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The future will be decided by economic influence, not military dominance

beijingwalker

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The future will be decided by economic influence, not military dominance​

By John Menadue
Oct 5, 2023
China US Economic Risk.


America is falling into a trap. It thinks the future will be decided by military dominance, despite losing one war after another. China, on the other hand, recognises that the future will be decided by economics.

Pearls and Irritations
has posted an outstanding series of articles by Percy Allan on the so called ‘China Threat‘. He highlighted that America is deeply divided and that promoting the China threat helps unite Americans; that unlike the UK and the US, China has no imperial legacy; that unlike the Soviet Union, China is not exporting ideology; that China is concerned about managing its large ethnic and religious minorities; and that surrounded by scores of US bases, China’s military is defensive.

Most important of all Percy Allan emphasises that China’s focus is economic.

Western media including in Australia has become quite unhinged about the China threat. Our political ‘leadership’ slavishly follows Washington propaganda conducted mainly through the help of security agencies and the Five Eyes.

The China threat agencies are unwilling to stand back and consider the following.

Unlike Australia, China has land borders with fourteen countries. Protecting those borders is critical for China.

The question the anti China hawks should answer is what nations are China planning to conquer and occupy and if so, when? Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia?

While America is stitching up military alliances, China is expanding its economic alliances especially with the Global South which is more interested in development than confrontation. There is a growing and influential world beyond the Anglosphere which we cling to.

China recognises that the future rests with the BRICS which is adding new membership. While America and its closest allies waste money on a military buildup, China is investing in economic partners.

China’s strategy is to outflank America economically, technologically, and diplomatically by making it the partner of choice for third world countries by offering them infrastructure (Belt & Road Initiative), technology (Digital Silk Road) and markets (Strategic Economic Partnerships).

By contrast America offers them military pacts to confront China since it’s too protectionist to grant them free trade, too insular to encourage US investment and too self centred to offer more aid.

America is falling into a trap. It thinks the future will be decided by military dominance despite losing one war after another.

China recognises that the future will be decided by economics, which is especially important for development in the Global South.

The US is intoxicated by its grandiose belief in its own ‘exceptionalism’. It is unable and unwilling to read the signs of the time.

 
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Yeah dummy, that's why the economic gap between the USA and China is widening, and the difference is now around 10 trillion dollars. Furthermore, economic indicators suggest that the American economy will grow by nearly 6% in the third quarter.

Atlanta Fed model lifts US third quarter GDP view to 5.8%​


In b4 "Chyna n0w iS tHe wOrLd BigGeSt tRaDinG nAti0n, eXpoRt NaTioN, tTaDe SuRpLuS NaTiOn, iNdUsTriAl nAti0n, aGRicUltUrAl nAtiOn, ManUfaCtUriNg nAtiOn, shiPPinG nAtiOn, mInInG nAtiOn, f0rEigN reSeRvEs nAtiOn"
1696444887906.png


@F-22Raptor
 
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This needs to be explained to the morons sat in GHQ Rawalpindi.
 
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Economic influence will be determined to a large extent by Demographics. China is in the dividend phase of demographic transition. The downward slope of that transition which China is just leaping into will be exceedingly painful.
1.4 Billion Chinese citizens is great. 800 million people living where China is now is fine. Getting from the first scenario to the second is going to an absolute, unmitigated nightmare.

P.S. America don't look quite so smug. Being a lifeboat for a while during the post-globalized world transition will be slightly less like a Disney movie and more like something out of Lovecraft!
 
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Yeah dummy, that's why the economic gap between the USA and China is widening, and the difference is now around 10 trillion dollars. Furthermore, economic indicators suggest that the American economy will grow by nearly 6% in the third quarter.

Atlanta Fed model lifts US third quarter GDP view to 5.8%​


In b4 "Chyna n0w iS tHe wOrLd BigGeSt tRaDinG nAti0n, eXpoRt NaTioN, tTaDe SuRpLuS NaTiOn, iNdUsTriAl nAti0n, aGRicUltUrAl nAtiOn, ManUfaCtUriNg nAtiOn, shiPPinG nAtiOn, mInInG nAtiOn, f0rEigN reSeRvEs nAtiOn"
View attachment 958228

@F-22Raptor
Your economy is only on paper, bloated by stock market , speculating the currency and money printing, you are hollowing yourself out.

Countries whose largest trading partner is China or the USA. 2000 vs 2020. Source STATISTA.

countries-whose-largest-trading-partner-is-china-or-the-usa-v0-auu587cyhsy91.jpg
 
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Your economy is only on paper, bloated by stock market , speculating the currency and money printing, you are hollowing yourself out.

Countries whose largest trading partner is China or the USA. 2000 vs 2020. Source STATISTA.

countries-whose-largest-trading-partner-is-china-or-the-usa-v0-auu587cyhsy91.jpg
It will be interesting to see the same picture around 2050 when China's population starts shrinking even more rapidly than today. It will be particularly interesting from the perspective of manufacturing and exports. Don't forget that China's workforce will shrink by nearly 200 million in a very short time. China has practically reached its peak. In my opinion, China will reach its peak around 2040-2050, and then things will rapidly decline. We'll see how long communist China can continue to produce at the same rate as today. China's exports have already begun to contract, and we're not even close to 2040 yet. The image you posted will look completely different in 2050. Hence, I would say that the picture will be significantly different by 2030. Enjoy it while you can, it won't last long!
 
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It will be interesting to see the same picture around 2050 when China's population starts shrinking even more rapidly than today. It will be particularly interesting from the perspective of manufacturing and exports. Don't forget that China's workforce will shrink by nearly 200 million in a very short time. China has practically reached its peak. In my opinion, China will reach its peak around 2040-2050, and then things will rapidly decline. We'll see how long communist China can continue to produce at the same rate as today. China's exports have already begun to contract, and we're not even close to 2040 yet. The image you posted will look completely different in 2050. Hence, I would say that the picture will be significantly different by 2030. Enjoy it while you can, it won't last long!
US will become non white country by then, also interesting to see. just wait and see.
 
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US will become non white country by then, also interesting to see. just wait and see.
If this is your only lifeline (hope), then I have to tell you that you'll be disappointed.

Diversity will make the US even stronger. How will China cope with the fact that it will lose nearly 1 billion people by 2100? It will be interesting to watch the whole process will be extremely painful as they'll need to fund pensions and build many more hospitals. Who will finance it all? 80% of China's entire budget will go towards pensions and caring for the elderly, while every young Chinese person will have to take care of 7 elderly individuals.
 
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We'll see what US will become, violence, daylight robbery, homelessness, drug overdosing, LGBT... what a country.
Don't worry about the US you should be more concerned about Communist China because the demographic bomb is just beginning there...
 
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