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The ML-1 Railway: A fulcrum for global trade

nahtanbob

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The visit of the caretaker Prime Minister to China for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) forum meeting has been highly successful. One of the major achievements is the signing of the Mainline-1 (ML-1) railway project, a crucial component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The ML-1 project aims to connect Peshawar to Karachi through a 2,600-kilometer track with an estimated cost of $7 billion. Planned to be complete in 16 years, it will increase the line capacity from 34 to 134 trains each way per day, moving up to 165 kilometres per hour — twice as fast as they currently run, benefitting various industries in Pakistan, drive the next phase of CPEC projects and enhance economic cooperation between China and Pakistan.
ML-1 will make Gwadar a more appealing and efficient trade gateway for Pakistan and its neighbouring countries, poised to stimulate economic growth and generate employment opportunities, facilitate the transportation of energy resources from the Middle East and other nations to Pakistan, addressing critical energy shortages and facilitating the movement of Thar coal within the country.
For China, this will open a more direct and efficient trade route to the Arabian Sea, reducing both time and shipping costs for goods to and from western China, creating opportunities for Chinese companies and enhancing and providing China with an alternative and shorter route for importing energy resources from the Middle East.
Afghanistan, after prolonged advocacy, has finally agreed to become a partner in the CPEC. This participation holds the potential to significantly bolster Afghanistan’s economy by establishing it as a regional transit hub and promoting economic diversification. The railway project can serve as a vital transit route for Afghan goods to access international markets via Gwadar, potentially revitalising Afghanistan’s economy.
For Central Asia, this railway offers new trade routes, granting access to the Arabian Sea and diversifying trade options. The increased trade has the potential to boost economic development and diversification in the region. While India is not directly connected to the project, it could potentially access Central Asian markets through Gwadar if tensions ease and trade relations improve between the nations. The railway could provide Iran with better access to markets in China and Central Asia, enhancing trade opportunities and trade links that can contribute to economic growth and regional stability.
There is a strong possibility of extending this railway link from China to Europe through Turkey, which could yield numerous benefits for the countries along the route. This extension would enhance both regional and global trade by providing a more efficient and cost-effective trade route, fostering increased trade between Asia, Europe, and Central Asia. The result would be reduced transportation times and costs, making this route more competitive compared to other trade corridors, creating job opportunities, boosting local industries, and encouraging infrastructure investment. Additionally, Turkish and European markets would benefit from improved access to Central Asian and Chinese markets. The construction of a railway line will bring about profound impacts on the Pakistani cities along its route in terms of economic, social, and infrastructural transformations that can reshape urban and rural landscapes.
Cities situated along the route are likely to experience notable economic growth, driven by increased trade and commerce, attracting businesses, investors, and logistics companies, creating new economic opportunities, driving job creation, raising income levels, and alleviating poverty in these areas.
Moreover, the railway project would facilitate the establishment of industrial zones and logistics hubs along the route, drawing manufacturing and distribution companies. This would lead to a surge in industrial activities in nearby cities, bringing an influx of workers and encouraging urbanisation in the surrounding areas. The perspectives of countries and regions on the BRI can vary widely, depending on their specific interests and concerns. The perspective of the Middle East in relation to this railway link is notably positive. Many Middle Eastern countries view BRI as a source of significant economic opportunities. Given their strategic location as potential hubs for trade and investment, they see the initiative to boost economic growth, infrastructure development, and job creation.
The region, known for its substantial energy resources, often sees BRI projects focusing on energy infrastructure like pipelines and ports, which can help expand energy markets and diversify export routes. Additionally, the BRI is viewed as an opportunity to strengthen political and strategic ties with China, leveraging Chinese investments and cooperation for regional stability and development.
For many European countries, the BRI represents a means to enhance economic integration and trade relations with China. The development of transport and logistics infrastructure can greatly improve access to Chinese markets, making it an attractive prospect. European nations are keen on seeking investment opportunities in BRI projects, particularly in sectors such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications. Collaboration with China in research and innovation is also a priority for Europe.
By seamlessly connecting with regional and international transport systems, this initiative can serve as a catalyst for bringing much-needed financial and economic prosperity to Pakistan, effectively pulling the nation out of its current financial and economic challenges and propelling it towards a brighter and more prosperous future.

Qamar Bashir

The writer is the Former Press Secretary to the President and Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan
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Let's not get ahead of ourselves - it's good for Pakistan and that alone merits it's construction (depending on how we do it - electric, fenced, freight etc)
 
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Yup start dholki and dancing, i wonder why the word "game changer" not used again. Its that same typical Pakistani bhangra on everything new, like we did on CPEC n till today not an iota of advantage from CPEC. Only pockets of whisky farts filled and lands bought in foreign countries.
 
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It is a useless project and will line the pockets of the rulers. What's the use of another railway line when we already have an older one. Just repair it in Sindh.
 
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It is a useless project and will line the pockets of the rulers. What's the use of another railway line when we already have an older one. Just repair it in Sindh.
Build the new line (bypassing the center of most of the cities) on a 30 year BOT basis. If it’s viable, let the investors take the risk, not the people of Pakistan. Turn the existing line into a line for people to travel on like a metro. All future projects need to be shown how they will be sustainable without bailouts from the government.
 
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Oh, to ab Gwadar kay bad is truck ki batti kay peechay ham nay ab bhagna hai?
 
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Build the new line (bypassing the center of most of the cities) on a 30 year BOT basis. If it’s viable, let the investors take the risk, not the people of Pakistan. Turn the existing line into a line for people to travel on like a metro. All future projects need to be shown how they will be sustainable without bailouts from the government.
Was there an economic feasibility study for this project or is it based on If you build it, they will come theory? What is there to move with a $7 billion investment in that area?
 
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Build the new line (bypassing the center of most of the cities) on a 30 year BOT basis. If it’s viable, let the investors take the risk, not the people of Pakistan. Turn the existing line into a line for people to travel on like a metro. All future projects need to be shown how they will be sustainable without bailouts from the government.
try selling that to Chinese investors :enjoy:
 
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try selling that to Chinese investors :enjoy:
China’s looking to go big with the Afghans, so it may not be as impractical as it sounds, especially if ROI will come from transporting minerals, all the way to Gwadar. If some of the mines are in southern Afghanistan, the Quetta-Sukkur rail line could be upgraded as well.


China wants to spend $100 billion to renew BRI, this project could work, but Pakistan has to negotiate hard this time. Shared risk shared reward.

 
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China’s looking to go big with the Afghans, so it may not be as impractical as it sounds, especially if ROI will come from transporting minerals.


China wants to spend $100 billion to renew BRI, this project could work, but Pakistan has to negotiate hard this time. Shared risk shared reward.

The cost of ML-1 at $7 billion with semi-high speed of 165 km/h seems quite reasonable even with Chinese undertaking. For comparison, a similar length of 1600 km high speed rail at speed just around 200km/h from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam is estimated to cost at least $65 billions, and this HSR is plan to be finished building by Japan not until year 2050. But, I don't know why it takes 16 years to build ML-1 railway, a bit long.
 
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The cost of ML-1 at $7 billion with semi-high speed of 165 km/h seems rather reasonable even with Chinese undertaking. For comparison, a similar length of 1600 km high speed rail at speed just around 250km/h from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam is estimated to cost at least $65 billions, and this HSR is plan to be finished building by Japan not until year 2050. But, I don't know why it takes 16 years to build ML-1 railway, a bit long.
165 kmph is perfect cost-benefit speed for a country lien Pakistan where ability to pay for higher speed trickers is not possible, unlike Indonesia.

I also can’t understand why it would take 16 years, especially for China to build. It’s mostly flat track. Unless this project is being managed by the people from California HSR or the team that was to manage Britain’s HS2, this could be down in under 5 years. The terrain is mostly flat.

Also it would be better if the line is a new line (primarily for freight and 165 kmph passenger rail), and not an upgrade of the existing alignment, as it would allow the old lien to run as a commuter rail service, and allow the nation to preserve a rail line for slower intercity trains and commuter trains (like a metro train).

If the line is build over 5 years on a sustainable basis, then pay back of the Lon could be done over a 16 year basis. That could be where the 16 year figure came from. 6 years to build, during which payment is not required, and then paying back over 10 years.
 
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China’s looking to go big with the Afghans, so it may not be as impractical as it sounds, especially if ROI will come from transporting minerals, all the way to Gwadar. If some of the mines are in southern Afghanistan, the Quetta-Sukkur rail line could be upgraded as well.


China wants to spend $100 billion to renew BRI, this project could work, but Pakistan has to negotiate hard this time. Shared risk shared reward.


the basic assumption is that there is more economic output due to these power generation, railroads, highways and ports. In case of Pakistan due to illiterate population and disputes with neighboring countries none of this has panned out in the past. If the current trends continue It won't in the future.

You want China to double down. That is another way of saying your initial bet failed. You are telling it was riskier than your initial investment. No brownie points for guessing who is the shouldering the risk and who should be rewarded more ?
 
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the basic assumption is that there is more economic output due to these power generation, railroads, highways and ports. In case of Pakistan due to illiterate population and disputes with neighboring countries none of this has panned out in the past. If the current trends continue It won't in the future.

You want China to double down. That is another way of saying your initial bet failed. You are telling it was riskier than your initial investment. No brownie points for guessing who is the shouldering the risk and who should be rewarded more ?
I’m saying even if the Pakistani companies are worthless at increasing exports, trans-shipment of raw afghan minerals to Gwadar (or Karachi) could fund this rail project on a sustainable basis over a long enough period of time. If Pakistan gets its act together, it could ship domestic products via rail and off the roads, and make this project viable on its own. $7 billion is a large amount of money, but not in the grand scheme of things, if done as part of a long term plan with other industries growing.
 
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