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THE MATH OF HOW CHINA SURPASSES USA IN 5 YEARS

I've never alleged that the PBoC doesn't control the RMB; you're the one who's putting words in my mouth.

I'm saying the RMB is no longer undervalued and is largely in line with her economic fundamentals. It's not just me saying, but reputable institutions such as IMF as well, unlike some random blog the OP is citing. Those who are expecting a miraculous appreciation of the RMB to bring forward a change in the world's largest economy position in 2025 are just delusional.

4% appreciation annually, you know how dumb that sounds to anyone's who financially literate? That's almost 10x better than putting money in the bank. Everyone would be shorting the USD right now instead of investing in bonds and equities, except for the blogger himself of course lmao.


You did when you keep declining China's manipulation of RMB in sense of "control".

In perfect market, such an undervalue/overvalue will never exist! price always depict the real value. In the controlled market such an undervalue/overvalue could happen.

And when did I ever said that RMB is undervalued/overvalued? It is you who put your words in my mouth.

Btw China current account balance has been always positive. In perfect market that will always drive RMB to appreciate

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And when did I ever said that RMB is undervalued/overvalued? It is you who put your words in my mouth.
China is tightly controlling her Yuan value and quite often devaluate it. Once China revaluate her currency her nominal GDP will increase accordingly.

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You're nitpicking on stupid petty stuff.

Just say, do you agree the RMB will appreciate 4% annually for the next 5 years?

Btw China current account balance has been always positive. In perfect market that will always drive RMB to appreciate

It's considered balance if surplus/deficits are less than 3% of GDP.

The latest report by International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan was "broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals", and the Chinese monetary authority barely intervened in the foreign exchange market.

The report, released late Friday in Washington, was a blow to the labeling of China as "a currency manipulator" by the US administration, experts said.

The value of the Chinese currency and the country's external position in 2018 were "broadly in line with the level consistent with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies," the report said, citing that China's current account surplus fell by around 1 percentage point to 0.4 percent of GDP in 2018 and is projected to remain contained at 0.5 percent of GDP in 2019.

Estimates showed that the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, has had "little FX intervention", said the report, which is based on IMF's latest Article IV consultation with China, a review of the Chinese economy that concluded on July 31.

The IMF's conclusion came in just four days after the US Treasury officially labeled China as a "currency manipulator" on Monday. The Chinese yuan weakened to beyond 7 per dollar for the first time in more than a decade earlier this week.

"The IMF conclusion is objective and reflected that the renminbi was assessed to be broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals. The result kept pace with what it said in July," said Zhang Xiaohui, a senior researcher of the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40), and former assistant governor of the PBOC.
 
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^

You're nitpicking on stupid petty stuff.

LOL. It was, but dont know now.
When I saif China OFTEN devaluate RMB doesn't mean China ALWAYS devaluate RMB every years. As you said RMB is not undervalued ANYMORE, and I havent said agree or disagree. Hope you are not too densed to grasp it :)
Perhaps it is still undervalued, as China interest currently is still undervalued RMB.

But certainly you CAN'T say that China is not manipulating RMB when she always control the RMB value according to her interest; and I dont say it is always bad, even it is one of good strategy.

Just say, do you agree the RMB will appreciate 4% annually for the next 5 years?

5 years is too short, maybe China is still in trade war with US and need to keep RMB low to overcome tarrif barrier. But it could happen if China decide to loose control on RMB in order to attract investors and boost internationalization of RMB.
 
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But it could happen if China decide to loose control on RMB in order to attract investors and boost internationalization of RMB.

It can go both ways. There may be capital outflows as well if China loosens control.

My take is this; you don't see GDP projections made by credible institutions with currency changes as a major factor, certainly not 4% a year which beat most bond returns lol.

China's nominal GDP can overtake the US', but probably around 2030 if they can keep up the growth. 2025 is just 5 years away; 5 years ago is 2015, a year before Trump got elected.
 
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Have you ever been to India? I guess your info about India from PDF online forum.:hitwall::hitwall::hitwall:
What he said is 99% true. One does not need to come to india to know india is a shxthole... Besides the quality of services, you can neither purchase the same amount of service or goods with your indian joke PPP money, being it cars, electronics, garments, footwear, and foods, etc., everything...as compared to China... Just prove me wrong if you can, by showing your price for those items...
 
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What he said is 99% true. One does not need to come to india to know india is a shxthole... Besides the quality of services, you can neither purchase the same amount of service or goods with your indian joke PPP money, being it cars, electronics, garments, footwear, and foods, etc., everything...as compared to China... Just prove me wrong if you can, by showing your price for those items...
It will be same thing if chinese wants to buy american products like iphone, tesla car, nike shoes etc.
For food, no one can beat chinese, they can eat anything and everything. I am not considering it.
 
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It will be same thing if chinese wants to buy american products like iphone, tesla car, nike shoes etc.
For food, no one can beat chinese, they can eat anything and everything. I am not considering it.
This again, proved a country like india which import literally everything can NOT use PPP, unlike here in China, 90% phones we buy here are Chinese, like Xiaomi, Huawei, Vivo, Oppo, etc... and half of our ~30 million cars sold here each year are from Chinese brands, car price are (among) the lowest in the world here in China... Nike shoes? sorry, it costs indians one month salary to buy one... lol... Eat everything?? No, no caw shxt at least...But come on, do not troll, seriously, in reality, india's purchase power is even lower than its nominal value...
 
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This again, prove a country like india which import literally everything can NOT use PPP, unlike here in China, 90% phones we buy here are Chinese, like Xiaomi, Huawei, Vivo, Oppo, etc... and half of our ~30 million cars sold here each year are from Chinese brands, car price are (among) the lowest in the world here in China... Nike shoes? sorry, it costs indians one month salary to buy one... lol... Eat everything?? No, no caw shxt at least...But come on, do not troll, seriously, in reality, india's purchase power is even lower than its nominal value...
I don't want to derail this thread. But India has also local industry for most of the products. Indian buys chinese phones because it is cheaper. If money is there, chinese will buy iphone. I see chinese people selling kidney to buy iphone.
 
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China has no doubt grown in all aspects whether its economy or military or foreign policy.

But the manipulations & artificiality & non-democratic nature behind all this cannot be brushed under the carpet.

India has all potential to match China but the democracy is a BIG HURDLE in taking big decisive steps. This one thing has made sure that India has lagged behind China.

But rest assured, democracy has its own advantages.

The pressurised & inflated Chinese balloon has a limit. All this "growth" and dreams to challenge USA will fall flat if the balloon is pricked. Better to not be manipulative & exercise force beyond a limit. It will boomerang.

India has no territorial ambitions. Never had any. China would do good to learn a thing or two from India. With India's friendship, China's potential becomes manifold. China should stop using Pak as a tool against India. It will not benefit China in the long run. At the same time, China should not use Pakistan as its stooge. Give them independence & little more importance than "tool against India". Stop supporting terrorists just because they are capable of harming India. Not only is it harmful for China but even with China's opposition tooth&nail, the terrorist was blacklisted.

Ambition is not bad. But using manipulative & pressure tactics & treating other countries as stooges, will not work for long. Being powerful momentarily is one thing. Being able to remain powerful for long time is different thing. USA has been lone power for because it could handle power.

Trying to grab everything (e.g. SCS), dominate everyone (e.g. India, Japan, Australia) or expect everyone to act like a stooge (example already mentioned), is DEFINITELY a sign of someone who can NOT handle power. Not for long for sure.
 
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I don't want to derail this thread. But India has also local industry for most of the products. Indian buys chinese phones because it is cheaper. If money is there, chinese will buy iphone. I see chinese people selling kidney to buy iphone.
I don't want to derail this thread either, there are idiots everywhere you can't imagine what's inside their brain, especially like a decade ago when apple was at its peak here, but today, not many will buy it even money is there...You must say those who use Huawei mate XX etc because money isn't there...lol...Come on, no one think about money when buying some little items like a phone... It is a slum mentality.... And you mentioned about Tesla, the model 3 starts from ~40,000 usd before subsidy, and it sold 10,000+ every months here, how about the price in india? and how many sold in india with your PPP money???:rofl::rofl::rofl:
 
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I don't want to derail this thread either, there are idiots everywhere you can't imagine what's inside their brain, especially like a decade ago when apple was at its peak here, but today, not many will buy it even money is there...You must say those who use Huawei mate XX etc because money isn't there...lol...Come on, no one think about money when buying some little items like a phone... It is a slum mentality.... And you mentioned about Tesla, the model 3 starts from ~40,000 usd before subsidy, and it sold 10,000+ every months here, how about the price in india? and how many sold in india with your PPP money???:rofl::rofl::rofl:
Sir, Are you an idiot? In china, money is equally distributed among everyone?
https://www.hindustantimes.com/busi...s entered,to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
We can't say every indian is Ambani.
 
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It can go both ways. There may be capital outflows as well if China loosens control.

Yes, could be both depend on the situation.
But if china relatively high economic growth continues, investor will be lured to invest in China or buy RMB then nett capital inflow will happen. Besides, when people believe RMB value will keep increasing during the floating regime, then they will prefer to hold RMB.

My take is this; you don't see GDP projections made by credible institutions with currency changes as a major factor, certainly not 4% a year which beat most bond returns lol.

Because it is not easy to predict currency rate in far future. Dynamics of trade and politics play roles.

China's nominal GDP can overtake the US', but probably around 2030 if they can keep up the growth. 2025 is just 5 years away; 5 years ago is 2015, a year before Trump got elected.

Most probably yes. But prediction sometime is subjective; if you believe China will leave manage floating regime and switched to free floating regime in the near future that cause RMB value increase and covid calamity hit US harder than China, then this kind of prediction is justifiable.
 
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Wealth is not equally distributed of course, but on average it seems indians can't even match 1/10 of our purchasing power if you talk about PPP...
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/stat...f-luxury-cars-sold-in-china-in-a-year.650063/

Ambani??? LMAO.... So hilarious to see so many slumdugs celebrating and cheer for some one who suck so much blood from them....And he is just a tiny fish nobody cares compared to this:
https://fortune.com/2020/08/10/fortune-global-500-china-rise-ceo-daily/
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