grey boy 2
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The PRC at 60 and East Asia region
Jusuf Wanandi , Jakarta | Tue, 09/29/2009 1:14 PM
When asked at the East West Center's senior policy seminar held in Hawaii in August about how Southeast Asia was reacting to China's development, security policies and diplomacy, I answered that in general, we had been quite satisfied with China's policies toward East Asia.
This is because China has shown itself to be a status quo power and not a revisionist one. She has abided by the rules, norms and institutions that prevail in the region and the world. She is not a revolutionary power that intends to take over the world.
However, there are two policies that will have an impact on the region and the world. One is nationalism and patriotism that appear to be cultivated by China's leaders in place of declining adherence and belief in communism.
This is understandable, but sometimes the line between nationalism and extreme nationalism or chauvinism is blurred and this sentiment could trigger negative reactions, especially against foreigners.
This is also happening in other societies, e.g. the way some Indonesians reacted toward Malaysia's repeated claims of Indonesia's cultural and artistic heritage, which was driven by the same kind of irrationality that could endanger regional relations and stability.
China is a big country, especially in the regional context, and therefore needs to be very careful about using and fostering these sentiments so that they do not get out of hand. In ancient history, other countries in the region were fearful of China and this should not be repeated in the future.
The other is China's reactions toward criticism in handling incidents in Tibet and Xinqiang. China should not over-react as it initially did toward Tibet prior to the Olympics.
In these incidents China's sovereignty over those regions was not in question. The problem for China is to find a modus vivendi with the Tibetans and Uighurs by recognizing their religions and customs and providing them with the right opportunities. This is of course a sensitive issue and China has to handle it with finesse and nuance (soft power). Chinese reactions have already improved in Xinqiang, but they need to be more restrained and balanced in the future.
East Asians recognize China's sovereignty of Tibet and Xinqiang as well as of Taiwan. They have had their own experiences, such as the problem of Papua for Indonesia, that enable them to understand China's sensitivities. Others might not have this understanding and we can share our perspective and experience with other countries.
China is an active member in regional organizations such as APEC, ARF, APT and EAS. This demonstrates her willingness to maintain stability, peace and development and work multilaterally with others in the region.
She is a new actor on the global stage and the challenge for her to be a global "stakeholder" is also new. However, she is catching up as shown in the handling of issues such as Darfur, Iran and Palestine.
At the regional level, she is playing an important role in the North Korean nuclear issue through the six party talks and is willing to support UNSC sanctions on North Korea. To a large extent, China has stabilized relations with Taiwan and in general has increased her relations with Taiwan in the economic and political field, and also gradually in the security field.
China's relations with ASEAN have been good, with a lot of initiatives coming from China, including the idea of an FTA between China and ASEAN, which was supported by Japan and South Korea. An FTA for the entire East Asia and ASEAN is being contemplated.
China has agreed with ASEAN to establish a code of conduct on the overlapping claims to the South China Sea, but they have only managed to make an agreement on the principles of the code.
This is not good enough to ensure stability and peace in the maritime region of Southeast Asia. ASEAN should first have a unified position before negotiating with China.
China and ASEAN, together with Japan and South Korea, have to solve the problems of the two competing regional institutions for East Asia (ASEAN Plus Three and the East Asia Summit), which has hampered East Asian regionalism. As things stand now, both institutions are doing the same thing. This is redundant and counterproductive.
The best solution is for the ASEAN Plus Three to promote functional cooperation, including economic cooperation because the APT has developed the institutional foundation and has been doing so for more than a decade.
They should welcome participation by the other three (India, Australia and New Zealand) in certain activities if these countries are willing to do so. The EAS has to become a forum for strategic dialogue, including difficult security issues.
In this case, membership of the US is imperative as the US is a "resident power" in East Asia, in part through her alliances with Japan and South Korea.
The improvement in the relationship between China and Japan under a new PM (Hatoyama) and a new ruling party (DPJ) will make it possible for the above division of labor in East Asian regional arrangements to be agreed upon by both sides.
As the relationship between the US and China has been to a large extent stabilized, and can be expected to remain so in the future - because they do have an institution for regular biannual dialogues in the strategic and economic realms at the highest level - any possible misunderstandings can be alleviated, and both sides will be able to seek solutions on policy differences. This will not likely result in a G2 condominium, because that would be detrimental to their declared policies. However, this intensified dialogue forum is a useful instrument to consult and try out new ideas, as well as solve existing problems.
China's global stake is becoming a reality for her although for obvious reasons she rather would like to concentrate on domestic problems. The US and others in the region and globally, expect that China, despite her domestic priorities, will pay sufficient attention to global and regional public goods. The US can no longer do it alone as before, and China is slowly becoming another big power.
We do expect China to support the continuation of the G20, after the Pittsburg Summit, because the G7/8 is no more representative. Gradually the G20 should replace the G7/8 as the global steering committee as it is better equipped because of the support of the ministers of finance and governors of the central bank and other parts of the bureaucracy. The role of the East Asian G20 members should be encouraged in order to channel the views and aspirations from the region (APT and EAS) and to help shape the global institutions.
In conclusion, we could say that China has not only grown phenomenally in economic terms, but has also done very well in nurturing a team of experts, thinkers and bureaucrats, including diplomats, who are open minded and well-versed in their fields of expertise. That is why they have done well in implementing their soft power in general.
The one thing they should be aware of is the transparency of their defense policies and the correspondent increases in their defense budget, which have reached double digits over the last 12-13 years. China's White Book on Defense should provide more clarity about all these issues.
We understand that China started from a low base in her defense budget and capabilities and that she has thousands of kilometers of land and sea borders to defend. In addition, she is surrounded by 13 countries, some of which she still has unresolved border problems with.
But transparency is critical for her to become a trusted partner in the region. Beyond China's White Book on Defense, it is important to have regular dialogues, exchanges and consultations with other countries in the region. Confidence Building Measures (CBM) are vital for understanding and accepting China's position and policies in the region.
On her 60th anniversary, China should be proud of her achievements, not the least in becoming a trusted friend in East Asia that has immense potential to achieve the goals of an East Asian community. We wish her well.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/09/29/the-prc-60-and-east-asia-region.html
The writer is Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, at the CSIS Foundation.
Jusuf Wanandi , Jakarta | Tue, 09/29/2009 1:14 PM
When asked at the East West Center's senior policy seminar held in Hawaii in August about how Southeast Asia was reacting to China's development, security policies and diplomacy, I answered that in general, we had been quite satisfied with China's policies toward East Asia.
This is because China has shown itself to be a status quo power and not a revisionist one. She has abided by the rules, norms and institutions that prevail in the region and the world. She is not a revolutionary power that intends to take over the world.
However, there are two policies that will have an impact on the region and the world. One is nationalism and patriotism that appear to be cultivated by China's leaders in place of declining adherence and belief in communism.
This is understandable, but sometimes the line between nationalism and extreme nationalism or chauvinism is blurred and this sentiment could trigger negative reactions, especially against foreigners.
This is also happening in other societies, e.g. the way some Indonesians reacted toward Malaysia's repeated claims of Indonesia's cultural and artistic heritage, which was driven by the same kind of irrationality that could endanger regional relations and stability.
China is a big country, especially in the regional context, and therefore needs to be very careful about using and fostering these sentiments so that they do not get out of hand. In ancient history, other countries in the region were fearful of China and this should not be repeated in the future.
The other is China's reactions toward criticism in handling incidents in Tibet and Xinqiang. China should not over-react as it initially did toward Tibet prior to the Olympics.
In these incidents China's sovereignty over those regions was not in question. The problem for China is to find a modus vivendi with the Tibetans and Uighurs by recognizing their religions and customs and providing them with the right opportunities. This is of course a sensitive issue and China has to handle it with finesse and nuance (soft power). Chinese reactions have already improved in Xinqiang, but they need to be more restrained and balanced in the future.
East Asians recognize China's sovereignty of Tibet and Xinqiang as well as of Taiwan. They have had their own experiences, such as the problem of Papua for Indonesia, that enable them to understand China's sensitivities. Others might not have this understanding and we can share our perspective and experience with other countries.
China is an active member in regional organizations such as APEC, ARF, APT and EAS. This demonstrates her willingness to maintain stability, peace and development and work multilaterally with others in the region.
She is a new actor on the global stage and the challenge for her to be a global "stakeholder" is also new. However, she is catching up as shown in the handling of issues such as Darfur, Iran and Palestine.
At the regional level, she is playing an important role in the North Korean nuclear issue through the six party talks and is willing to support UNSC sanctions on North Korea. To a large extent, China has stabilized relations with Taiwan and in general has increased her relations with Taiwan in the economic and political field, and also gradually in the security field.
China's relations with ASEAN have been good, with a lot of initiatives coming from China, including the idea of an FTA between China and ASEAN, which was supported by Japan and South Korea. An FTA for the entire East Asia and ASEAN is being contemplated.
China has agreed with ASEAN to establish a code of conduct on the overlapping claims to the South China Sea, but they have only managed to make an agreement on the principles of the code.
This is not good enough to ensure stability and peace in the maritime region of Southeast Asia. ASEAN should first have a unified position before negotiating with China.
China and ASEAN, together with Japan and South Korea, have to solve the problems of the two competing regional institutions for East Asia (ASEAN Plus Three and the East Asia Summit), which has hampered East Asian regionalism. As things stand now, both institutions are doing the same thing. This is redundant and counterproductive.
The best solution is for the ASEAN Plus Three to promote functional cooperation, including economic cooperation because the APT has developed the institutional foundation and has been doing so for more than a decade.
They should welcome participation by the other three (India, Australia and New Zealand) in certain activities if these countries are willing to do so. The EAS has to become a forum for strategic dialogue, including difficult security issues.
In this case, membership of the US is imperative as the US is a "resident power" in East Asia, in part through her alliances with Japan and South Korea.
The improvement in the relationship between China and Japan under a new PM (Hatoyama) and a new ruling party (DPJ) will make it possible for the above division of labor in East Asian regional arrangements to be agreed upon by both sides.
As the relationship between the US and China has been to a large extent stabilized, and can be expected to remain so in the future - because they do have an institution for regular biannual dialogues in the strategic and economic realms at the highest level - any possible misunderstandings can be alleviated, and both sides will be able to seek solutions on policy differences. This will not likely result in a G2 condominium, because that would be detrimental to their declared policies. However, this intensified dialogue forum is a useful instrument to consult and try out new ideas, as well as solve existing problems.
China's global stake is becoming a reality for her although for obvious reasons she rather would like to concentrate on domestic problems. The US and others in the region and globally, expect that China, despite her domestic priorities, will pay sufficient attention to global and regional public goods. The US can no longer do it alone as before, and China is slowly becoming another big power.
We do expect China to support the continuation of the G20, after the Pittsburg Summit, because the G7/8 is no more representative. Gradually the G20 should replace the G7/8 as the global steering committee as it is better equipped because of the support of the ministers of finance and governors of the central bank and other parts of the bureaucracy. The role of the East Asian G20 members should be encouraged in order to channel the views and aspirations from the region (APT and EAS) and to help shape the global institutions.
In conclusion, we could say that China has not only grown phenomenally in economic terms, but has also done very well in nurturing a team of experts, thinkers and bureaucrats, including diplomats, who are open minded and well-versed in their fields of expertise. That is why they have done well in implementing their soft power in general.
The one thing they should be aware of is the transparency of their defense policies and the correspondent increases in their defense budget, which have reached double digits over the last 12-13 years. China's White Book on Defense should provide more clarity about all these issues.
We understand that China started from a low base in her defense budget and capabilities and that she has thousands of kilometers of land and sea borders to defend. In addition, she is surrounded by 13 countries, some of which she still has unresolved border problems with.
But transparency is critical for her to become a trusted partner in the region. Beyond China's White Book on Defense, it is important to have regular dialogues, exchanges and consultations with other countries in the region. Confidence Building Measures (CBM) are vital for understanding and accepting China's position and policies in the region.
On her 60th anniversary, China should be proud of her achievements, not the least in becoming a trusted friend in East Asia that has immense potential to achieve the goals of an East Asian community. We wish her well.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/09/29/the-prc-60-and-east-asia-region.html
The writer is Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, at the CSIS Foundation.
