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The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

If Chinese lack ambition to become a superpower, we will (deservedly) only become super poor.

This is a sink or swim world. If you do not swim, you sink. Everyone is a shark. Eat or be eaten. I don't know why all the KMT sympathizers and right wings always look back and say "oh things are soo different now". Sharks don't look back. They don't have necks. You know who have necks? Animals who get eaten by sharks. Be the shark.

Why is the J-15 called the Flying Shark and not the Flying Unicorn of Happiness? Exactly.
 
If Chinese lack ambition to become a superpower, we will (deservedly) only become super poor.

This is a sink or swim world. If you do not swim, you sink. Everyone is a shark. Eat or be eaten. I don't know why all the KMT sympathizers and right wings always look back and say "oh things are soo different now". Sharks don't look back. They don't have necks. You know who have necks? Animals who get eaten by sharks. Be the shark.

Why is the J-15 called the Flying Shark and not the Flying Unicorn of Happiness? Exactly.

:tup:

Tranquility through absolute destructive strength.
 
Russia-China Relations and the Downing of Russia’s Jet Fighter by Turkey
US-China Conducted A "Friendly" Military Exercise Less than A Week Before the Downing of Russia's Jet Fighter by Turkey

he downing of a Russian jet fighter over Syria’s airspace was undertaken by Turkey in consultation with Washington and Brussels. Turkey did not take this decision without getting the greenlight from the Pentagon.
Is this an act of revenge against Russia for bombing the US-sponsored Islamic State in Syria?


The unspoken truth is that Russia is undermining US-NATO’s ground operations inside Syria. The latter are made up of various Al Qaeda affiliated formations which de facto constitute the foot-soldiers of the Western alliance. These ISIS and Al Nusrah rebel forces are in turn led by intelligence operatives and Western special forces, many of whom are deployed by private mercenary companies on contract to US-NATO.

The downing of Russia’s plane by Turkey is a clear act of provocation. What is its broader intent?

How will backlash at the diplomatic level? Is military escalation contemplated by Washington?

A covert war of stealth is currently unfolding which could evolve towards direct military confrontation between US-NATO and Russia.

The Role of China

From a strategic and military standpoint of view, Russia’s main ally is China, which until recently has been the object of military threats in the South China sea under Obama’s pivot to Asia.

What has been Beijing’s response to the downing of Russia’s aircraft by Turkey? What future role would China play in a scenario of military confrontation and escalation directed against the Russian Federation?

US-China Military Relations

In the course of the last few months, both the US and Britain have been playing a game of friendly diplomacy and economic cooperation with China’s president Xi Jinping.

Is the West attempting to Co-opt China? What bearing do these developments have on China and its strategic alliance with Russia?

According to US analysts, relations between the U.S. military and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are said to have “improved” in recent years “amid growing tensions between the United States and China” in the South China Sea.

The two countries have held frequent joint military exercises (theoretically limited to humanitarian assistance/disaster relief). In June 2015, a China-US army dialogue mechanism was signed with a view to “boosting army cooperation”

Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman Fan Changlong, who has just completed a visit to the US, urged Washington to reduce its military activities both in the air and in the waters of the South China Sea when meeting US government and military leaders.

Fan and US army Chief of Staff Raymond Odierno witnessed the signing of the dialogue mechanism at the National Defense University in Washington on June 15 2015.

This is the first cooperation document to be signed by the two armies in recent years.

Guan Youfei, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Ministry of National Defense, said afterward that the two armies could hold joint exercises on land next year.

Guan said the two sides discussed mutual trust mechanisms for reporting major military operations and the code of conduct on military encounters in the air and at sea, both signed last year. (China Daily, June 15, 2015, emphasis added)

In August 2015, China and Russia launched major war games entitled ‘Joint Sea 2015 II,’ described it as an “unprecedented show of military cooperation,” (See RT, August 30, 2015). The drills involved the deployment of “a total of 22 ships, 20 aircraft, 40 armored vehicles, and 500 marines from the two countries, including the Varyag missile cruiser, flagship of the Russian Pacific fleet; and the Shenyang destroyer, the Chinese flagship, participated in the active phase of the exercises”(RT, August 30, 2015)

US-China Joint Navy Exercise

The conduct of major China-Russia war games in late August did not foreclose China’s decision to the holding of military drills some three months later (November 16-21) with the United States. This time the US Navy Pacific Fleet and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted a “friendly” joint US-China military exercise off the coast of Shanghai in the East China Sea.

According to the U.S. Navy, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Stethem (DDG 63) arrived in Shanghai on the 16th of November with a mission to promote “maritime cooperation and reinforce a positive naval relationship with the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) East Sea Fleet.” (The Diplomat, November 18, 2015)

While U.S. sailors stood at attention when entering the port, around 70 Chinese sailors held up a bilingual sign that said “Welcome US Navy Destroyer USS Stethem to Shanghai.”

This was a friendly military exercise coupled with social events. The scale was by no means comparable to that of the August Sino-Russian Joint Sea 2015 II held off the coast of Vladivostok in August. Nonetheless, in the course of this 5 days mission, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Scott Swift held consultations with his Chinese counterpart commander of the China’s East Sea Fleet, Admiral Su Zhiqian:

After the port visit, the USS Stethem will hold naval drills with the People’s Liberation Army Navy, including a joint rescue operation with Chinese warships near the estuary of the Yangtze River, as well as communications exercises involving the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES).

In a bitter irony, these joint exercises took place following the dispatch of “the USS Lassen, another Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, within 12 nautical miles of China’s man-made islands”. These US maneuvers in the South China Sea were considered by Beijing as an act of provocation instigated by the US Navy.
In turn, the US has mobilized a military alliance of several Southeast Asian countries against the People’s Republic of China (PRC), not to mention the establishment of the US sponsored Republic of Korea Naval base on Jeju Island, which lies within proximity of China’s coastline. The naval base constitutes a threat to China (rather than to North Korea).

The November Sino-US military exercise in the East China Sea are part of a propaganda campaign which consists in tacitly instilling a pro-US perspective within the ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA):

“This is our second visit to China in three months,” said Lt. Erika Betancourt, Stethem’s operations officer. “The strides we have made in our partnership and operational cooperation improve both our ability to conduct exercises and our interactions at sea.” US Navy News Service, November 23, 2015)

While the November joint military exercises were largely symbolic, the important question is:

Are they indicative of an “About Turn” in Sino-US military relations– i.e. a shift from overt threats under Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” towards “military cooperation” and “dialogue”.

Defense News (November 16, 2015) intimates that a redirection of US military strategy in relation to China is unfolding: “US, Chinese Navies Train Together Despite Tensions”.

USS Stethem (image left)

The ship’s commanding officer, Harry Marsh, told reporters the visit was intended to “build mutual trust” between the two navies.

US sailors, he said, would learn about their counterparts’ “maritime experiences, so that when we operate at sea we can do it safely, and we understand what they are doing and what we do”.

The stopover comes shortly after the US sailed a warship near artificial islands being built by Beijing in the South China Sea.

Harris downplayed the friction [between the US and China]: “Countries may have some disagreements, yet our navies are able to operate safely at sea.“(Defense News)

The Role of Military Alliances

Alliances are fundamental in the history of war. The First World war was in part the result of a destabilization and shift in military alliances.

Strategic alliances are often characterized by “cross-cutting coalitions” between opposing sides which in some cases lead to destabilizing the broader structure of military alliances.

Unquestionably, Washington’s intent is to establish a “cross-cutting” relationship with the People’s Republic of China with a view to eventually undermining and destabilizing China’s alliance with Russia.

US foreign policy in relation to China could be described as a “threaten-cooperate” strategy. It’s an ambivalent relationship which involves a quid pro quo. “Pivot to Asia” versus “military cooperation”. It consists in “threatening” China with a view to forcing China to “cooperate” with the US.

Will China succumb to this diabolical agenda?

Is Washington attempting to rebuild its strategic relations with China with a view to eventually weakening and isolating Russia?

While the Chinese political leadership is divided, there is nonetheless a strong pro-American lobby in China both within the Shanghai business community, the media as well as among intellectuals in elite universities and the Beijing-based think tanks such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

Sino-US cooperation in the military sphere inevitably has a bearing on Moscow’s strategic relationship with Beijing.

The US Navy held friendly military exercises with China’s PLA Navy less than a week prior to a blatant act of military aggression against the Russian Federation, which is China’s closest ally.

In recent developments, Turkey has acknowledged in a letter addressed to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the 15 members of the UNSC that “it had shot down on an unidentified plane that violated Turkish airspace and defended its right to do so”.

While China and Russia are the core members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), they have also developed important bilateral relations in military affairs. For Moscow, the Sino-Russian military alliance is central to its ability to play a key “stabilizing role” in global politics.

The consolidated position of our countries is having a stabilizing effect on the international situation,” according to Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shogu on an official visit to Beijing in September.

“The Russian defense chief added that military cooperation remained the main basis of Russia and China’s strategic partnership” (emphasis added), following the conduct of the biggest ever joint Sino-Russian naval drill in Russia’s Far East. “By broadening their military cooperation, Russia and China will protect the security of their sovereign territories, the Russian defense chief said.” (RT, September 2, 2015)

The question is how will China respond to an act of military aggression by a NATO member State directed against the Russian Federation?

We are at a dangerous crossroads: With regard to Turkey, any act of military reprisal by Russia (which at this stage seems unlikely) could potentially lead to military action by NATO against the Russian Federation, invoking the clause of “collective security” (article 5 of the Washington Treaty). Moreover, the aggressive action by Turkey could be followed by subsequent acts of aggression and/or provocation against Russia with a view to triggering (i.e. justifying) a process of military escalation.

What position will China take when the issue of Turkey’s downing of Russia’s war plane over Syria is brought to the UN Security Council?

The position taken by China could be decisive in preventing a process of military escalation.

Escalation would consist in an enlarged US-NATO-Israel led war against the broader Middle East-Central Asian region, extending from North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean to China’s Xinjiang-Uighur Western frontier with Afghanistan and Pakistan. (see map below).

At the time of writing, no significant statement has as yet emanated from the Chinese government.

Russia-China Relations and the Downing of Russia’s Jet Fighter by Turkey | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization
 
Russia is unlikely to escalate the conflict even after the downing of Su-24 as it is operating deep within enemy territory so to speak, and would be unwise to take on too many foes at the same time. That said, Putin can still throw a punch in a tic-for-tac fashion. As far as China is concern, the recent joint military activities with the US would not change the overall Russia-China cooperation as there is not a fundamental shift within the power structure. China would certainly be sympathetic to Russia in the downing of its jet fighter, but don't expect any strong statement from China.
 
They have enough trouble with Turkey supplying and coordinating the "moderate" terrorists , as well as trading with the "not so ok" terrorists in Syria.

Russia and other allies already foiled NATO efforts for forced regime change through imported terror and violence and is now on its way to liberate hostage taken territories and return them back to the Syrian government with the Syrian people. Its just a matter of time and funds.
If Russia falls for Turkeys provocation tactics they would give Turkey excuse to intervene in Russian efforts and affairs inside Syria.
 
I guess the US will never forget how China, along with Russia, vetoed a US-backed UN resolution for military intervention in Syria - twice. That was the strongest political expression of where China stood with respect to the Syrian crisis.

China-US naval drill is just a technical detail.

Geopolitically, the interests of Russia and China are very much aligned in Syria, as well as in most other global matters, both factually and ideationally. China also may find it another distraction from the Asia Pivot as the US gets more entangled in the post-Arab Spring Middle East.

US has to run between Kurds, Turks, Qataris, Saudis, Iranians, and Israelis, whose interests are all tangled and who are not sure about where the Obama administration really stands.

Luckily, China does not have so much baggage. Aligning with Russia is a clear statement and does not involve all the intrigues of Middle Eastern politics.

Certainly, China is not entirely isolated from the issue, but, it keeps at a safe distance, as it should be.
 
US friendly to China recently? They send destroyer within 12nm of our island. China sure send more fund and aid to Russia to make sure they destroy those Turkmen terrorist from Syria completely. China will not cooperate with US in Syria issue until they agree to our 12nm island in spratly island.
 
Why Russia needs China to buy its weapons
Despite intellectual property concerns, Russia recently agreed to sell 24 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to China - a deal worth $2 billion. But what is driving Moscow to seek deeper trade ties with Beijing? DW examines.
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The deal, announced last week by Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, makes China the first foreign contractor of the multi-role Sukhoi Su-35 (main picture), an upgraded and highly maneuverable fighter jet. While the deal has yet to be confirmed by Beijing, Russian daily newspaper Kommersantquoted Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov on November 19 as saying: "The protracted talks on Su-35 deliveries to China have ended. We have signed the contract."

The agreement reportedly includes not only the supply of 24 jets to the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) for a total of $2 billion ($83 million per unit) but also the delivery of ground support equipment and reserve aircraft engines. The first batch of the planes, with the NATO reporting name Flanker-E, is expected to be delivered next year.

A win-win situation?

Russian sales of advanced weapons to China, including modern combat aircraft, are not new. Indeed, throughout the post-Soviet period, China has been one of Russia's most important customers for arms exports. The Chinese have been purchasing systems, such as the Su-27 fighter jet, and advanced surface-to-air missiles, from Russia for over a decade.


The Su-35 is one of Russia's most advanced aircraft

"The arms relationship serves both countries, as Russia has depended on foreign sales to maintain parts of its defense industrial base, and China, with a steadily growing military budget, has been in search of advanced weapons that Western nations are unwilling to sell it," David Ochmanek, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, told DW.

What makes the latest deal particularly noteworthy, however, is that the Su-35 is one of Russia's most advanced military aircraft, and had not been previously sold to any foreign buyers. Until recently, Russia was actually quite reluctant to sell China the very most sophisticated of its weapons systems.

Russian concerns

James D. Brown, an expert on international affairs at Temple University's campus in Tokyo, explains that the reason behind this has been Moscow's concern that China would copy the technology and begin to produce its own rival weaponry which would then compete with Russian arms on world markets. "Many in the Russian defense industry had complained that this is what happened when Russia sold China the Su-27 fighter jet," said Brown.

Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher with the Arms and Military Expenditure Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), has a similar view. He told DW that while China has imported significant numbers of weapons from Russia in recent years, it has also moved towards developing and producing its own advanced weapons, in part by copying Russian and sometimes Ukrainian technology or components such as engines for combat and other aircraft.

The Chinese had been interested in purchasing the Su-35 for several years, with experts pointing to Beijing's particular interest in the aircraft's engine technology, an area in which China still lags behind.

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China has moved towards developing its own advanced weapons, in part by copying Russian technology, say experts

In fact, the Chinese have not yet been able to master key military technologies, especially regarding jet engines, as Keith Crane, a senior economist at the US-based RAND corporation, pointed out. "Despite the Chinese government's preference to purchase domestically, the PLAAF has successfully lobbied to purchase Russian aircraft because they have been superior to purely domestic models."

Given the copyright issues, there were strong indications that Russia wasn't initially willing to sell its latest Su-35 technology to China. "The argument was that China was likely to buy a small number of aircraft just to learn about the technology and copy it. Thus, any order placed must have been be profitable enough to offset the possible loss of technology," SIPRI expert Wezeman told DW.

Geopolitical factors

It is nevertheless striking that the Russians ultimately agreed to the deal, despite their intellectual property concerns. So why clinch the deal now? Wezeman points out that China will probably not get technology transfers required for a local high-level maintenance center for the aircraft, thus making it more difficult for the Chinese to copy from the 24 units.

But there are probably bigger interests at stake. It seems that Moscow has decided to set aside its previous reservations and significantly intensify its relations with China - including in the military sector - as a consequence of its currently tense relations with the West. In fact, analysts such as Moritz Rudolf argue that the Ukraine crisis and the Western embargo against Russia have served as catalysts for the completion of arms sales negotiations.

"In the past, Russia would not have sold its most modern military technology to China. One of the key reasons for the policy shift are financial constraints within Russia," Rudolf, who is a research associate at the Germany-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), told DW, adding that the S-400 missile defense systems deal, which was officially announced this April, clearly illustrates this.

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Missile technology, especially in advanced air-defense missile systems, is another area where Beijing still shows interest in Russian systems or technologies for use in Chinese-developed systems. The S-400 air-defense missile system is, next to the Su-35, the main Russian weapon that has been on the negotiating table for some time.

Closer ties

As a result of the deteriorating relations between Russia and the West, Moscow has been moving closer towards Asia, particularly Beijing. Since 2014, a number of significant economic deals have been signed with China, especially with regard to energy exports.

Political relations have become ever closer. Most symbolically, Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Moscow in May 2015 to participate in Russia's Victory Day parade, an event that was shunned by most Western leaders. In return, Russian President Vladimir Putin was present in Beijing in September 2015 to join Chinese celebrations of the 70th anniversary of victory over Japan.

The Russian leader has even begun to describe China as Russia's "natural ally" and proclaimed that relations are now at their "best in all their many centuries of history," analyst Brown told DW.

Regional concerns

China's neighbors will be concerned about the latest Sino-Russian arms deal given that the Su-35 is widely regarded as one of the best aircraft of its type in the world. "As such, it will add considerably to the current capabilities of the Chinese air force, thereby strengthening Beijing's ability to project power in the East and South China Seas," said analyst Brown.

Above all, he added, there must be concern that East Asia could slowly start to be divided into two rival camps, with the United States and allies on one side, and China and Russia on the other. Initial signs of such a division might be found in the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership, which, although including several countries in the region, excludes both China and Russia.

A difficult relationship

However, wide gaps remain between the two countries. For instance, MERICS analyst Rudolf points out that while Putin and Xi have successfully negotiated milestone projects, putting them into practice has become a key challenge in the bilateral relationship. One important example includes the $400 billion "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline project, which is not progressing as expected, said Rudolf. "In addition, key infrastructure projects such as the Altai-pipeline could fail due to financing difficulties.”

And while the countries have stepped up their security cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they still compete over influence in Central Asia. "Beijing's 'One Belt, One Road' initiative and the Russia-initiated Eurasian Economic Union are not compatible in the long term," Rudolf added.

Similar strains can be found in defense ties, where Russia has been bolstering cooperation with China's rival India, already Asia's largest weapons importer. "Whereas China was the most important client for Russia's military aircraft in the past, currently India is as important. Moscow is much more comfortable working with the Indian than with the Chinese industry for a variety of reasons, including concerns about Chinese attempts to steal Russian intellectual property," said China expert Crane.

The last major order?

Given that the Chinese have mastered most military technologies and have thus become less reliant on Russian defense imports, Ben Moores, senior defense analyst at analytics firm IHS, says he sees no real intensification of Sino-Russian military ties in the near future. "The SU-35 will probably be the last major sale from Russia to China," he told DW. "While there is a lot of talk about military co-operation, there is very little action or real substance. China doesn't need Russia as much as Russia needs China."

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China still shows interest in advanced air-defense missile systems such as the S-400

The Chinese market is still important to Russia, accounting for a quarter ($2.4 billion) of all Russian sales so far this year. But the problem for Moscow is that Beijing only buys a small amount of a weapons system and then copies it. "The one area they can't do this is engines but they are spending huge amounts to catch up. Bear in mind that China spends about $31 billion on procurement every year, so $2 billion isn't a great deal to China," said Moores.

If anything, he pointed out, Chinese imports as a percentage of all procurement spending have fallen over the longer term. "While Russian exports to China are not expected to fall in the short to medium term, I don't see China making any new large orders over the coming decade. The Su-35 is almost certainly the last one," said Moores.

It remains to be seen what impact a decline in Chinese orders would have on Russia's defense industry. For the time being, the sector has a solid backlog of orders from Russia's defense ministry.

Why Russia needs China to buy its weapons | Asia | DW.COM | 24.11.2015
 
Well, at least Russia is doing something. Honestly, I don't understand what the big fuss about Ukraine that's got Russia into this mess.
 

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