The Giants of Asia (China & India) Strive for Closer Ties

[dray]

The thing is, even if the offer was made again today, we might not take it ourselves.

There is a worry that if the border dispute between China and India is solved, that may give India some breathing room, allowing them to start applying pressure in Tibet again like in 1959. After all, they still host the Tibetan Government in Exile today.

Imagine if it was us who held the "Kashmir Government in Exile" in China? Wouldn't that worry you guys? Or the Manipur Government in Exile, etc. Seems very risky to have a competing government like that, right next door.

No need to make any such offer now, both the countries just need to lower the intensity of the border conflict.

And Dalai Lama's political activities are already contained, besides, Govt. of India doesn't actively support his movement. But please do note that the current govt. of India is far more assertive than the previous one, they are trying out different options, and if the "Peace option" fails and China keeps on stirring up the border disputes, then expect the Tibet issue to get hotter too.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But please do note that the current govt. of India is far more assertive than the previous one, they are trying out different options, and if the "Peace option" fails and China keeps on stirring up the border disputes, then expect the Tibet issue to get hotter too.

That's the thing, even if we solve the border dispute in a way that is favorable to India, how do we know India isn't going to start creating trouble in Tibet again ANYWAY, like they did in 1959?

Faith? Trust? That's not how Realpolitik works.

That would just be us throwing away all our leverage and HOPING that India doesn't cause problems.

Obviously not a good idea. Even if Modi were to keep his word, then what if Kejwiral comes in a few years and decides to overturn Modi's promise. That means we've thrown away all our cards for nothing.

 

[scorpionx]

I take your meaning sir.

However check out this article from the New York Times (American newspaper):

New York Times - World News Briefs - Dalai Lama Group Says It Got Money From C.I.A.

The Tibetan Government in Exile was hosted by India in 1959, and in this article they themselves admit they were "training volunteers" and "carrying out guerilla operations" against China in the 1960's, which is AFTER they had been hosted by India, and when they were based in India.

You can say "India has no intent" to destabilize Tibet, however even if that was true, "intentions" don't really matter in Realpolitiks. In Realpolitik what matters is capabilities and facts on the ground, and it's a fact India could cause more problems in Tibet than any other country in the world, due to the fact that they border Tibet and host the Tibetan Government in Exile.

Solving the border issue therefore would hand all the leverage back to India, which seems like a bad deal for us. It would basically give India a free hand to destabilize Tibet (IF they chose to do so), and our hand would be empty of cards.

If India intended to destabilize through armed movement it could have done it quite easily during the last fifty years, isn't it? How many armed movements you have seen by the Tibetans? The Tibetans off course got armed training from CIA through project Circus. But wonder why their training base was not in India but thousand miles away in camp Hale, Colorado? And when did CIA program stop? Just when the American policy towards China changed. It is highly unlikely that India back in the 60's, as a country much closer to the Soviet block than the American one would venture any such bold actions. It could not afford it then and with the growing military and economic prowess of the Chinese, the possibility of such support is next to impossible.

 

[luoshan]

All the best for Chindia.

 

[Srinivas]

Best wishes to India - China relation

India stands for peaceful and prosperous Asia.

 

[dray]

That's the thing, even if we solve the border dispute in a way that is favorable to India, how do we know India isn't going to start creating trouble in Tibet again ANYWAY, like they did in 1959?

Faith? Trust? That's not how Realpolitik works.

That would just be us throwing away all our leverage and HOPING that India doesn't cause problems.

Obviously not a good idea. Even if Modi were to keep his word, then what if Kejwiral comes in a few years and decides to overturn Modi's promise. That means we've thrown away all our cards for nothing.

India didn't use the Tibet card even when we have a dispute with China, so it is very unlikely that we will use it when our disputes with China are resolved. Instead, expect us to further contain Dalai Lama if our relationship with China improves.

 

[Echo_419]

That's the thing, even if we solve the border dispute in a way that is favorable to India, how do we know India isn't going to start creating trouble in Tibet again ANYWAY, like they did in 1959?

Faith? Trust? That's not how Realpolitik works.

That would just be us throwing away all our leverage and HOPING that India doesn't cause problems.

Obviously not a good idea. Even if Modi were to keep his word, then what if Kejwiral comes in a few years and decides to overturn Modi's promise. That means we've thrown away all our cards for nothing.

If we wanted to destabilize Tibet we already would have tried to do that

 

[dray]

Best wishes to India - China relation

Best wishes for India - Vietnam relation too.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The Tibetans off course got armed training from CIA through project Circus.

Yes the US admitted to trying to destabilize Tibet (a policy which they changed when America and China sided with each other in the latter stages of the Cold War), but where was the Tibetan Government in Exile based during the 1960's when they were sending militants against China? They were based in India after 1959, which borders Tibet along with Nepal. Colorado is halfway across the world.

Now let's say India has ZERO intentions to cause trouble in Tibet (something we'll never know since countries don't leave evidence for that sort of thing lying around), and they simply couldn't (or can't) control the Tibetan Government in Exile, etc. and other such assumptions, well in the end that is still just us "hoping" for India not to use the Tibetan Government in Exile as a weapon against us.

And just hoping for something like that doesn't seem like a good idea, especially not in geopolitics.

Imagine if it was China who held the Manipur Government in Exile, the Nagaland Government in Exile, and we held up our hands and said: "We can't control them, they do what they want and there is nothing we can do about it". Well even if it were true, that still doesn't help much, does it?

I do want a solution myself, since we have other areas to focus on. But the risk seems really high, and the Chinese leadership are known for being very risk averse. I don't see much progress unless a very out-of-the-box solution is found.

 

[scorpionx]

Yes the US admitted to trying to destabilize Tibet (a policy which they changed when America and China sided with each other in the latter stages of the Cold War), but where was the Tibetan Government in Exile based during the 1960's when they were sending militants against China? They were based in India after 1959, which borders Tibet along with Nepal. Colorado is halfway across the world.

Now let's say India has ZERO intentions to cause trouble in Tibet (something we'll never know since countries don't leave evidence for that sort of thing lying around), and they simply couldn't (or can't) control the Tibetan Government in Exile, etc. and other such assumptions, well in the end that is still just us "hoping" for India not to use the Tibetan Government in Exile as a weapon against us.

And just hoping for something like that doesn't seem like a good idea, especially not in geopolitics.

Imagine if it was China who held the Manipur Government in Exile, the Nagaland Government in Exile, and we held up our hands and said: "We can't control them, they do what they want and there is nothing we can do about it". Well even if it were true, that still doesn't help much, does it?

I do want a solution myself, since we have other areas to focus on. But the risk seems really high, and the Chinese leadership are known for being very risk averse. I don't see much progress unless a very out-of-the-box solution is found.

The Chinese does not have much to 'hope' actually. Your argument primarily stands on the assumption that if India withdraws all its sympathies from the Tibetan government in exile, the problem might get solved. Now, that assumption might not be correct. India, if it wants to destabilize Tibet, it can without giving legal recognition to the Dalai Lama government. And that will be more prudent way to save its face from the international wrath and accomplishing its objective silently.

You can held Manipur government in exile, Nagaland government in exile; actually you have done the same; given your civilian infrastructure on the other side of Indian Kashmir you have in fact recognized Pakistan's claim on that region, quite efficiently rejecting India's position in the dispute.But as long as you see them as part of Indian dominion, hardly any Indian will bother about the governments in exile on your soil. On the other hand, by giving stapled visas to the Indian Kashmiris you have actually overstepped a certain limit and denounced India's claim over the valley ignoring the complexities of the entire fiasco, isn't it?

On the other hand, India right from the 50's till today maintained that Tibet is an integral part of China. We regard Tibetans as Chinese. So merely giving the government in exile an sympathetic support does not make us a necessary evil that you are presuming, given your country's stand on Kashmir is unfairly biased against India.

 

[chou.wong]

All the best for Chindia.

we are developing contry !we are poor.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The Chinese does not have much to 'hope' actually. Your argument primarily stands on the assumption that if India withdraws all its sympathies from the Tibetan government in exile, the problem might get solved. Now, that assumption might not be correct. India, if it wants to destabilize Tibet, it can without giving legal recognition to the Dalai Lama government. And that will be more prudent way to save its face from the international wrath and accomplishing its objective silently.

You can held Manipur government in exile, Nagaland government in exile; actually you have done the same; given your civilian infrastructure on the other side of Indian Kashmir you have in fact recognized Pakistan's claim on that region, quite efficiently rejecting India's position in the dispute.But as long as you see them as part of Indian dominion, hardly any Indian will bother about the governments in exile on your soil. On the other hand, by giving stapled visas to the Indian Kashmiris you have actually overstepped a certain limit and denounced India's claim over the valley ignoring the complexities of the entire fiasco, isn't it?

On the other hand, India right from the 50's till today maintained that Tibet is an integral part of China. We regard Tibetans as Chinese. So merely giving the government in exile an sympathetic support does not make us a necessary evil that you are presuming, given your country's stand on Kashmir is unfairly biased against India.

Well China's stance on the India-Pakistan Kashmir dispute (and China's help to Pakistan) all came AFTER 1959 right?

I'm not saying India is a "necessary evil" or anything of the sort, in realpolitik none of that matters anyway. What matters is capability and facts on the ground.

India has the capability to cause problems in Tibet, the Tibetan Government in Exile is hosted in India. Intentions are irrelevant (and unknowable in any case).

If we solve the border issue in a way that is favorable to India, what are we going to get in return? How can we guarantee that India won't use the Tibetan Government in Exile against us again?

We regard Tibetans as Chinese.

Really?

There seem to be a lot of Tibetans in India. I haven't seen much effort to extradite any back to their land of citizenship.

In fact the Dalai Lama himself seems to be mostly used almost entirely for anti-China PR.

Do you think if you send this "Chinese" person back to China, we will execute him? Well I can say for certain that we will not, if he is found guilty of anything he'll only face jail time and not execution. For PR reasons if nothing else. Even Bo Xilai isn't facing execution.

 

[scorpionx]

India has the capability to cause problems in Tibet, the Tibetan Government in Exile is hosted in India. Intentions are irrelevant (and unknowable in any case).

I already said, if India wants Tibet to remain unrest, it can without holding Tibetan government in exile that in reality already accepted that they are part of China with greater autonomy. Not sure what makes the Chinese leadership so much anxious or cautious about it.

There seem to be a lot of Tibetans in India. I haven't seen much effort to extradite any back to their land of citizenship

When prime minister of one country with all responsibility states that Tibet is an integral part of China, it automatically implies that Tibetans living in Tibet are Chinese national. As far as Tibetan refugees in India are concerned, opportunities are given to those born between 50 to 90's to apply for Indian citizenship and the rest merely stays as just stateless. You just can not forcefully extradite International refugees, if we could, most of our illegal immigrants in Assam and Bengal would have been send to Bangladesh by now.

In fact the Dalai Lama himself seems to be mostly used almost entirely for anti-China PR.

Not really.

Chinese brothers and sisters, I assure you I have no desire to seek Tibet's separation. Nor do I have any wish to drive a wedge between the Tibetan and Chinese peoples. On the contrary my commitment has always been to find a genuine solution to the problem of Tibet that ensures the long-term interests of both Chinese and Tibetans. My primary concern, as I have repeated time and again, is to ensure the survival of the Tibetan people's distinctive culture, language and identity. As a simple monk who strives to live his daily life according to Buddhist precepts, I assure you of the sincerity of my personal motivation.

An Appeal to the Chinese People | The Office of His Holiness The Dalai Lama

 

[Srinivas]

That's the thing, even if we solve the border dispute in a way that is favorable to India, how do we know India isn't going to start creating trouble in Tibet again ANYWAY, like they did in 1959?

Faith? Trust? That's not how Realpolitik works.

That would just be us throwing away all our leverage and HOPING that India doesn't cause problems.

Obviously not a good idea. Even if Modi were to keep his word, then what if Kejwiral comes in a few years and decides to overturn Modi's promise. That means we've thrown away all our cards for nothing.

Talk about RANDI and the other moves China making in Azad Kashmir which is disputed and Indian territory !

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Talk about RANDI and the other moves China making in Azad Kashmir which is disputed and Indian territory !

Remember that Pakistan actually took India's side AGAINST China back then:

Bhutto's foreign policy legacy - DAWN.COM

"The roots of our strategic relationship with China go back to the India-China clashes in October 1959 in Ladakh. Bhutto was then leading Pakistan's delegation at the UN General Assembly. He was alarmed at President Ayub Khan's offer of joint defence to India. Bhutto felt that only those unlettered in international affairs could believe that such an offer would be accepted. In fact, it was more likely to incur the hostility of China which had so far, despite our membership of anti-communist western alliances, refrained from criticising Pakistan."

India rejected Pakistan's offer of joint-defence against China, luckily for us.

It was only after 1959 and 1962 that China and Pakistan started cooperating much more closely.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Modern day India is made by the British.Expansionism is also inherited from their former masters and embedded in their blood. I think ancient India is fine，they never invaded no one，but modern day india is not to be trusted，unless they completely abandon their british heritage.

China should never give up on AP