The misconception of China's Foreign Policy

[Genesis]

A lot of people be it here or on other sites have been saying China would be foolish to think America won't get involved in a China Asian war...

And they are right.


But it is they that are foolish, China fully expects an American response if it were to happen under current conditions. That is exactly why there is peace in Asia and China mostly only uses coast guards for a few demonstrations here and there.


China is waiting and building up strength, but also formulating strategy. A lot of resources goes int researching strategies of the past, be it European or Asian. One of the key worries is a misjudgement of the situation.


China is waiting for an opportunity where American cannot, not won't intervene. Is that possible? America is being pulled six ways in the morning and ten at night, it's a man with twenty wives and at least thirteen of them are the jealous type and another four having an affair and the rest too long into the relationship and just not that into you anymore.


At some point some other part of the world will flash and America will get involved, now China won't do anything pre-2025 most likely, not before the actual combat ready of our first modern blue water navy, but anything after that is hard to say. While not definite, but it is what it is.

Now who here thinks America won't be involved in something insane and stupid in 2025, or just getting out of something?


P.S. if you got a problem with this thread in terms of "advocating" a war, please refer to my thread here.

I noticed something strange in this forum

 

[xunzi]

I personally believe the US will involve in a limited scale war but not full scale war for obvious reasons. American will not justify putting their life at risk for a foreign country. Nobody does that. Everyone is for themselves. Even in WWII, the US only involved when they felt confident that they would win the war with the Allied which comprised of global superpowers Soviet Union and British Empire. Not to mention China and France. This was in WWII when nuclear is new to the game. Today with great powers' arming themselves with destructive weapons, it is not easy for the US to pick side without risking everything.

 

[Srinivas]

Chinese foreign policy is an ambiguity and clue less.

1) Chinese outrageous claims: The claim of almost entire SCS that too after signing UNCLOS is the main draw back in Chinese foreign policy. This claim not only made Chinese isolated in South East Asia but also made the nations around it to look for USA's security umbrella.

Now that Philippines is signing an agreement with USA. And USA is lifting the arms embargo on Vietnam and Myanmar. The only nations which are left with China are N.Korea and Pakistan. Even Pakistan will become pro USA based on the situation of the country.

This claim dealt a death blow to chinese and pictured chinese as a resource hungry and greedy.

2) Frequent bullying of small Island nations: If Chinese want to occupy the Islands and foreign territories they should have done it in swift moves. But through out the last decade China resorted to some "Street Fight techniques" which made China unpopular.

One thing Chinese are forgetting here is "No nation will surrender its own territory just because some Chinese showed some maps of some 40 year or 50 year dynasty, todays nations are completely different from the Kingdoms of the past, and Yuan Dynasty is not Chinese but Mongolian".

"Chinese may have some numerical superiority and economy on their side but they are no match for two or three giants when they attack simultaneously on both sides".

3) Chinese CCP regime : This regime is unpopular and is seen as Human right abuser.

4) Chinese GDP : Chinese GDP numbers are unclear and hugely speculative.

5) Time line: Chinese are loosing the competitive edge in manufacturing because of rising wages and aging population. Within a decade in Asia there will be counter forces that can effectively nullify Chinese threat. By 2025 or 2030 Asia will have two or three emerging power houses both economically and militarily apart from China.

USA is not going down, US MNC's still rule the world and their wealth is distributed throughout the world.

Last point ...... Why Chinese need other territories and seas??

They have a booming economy and huge territory, CCP has no answer to this question and Chinese people can never question CCP.

(Do not tell me some hans went to some islands for herbs and so those Islands belong to Chinese)

Tibet and Xinjinag are like Vassal states they are never a part of Chinese empire,, Tibet is an autonomous region, Based on that Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh are utter rubbish.

 

[xunzi]

Chinese foreign policy is an ambiguity and clue less.

1) Chinese outrageous claims: The claim of almost entire SCS that too after signing UNCLOS is the main draw back in Chinese foreign policy. This claim not only made Chinese isolated in South East Asia but also made the nations around it to look for USA's security umbrella.

Now that Philippines is signing an agreement with USA. And USA is lifting the arms embargo on Vietnam and Myanmar. The only nations which are left with China are N.Korea and Pakistan. Even Pakistan will become pro USA based on the situation of the country.

This claim dealt a death blow to chinese and pictured chinese as a resource hungry and greedy.

2) Frequent bullying of small Island nations: If Chinese want to occupy the Islands and foreign territories they should have done it in a swift moves. But through out the last decade China resorted to some "Street Fight techniques" which made China unpopular.

One thing Chinese are forgetting here is "No nation will surrender its own territory just because some Chinese showed some maps of some 40 year or 50 year dynasty, todays nations are completely different from the Kingdoms of the past, and Yuan Dynasty is not Chinese but Mongolian".

"Chinese may have some numerical superiority and economy on their side but they are no match for two or three giants when they attack simultaneously on both sides".

3) Chinese CCP regime : This regime is unpopular and is seen as Human right abuser.

4) Chinese GDP : Chinese GDP numbers are unclear and hugely speculative.

5) Time line: Chinese are loosing the competitive edge in manufacturing because of rising wages and aging population. Within a decade in Asia there will be counter forces that can effectively nullify Chinese threat. By 2025 or 2030 Asia will have two or three emerging power houses both economically and militarily apart from China.

USA is not going down, US MNC's still rule the world and their wealth is distributed throughout the world.

Last point ...... Why Chinese need other territories and seas??

They have a booming economy and huge territory, CCP has no answer to this question and Chinese people can never question CCP.

(Do not tell me some hans went to some islands for herbs and so those Islands belong to Chinese)

Tibet and Xinjinag are like Vassal states they are never a part of Chinese empire,, Tibet is an autonomous region, Based on that Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh are utter rubbish.

The point is simple. We are not easy to predict. We don't grow up in this dangerous environment and being sandwiched by two superpowers after WWII (USA and SU) without being clever in our strategic approach. When you say China have no friend. I ask why do we need friend. When you say China is isolated. I ask why everyone is a major business partner with us. When you say the world hate us. I ask why developing nations look up to us to fight for their rights and place within a global community. When you say we are the abuser of Human Rights. I ask why we get voted in to the UN Human Rights council. LOL

Like I always said to folks, "Grow some ball, man" if you want to see our foreign policy changes toward any particular country. You must first show your action towards us before we can take you serious.

 

[Srinivas]

The point is simple. We are not easy to predict. We don't grow up in this dangerous environment and being sandwiched by two superpowers after WWII (USA and SU) without being clever in our strategic approach.

You are talking about a China which is poor and isolated from the rest of the world which not pose any threat that cold war era.

When you say China have no friend. I ask why do we need friend.

Did I say China need friend ??
This thread is about Foreign policy and Diplomacy.

When you say China is isolated. I ask why everyone is a major business partner with us.

Business interests are different from strategic interests.

When you say the world hate us. I ask why developing nations look up to us to fight for their rights and place within a global community. When you say we are the abuser of Human Rights. I ask why we get voted in to the UN Human Rights council. LOL

Absurd!!

Like I always said to folks, "Grow some ball, man" if you want to see our foreign policy changes toward any particular country. You must first show your action towards us before we can take you serious.

As if Chinese have balls !![/quote]

 

[godofwar]

Of course when China develops its military, it will go on a few adventures like Iraq and Afghanistan.
Nobody spends that much money on military and then not use the said military.

The real question is whether US and its allies will be able to make China's losses more than its gains or not.

I guess only time will tell.

 

[xunzi]

You are talking about a China which is poor and isolated from the rest of the world which not pose any threat that cold war era.

If we are poor, why the world ask us to save the World from economic crisis? LOL

Did I say China need friend ??
This thread is about Foreign policy and Diplomacy.

You imply isolation, which is having no friend.

Business interests are different from strategic interests.

And what are those strategic interests that threaten our national interest to the point we have to rethink about our foreign policy?

As if Chinese have balls !!

I believe we have more ball than India. If we didn't have the ball, we wouldn't set our ADIZ in time of high tension. Don't you think, my friend?

 

[dray]

If this war mongering is actually a Chinese Govt. stand, then this will be the reason of their fall. History was never kind to war mongers.

 

[bolo]

You are talking about a China which is poor and isolated from the rest of the world which not pose any threat that cold war era.



Did I say China need friend ??
This thread is about Foreign policy and Diplomacy.


Business interests are different from strategic interests.



Absurd!!



As if Chinese have balls !!

[/quote]

Indian logic at its best. Hope you become military strategist for India in the distant future.

 

[Srinivas]

Indian logic at its best. Hope you become military strategist for India in the distant future.[/quote]

What use is Sun Tzu for China after seeing their policies .......

 

[terranMarine]

If this war mongering is actually a Chinese Govt. stand, then this will be the reason of their fall. History was never kind to war mongers.

DId the US fall after so many invasions the past decades?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If this war mongering is actually a Chinese Govt. stand, then this will be the reason of their fall. History was never kind to war mongers.

We haven't had any wars for over 30 years.

Our official policy is "China's peaceful rise".

However, Genesis is also correct, that things will start to change by 2025 at least.

Taiwan is the first priority of course. The Chinese Civil War needs closure, ROC is still claiming to be China, and they are not recognized as a country by any major government, or even by the UN. (They compete in international events like the Olympics under the name Chinese Taipei).

Even your own country recognizes the PRC as the sole representative of China, and does not have official diplomatic relations with the ROC (i.e. relations are conducted indirectly, without any embassies). In fact, all major counties follow this same position.

I will always hope for a peaceful reunification, but that may not be realistic.

 

[TheTruth]

If this war mongering is actually a Chinese Govt. stand, then this will be the reason of their fall. History was never kind to war mongers.

Hilarious coming from your racist, genocidal empire suffocating Northeast Indians to death. Hated by all your neighbors, hated by other Indians.

 

[Beidou2020]

Nothing will stop China.

 

[dray]

DId the US fall after so many invasions the past decades?

First, USA invaded countries far from its mainland, their enemies could barely retaliate. China is picking up fights in its neighborhood.

Second, USA never attacked well-prepared advanced military powers with abilities to cause significant damage to USA (there were 1 or 2 exceptions though, and USA got a bloody nose), China is picking up fights against some powerful enemies, and they have to suffer significant losses in case of a war.

Third, USA at least had one local ally in almost all its wars, or they managed the world opinion to show themselves as a victim, China is showing itself as an aggressor.

Fourth, USA picked up its enemies one at a time, China picking up all at once, this might result into an alliance against China.

Fifth, USA was in control of world economy and all the major world economic & political institutions, they still are, China is just a country with lots of money power.

Sixth, USA has a far bigger and far more influential "Friends List" around the world, China barely has any friends of any significance.

Hence, USA can do a lot of things and get away with it, China can't, neither China will become "USA like" in terms of the above parameters anytime soon.

This is for @Genesis also.