The J-20-engine discussion is over and other speculative topics ... to separate from the J-20-news !

[Asoka]

whoa, is that per engine cost? that's way more then the F119

Sorry, it's 1.9 million Yuan per component.

Yeah, 10 engines in 2026 is a joke. More like 1,000.

I think this production/sales estimate is done by an Intern, who don't know what she/he is doing.

Prices of forged alloy metal components for engines. A complete engine would be more.

120万 is not 120 million, it is 1.20 million Yuan or roughly 170,000 US dollar.

Thanks for the correction. I post this late at night. My brain probably was already half asleep.

I don't think this Chinese Company knows how many J-20 will be produced in the next few year. So there is no way this person, who did this sales projection table knows his company's accurate share for the WS-15 production will be even for 2021.

But 5 engines or 20% for this Company's 2020 market share for WS-15 production seems in the ball park range.

This also indicate total production for WS-15 for 2020, will be 25 engines, good enough for 12 J-20, with one spare.

This is inline with our knowledge that J-20 is still in low serial production run.

 

[Asoka]

Here some details of those superalloy components for WS-10 and WS-15:

1. WS-10 Engine K4169 Alloy Bearing Inclined Plate, dimension is 860mm x 180m M^2 mm, currently it is in serial production stage, annual demand 300 units.

2. WS-15 Engine K4169 Alloy Bearing Frame, 900mm x 180m M^2 mm, low serial production test run, possible annual demand in the future, 300 units.

3. Intriguingly, it also mentioned a Fifth Generation Aircraft Engine JG4247 Alloy Turbine Rear Box, 900mm x 120m M2 mm, research stage, future annual demand, 100 units.

Note: The Chinese designated J-20 as a 4th generation fighter, corresponds to the 5th generation of SU-57 and F-22. So a 5th Generation fighter for the Chinese, must be something one generation ahead of J-20.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Yeah, 10 engines in 2026 is a joke. More like 1,000.

Let's say if China has produced 25 WS-15 engines in 2020, which could equip for 10 J-20 aircraft fighters, while the rest of the 5 engines would be served as the backup.

After 5-6 years of flight, the engine should gradually become more mature hence the production would go up after 5-6 years.

And how can the production would still go down? This kind of information goes straight against the fundamental logic.

This report can only prove that the J-20 has started to equip with the WS-15 engine, but the exact production number remained unknown.

 

[Asoka]

More Components Details for WS-10, WS-12, and WS-15:

1. WS-10 Catapult Engine K41, K424 Alloy Deflector, typical forged maximum dimension, 400 x 150mm, forecasted annual demand 50 units.

2. WS-12 Catapult Engine Mar-m2 47, K640 Alloy Deflector, maximum forged dimension 380 x 80mm, forecasted annual demand 50 units.

3. WS-15 Engine K424, K4648 Alloy small and medium Nozzle components, maximum forged dimension 400mm x 200mm x 60 mm, forecasted annual demand 200 units.

Note: It is explicitly stated that there is a catapult version of the WS-10 and WS-12 engines. Is these two engines going to be used in the Aircrafts that will be catapulted off China’s third Aircraft Carrier, which is currently under construction?

Note: the forecasted annual demand for WS-15 K424, K4648 components is 200 Units, or 100 J-20 per year.

Note: We know China is building a third Aircraft Carrier with Electromagnetic Catapult capability, like that of the USS Ford Class Carriers. And we know Chinese Navy is developing a Carrier based 4th Generation Stealth Fighter, probably based on the J-20 fighter.

Note: So it is possible that the J-20 with WS-10 like nozzles, is probably a navalized version of the J-20 with the WS-10, WS-12 Catapult Engines, as mentioned in this report.

 

[Asoka]

Forged Nozzle Petal Components:

1. WS-10 Engine K424 Alloy Sealing plate, Adjustment plate, maximum dimension 300mm x 40mm x 1.2mm, serial production, annual demand, 300 units.

2. WS-12/13 Engine K424 Alloy Adjustment Plate, maximum dimension 300mm x 40mm x 1.2mm, annual demand 300 units.

3. WS-15 Engine JG4246A Alloy Thrust Vector Control (TVC) Nozzle Petals, each engine has 12 units, typical largest forged dimension 500mm x 40mm x 1.2mm, currently it is under testing stage, after serial production began, annual demand, 200 units.

Note: So, there is a version of the WS-15 TVC Engine, currently under testing, that has 12 Nozzle Petals.

So look for a Chinese TVC Engine with 12 nozzle petals. This could be the future serial production version of WS-15 TVC Engine, with a large production volume of 200 units per year.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If this is all from the same source with the retarded 5 WS-15s in 2026, then the whole thing is suspect.

 

[Asoka]

The New WS-15 3D TVC Engine

The New WS-15 3D TVC Engine

The New WS-15 has 12 Nozzle Petals

The New WS-15 has 12 fuel nozzles in its Annular Afterburner Flameholder

The New WS-15 under going testing and evaluation.

1. In Nov 8, 2018, a new video appeared in the Chinese internet showing a new Jet Engine with a stunning 3D Thrust Vectoring Nozzle (TVC).

2. This video did not disclosed the model name for this Engine, and this has led to many people speculating that this is the latest version of the mysterious WS-15 engine intended for the J-20 stealth fighter.

3. We can see that this very modern looking, state of the art, innovative, high quality build Engine has three layers of nozzle petals, which is unseen in any of the previous Chinese, Russian, or American engines.

4. It also has 12 Nozzle petals, capable of pivoting in 3D.

5. Furthermore, it has 12 fuel nozzles in its Annular Afterburner Flameholder. The Russian AL-31 Engine has 11, and the Chinese WS-10 has 10.

6. This innovative Engine has not been spotted in any of the J-20 stealth fighter, yet.

7. The current WS-15 engine, which has been powering the J-20, since the beginning of the test flights in Jan 2011, has 11 Nozzle petals and 11 fuel nozzles in the afterburner flameholder.

8. Although, it looks like the Russian AL-31 engine, but it has been clearly shown in more than one picture that it is a 3D TVC Engine.

9. With such innovative WS-15 3D TVC Engine in development and testing, it is no wonder that the PLAAF has decided to keep the current J-20 in low serial trial production run.

10. They are probably waiting for this new Engine for the large production serial run, in the range of 100 J-20 aircraft per year.

11. This is the video link showing the new WS-15 3D TVC Engine.

If this is all from the same source with the retarded 5 WS-15s in 2026, then the whole thing is suspect.

This 5 engine forecast from 2020-2026 is for this company's 20% market share of the WS-15 production. This new company was formed in 2006. It is not the only company which will supply the same components.

This indicate the current total production is 25 engines, which is inline with our knowledge that J-20 is is still in low serial production run.

I don't think the analyst who produced the sales forecast report knows the PLAAF High Command's plan's actual production figure for 2026. So, it is a good idea to take low number of 5 engines for 2026, with generous amount of salts.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

This 5 engine forecast from 2020-2026 is for this company's 20% market share of the WS-15 production. This new company was formed in 2006. It is not the only company which will supply the same components.

This indicate the current total production is 25 engines, which is inline with our knowledge that J-20 is is still in low serial production run.

I don't think the analyst who produced the sales forecast report knows the PLAAF High Command's plan's actual production figure for 2026. So, it is a good idea to take low number of 5 engines for 2026, with generous amount of salts.

It's even dumber than I thought. The company projects that it'll keep making 5 engines/year from now until 2026, but its share will climb from 20% to 50%. That means the total number of WS-15s being produced will go down. That "projection" is worthless. You don't need to take it with a generous amount of salt, you need to take it with a salt mine

 

[Asoka]

But it is safe to say 5 engines for this Company in 2020, is a good estimate.

 

[Figaro]

The sheer detailedness of this report question its very credibility. Typically, credible leaks come only from vague or metaphorical releases .... not highly detailed reports.

 

[Asoka]

It's even dumber than I thought. The company projects that it'll keep making 5 engines/year from now until 2026, but its share will climb from 20% to 50%. That means the total number of WS-15s being produced will go down. That "projection" is worthless. You don't need to take it with a generous amount of salt, you need to take it with a salt mine

I have already pointed that the forecast for 2020-2026 and its market share of 20-50% do not make much sense.

But is safe to say, this company is making components for WS-15, and many other Chinese Engines, and that WS-15 is now in low serial production run, not in testing/development stage.

I have already pointed that the forecast for 2020-2026 and its market share of 20-50% do not make much sense.

But is safe to say, this company is making components for WS-15, and many other Chinese Engines, and that WS-15 is now in low serial production run, not in testing/development stage.

The sheer detailedness of this report question its very credibility. Typically, credible leaks come only from vague or metaphorical releases .... not highly detailed reports.

It is not a deliberate leak. This report was quickly deleted in the company's website, and replaced with a report that do not include military engines, such as WS-10, WS-15.

But this original report was spotted by some enthusiasts and posted in a Forum.

This is one more nail into the coffin that WS-15 is still years away from flying with J-20.

I have been claiming that an early version of WS-15 has been flying with J-20, since the beginning of the testing program in Jan, 2011. And that this early WS-15 Engine with its AL-31-like nozzle has 3D TVC capability, with minimal 210Kn thrust.

 

[Deino]

...
I have been claiming that an early version of WS-15 has been flying with J-20, since the beginning of the testing program in Jan, 2011. And that this early WS-15 Engine with its AL-31-like nozzle has 3D TVC capability, with minimal 210Kn thrust.

Oh please ... not that BS again.

 

[Figaro]

Oh please ... not that BS again.

Back to 2-1/2 years ago

 

[Asoka]

Back to 2-1/2 years ago

A Wise Chinese Sage said: "You can only bring the Ox to the water hole, but you can't make it drink the water, if it doesn't want to."

That is, you can't fix stupid.

 

[lcloo]

The document that we are looking at is 公司公告 or Corporate Announcement, which is a document every public listed company is obliged to publish whenever there is an event that will affect its financial standing.

This is a strict requirement imposed by almost every Stock Exchange around the World. The purpose being to inform investors and potential investors on activities that will affect their investment.

Thus this corporate announcement should not be taken as a affirmative document when we view it with regard to military development.

The number of forged alloy component sets is an estimation as clearly printed on this document thus is not confirmed as such, and what is not stated is whether these components are for test engines or serial production engines, or for engines of certain variants as in variant-A, or B, C D etc.

The person preparing this document is from corporate finance of a public company and not a military source, thus we should reserve some doubt on its accuracy with regard to military development.