The ML-1 Railway: A fulcrum for global trade

[nahtanbob]

I’m saying even if the Pakistani companies are worthless at increasing exports, trans-shipment of raw afghan minerals to Gwadar (or Karachi) could fund this rail project on a sustainable basis over a long enough period of time. If Pakistan gets its act together, it could ship domestic products via rail and off the roads, and make this project viable on its own. $7 billion is a large amount of money, but not in the grand scheme of things, if done as part of a long term plan with other industries growing.

Except ML1 does not go to Afghanistan. Someone has to invest in the railway links from ML1 to Afghan mines.

$7 billion is not a huge sum of money. It is the ability and the intent to generate economic activity. If the objective of the new economic activity is to prop up Pakistani military coffers the game is already over before it started

 

[etylo]

165 kmph is perfect cost-benefit speed for a country lien Pakistan where ability to pay for higher speed trickers is not possible, unlike Indonesia.

I also can’t understand why it would take 16 years, especially for China to build. It’s mostly flat track. Unless this project is being managed by the people from California HSR or the team that was to manage Britain’s HS2, this could be down in under 5 years. The terrain is mostly flat.

Also it would be better if the line is a new line (primarily for freight and 165 kmph passenger rail), and not an upgrade of the existing alignment, as it would allow the old lien to run as a commuter rail service, and allow the nation to preserve a rail line for slower intercity trains and commuter trains (like a metro train).

If the line is build over 5 years on a sustainable basis, then pay back of the Lon could be done over a 16 year basis. That could be where the 16 year figure came from. 6 years to build, during which payment is not required, and then paying back over 10 years.

Yes, there might be some mis-info or details not explained on the 16 years to complete. Most Chinese HSR by themselves don't make profits either, the tickets on HSR are subsidized by the gov so Chinese citizens can easily afford HSR fares. But, HSR brings many national benefits esp economic developments and people mobilities along the HSR line. I think Pakistan can start building HSR when its economy has expanded greatly and its GDP is at least say over $1 trillions like Indonesia's.

 

[FuturePAF]

Except ML1 does not go to Afghanistan. Someone has to invest in the railway links from ML1 to Afghan mines.

$7 billion is not a huge sum of money. It is the ability and the intent to generate economic activity. If the objective of the new economic activity is to prop up Pakistani military coffers the game is already over before it started

ML-1 goes to just past Peshawar, it can connect to Afghanistan from there. The Central Asians (particularly Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan) along with the Afghans plan to invest $5 billion to build the trans-afghan railway. The military knows it can’t raise its budget unless the economy grows, if it want the economy to achieve sustainability. Let’s see what happens.

Yes, there might be some miss-info or details not explained on the 16 years to complete. Most Chinese HSR by themselves don't make profits either, the tickets on HSR are subsidized by the gov so Chinese citizens can easily afford HSR fares. But, HSR brings many national benefits esp economic developments and people mobilities along the HSR line. I think Pakistan can start building HSR when its economy has expanded greatly and its GDP is at least say over $1 trillions like Indonesia's.

Exactly, if the economy allows, once it’s that large, HSR can be considered. But first we need to reach that $1 trillion ASAP.

 

[maithil]

Except ML1 does not go to Afghanistan. Someone has to invest in the railway links from ML1 to Afghan mines.

$7 billion is not a huge sum of money. It is the ability and the intent to generate economic activity. If the objective of the new economic activity is to prop up Pakistani military coffers the game is already over before it started

Financial viability seems to be based on the hope that Xhina will start importing billions of dollars worth Afghan minerals via this railway. We heard similar theories during " CPEC Gamechanger " years.

 

[khansaheeb]

Once the China-Pakistan rail is completed, inshallah , I will retire from PDF and will rest in peace with a smile, knowing I have done my duty to my people and country. Pakistan Zindabad !

 

[Cheepek]

"Fulcrum for global trade"

 

[Cheepek]

Btw, as part of cost cutting rail speed is likely to be cut from 160kmph to 120kmph

ML-I project cost likely to be cut | The Express Tribune

Pakistan, China may reduce cost by $3.2b to make it commercially viable project

tribune.com.pk

 

[imadul]

Successful completion of ML-1
Demise of NLC.

 

[Olympus81]

ML-1 is a good project that will help increase north south connectivity within Pakistan and connect to China in the north and west to Afghanistan and Iran.