The next big economy in Asia?

[TopCat]

Bangladesh will overtake all!

Just my gut feeling based on the posts I read.

Do you dispute anything in my post? BD could being a smaller country..

 

[UKBengali]

It will probably take 100 years for China or India to overtake per capita income of Japan. Japan will keep its position by providing knowlege base services to the billions in China and India and make the quality of life to its citizen even better. A prospersous India and China is good for whole world as it will add 2 more billion consumers.

Sorry but I would have to disagree with this.

Let us take the example of China and the US to try to explain why when a country as large as China or India becomes rich it could actually hurt other countries.

Ok, if we start with last year with the US as the largest economy and China second at around 40% of it's size at the then currency exchange rates. Now the US derives immense benefits from it's position as the world's number one power. It has managed to literally persuade, threathen and or bully most of the resources rich economies to use the US dollar as the reserve currency. This gives the US a "boost" in GDP that it would not have otherwise have. Just think why the US is so much richer than all other large developed economies like Japan and Germany. It is not all to do with greater natural resources or the US economic system. Also the US is able to sell highly expensive systems such as passenger planes and military hardware to some of it's "allies" without any real competition. For an example of this think back to when Singapore selected the F-15 over the more technogically advanced French Rafale. No doubt if the US was not a superpower then France would have got this deal.

If we now look ahead to year 2025. By then if current trends continue, the Chinese economy could be at least 50% LARGER than the US economy. What this will mean is that china will be in a good position to outspend the US militarily. If the Chinese wanted to they could field more aircraft carriers than the US. Of course this will mean that the US will no longer be a superpower and apart from the Europeans and maybe the Japanese, they would lose all the rest of their "allies". The US dollar will just be another currency and the US will have to fight it out for every single passenger plane sale with Airbus and COMAC.

With the US taking a large "economic hit", their allies such as the Europeans and Japanese will also be affected, but to a lesser extent.Now some people may not agree with me but I am convinced that the future of the Western world is bleak if the Chinese succeed in growing at a fast rate till 2025-2030 or so.

 

[Zeeshan360]

Why I remember even south Korea economy is bigger than india's?

SOuth Korea doesnt even has trillion dollar gdp

U failed troll

 

[MiloMayor]

The country that has most of the opportunity in South Asia after India is Srilanka. Even thought its economy is small compared to other countries now, it has the huge scope. Reasons

Positive points
=========

1) Small country with a small population
2) High Literacy rate and English speaking population.
3) Civil war is over
4) Huge Intellectual diaspora
5) Government willingness to open the economy
6) No military spending needed
7) Stable country
8) Great Tourism destination with huge potential
9) Good relations with India/China - Many Indian companies are investing
10)Transparent governance (Business) with less corruption.
11) Good infrastructure - Ports, Airport, Roads

Negatives
======
1)Need to integrate the Tamils in the society by rehabilitating them, which the government is not doing fast.
2) Need to eliminate some religion extremists organizations.

Srilanka has the potential to be the next Malaysia.

 

[t_for_talli]

Indian economic growth will slow to only more than 7 percent, dont ask why, check out your hindustantimes.com

Its 7.8 % this quarter not for financial year

 

[Developereo]

PPP takes into account the relative cost of living and the inflation rates of countrieswhile Nominal GDP only takes exchange rates

Living standards are measured with PPP while wealth is measured by Nominal

That's the important point.

The answer to the original question depends on the intent of the comparison. If we are comparing standard of living, then PPP is the appropriate measure, but if we are comparing economic might on the international stage, then the only thing that matters is nominal GDP.

As an international supplier, I would always prefer consumers with a higher PPP. I would rather sell 10 units at $100 each, than have to sell 100 units at $10 each. The revenue is the same, but the maintenance costs are much less.

 

[keeninterest]

Bangladesh will overtake all!

Just my gut feeling based on the posts I read.

Good to see you Sir,

lol @ the comment, though they certainly stand a good chance of bettering their counterparts on our west in times to come, a country whose nominal gdp has been riding high on high inflation numbers with little to show on real gdp numbers, the latest is the country on the west grew by 2.4% in contrast to BD's 6%.

I have a question guys.I still dont understand what`s PPP for can anyone help me on this.even though I read it many times now I`m still kinda confused

a simple example is:

a dollar in the USA will not buy as much as it will in, say, india, there are a lot of factors which help that.

now you need a measure where the two can be brought at par so that one gets a common understanding as to how much a dollar or a pound or some other currency is worth in various countries or more specifically, what is the purchasing power of the said currency in various countries.

in india's case the multiplier effect in USD terms is close to 2.7, which means a dollar in india as compared to a dollar in the US has a 2.7times the purchasing power, or in more simplified terms what 1 USD can buy in india, the same in the USA will be bought by 2.7USD or by by 2dollars and 70cents. hope this clarifies.

 

[Xracer]

if President like zulfiqar ali bhutto come again pakistan will cross all the leading economies.

 

[Xracer]

aur like zaradries

 

[sab]

GDP in nominal terms is an useless thing. For example, a same item of $40 may cost only $10 in India because of higher purchasing power of dollar in India (4 times that of USA). Now, if both the countries manufacture same number of that item, say "n", it will increase nominal gdp more in case of USA.
40n in case of USA and 10n in case of India, though both of them has produced n number of items. So it is more prudent to discount GDP with PPP while comparing GDP of different countries. India is number 4 after USA, China, Japan....

 

[ahsanraza81]

China is #1 in Asia
India @ 1 in south asia

 

[applesauce]

GDP in nominal terms is an useless thing. For example, a same item of $40 may cost only $10 in India because of higher purchasing power of dollar in India (4 times that of USA). Now, if both the countries manufacture same number of that item, say "n", it will increase nominal gdp more in case of USA.
40n in case of USA and 10n in case of India, though both of them has produced n number of items. So it is more prudent to discount GDP with PPP while comparing GDP of different countries. India is number 4 after USA, China, Japan....

the problem is a country cant/dont make everything for itself, this goes especially for India, from screws to cellphones to jet fighters india imports a lot and hence nominal is very important. this also works the other way around, the Chinese can make things for cheap(comparatively), the us, using usd's can buy a ton and sell them cheap to its own people and rise the standard of living, suddenly that same 10 dollars which as you say can only buy 10 dollars worth in the us well by shopping from china now that 10 dollars can buy 45 dollars worth.