The Saudi National Security Center: An academic approach to the formulation of the national secur

[The SC]

Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz has issued a decree to establish a national security center linked to the Royal Court and to create a post in the office with the title of the National Security Adviser to head the center. The Saudi monarch decided to appoint Mohammed bin Saleh al-Ghafili as national security adviser.

Saudi Arabia has decided the designation of this institution as "the National Security Center", while some other countries adopt a different name, such as "the National Security Council". The name is related to the structure of the institution and the nature of its work. The objectives of these institutions remain to provide the best recommendations to the decision maker on adopting the best methods to achieve the objectives of the national security strategy with available means, in addition to providing periodic review of the analysis, assessment and management of the risks associated with them.

National Security Strategy

The National Security Center aims to ensure harmony and complementarity among institutions and agencies concerned with achieving the objectives of the national security strategy and participating in its formulation. The national security strategy of each state includes a clear and specific description of the following:

- National interests within the state and around the world, goals and objectives vital to the national security of the state.

- Global foreign policy commitments, and defense capabilities to deter attacks and to implement the national security strategy.

- Purposeful uses of national political, military and economic power tools for the protection and dissemination of the interests of the State and for the achievement of the objectives set out in the Strategy.

- Adapting national capacities to implement the national security strategy, as well as assessing the balance between these capacities to support this strategy.

- Any other information that may be necessary to inform their stakeholders of issues related to the national security strategy.

National interests

The national interests of any country revolve around the security of the homeland and the protection of the region and the people in order to ensure the survival and protection of the system, economic prosperity to ensure the prosperity of the state and the dissemination of the basic values and principles of the state. The decision-maker plays a prominent role in determining which of these interests is the most important in his political vision, and helps him to define his political priorities. The lack of clarity in the order of priorities leads to the possibility of the emergence of infinite goals and of the disproportionality between objectives and resources, which are often limited. The importance of interests can be determined by what happens if they are not achieved?

• Vital and their lack of achievement has immediate implications for national interests.
• Important and their lack of achievement leads to damage that in turn affects national interests.
• Superficial and the failure to achieve them leads to harm that is unlikely to affect national interests.

Objectives, means and methods of national security strategy

The national security strategy is adopted and formulated through a context based on the concept of objective-methods-means.

• Objectives: The national interests translate into the objectives of the major strategy.
• Methods: The methods are based on the strategic vision of the role of the state and determined by the decision maker.
• Means: Major strategic means include national power tools, diplomatic, economic, military and media tools. A critical consideration is how to use national power to achieve the core objectives. A distinction can be made between hard power tools based on the use of military power tools and soft power tools based on national non-military power tools.

Risk Management

Risk assessment and management is the most important step in the context of strategy formulation. Risk is defined as the degree of imbalance between objectives, methods and means. Since the formulation of the strategy is a dynamic context of three variables, risk assessment becomes the constant effort to identify and correct the imbalance between these variables. This requires the ability to know when variables change, and how can the remaining variables be corrected to rebalance the triangle?
The decision maker often finds himself faced with several possible actions and has to choose among them to achieve the goals he seeks. The leader must make his decision and determine the work that he considers the safest and most appropriate to achieve victory.

The options available are:

- Adjustment of objectives: When the cost of achieving a goal is very high or when the ability to influence the center of gravity is limited, it is necessary to reduce the goals to more realistic goals.

- Modification of means: The increase or redeployment of resources can affect the ability to implement the strategy and achieve objectives. The means include national power tools (political, economic, military, information). It also includes unexpected and changing elements.

- Modifying Methods: As objectives are realistic and resources are adequate, there will be several methods to achieve these goals. The use of variable templates for different national power tools and a preference to use one versus the other can increase the ability to achieve the same objectives.


Risk assessment and management patterns

To know which amendments should be adopted? The NSC relies on five risk assessment models. These patterns help to understand the dynamic relationship between goals. Means and resources:

• The objectives are medium and the means are unlimited: in this case the strategy of direct threat is adopted. Nuclear deterrence is a model.
• The objectives are medium and the means are limited: indirect pressure pattern is useful when freedom of movement is limited. This pattern emphasizes the preference for the use of national economic and diplomatic instruments at the expense of direct military action. The strategy of the Soviet Union is similar to the avoidance of the direct use of military force in the conflict with the United States.
• The objectives are important, the methods and the means are limited (low freedom of movement): a combination of direct threat and indirect pressure applied in successive actions and reflecting the strategy of indirect approach, which fits Strong defensive nations but limited in resources.
  
• The objectives are important (Unlimited freedom of action) and inappropriate means: The strategy of long-term wars reflects a low level of military action and is very similar to the current US military situation in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• The objectives are important and the means are unlimited: the traditional style characterized by violent struggle for military victory. This classic neo-Napoleonic style is similar to that of the US administration in planning the Iraq war.

With these five strategic patterns, seven approaches can be identified - options that management can adopt to restore balance to the strategic equation when it is dysfunctional:

• Removal of waste (modification of methods and means).
• Removal of waste (modification of methods or means).
  
• Goal reduction (goal modification).
• Increased resources (Modification of means).
• Reducing goals and increasing means (adjusting objectives and means).
• The trick (to mislead the enemy around targets, methods, means).
• Eliminate some goals (last modification of goals).

Risk assessment and management is inherently inaccurate. The skill and genius of the strategic planner lies in its ability to calculate and recognize possible changes in time for the adjustments needed to rebalance the strategic equation, ensuring that efforts are reoriented towards the final political goals.


Arab National Security