurate if you look at the volume handled by KPT and PQ.

In year 2006 KPT handled 32 Mn tonnes and Port Qasim handled 23 Mn tonnes. Both add upto 55 Mn tonnes.

 

[Neo]

Bull,

Where did you get these figs from and what is the projected growth for 2020?
Economic growth is projected to be around 8% in next 5Y plan, I don't have figs beyond 2013 yet.